Abstract Aims: To determine the incidence of injuries in exclusive treadmill runners and the main associated factors in 24 weeks. Methods: The incidence of injuries was investigated every two weeks by an electronic form. To analyze the associated factors, muscle force output, range of motion, and flexibility were investigated. To perform a descriptive analysis (baseline) and injury predictive factors (regression), we divided runners into two groups, injured and uninjured. Comparisons between groups were assessed evaluated by Student's t-test, Mann-Whitney, or Chi-square test. The relationship between associated factors and incidence of injuries was estimated by Logistic regression analysis. The model's accuracy was assessed by the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC). Thirty-seven runners completed the study. Results: The incidence of injuries was 6.8 per 1,000 hours of exposure. Among the associated factors, we highlight that runners with higher hip flexor force output were 4 times more likely not to injure (OR 4.0; CI 95% 1.03 -16.23) and lower knee extensor force output was related to a greater chance of injury (OR .24; 95% CI .65 - .93). The area under the ROC curve was 0.84. Conclusion: The incidence of injuries in treadmill runners was high. The factors associated with the injuries were the output of the flexor strength of the hip and the extensor force of the knee.

Modelos de simulação de culturas são importantes para quantificar riscos climáticos. Esses modelos necessitam de dados climáticos como dados de entrada. Entretanto, dados diários de precipitação pluvial e temperatura são facilmente encontrados, enquanto dados de radiação solar (Rs) limitam-se à aplicação de modelos de simulação de culturas. O objetivo deste estudo foi estimar a Rs utilizando cinco modelos de estimativa de radiação solar com base na temperatura do ar e quantificar a propagação de erros na radiação simulada na produtividade, biomassa, área foliar e radiação solar acumulada durante o ciclo da cultura do arroz de terras altas simulados pelo modelo de simulação ORYZA/APSIM. A acurácia dos cinco modelos de estimativa da radiação solar foi similar e não foi diferente entre os diferentes locais. Para ambientes que ocorre estresse hídrico, as saídas do modelo ORYZA/APSIM produtividade, biomassa e índice de área foliar não foram sensíveis às incertezas provenientes da radiação solar estimadas neste estudo.

Crop models are ideally suited to quantify existing climatic risks. However, they require historic climate data as input. While daily temperature and rainfall data are often available, the lack of observed solar radiation (Rs) data severely limits site-specific crop modelling. The objective of this study was to estimate Rs based on air temperature solar radiation models and to quantify the propagation of errors in simulated radiation on several APSIM/ORYZA crop model seasonal outputs, yield, biomass, leaf area (LAI) and total accumulated solar radiation (SRA) during the crop cycle. The accuracy of the 5 models for estimated daily solar radiation was similar, and it was not substantially different among sites. For water limited environments (no irrigation), crop model outputs yield, biomass and LAI was not sensitive for the uncertainties in radiation models studied here.