Abstract INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) and Holt’s models to forecast the weekly COVID-19 reported cases in six units of a large hospital. METHODS: Cases reported from epidemiologic weeks (EW) 12-37 were selected as the training period, and from EW 38-41 as the test period. RESULTS: The models performed well in forecasting cases within one or two weeks following the end of the time-series, but forecasts for a more distant period were inaccurate. CONCLUSIONS: Both models offered reasonable performance in very short-term forecasts for confirmed cases of COVID-19.

Abstract INTRODUCTION: The intensification of research and innovation with the creation of networks of rapid and effective molecular tests as strategies for the end of tuberculosis are essential to avoid late diagnosis and for the eradication of the disease. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Xpert®MTB/RIF (Xpert) in the diagnosis of drug-resistant tuberculosis in reference units, in scenarios with and without subsidies, and the respective cost adjustment for today. METHODS: The analyses were performed considering as criterion of effectiveness, negative culture or clinical improvement in the sixth month of follow-up. The comparison was performed using two diagnostic strategies for the drug susceptibility test (DST), BactecTMMGITTM960 System, versus Xpert. The cost effectiveness and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated and dollar-corrected for American inflation (US$ 1.00 = R$ 5,29). RESULTS: Subsidized Xpert had the lowest cost of US$ 33.48 (R$67,52) and the highest incremental average efficiency (13.57), thus being a dominated analysis. After the inflation was calculated, the mean cost was DST-MGIT=US$ 74.85 (R$ 396,73) and Xpert = US$ 37.33 (R$197,86) with subsidies. CONCLUSIONS: The Xpert in the diagnosis of TB-DR in these reference units was cost-effective with subsidies. In the absence of a subsidy, Xpert in TB-DR is not characterized as cost effective. This factor reveals the vulnerability of countries dependent on international organizations’ subsidy policies.

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Visceral leishmaniasis has a broad worldwide distribution and constitutes a public health problem in the Northeast of Brazil. Located in this region is the state of Alagoas, where the disease is endemic in humans and where there has been a significant increase in the number of positive dogs. The objective of this study was to describe the temporal and spatial distribution of the cases of human VL in the state of Alagoas with the aim of identifying transmission risk areas in the period from 2007 to 2018. METHODS: The data available in the National Disease Notification System (SINAN-NET) were used. The Bayesian incidence rate and the Moran’s global index were calculated using the Terra View 4.2.2 program, and the maps were created using QGIS2.18.0. RESULTS: From the 102 municipalities, 68.6% (n= 70) had at least one notified case of VL in the years of study. A total of 489 cases were registered, with an average of 40.7 cases per year and an incidence rate of 1.25/100,000 inhabitants. The highest number of confirmed cases (105) occurred in 2018. Male individuals and children between 1-4 years old were the most affected, and 64% of the cases were in rural areas. Spatial dependence was detected in all the intervals except for the first triennium, and clusters were formed in the west of the state. CONCLUSIONS: Alagoas presented an accentuated geographical expansion of VL, and it is necessary to prioritize areas and increase surveillance actions and epidemiological control.

Abstract INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the performance of Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) and Holt’s models to forecast the weekly COVID-19 reported cases in six units of a large hospital. METHODS: Cases reported from epidemiologic weeks (EW) 12-37 were selected as the training period, and from EW 38-41 as the test period. RESULTS: The models performed well in forecasting cases within one or two weeks following the end of the time-series, but forecasts for a more distant period were inaccurate. CONCLUSIONS: Both models offered reasonable performance in very short-term forecasts for confirmed cases of COVID-19.

Abstract The persistence of serum-specific anti-chikungunya IgM antibodies (CHIKV-IgM) can vary after chikungunya fever (CHIK) infection. However, the factors related to its production are not yet known. We described a case series drawn up from data collected from 57 patients between 12 and 36 months after the acute phase of CHIK infection in Northeastern Brazil. CHIKV-IgM was detectable in 7/57 (12.3%) patients after 28.3 months of infection. No frequency differences in chronic musculoskeletal manifestations and underlying conditions were detected between patients with or without CHIKV-IgM. CHIKV-IgM was detected for up to 35 months in Brazilian patients after CHIK infection.

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Household crowding deserves attention when evaluating the transmission intensity of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil. We aimed to evaluate the association between household crowding and COVID-19 incidence. METHODS: Linear and Poisson regression analyses were used to assess the associations between indices of household crowding (high, average, low) and COVID-19 incidence estimates. RESULTS: Cities with a high index of household crowding were linked with a significantly higher COVID-19 incidence estimate (excess of 461 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval: 371-558 per 100,000). CONCLUSIONS: Crowding typically promotes virus transmission. Considering urban and housing structures is essential in designing mitigation strategies during a pandemic.

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), such as artemisinin-piperaquine (AP), dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP), and artemether-lumefantrine (AL), is the first-line treatment for malaria in many malaria-endemic areas. However, we lack a detailed evaluation of the cardiotoxicity of these ACTs. This study aimed to analyze the electrocardiographic effects of these three ACTs in malaria patients. METHODS: We analyzed the clinical data of 89 hospitalized patients with falciparum malaria who had received oral doses of three different ACTs. According to the ACTs administered, these patients were divided into three treatment groups: 27 treated with AP (Artequick), 31 with DP (Artekin), and 31 with AL (Coartem). Electrocardiograms and other indicators were recorded before and after the treatment. The QT interval was calculated using Fridericia’s formula (QTcF) and Bazett’s formula (QTcB). RESULTS: Both QTcF and QTcB interval prolongation occurred in all three groups. The incidence of such prolongation between the three groups was not significantly different. The incidence of both moderate and severe prolongation was not significantly different between the three groups. The ΔQTcF and ΔQTcB of the three groups were not significantly different. The intra-group comparison showed significant prolongation of QTcF after AL treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Clinically recommended doses of DP, AL, and AP may cause QT prolongation in some malaria patients but do not cause torsades de pointes ventricular tachycardia or other arrhythmias.

Abstract INTRODUCTION: We compared the hepatitis C virus (HCV) core antigen test with the HCV RNA assay to confirm anti-HCV results to determine whether the HCV core antigen test could be used as an alternative confirmatory test to the HCV RNA test. METHODS: Sera from 156 patients were analyzed for anti-HCV and HCV core antigen using a chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay (Architect i2000SR) and for HCV RNA using the artus HCV RG RT-PCR Kit (QIAGEN) in a Rotor-Gene Q instrument. RESULTS: The diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the HCV core antigen assay compared to the HCV RNA test were 77.35%, 100%, 100%, and 89.38%, respectively. HCV core antigen levels showed a good correlation with those from HCV RNA quantification (r =0.872). However, 13 samples with a viral load of less than 4000 IU/mL were negative in the HCV core antigen assay. All gray-zone reactive samples were also RNA positive and were positive on repeat testing. CONCLUSIONS: The Architect HCV core antigen assay is highly specific and has an excellent positive predictive value. At the present level of sensitivity (77%), the study is still relevant in a low-income setting in which most of the HCV-positive patients would go undiagnosed, since HCV RNA testing is not available and/or not affordable. HCV core antigen testing can also help determine the true burden of infection in a population, considering the fact that almost 50% of the anti-HCV positive cases are negative for HCV RNA.

Abstract INTRODUCTION: The association of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is a concern worldwide, and this co-infection is linked to increased lethality. The Northeast is the region that mostly reports cases of VL in Brazil. The knowledge of risk factors associated with VL/HIV co-infection and its impact on lethality is extremely important. METHODS: The present study analyzed the epidemiologic features of cases with VL/HIV co-infection in the state of Pernambuco, Northeast of Brazil, from 2014 to 2018. RESULTS: There were 858 and 11,514 reported cases of VL and HIV infection, respectively. The average incidences of VL and HIV infection were 1.82 and 24.4/100,000 inhabitants, respectively. Of all reported cases of VL, 4.9% (42/858) also had HIV infection. There was an inverse spatial association between VL and HIV infection incidences. The lethality rates of VL, HIV infection, and co-infection were 9.9%, 26.1%, and 16.6%, respectively. Most of the patients were males and lived in urban areas. The cases of VL mostly occurred in children aged below 10 years, whereas the cases of HIV infection and VL/HIV co-infection were primarily observed in adults between 20 years and 39 years old. CONCLUSIONS: We defined the profile and areas with most cases of co-infection and found that the lethality of VL with co-infection increased in the current period. These findings contribute to applying efforts with a greater focus in these identified populations to prevent future deaths.

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Ourinhos is a municipality located between the Pardo and Paranapanema rivers, and it has been characterized by the endemic transmission of schistosomiasis since 1952. We used geospatial analysis to identify areas prone to human schistosomiasis infections in Ourinhos. We studied the association between the sewage network, co-occurrence of Biomphalaria snails (identified as intermediate hosts [IHs] of Schistosoma mansoni), and autochthonous cases. METHODS: Gi spatial statistics, Ripley’s K12-function, and kernel density estimation were used to evaluate the association between schistosomiasis data reported during 2007-2016 and the occurrence of IHs during 2015-2017. These data were superimposed on the municipality sewage network data. RESULTS: We used 20 points with reported IH; they were colonized predominantly by Biomphalaria glabrata, followed by B. tenagophila and B. straminea. Based on Gi statistics, a significant cluster of autochthonous cases was superimposed on the Christoni and Água da Veada water bodies, with distances of approximately 300 m and 2200 m from the points where B. glabrata and B. straminea were present, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The residence geographical location of autochthonous cases allied with the spatial analysis of IHs and the coverage of the sewage network provide important information for the detection of human-infection areas. Our results demonstrated that the tools used for direct surveillance, control, and elimination of schistosomiasis are appropriate.