BACKGROUND Monitoring and analysing the infection rates of the vector of Trypanosoma cruzi, that causes Chagas disease, helps assess the risk of transmission. OBJECTIVES A study was carried out on triatomine in the State of Paraná, Brazil, between 2012 and 2021 and a comparison was made with a previous study. This was done to assess the risk of disease transmission. METHODS Ecological niche models based on climate and landscape variables were developed to predict habitat suitability for the vectors as a proxy for risk of occurrence. FINDINGS A total of 1,750 specimens of triatomines were recorded, of which six species were identified. The overall infection rate was 22.7%. The areas with the highest risk transmission of T. cruzi are consistent with previous predictions in municipalities. New data shows that climate models are more accurate than landscape models. This is likely because climate suitability was higher in the previous period. MAIN CONCLUSION Regardless of uneven sampling and potential biases, risk remains high due to the wide presence of infected vectors and high environmental suitability for vector species throughout the state and, therefore, improvements in public policies aimed at wide dissemination of knowledge about the disease are recommended to ensure the State remains free of Chagas disease. Paraná Brazil 201 202 occurrence 1750 1 750 1,75 recorded identified 227 22 7 22.7% T municipalities period biases therefore 20 175 75 1,7 2 22.7 17 1, 22.

ABSTRACT Influence of Quaternary climate change on the potencial distribution of Atlantic Forest dung beetles (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Scarabaeinae). The role of Cenozoic paleoclimatic changes in the distribution of dung beetles species from the Atlantic Forest (AF) remains poorly understood. We used ecological niche modeling under different scenarios (present, 6 ka, 21 ka, and 120 ka) to investigate how climatic oscillations during the Quaternary might have influenced the distribution of species endemic to this region. Models were built for five of the nine dung beetle species of the Dichotomius sericeus group: D. iannuzziae, D. irinus, D. laevicollis, D. schiffleri, and D. sericeus. The models of climatic suitability for D. irinus and D. laevicollis show a similar historical pattern in response to climate change but were divergent from D. iannuzziae, D. schiffleri, and D. sericeus. Dichotomius schiffleri is the species with the smallest area of potencial occurrence. Over time, the species probably remained limited to lowland AF areas on the Brazilian coast and, it is currently found preferentially in Restinga ecosystems along the coast. Regarding the potential distribution models at the present, D. iannuzziae, D. schiffleri, and D. sericeus have potential distributions similar to their realized distribution. This study shows that the historical distribution of the D. sericeus species group has been influenced by paleoclimatic changes that occurred in the AF over the last 120 ka. Coleoptera (Coleoptera Scarabaeidae Scarabaeinae. Scarabaeinae . Scarabaeinae) (AF understood present (present ka 2 12 region D iannuzziae occurrence time 1

ABSTRACT Global climate change is currently a serious threat to biodiversity. The understanding of the effects of climate changes on the flora is urgent. Here, we analyze the effects of future climate change on the spatial distribution of the three remaining groups of Carapichea ipecacuanha (Poaia) in the Americas. We built niche-based models for current and optimistic and pessimistic climate scenarios projected for 2050 and 2090. Our findings showed that climatically suitable areas for the Atlantic and Amazon Forest groups will be strongly reduced. The greatest risk of extinction was observed for the Amazon group due to the drastic spatial reduction and abrupt spatial displacement of climate suitability. The climate suitability for the Atlantic Forest group will be reduced, comprising a small suitable area in the transition zone between Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo. The climate suitability for the Panama group remained in an continuous region in Panama and Colombia. Our results encourage future studies that develop conservation management plans in order to ensure the continuation of ecological refugia for this species. biodiversity urgent Here Poaia (Poaia Americas nichebased niche based 205 2090 reduced Santo Colombia species 20 209 2