Resumo O que explica a produção legislativa dos ministérios federais no Brasil? O artigo explora a relação entre a instabilidade ministerial e o desempenho dos ministérios mensurado pela quantidade de propostas legislativas produzidas entre 1999 e 2014. Por meio de um modelo de média exponencial com regressores endógenos, argumentamos que a troca de ministros e ministras afeta negativamente a capacidade de produção legislativa das pastas. Ainda assim, o distanciamento ideológico entre os partidos do ministro e o presidente, bem como a expertise legislativa prévia dos ministros, tem impacto mais pronunciado no nível de produção de propostas legislativas dentro da agenda política do governo. Os resultados corroboram a percepção do efeito negativo da instabilidade ministerial na eficiência da concepção e da formulação de políticas públicas, contribuindo para o entendimento da produção legislativa e do desempenho burocrático do presidencialismo brasileiro.

Abstract What explains the legislative production of Brazilian ministries? The article explores the relationship between ministerial instability and the performance of ministries measured by the number of legislative proposals they produced between 1999 and 2014. Using an exponential average model with endogenous regressors, we argue that the change of ministers negatively affects the entities’ legislative production. The ideological distance between the minister’s and president’s parties and the prior legislative expertise of the ministers, have a pronounced impact on the level of legislative production on the government’s political agenda. The results corroborate the perception of the negative effect of ministerial instability on the efficiency of the conception and formulation of public policies and contribute to the understanding of legislative production and bureaucratic performance of Brazilian presidentialism.

Resumen ¿Qué explica la producción legislativa de los ministerios federales en Brasil? El artículo explora la relación entre la inestabilidad ministerial y el desempeño de los ministerios medido por el número de propuestas legislativas producidas entre 1999 y 2014. Utilizando un modelo de promedio exponencial con regresores endógenos, argumentamos que el cambio de ministros afecta negativamente la capacidad de producción legislativa de los ministerios. Aun así, la distancia ideológica entre los partidos del ministro y del presidente, así como la experiencia legislativa previa de los ministros, tienen un impacto más pronunciado en el nivel de producción de propuestas legislativas en la agenda política del gobierno. Los resultados corroboran la percepción del efecto negativo de la inestabilidad ministerial sobre la eficiencia de la concepción y formulación de políticas públicas, además de contribuir a la comprensión de la producción legislativa y desempeño burocrático del presidencialismo brasileño

The distribution of ministerial portfolios in the formation of government coalitions in Brazilian presidentialism is a crucial factor in determining the governability of the political system. Objective measurement of the relevance of ministries to political parties offers a means of shedding light on the relations between the executive and legislative branches of Brazil’s government. This research note aims to improve the empirical measurement of the relevance of Federal ministries in negotiations between presidents and political parties by including a fundamental theoretical aspect to political behavior: the media exposure of the various ministries. Given the importance of the media in shaping the political agenda and public opinion, we have expanded the theoretical conceptualization of the means to effect such measurements by adding a construct of ministerial relevance that is exogenous to the government apparatus. We have made empirical use of concepts such as the relative prestige of the various ministries and the degree of public exposure to them by quantifying the frequency of their appearances on the front pages of the three Brazilian newspapers with the largest readerships. Our results demonstrate the empirical utility and theoretical complementarity of the insertion of a variable relating to media exposure into Batista’s ministerial relevance (2017).

Abstract Many important studies associate the presidential profile of Dilma Rousseff to the loss of domestic density and reach of Brazil’s foreign policy, a perspective not yet confirmed by psychological mechanisms of leadership behavior in foreign policy. We offer a contribution by exploring the Leadership Trait Analysis framework with which personality concepts and comparisons between Brazilian presidents are examined. Our main findings reveal that Rousseff has leadership traits in close proximity to the average of Brazilian presidents, although her distinctions on “respecting constrains” and “focusing on causes” style mirror much of the impressions raised by the literature over her presidency.

Abstract: This paper analyses legislative behavior in foreign policy issues in six Latin-American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Paraguay and Peru. The following paper offers an empirical contribution to understand legislative voting in international affairs. The hypothesis of the specificity of foreign policy influencing a unified legislative behavior, contrasted with a highly polarized domestic arena, is tested. To develop this test we estimate Latina-American legislator’s ideal points in foreign policy issues, comparing ours results with studies that examine legislative behavior in domestic issues. The conclusions suggest similarity between legislative behaviors in both arenas, indicating as main explanatory factors of legislative voting in foreign policy political party’s ideology and the legislative coalition of legislator’s political party.

Resumen: Este artículo analiza el comportamiento legislativo en temas de política exterior en seis países latinoamericanos: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, México, Paraguay y Perú. El siguiente trabajo ofrece una contribución empírica para comprender cómo votan los legisladores de la región en las temáticas internacionales. Se comprueba la hipótesis sobre la especificidad de la política exterior al producir un comportamiento legislativo unificado en plenario, contrastando con una acentuada polarización en el ámbito doméstico. Para poner a prueba tal supuesto, se estiman puntos ideales de los legisladores latinoamericanos en temas de política exterior, comparándolos con estudios de la literatura que examinan el comportamiento legislativo en la política doméstica. Las conclusiones apuntan a una semejanza entre el comportamiento legislativo en ambas temáticas, indicando como principales factores explicativos del voto en la política exterior la ideología partidista y la pertenencia o no del legislador a la coalición de gobierno.

Resumo Pesquisas prévias argumentaram a mudança no posicionamento ideológico do Partido dos Trabalhadores nas últimas décadas, especialmente quando passou a assumir o governo federal. Os autores estendem essa agenda de pesquisa analisando os discursos de legisladores petistas que estiveram presentes no período em que o partido era oposição e governo em temáticas semelhantes nos mesmos períodos. Por meio do método wordscores, demonstramos a migração ideológica do PT para a direita, fortalecendo a evidência empírica do fenômeno. A análise do conteúdo substantivo dos discursos revelou a direção da mudança em assuntos como as reformas da previdência e trabalhista, educação e relações exteriores.

Abstract Previous research has argued for the shift in the ideological position of the Workers’ Party in the last decades, especially when it came to presidency. The authors extend this research agenda by analysing the speeches of PT legislators who were present during the period in which the party was opposition and government on similar themes in the same periods. Through the wordscores method, we demonstrate the ideological migration of the PT to the right, strengthening the empirical evidence of the phenomenon. Analysis of the substantive content of the speeches revealed the direction of change in issues such as pension and labour reforms, education and foreign affairs.

Resumen Investigaciones previas argumentaron el cambio en el posicionamiento ideológico del Partido de los Trabajadores en las últimas décadas, especialmente cuando pasó a asumir el gobierno federal. Los autores extienden esa agenda de investigación analizando los discursos de legisladores petistas que estuvieron presentes en el período en que el partido era oposición y gobierno en temáticas similares. Por medio del método wordscores, demostramos la migración ideológica del PT hacia la derecha, fortaleciendo la evidencia empírica del fenómeno. El análisis del contenido sustantivo de los discursos reveló la dirección del cambio en asuntos como las reformas de la previsión y el trabajo, la educación y las relaciones exteriores.

Abstract This article analyzes the legislative behavior on foreign policy issues in five countries of Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Paraguay. The hypothesis on the specificity of foreign policy is tested by producing a unified legislative behavior in the plenary, contrasting with a marked polarization within the domestic sphere. To test this hypothesis, ideal points of Latin American legislators are estimated in terms of foreign policy, as compared with legislative behavior in domestic politics. The conclusions show a similarity between the legislative behavior in both arenas, indicating as main explanatory factors of the vote in foreign policy the party’s ideology and the legislator’s belonging or not to the ruling party.

Resumen Este artículo analiza el comportamiento legislativo en temas de política exterior en cinco países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, México y Paraguay. Se somete a prueba la hipótesis sobre la especificidad de la política exterior al producir un comportamiento legislativo unificado en el Pleno, contrastando con una acentuada polarización en el ámbito doméstico. Para comprobar esta hipótesis, se estiman puntos ideales de los legisladores latinoamericanos en materia de política exterior, comparándolos con el comportamiento legislativo en la política interna. Las conclusiones muestran una semejanza en el comportamiento legislativo en ambas temáticas, siendo los principales factores explicativos del voto en la política exterior la ideología partidista y la pertenencia o no del legislador a la coalición de gobierno.

Resumo Introdução: O artigo avalia a associação entre fatores políticos e institucionais e a capacidade do presidente Lugo aprovar as suas iniciativas legislativas, desagregando a análise por temas de política doméstica e política externa. O objetivo é averiguar, no marco de um presidencialismo multipartidário, a hipótese da maior propensão do Congresso Nacional em aprovar as iniciativas presidenciais em política externa quando comparadas às de política doméstica. Materiais e Métodos: A análise empírica engloba a tramitação de todas as 839 iniciativas presidenciais realizadas entre 2008 e 2012, cujo objeto de investigação é a aprovação ou não da proposta. Resultados: Por meio de um modelo logístico, encontramos um presidente fortemente constrangido pelo Legislativo nos assuntos domésticos e outro presidente com amplas condições de aprovar a agenda de política externa. Ademais, constatamos que fatores políticos e econômicos como a aprovação popular do presidente, o desemprego e a inflação alteram a propensão da proposta legislativa presidencial ser aprovada no Legislativo. Discussão: A comprovação da tese dos dois presidentes em um presidencialismo multipartidário com baixa propensão institucional ao predomínio presidencial no processo legislativo demonstra a especificidade da política externa quando comparada à política doméstica.

Abstract Introduction The article assesses the association between political and institutional factors and the capacity of President Lugo to approve his legislative initiatives, disaggregating the analysis by themes of domestic politics and foreign policy. The objective is to investigate, within the framework of a multiparty presidentialism, the hypothesis of the higher likelihood of the National Congress to approve presidential initiatives in foreign policy when compared to those of domestic politics. Materials and Methods The empirical analysis covers all the 839 presidential initiatives carried out between 2008 and 2012. We analyse the approval or rejection of each bill. Results Through a logistic model, we found a president who is strongly constrained by the Legislative in domestic affairs and another with sufficient conditions to approve the foreign policy agenda. Besides, we find that political and economic factors such as popular approval of the president, unemployment and inflation alter the propensity of the legislative initiative of the president to be approved in the Legislative. Discussion The proof of the thesis of the two presidents in a multiparty presidentialism with a low institutional propensity to the predomination of the president in the legislative process demonstrates the specificity of foreign policy when compared to domestic politics.

This paper makes two contributions to the classical thesis in American Political Science on the existence of two presidents", as applied to the Argentine case. Analyzing rollcall votes for the recent period, we confirm the validity of the thesis in a markedly presidential and multiparty system. Furthermore, comparing international and domestic legislative topics, we analyze which factors affect the legislative support received by the president. Using robust regressions, we find that popular approval is positively associated with the level of support that the president received for domestic but not international initiatives. The use of Necessity and Urgency Decrees, the economy's performance, the ideological polarization between the parties in Congress, and the chamber in which the initiative is submitted are all variables that affect legislative support.

El presente trabajo prueba la tesis clásica de la Ciencia Política norteamericana sobre la existencia de dos presidentes en iniciativas legislativas. Analizando las votaciones nominales argentinas recientes, confirmamos la pertinencia de la tesis para sistemas presidencialistas y marcadamente multipartidarios. Luego, comparando las temáticas internacionales y domésticas, analizamos qué factores afectan el apoyo legislativo recibido por el Presidente. Encontramos que la aprobación popular está positivamente asociada al nivel de apoyo que el Presidente recibe en iniciativas domésticas y no en las internacionales, mientras que el uso de Decretos de Necesidad y Urgencia, el andar de la economía, la polarización ideológica entre los partidos en el Congreso y la Cámara en la que la iniciativa es presentada, son variables que afectan el apoyo legislativo.

Abstract Which factors determine legislative support for the foreign policy initiatives of Latin American presidents? How do political parties and politicians behave when dealing with presidential foreign policy? The issue of whether presidents exercise greater influence over foreign or domestic affairs has been extensively debated in recent years, and the evidence indicates that legislators do behave differently when dealing with foreign policy proposals. Building on this debate, we analyse legislative support for the foreign policies of 22 Latin-American presidents in eight countries from 1994 to 2014, using an original dataset in a quantile regression framework. We also use three selected cases to illustrate our evidence. Our findings are counter-intuitive and bring new elements into the debate about legislative behaviour towards foreign policy in presidential countries. Measures of a political party's ideology, the size of the governing coalition, and the effective number of parties (ENP) play important roles in levels of legislative support for presidential foreign policy agendas. Surprisingly, the popularity of presidents and the nature of their initiatives - high or low politics - do not affect these levels of support.

O artigo analisa as votações nominais de três poderes legislativos sul-americanos, Chile, Colômbia e Peru, acerca da ratificação do Tratado de Livre Comércio com os Estados Unidos. A pergunta central é: quais são os fatores determinantes do voto do legislador na aprovação do Tratado de Livre Comércio (TLC) com os Estados Unidos? Três fatores centrais emergem da literatura: (i) as relações Estados Unidos x América Latina produzem uma clivagem ideológica (direita-esquerda) entre os partidos políticos do continente; (ii) o pertencimento do legislador à coalizão de governo no poder Legislativo e (iii) os fatores sócio-econômicos dos distritos eleitorais dos legisladores. Por meio da utilização do modelo de regressão logística, apontamos que a ideologia dos legisladores peruanos explica os votos dos mesmos no TLC com os Estados Unidos, indicando que quanto mais à esquerda estiver o legislador, menor a probabilidade do mesmo aprovar o referido tratado. No caso chileno, a taxa de desemprego do distrito eleitoral do deputado possui maior capacidade explicativa, revelando que quanto maior a taxa de desemprego, menor a probabilidade de aprovação do TLC com os Estados Unidos. Já no caso do Senado colombiano, há uma forte associação entre o pertencimento do Senador à coalizão de governo e a aprovação do TLC, revelando a influência dessa variável institucional no voto do Senado colombiano. Além do pertencimento ou não à coalizão de governo, a ideologia do partido político do legislador colombiano também se apresenta como fator explicativo relevante do voto do mesmo.

This article analyzes how three South American legislatures (Chile, Colombia and Peru) voted regarding the ratification of the Free Trade Agreement with the United States. My central question is: "What are the factors that determine a legislator's vote regarding approval of the FTA with the USA? Three central hypotheses emerge from the literature: U.S./Latin America relationships produce an ideological cleavage (right -left) between the political parties of the continent, the significance of whether a legislator belongs to the governing coalition within Legislative Power and socio-economic factors linked to legislators' electoral districts. Through application of the logistic regression model, we argue that the ideology of Peruvian legislators explains how they vote regarding the FTA with the USA, indicating that the further to the left the legislator is, the lesser the probability that he will approve that treaty. In the Chilean case, unemployment rates in Chilean representatives' electoral districts demonstrated greater explanatory ability, revealing that at higher inflation rates, the lesser the probability that the FTA with the USA be approved. In the case of the Colombian senate, there is a strong association between a senator's belonging to the government coalition and FTA approval. This reveals the influence of this institutional variable over votes within the Colombian senate. Beyond belonging or not to the government coalition, the political party ideology of Colombian legislators also operates as a factor explaining voting patterns.

L'Article analyse les votes nominaux de trois Législatifs sud-américains (Chili, Colombie et Pérou)autour de la ratification du Traité de Libre Commerce avec les États-Unis. La question centrale c'est : Quels sont les facteurs déterminants du vote du législateur dans l'approbation du TLC avecles États-Unis ? Trois hypothèses centrales émergent de la littérature : les relations États-Unis avec l'Amérique Latine produisent un clivage idéologique (droite-gauche) entre les partis politiques du continent, l'appartenance du législateur à la coalition de gouvernement dans le pouvoir Législatif et les facteurs socio-économiques des districts électoraux des législateurs. En utilisant le modèle de régression logistique, nous soulignons que l'idéologie des législateurs péruviens explique leurs votesdans le TLC avec les États-Unis, ce qui indique que, le plus à gauche est le législateur, la plus petite probabilité que le traité mentionné soit approuvé. Dans le cas chilien, le taux de chômage du district électoral du député chilien a un plus grande capacité explicative, ce qui révèle que, le plus haut est letaux de chômage, la plus petite probabilité de l'approbation du TLC avec les États-Unis. Dans le cas du sénat colombien, il y a une forte association entre l'appartenance du sénateur à la coalition de gouvernement et l'approbation du TLC, révélant l'influence de cette variable institutionnelle dans le vote du Sénat colombien. En plus de l'appartenance ou non à la coalition de gouvernement, l'idéologie du parti politique du législateur colombien est présentée aussi autant qu'un facteur explicatif important de son vote.

The influence of political parties on decisions made by members of Congress is a hotly debated issue in political science. In foreign policy, which is usually considered nonpartisan, the matter is even more inconclusive. The current study analyzes all the roll-call votes taken on foreign policy issues in the 2002-2006 legislature of the Chilean Chamber of Deputies. After tracing a spatial map of foreign policy preferences among Chilean Deputies using the Nominate statistical package, we concluded that the ideology of the legislator's political party is a predictive factor for his or her foreign policy behavior. Our findings indicate that the way Chilean legislators structure their preferences on foreign policy issues does not differ significantly from the way they shape their domestic policy preferences.

L'influence des partis politiques dans les décisions des parlementaires est un thème très discuté dans les sciences politiques. Quant à la politique extérieure, couramment considérée comme étant au-dessus des partis, la question reste plus ouverte. Dans cette recherche, on examine toutes les séances de votes nominaux sur des sujets de politique extérieure de la Législature 2002-2006 de la Chambre des Députés chiliens. Après avoir établi une carte des préférences des députés chiliens en matière de politique extérieure et à l'aide du programme statistique Nominate, on conclut que l'idéologie du parti politique du législateur est un facteur prédictif de la conduite du législateur en politique extérieure. Nos résultats montrent que la façon dont les législateurs chiliens établissent leurs préférences dans les thèmes de politique extérieure ne diffère pas significativement de la façon dont ils forment leurs préférences dans la politique interne.

The aim of this article is to discuss the distribution of preferences of members of the Chilean and Argentinian Congress on foreign policy issues through the analysis of roll call votes. This goal is guided by the debate in Latin American literature concerning the decision-making process in foreign policy. The predominant argument focuses on the Executive as the principal decision-maker, disregarding the Legislative as relevant in this field. Thus, legislators would tend to abdicate from their preferences in determining foreign policy. Confronting this argument, we have many studies emphasising the importance of domestic actors in the foreign policy decision-making process. This article proposes to analyse two case studies in comparative perspective: the lower houses of the national parliaments of Argentina and Chile. The result is that the party ideology is a relevant explanatory factor of deputies’ votes. Although the argument is more evident for the Chilean case, it is possible to argue that there is a similar pattern to the structuring of deputies’ votes in the two countries, both on the domestic and on the international arena. The methodology used makes it possible to infer legislators’ preferences by means of roll call votes and of the construction of maps of deputies’ ideal points in foreign policy terms, as well as the correlation between Chilean and Argentinian parties’ ideological classifications. Votes on foreign policy questions during the 2002-2006/2007 legislatures are considered.

The aim of this article is to discuss the distribution of preferences of members of the Chilean and Argentinian Congress on foreign policy issues through the analysis of roll call votes. This goal is guided by the debate in Latin American literature concerning the decision-making process in foreign policy. The predominant argument focuses on the Executive as the principal decision-maker, disregarding the Legislative as relevant in this field. Thus, legislators would tend to abdicate from their preferences in determining foreign policy. Confronting this argument, we have many studies emphasising the importance of domestic actors in the foreign policy decision-making process. This article proposes to analyse two case studies in comparative perspective: the lower houses of the national parliaments of Argentina and Chile. The result is that the party ideology is a relevant explanatory factor of deputies' votes. Although the argument is more evident for the Chilean case, it is possible to argue that there is a similar pattern to the structuring of deputies' votes in the two countries, both on the domestic and on the international arena. The methodology used makes it possible to infer legislators' preferences by means of roll call votes and of the construction of maps of deputies' ideal points in foreign policy terms, as well as the correlation between Chilean and Argentinian parties' ideological classifications. Votes on foreign policy questions during the 2002-2006/2007 legislatures are considered.