Resumo O objetivo deste trabalho foi comparar o uso de a priori não informativas e informativas em modelos bayesianos, bem como avaliar a viabilidade da inclusão de a priori informativas na estimativa dos componentes de variância e dos valores genotípicos em programas de melhoramento de soja. Os dados fenotípicos utilizados referem-se à avaliação de 80 genótipos de soja, em dez ambientes, ao longo de três anos. Para cada safra avaliada, foram utilizadas a priori informativas e não informativas, e os parâmetros foram estimados com uso do algoritmo de amostragem de Gibbs. As estimativas dos parâmetros da safra anterior foram utilizadas como informação prévia para a próxima safra avaliada. A qualidade do ajuste foi calculada com uso do critério de informação de desvio (DIC). A acurácia seletiva apresentou maiores valores nos modelos escolhidos por meio do DIC, para ambas as safras. No entanto, os intervalos de maior densidade a posteriori são menores para todos os modelos que adotaram a priori informativas. Adicionar informações à inferência bayesiana nem sempre resulta em melhor ajuste ao modelo. bayesianos soja referemse referem se 8 ambientes anos avaliada Gibbs DIC. DIC . (DIC) safras entanto modelo (DIC

Abstract The objective of this work was to compare the use of noninformative and informative priors in Bayesian models, as well as to evaluate the viability of including informative priors in the estimation of variance components and genetic values in soybean breeding programs. The used phenotypic data refer to the evaluation of 80 soybean genotypes in ten environments over three years. For each evaluated crop year, informative and noninformative priors were used, and the parameters were estimated using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. Parameter estimates from the previous crop year were used as prior information for the next evaluated crop year. The goodness-of-fit was calculated using the deviance information criterion (DIC). Selective accuracy showed the highest values for the models chosen through DIC for both crop years. However, the intervals of the highest posterior density are narrower for all models that adopted informative priors. Adding information into Bayesian inference does not always result in a better model fitting. programs 8 years algorithm goodnessoffit goodness fit DIC. . (DIC) However fitting (DIC

ABSTRACT. Multi-trait multi-environment (MTME) models were fitted to eucalyptus breeding trials data to assess residual variance structure, genetic stability and adaptability. To do so, 215 eucalyptus clones were evaluated in a randomized complete block design with 30 replicates and one plant per plot in four environments. At 36 months of age, tree diameter at breast height (DBH) and pilodyn penetration (PP) were measured. Two MTME models were fitted, for which residuals were considered homoscedastic and heteroscedastic, with the best MTME model selected using Bayesian information criterion. The harmonic mean of the relative performance of the genotypic values (HMRPGV) was used to determine stability and adaptability. Of the two models, the heteroscedastic MTME model had better fit and provided greater accuracy. In addition, genotype-by-environment interaction was complex, and there was low genetic correlation between DBH and PP. Rank correlation between the clones selected by the MTME models was high for DBH but low for PP. The HMRPGV facilitated clone selection through simultaneous evaluation of stability, adaptability, and productivity. Thus, our results suggest that heteroscedastic MTME model / HMRPGV can be efficiently applied in the genetic evaluation and selection of eucalyptus clones. ABSTRACT Multitrait Multi trait multienvironment multi environment (MTME structure adaptability so 21 3 environments age (DBH PP (PP measured criterion (HMRPGV accuracy addition genotypebyenvironment genotype complex productivity Thus 2

Abstract This study aimed to apply selection indexes in situations in which F2 populations and their parents are evaluated simultaneously in field trials to predict population genotypic values and selecting the best populations. Fifteen F2 soybean populations were evaluated for number of days to flowering and to maturity and grain yield. The data was analyzed using restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased prediction (REML/BLUP) to obtain genotypic effects, variance components and accuracies. Four selection methods were compared: genotypic values of the F2 populations (gF2), combined index with the mean genotypic value of parents and F2 population (Ia) and two indexes that add (to gF2 and to Ia) and consider genetic variability within populations (Ib and Ic). The index Ia presented a result similar to that obtained with the gF2 selection method. Selection indexes (Ib and Ic) based on several sources of information were more efficient than selection based on gF2 values only. F yield likelihoodbest likelihood REML/BLUP REMLBLUP REML BLUP (REML/BLUP effects accuracies compared gF2, gF , (gF2) (Ia Ib Ic. Ic . method only (gF2 (gF

Abstract Genetic selection efficiency is measured by accuracy. Model selection relies on hypothesis testing with effectiveness given by statistical significance (p-value). Estimates of selection accuracy are based on variance parameters and precision. Model selection considers the amount of genetic variability and significance of effects. Questions arise as to which one to use: accuracy or p-value? We show there is a link between the two and both may be used. We derive equations for accuracy in multi-environment trials and determine numbers of repetitions and environments to reach accuracy. We propose a new methodology for accuracy classification based on p-values. This enables a better understanding of the level of accuracy being accepted when certain p-value is used. Accuracy of 90% is associated with p-value of 2%. Use of p-values up to 20% (accuracies above 50%) are acceptable to verify significance of genetic effects. Sample sizes for desired p-values are found via accuracy values.

ABSTRACT An accurate and efficient statistical method for genetic evaluation is a key requirement for progress in any breeding program. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate the performance of Frequentist and Bayesian inferences for repeated measures analysis in Jatropha curcas breeding. To this end, 730 individuals from 73 half-sib families were evaluated for grain yield trait, over six crop years. Frequentist and Bayesian analyses were made considering repeatability models with different residual variance structures. Variance components were estimated through restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Genetic values were predicted through best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) and estimated through MCMC. Variance components and genetic and non-genetic parameters estimated by the Frequentist inference presented values similar to those estimated by the Bayesian inference. The selective accuracy presented high magnitude (0.84) by the Frequentist and Bayesian inferences, indicating high reliability. Confidence and highest posterior density (HPD) intervals were similar for the genetic parameters, however the HPD intervals range was slightly short. This study highlighted the importance of testing the residual variance structure and pointed out that the Frequentist and Bayesian inferences presented similar results when using non-informative prior. Then, both inferences can be efficiently applied in Jatropha curcas breeding.

ABSTRACT Forest plantations are strong allies in preserving natural resources, providing social and economic benefits. The plantations carried out in the coming years will be vital to meet the growing demand for forest products. To ensure the continuity of genetic progress and the good results achieved with the improvement of forest species, statistical methods that accurately selects superior genotypes are desirable. Multi-trait multi-environment trials are preferred over single-trait single-environment trials, since they can exploit the covariance between traits and environments, increasing the analysis’s prediction power. The Bayesian multi-trait multi-environments approach (BMTME) combines the cited advantages with the parsimony of Bayesian statistics promoting a more informative data analysis. Thus, the aims of this study were to estimate genetic parameters, evaluate genetic variability, and select eucalyptus clones through BMTME models. To this end, a data set with 215 eucalyptus clones evaluated in four environments for diameter at breast height and Pilodyn penetration was used. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm was applied to estimate the variance components and genetic parameters and to predict the genotypic values. The Smith-Hazel index was used to simultaneously achieve gains with selection for both traits. The BMTME approach provided high accuracies, being a good strategy to the evaluation of multiple environmental trials of Eucalyptus for breeding purposes.

ABSTRACT: The Fisher’s infinitesimal model is traditionally used in quantitative genetics and genomic selection, and it attributes most genetic variance to additive variance. Recently, the dominance maximization model was proposed and it prioritizes the dominance variance based on alternative parameterizations. In this model, the additive effects at the locus level are introduced into the model after the dominance variance is maximized. In this study, the new parameterizations of additive and dominance effects on quantitative genetics and genomic selection were evaluated and compared with the parameterizations traditionally applied using the genomic best linear unbiased prediction method. As the parametric relative magnitude of the additive and dominance effects vary with allelic frequencies of populations, we considered different minor allele frequencies to compare the relative magnitudes. We also proposed and evaluated two indices that combine the additive and dominance variances estimated by both models. The dominance maximization model, along with the two indices, offers alternatives to improve the estimates of additive and dominance variances and their respective proportions and can be successfully used in genetic evaluation.

ABSTRACT: The principal component regression (PCR) and the independent component regression (ICR) are dimensionality reduction methods and extremely important in genomic prediction. These methods require the choice of the number of components to be inserted into the model. For PCR, there are formal criteria; however, for ICR, the adopted criterion chooses the number of independent components (ICs) associated to greater accuracy and requires high computational time. In this study, seven criteria based on the number of principal components (PCs) and methods of variable selection to guide this choice in ICR are proposed and evaluated in simulated and real data. For both datasets, the most efficient criterion and that drastically reduced computational time determined that the number of ICs should be equal to the number of PCs to reach a higher accuracy value. In addition, the criteria did not recover the simulated heritability and generated biased genomic values.

RESUMO A técnica de enxertia de topo pode possibilitar o florescimento precoce e, consequentemente, acelerar a autopolinização no melhoramento de Eucalyptus, reduzindo o período de cada geração. O objetivo deste estudo é estabelecer uma metodologia para enxertia de topo, aplicando o regulador de crescimento paclobutrazol em genótipos de Eucalyptus autopolinizados, para induzir o florescimento precoce e acelerar estratégias que envolvam a produção de linhagens. Foram realizados 448 enxertos de topo de sete genótipos (três híbridos de Eucalyptus urophylla × Eucalyptus grandis, um de Eucalyptus urophylla e três de Eucalyptus grandis) em dois períodos do ano: julho e outubro. As amostras de enxertia de topo foram avaliadas quanto à indução floral e o desenvolvimento do enxerto em intervalos de três meses. Foi realizado um teste t com nível de significância de 5% para o erro tipo I para comparar a relevância da aplicação de paclobutrazol e um modelo fixo também foi usado para analisar a significância entre os tratamentos. A floração mais rápida foi observada após três meses de aplicação da metodologia de enxertia. Após dois anos, as enxertias de topo realizadas em outubro apresentaram maior produção de botões florais e frutos. A enxertia de topo afetou a indução de flores de Eucalyptus autopolinizadas devido a ter produzido botões florais suficientes para realizar o próximo ciclo de autopolinização em alguns genótipos. A eficácia das enxertias de topo autopolinizadas variou com o genótipo utilizado como copa. O paclobutrazol melhorou a floração das amostras de enxerto de topo. A metodologia estabelecida neste trabalho permite acelerar as estratégias de autopolinização em Eucalyptus, que é uma cultura industrial globalmente importante.

ABSTRACT The top grafting technique can make early flowering possible and consequently accelerate self-pollination in Eucalyptus breeding, reducing the period of each generation. This study aims to establish a methodology to top graft by applying the growth regulator paclobutrazol in self-pollinated Eucalyptus genotypes to induce early flowering and accelerate inbred line strategies. A total of 448 top grafts of seven genotypes (three Eucalyptus urophylla × Eucalyptus grandis hybrids, one Eucalyptus urophylla, and three Eucalyptus grandis) were performed in two periods of the year: July and October. The top grafting samples were evaluated concerning flower induction and graft development at three-month intervals. A t-test was performed with a 5% significance level for type I error to compare the relevance of paclobutrazol application. A fixed model was also used to analyze the significance of the treatments. The fastest blooming occurred after three months of applying the graft methodology. After two years, the top graftings performed in October presented higher flower bud and fruit production. The top grafting affected the induction of self-pollinated Eucalyptus flowers with enough flower buds produced to follow the next cycle of self-pollination in some genotypes. The effectiveness of self-pollinated top graftings varied with the genotype used as the scion. The paclobutrazol improved the flowering of the top grafting samples. The methodology established in this work allows accelerating self-pollination strategies in the globally important industrial crop Eucalyptus.

ABSTRACT: The development of efficient methods for genome–wide association studies (GWAS) between quantitative trait loci (QTL) and genetic values is extremely important to animal and plant breeding programs. Bayesian approaches that aim to select regions of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) proved to be efficient, indicating genes with important effects. Among the selection criteria for SNPs or regions, selection criterion by percentage of variance can be explained by genomic regions (%var), selection of tag SNPs, and selection based on the window posterior probability of association (WPPA). To also detect potentially associated regions, we proposed measuring posterior probability of the interval PPint), which aims to select regions based on the markers of greatest effects. Therefore, the objective of this work was to evaluate these approaches, in terms of efficiency in selecting and identifying markers or regions located within or close to genes associated with traits. This study also aimed to compare these methodologies with single–marker analyses. To accomplish this, simulated data were used in six scenarios, with SNPs allocated in non–overlapping genomic regions. Considering traits with oligogenic inheritance, WPPA criterion followed by %var and PPint criteria were shown to be superior, presenting higher values of detection power, capturing higher percentages of genetic variance and larger areas. For traits with polygenic inheritance, PPint and WPPA criteria were considered superior. Single–marker analyses identified SNPs associated only in oligogenic inheritance scenarios and was lower than the other criteria.

Abstract Multiple-trait best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) is generally the most appropriate method to predict genetic values because it considers the genetic and residual correlations among traits and leads to higher selective accuracy. Thus, the aim of the present study was to analyze the interrelationships among traits related to cotton fiber length through path analysis under multiple-trait BLUP. To that end, 36 elite lines were evaluated in three envi ronments and phenotyped for fiber quality and agronomic traits. Variance components were estimated via residual maximum likelihood (REML). The genetic correlation coefficients among traits were obtained through the mixed model output, and a correlation network was constructed to graphically express these results. Subsequently, path analysis was performed considering fiber length as the main dependent variable. Genetic parameters indicate that the phenotypic variance for most traits is mainly composed of residual effects, which reinforces the need for more accurate statistical methods, such as multiple-trait BLUP. The results for genetic correlations and path analysis reveal the difficulty of selection based on important fiber quality traits, especially fiber length, since most traits show a low cause-and-effect relationship, while other important traits have an undesirable cause-and-effect relationship. Path analysis under multiple-trait BLUP proved to be suitable and useful for studying interrelationships among traits related to cotton fiber length.

Resumen La mejor predicción lineal insesgada de rasgos múltiples (BLUP) es, en general, el método más apropiado para predecir valores genéticos porque considera las correlaciones genéticas y residuales entre rasgos y conducta con mayor precisión selectiva. Por lo tanto, el presente estudio tuvo como objetivo estudiar las interrelaciones entre los rasgos relacio nados con la longitud de la fibra de algodón a través del análisis de ruta en BLUP de rasgos múltiples. Con este fin, se evaluaron treinta y seis líneas élite en tres ambientes y se fenotipificaron para muchos rasgos relacionados con la calidad de la fibra y los rasgos agronómicos. Los componentes de la varianza se estimaron mediante la máxima verosimilitud residual (REML). Los coeficientes de correlación genética entre rasgos se obtuvieron a través de la salida del modelo mixto, y para expresar gráficamente estos resultados se construyó una red de correlación. Posteriormente, realizamos el análisis de ruta considerando la longitud de la fibra como variable dependiente principal. Los parámetros genéticos indican que la variación fenotípica para la mayoría de los rasgos se compone principalmente de efectos residuales, lo que refuerza la necesidad de utilizar métodos estadísticos más precisos, como BLUP de rasgos múltiples. Los resultados encontrados para las correlaciones genéticas y el análisis de ruta revelan la dificultad de la selección basada en rasgos importantes de la calidad de la fibra, especialmente la longitud de la fibra, ya que la mayoría de los rasgos muestran una relación de causa y efecto muy baja, y otros rasgos importantes presentan una relación de causa y efecto no deseada. El análisis de ruta en BLUP de rasgos múltiples resultó ser adecuado y útil para el estudio de las interrelaciones entre los rasgos relacio nados con la longitud de la fibra de algodón.

Abstract The genotype × environment (G×E) interaction plays an essential role in phenotypic expression and can lead to difficulties in genotypes recommendation. Thus, the objectives of this study were: i) propose the Multi-Environment Index Based on Factor Analysis and Ideotype-Design/Markov Chain Monte Carlo (FAI/MCMC index), and ii) apply it for soybean genotypes recommendation. To this end, a data set with 30 soybean genotypes evaluated in 10 environments for grain yield trait was used. Variance components, genetic parameters and genetic values were estimated through MCMC algorithm. Environmental stratification was conducted by factor analyses and the selection of soybean genotypes was performed using the FAI/MCMC index. The results indicated the existence of genotypic variability and G×E interaction. The environments were grouped into three factors. The predicted genetic gains from indirect selection was 4.81%. Thus, our results suggest that the FAI/MCMC index can be successfully used in soybean breeding.

Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho foi selecionar genótipos superiores de laranjeira-doce (Citrus sinensis) com maior potencial produtivo com base em dados de oito safras, com uso da metodologia “residual or restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased prediction” (REML/BLUP). O experimento foi realizado de 2002 a 2008 e em 2010, no município de Rio Branco, no estado do Acre, Brasil. Análises de deviance foram realizadas para testar a significância dos componentes da variância de acordo com os efeitos aleatórios do modelo utilizado, e os parâmetros foram estimados a partir das variâncias genotípicas e fenotípicas individuais. Foi adotada uma intensidade de seleção de 20% em relação à seleção genotípica, ou seja, apenas os melhores 11 dos 55 genótipos testados foram selecionados. As estimativas dos parâmetros genéticos mostram a existência de variabilidade genética e o potencial de seleção dos genótipos de laranjeira-doce estudados. A correlação genotípica entre as safras é de baixa magnitude, exceto para a variável massa média dos frutos, e, como reflexo, há uma mudança na ordenação dos genótipos. Os genótipos 5, 48, 19, 14 e 47 se destacam como os mais produtivos e, portanto, são os mais adequados para fins de seleção. Os genótipos 14 e 47 apresentam desempenho superior para o conjunto de caracteres avaliados.

Abstract: The objective of this work was to select superior sweet orange (Citrus sinensis) genotypes with higher yield potential based on data from eight harvests, using the residual or restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased prediction (REML/BLUP) methodology. The experiment was carried out from 2002 to 2008 and in 2010 in the municipality of Rio Branco, in the state of Acre, Brazil. Analyzes of deviance were performed to test the significance of the components of variance according to the random effects of the used model, and parameters were estimated from individual genotypic and phenotypic variances. A selection intensity of 20% was adopted regarding genotypic selection, i.e., only the best 11 of the 55 genotypes tested were selected. The estimates of the genetic parameters show the existence of genetic variability and the selection potential of the studied sweet orange genotypes. The genotypic correlation between harvests is of low magnitude, except for the variable average fruit mass, and, as a reflex, there is a change in the ordering of the genotypes. Genotypes 5, 48, 19, 14, and 47 stand out as being the most productive, and, therefore, are the most suitable for selection purposes. Genotypes 14 and 47 show superior performance for the character set evaluated.

Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho foi selecionar progênies e indivíduos de cupuaçuzeiro (Theobroma grandiflorum) com base em características agronômicas e, indiretamente, identificar aqueles adaptados a um ambiente de sistema agroflorestal (SAF) na Amazônia brasileira. Para tanto, 25 progênies de irmãos completos foram plantadas e testadas em consórcio com pimenta-do-reino (Piper nigrum), banana (Musa spp.) e bacuri (Platonia insignis). O experimento foi realizado em delineamento de blocos ao acaso, com cinco repetições e três plantas por parcela, de 2005 a 2019. Para as análises estatísticas, foram utilizadas as médias fenotípicas de produção e incidência da vassoura de bruxa avaliadas durante 11 safras. Progênies e indivíduos superiores foram identificados pela metodologia de modelos mistos (REML/BLUP), o que resultou na seleção de dez plantas de cinco famílias com características agronômicas superiores. As progênies de cupuaçu 6, 36, 37, 49 e 52 são as que melhor se adaptam ao ambiente de um SAF multiespécies na região amazônica, em razão de suas características agronômicas em condições competitivas. Dez matrizes apresentam potencial agronômico e adaptação indireta ao SAF e podem ser utilizadas como cultivares clonais de cupuaçu nesse ambiente.

Abstract: The objective of this work was to select cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum) tree progenies and individuals based on their agronomic traits, and, indirectly, to identify those adapted to an agroforestry system (AFS) environment in the Brazilian Amazon. For this purpose, 25 full-sib progenies were planted and tested in consortium with black pepper (Piper nigrum), banana (Musa spp.), and bacuri (Platonia insignis) trees. The experiment was carried out in a randomized complete block design, with five replicates and three plants per plot, from 2005 to 2019. For the statistical analyses, the phenotypic averages for production and incidence of witches’ broom disease, evaluated during 11 harvests, were used. Superior progenies and individuals were identified using the mixed model methodology (REML/BLUP), which led to the selection of ten plants from five families with superior agronomic traits. Cupuaçu tree progenies 6, 36, 37, 49, and 52 are the ones that best adapt to the environment of a multispecies AFS in the Amazon region because of their agronomic traits under competitive conditions. Ten matrices show agronomic potential and indirect adaptation to the AFS and can be used as clonal cupuaçu cultivars in this environment.

Abstract The aims of this study were to estimate genetic parameters, predict genotypic values, and analyze the genotypic divergence in S0 and S1 peach trees evaluated in a subtropical environment by the mixed model methodology. For this, twenty-two clones were evaluated for plant and fruit traits. Genotypic variance among clones was significant. The individual broad-sense heritabilities ranged from 0.11 to 0.84, and the individual repeatability coefficients ranged from 0.15 to 0.89. The genotypic coefficients of variation were higher than 10% for most of the traits. Clustering based on plant and fruit traits led to the formation of two and five mutually exclusive groups, respectively. Multivariate analysis of principal components indicated that some traits could be excluded from genetic evaluation. Considering the yield trait and the selection of five clones, predicted gain from selection was 70%, which shows the possibility of considerable genetic progress from clonal selection in peach trees.