ABSTRACT This work presents an integrated decision support process based on Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) applicable to personal and organizational decisions. There are three main goals of this research: (i) present a methodological discussion on Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) and depict how it can contribute to support decision processes; (ii) present an integrated guide for a decision-support process based on VFT to help analysts and decision-makers in conducting decision processes; (iii) present applications of the proposed approach in a personal and a public management problem. This work delivers two main contributions: (a) a unified process that integrates different approaches based on VFT with a consistent structure for sequencing the stages of the decision-making process; and (b) examples that demonstrate the use of the proposed process in real problems and different contexts, presenting insights not thoroughly explored in the literature. ValueFocused Value Focused (VFT decisions research i (i processes ii (ii decisionsupport decisionmakers makers iii (iii problem contributions (a decisionmaking making b (b contexts literature

ABSTRACT Brazilian public universities are essential entities to foment technological and scientific development through the generation and transmission of knowledge; the existence of this environment is only possible through the capture, maintenance, and management of organizational resources. Ensuring the availability of such resources is a complex process. Regarding the management of infrastructure projects, the scenario is especially challenging. Considering this context, the main purpose of this article is to apply a multimethodology, based on Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) and Soft Systems Methodology (SSM), to structure the problem of managing infrastructure projects in a Brazilian Public University, using data collected in a previous analysis to explore the perspective of key stakeholders. The decision-making relevant system was chosen to be detailed and explored. Results show that the proposed multimethodology was able to provide essential diagnosis for the decision situation, bringing three main levels of necessary facilitating intervention. knowledge capture maintenance process challenging context SODA (SODA SSM, SSM , (SSM) University stakeholders decisionmaking making explored situation intervention (SSM

ABSTRACT This study structures objectives and sustainable-development alternatives for the Amazon Forest, based on the Amazônia 4.0 project. Value-Focused Thinking and Value-Focused Brainstorming were adopted. Amazônia 4.0 presents a new paradigm for the rainforest development, emphasizing the sustainable use of the biodiversity with innovative technologies. The project’s strategic objective is to promote the standing-forest’s value, through four fundamental objectives: adding value to products, creating means for industrialization, developing local economy and empowering communities. Alternatives include local mobile bio-industries, certified products, and educational partnerships. Challenges identified involve reevaluating the traditional credit system, creating new public policies, engaging numerous stakeholders, and addressing the lack of infrastructure. The project is in line with the Living Amazon Vision, proposed by the Science Panel for the Amazon, and takes the form of an operational bioeconomy project (already being tested). This study’s methodology can be applied to other initiatives seeking sustainable development in ecologically valuable regions. sustainabledevelopment Forest 40 4 0 4. ValueFocused Value Focused adopted technologies projects s standingforests standing forest products industrialization communities bioindustries, bioindustries bio industries, industries bio-industries partnerships system policies stakeholders infrastructure Vision already tested. tested . tested) studys regions

Abstract Paper Aims This paper aims to develop an approach to support group decision making combining methods and tools to a holistic MCDA process. Originality Authors have been using Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) for structuring problems with different MCDA methods, but there is a lack of a process that defines a clear transition from VFT to those methods. Here we propose a process to fill this gap. Research method Rich Picture and VFT structure the problem and elicit objectives that become criteria within a decision hierarchy. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with ratings supports preference elicitation and sensitivity analysis in the judgment weights of decision-makers. Main findings VFT is effective for eliciting the decision structure to AHP; using weight distribution of stakeholders may affect the results, and the multimethodology approach developed here can deal with group decision making. Implications for theory and practice The approach developed is effective in complex environments (complex problems and multiple stakeholders) because it focuses on values and defines a process to bring those values into a multicriteria method. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis with the judgment weights of the different stakeholders may be useful in negotiation.

Resumo: O modelo Teórico - Sistêmico de Análise de Processos (STPA) é utilizado para análise de perigos e prevenção da ocorrência de acidentes, baseado no pensamento sistêmico e identificação de cenários causais, idealizado pela professora Nancy Leveson do Instituto de Tecnologia de Massachusetts (MIT). O objetivo deste artigo é realizar uma análise bibliométrica e de patentes do modelo STPA. Sendo a bibliometria uma importante ferramenta na análise da produção científica, utiliza-se deste método de forma Estatística descritiva, para fins deste estudo foi dado destaque aos conceitos da Teoria Epidêmica de Goffman, sob uma análise principalmente qualitativa, para estudo de declínio e ascensão deste método no meio científico. Para a análise bibliométrica foram utilizadas como base de dados a página principal da Professora Nancy Leveson no site do MIT e sites de pesquisa científica, dentre eles: Web of Science, Mendeley, ResearchGate, Engineering Village e Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO). Para o levantamento de patentes as bases de pesquisa utilizadas foram Derwent, IHS e Orbit. Definindo como termo de busca “Systems Theoretic Process Analysis” e “STPA”, buscado no título, resumo e palavras-chave. No total foram encontradas 171 publicações (1990 a 2017), sendo 89 referências específicas do modelo STPA (2002 a 2017), abordando diversos assuntos como: definições, passos, complementos ao modelo, áreas de aplicação e utilização do modelo em conjunto com outra ferramenta de análise de risco. Ao final deste artigo são destacados os primeiros trabalhos do modelo STPA, ferramentas de apoio e análises, servindo como base e favorecimento trabalhos futuros.

Abstract: The Systemic Theoretical Process Analysis (STPA) model is used for hazard analysis and accident prevention, based on systemic thinking and the identification of causal scenarios, created by Professor Nancy Leveson of the Institute of Technology of Massachusetts (MIT). The purpose of this article is to perform a bibliometric and patent analysis of the STPA model. Since bibliometry is an important tool in the analysis of scientific production, this method is used as a descriptive statistic, for the purposes of this study, the concepts of Goffman's Epidemic Theory were highlighted, under a mainly qualitative analysis, for a study of decline and ascent scientific method. For the bibliometric analysis, the main page of Professor Nancy Leveson was used in MIT's Web site, besides the Web of Science, Mendeley, ResearchGate, Village of Engineering and Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO). Aiming to cover the patents analysis it was used the Derwent, IHS and Orbit research bases. Defining as search term “Analysis of the Theoretical Process of Systems” and “STPA”, searched in the title, abstract and keywords. A total of 171 publications (1990 to 2017) were found, with 89 specific references of the STPA model (2002 to 2017), addressing several subjects such as: definitions, steps, complements to the model, areas of application and use of the model with another risk analysis tool. At the end of this article are highlighted the main works of the STPA model, tools of support and analysis, serving as base and favoring future works.

ABSTRACT Performance assessment is addressed in the literature as means for continuous improvement. The objective of this study was to identify the most valued performance criteria for a Graduate Program of Biotechnology in a University of Brazil through the Value Focused Thinking (VFT) approach. The choice of the VFT was due to the holistic vision provided by it and the focus on the identification of organizational values. Among the objectives found, it is possible to notice an expansion of the vision of performance that is more focused on publications regarding the regulatory body Coordination of Improvement of Higher Level Personnel (CAPES), and contemplating among others the quality in the student’s training as evidence of other stakeholders. The VFT approach met the established assumptions, efficiently allowing strategic, fundamental and media objectives to be identified, as well as measurable attributes to be used by the program to enable more efficient management.

ABSTRACT: The statistical analysis of academic literature, also known as “bibliometrics”, is being increasingly applied to analyse research trends, to identify emerging areas of science and to find out where and how often specific articles are cited. The aim of this study was to identify technological innovation trend patterns in the aerospace sector applying bibliometric analysis over the period 2008 - 2015. In this study the keywords space technology, satellite, space launch vehicle, spacecraft, rocket and space station were used to scrutinize the database Web of Science (ISI). The obtained records were analysed using the Patent Insight Pro software (2015). It was observed that the researches related to aerospace technological development has been focused in satellites, giving also some directions for satellite launch vehicles. Bibliometric analysis revealed concern on new low-cost technologies development, and the applied logistic fit suggests that over the next five years the continuity on new space technologies development will be mostly related to small satellites, with also contributions associated with high-resolution imagery in order to improve Earth observation in low orbit.

ABSTRACT: Current Space Launch Vehicles use chemical reactions (solid and liquid propellants) to achieve sufficient thrust to launch artifacts and humans into space. Propulsion technologies can be framed in three different categories: "escape propulsion", "in-space propulsion", and "deep space propulsion". The launch vehicles currently used for "escape propulsion" rely on mature technologies, which experienced only small incremental improvements over the last five decades, and breakthroughs for this kind of propulsion are not foreseen for the next two decades. This research gathered information on the main operational heavy-lift space launch vehicles with capacity over 5,000 kg that are used to reach GEO (Geostationary Earth Orbit) by the United States, Russia, Europe, China, Japan and India and compared their thrust capability. The results show that performance was improved mainly by adding boosters, increasing gross propellant weight, with larger diameter rocket motors and using more efficient liquid propellant pairs. Information regarding the frequency of published scientific articles and patents on Space Vehicles Propulsion Systems since the 1960s was also gathered, which demonstrates some progress in the last years, mainly in USA and Europe. "In-space" and "Deep space" spacecraft were also briefly examined in this article, resuming the main features of some new promising developments, mainly regarding the latter, which present prospects of significant technological advances; however, real progress in interplanetary missions will be possible only when technological breakthroughs towards other propulsion types become possible and feasible. So, two questions motivated the authors: why space propulsion development seems stagnant? Are there prospects for progress?

Resumo Análise de risco de terrorismo é um dos maiores desafios enfrentados pelas autoridades que definem a política de alocação de recursos de uma nação. Este artigo provê uma breve revisão de duas abordagens tradicionalmente usadas para esse propósito: Análise de Risco Probabilística e Teoria dos Jogos. Adicionalmente, ele introduz no contexto brasileiro a Análise de Risco Adversário, uma metodologia inovadora que objetica analisar os riscos causados por oponentes inteligentes. Finalmente, uma situação hipotética da Análise de Risco Adversário é apresentada. Os resultados mostram que essa metodologia pode ser utilizada para apoiar decisões sobre a alocação de recursos de defesa no contexto de megaeventos esportivos que são de interesse de diversos países.

Abstract Terrorism risk assessment is one of the biggest challenges that authorities must face to define the defensive resource allocation policy for a country. This article provides a brief review of two approaches that have been traditionally used for this purpose: Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Game Theory. Additionally, it introduces the Adversary Risk Analysis approach to the Brazilian context; an innovative methodology that aims to assess risks caused by intelligent opponents. Finally, an application of Adversarial Risk Analysis in a hypothetical situation is presented. The results show that Adversarial Risk Analysis can be useful to support decisions about defensive resource allocation in contexts such as sports mega events, a reality for many countries around the world.

Resumo A tomada de decisão utilizando informações meteorológicas muitas vezes é um processo complexo, de alto impacto e, em algumas situações, pode comprometer o funcionamento de instalações tecnológicas. Neste contexto, o objetivo deste artigo é apresentar uma abordagem de apoio à decisão em condições de incerteza meteorológica para a proteção das infraestruturas no Centro de Lançamento de Alcântara. A partir de uma demanda operacional, foi desenvolvido um índice meteorológico de modo a identificar a atitude dos decisores em relação às três características da informação meteorológica: a) probabilidade da previsão de tempo; b) prazo de validade; c) valor da variável atmosférica. Como estudo de caso, foi analisado um problema real de decisão para proteção das instalações do principal centro espacial brasileiro. Através da interação com os usuários na construção do índice, foi possível concluir que para probabilidades baixas (< 20%) ou para prazos de validade estendidos (> 24 h), o grupo de usuários entrevistados não utiliza a informação meteorológica para tomar decisões, mesmo com o prognóstico de condições extremas. Os resultados quantitativos demonstraram que o modelo de apoio à decisão proposto conseguiu incorporar a atitude do usuário não-meteorologista em relação à incerteza da informação meteorológica.

Abstract Decision-making using weather information is often a complex and high impact process, and in some situations, can disturb the functioning of technological facilities. In this sense, the aim of this paper is to present a decision support approach for infrastructure protection under weather uncertainty at the Alcântara Launch Center, in Brazil. From an operational demand, a weather index was developed to identify the decision maker's attitude about the three characteristics of meteorological information: a) weather forecast probability; b) lead time of the information; c) value of a meteorological variable. As a case study, we analyzed a real decision-making problem for the protection of an aerospace vehicle and integration tower in the Brazilian space center. Through the development of an index with the users, it was concluded that for low probabilities (< 20%) or extended lead time (> 24 h), the group of users do not use weather information to make decisions, even with a prognosis of extreme conditions. The quantitative results showed that the decision model managed to incorporate the attitude of non-meteorologist users regarding the handling of uncertainty in weather forecasts.

The scenario generated by the increasing role of lead logistics providers, as well as a possible increased competition caused by government grant for some major Brazilian international airports, is demanding from those involved in the air cargo supply chain actions that promote improvements in services in order to make them more efficient. Influenced by this concern, this paper proposes a Three-Phase Method of multicriteria decision aid for the major services of the Brazilian international air cargo logistics chain. Using the foundations of the proposed method, the Phase 1 and Phase 2 are elaborated. In Phase 1, problem consolidation was performed and also the two main logistics strategic decisions were identified. In Phase 2, structuring multicriteria model is elaborated, identifying the aspects of such as criteria and sub-criteria for strategic decision of cargo only airlines, when selecting Brazilian international airports. In this Phase is also constructed, for a specific case-study, the hierarchical structure of the problem is also constructed.

El escenario generado por el creciente papel de los operadores logísticos, así como un posible aumento de la competencia provocada por la concesión de algunos de los principales aeropuertos internacionales brasileños, está exigiendo de los actores de la cadena logística de carga aérea iniciativas que promuevan la mejora de los servicios a fin de que hacerlos más eficientes. Influenciado por esta preocupación, este trabajo propone un método de tres fases de ayuda multicriterio a la decisión, para los principales servicios de la cadena logística de la carga aérea internacional brasileña. Usando los fundamentos del método propuesto, la Fase 1 y la Fase 2 se elaboran. En la Fase 1 se logra la consolidación del problema y también la identificación de dos grandes decisiones estratégicas logísticas. En la Fase 2 se desarrolla la estructuración del modelo multicriterio, identificando los aspectos, criterios y subcriterios para la decisión estratégica de aerolíneas exclusivamente cargueros en la selección de aeropuertos internacionales brasileños. En esta etapa también está elaborado para un estudio de caso específico, la estructura jerárquica del problema.

ABSTRACT This article approaches Engineering Requirements concepts and proposes the use of cognitive maps as support to the problem identification of the stakeholders during the requirements elicitation process. It presents a case study of the aerospace cluster of São José dos Campos, State of São Paulo. The cognitive map technique was developed to represent the views of the individuals, generating cognitive maps, which, in an aggregated way, express graphically the collective vision to support the decision-making process. Applied to Engineering Requirements, it has revealed the potential to promote the convergence of different points of view on the actual stakeholders’ needs in innovative fashion. This technique has demonstrated effectiveness when approaching the stated requirements early in the development process implemented throughout the life cycle of the system/product.

Estima-se que somente nos últimos quatro anos cerca de 5 milhões de brasileiros tenham sido atingidos por desastres naturais. Além do prejuízo financeiro, tem-se como principais consequências o impacto social negativo e o elevado número de vítimas fatais, os quais deveriam ser minimizados por intermédio do poder público. Esse último, contudo, mostra-se limitado para tal em decorrência de inúmeros infortúnios que, de modo geral, ainda não foram corretamente detectados. Nessa direção, visando à adequada estruturação da situação problemática em tela, lançou-se mão do método Strategic Options Development and Analysis. A partir de então, foi possível mapear o Sistema de Defesa Civil do Estado de São Paulo, o que viabilizou a identificação de diversos óbices e o estabelecimento de uma compreensão abrangente acerca dele. Com isto, espera-se que os resultados encontrados sirvam como ponto de partida para a realização de futuras pesquisas que visem ao desenvolvimento de soluções para os problemas supracitados.

It is estimated that approximately five million Brazilians have been affected by natural disasters in the past four years. In addition to the financial loss, the major consequences are the negative social impact and the high number of deaths, which should be minimized by Government Agencies. However, the aforementioned Agencies have shown to be partially or completely incapable of properly reacting against these disasters due to numerous mishaps that have not yet been fully identified. To this end, aiming at the adequate structuring of the problematic situation, the method of Strategic Options Development and Analysis has been employed. Through this method, it was possible to map out the Civil Defense System of the state of Sao Paulo, enabling the identification of several obstacles and the establishment of a broad understanding on the matter. Therefore, we expect that our findings may be used as a starting point for future researches aimed at developing solutions to the previously mentioned problems.

ABSTRACT: The meteorological and oceanographic conditions are crucial for the successful launch of aerospace vehicles. However, the decision-making process using environmental information is a complex problem, since it depends on a constant review of current and future weather conditions. To understand this process in the Brazilian Space Program (BSP) context, this paper aims to be the first attempt to map out the systemic view of applied meteorology for the launch missions of aerospace vehicles. Various Brazilian stakeholders were interviewed and their perspectives were analyzed by using a problem structuring method known as Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA). With this approach, it was possible to identify different concepts in each group of respondents regarding the current situation of Aerospace Meteorology. One particularly relevant result was identified: weather forecast is not merely a tool to be used to modify the chronology of a mission and to fully provide support in decision-making during the rocket launches in Brazil. Furthermore, the paper shows that the Aerospace Meteorology needs to improve technical processes and to develop a weather decision support system with decision-makers' preferences regarding the uncertainty in weather forecasts. SODA has shown to be a support tool to understand the real situation of meteorology for the launch of aerospace vehicles and appropriate to aid in future planning in the BSP.

Abstract: The increased complexity of organizational contexts in the end of the 20th centurv and beginning of the 21st century has resulted in the increment of the variables number to be considered during a performance evaluation. Therefore, many professionals began to search methods that would enable the simultaneous analvsis of multiple criteria. Thus, this paper has investigated the application of a multicriteria approach to evaluate the performance in the development of subsvstems during the development of complex products, by using the PROMETHEE GDSS and the GAIA methods. To achieve this objective, a study on the ITA-SAT satellite project wasperformed, in which a perception analvsis of the members of the project regarding the development of each subsvstem was carried out. Once these perceptions were captured, the proposed approach was used to identify subsvstems with less satisfactorvperformances. Finally, the results were analyzed and brought to discussion at a meeting with managers and project members with a feedback to the conclusions of this study.