The Americas are presently experiencing the most serious known outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV). Here, we present a novel set of analyses using environmental characteristics, vector mosquito distributions, and socioeconomic risk factors to develop the first map to detail global ZIKV transmission risk in multiple dimensions based on ecological niche models. Our model predictions were tested against independent evaluation data sets, and all models had predictive ability significantly better than random expectations. The study addresses urgent knowledge gaps regarding (1) the potential geographic scope of the current ZIKV epidemic, (2) the global potential for spread of ZIKV, and (3) drivers of ZIKV transmission. Our analysis of potential drivers of ZIKV distributions globally identified areas vulnerable in terms of some drivers, but not for others. The results of these analyses can guide regional education and preparedness efforts, such that medical personnel will be better prepared for diagnosis of potential ZIKV cases as they appear.

Introduction: In past decades, leishmaniasis burden has been low across Egypt; however, changing environment and land use has placed several parts of the country at risk. As a consequence, leishmaniasis has become a particularly difficult health problem, both for local inhabitants and for multinational military personnel. Methods: To evaluate coarse-resolution aspects of the ecology of leishmaniasis transmission, collection records for sandflies and Leishmania species were obtained from diverse sources. To characterize environmental variation across the country, we used multitemporal Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2005-2011. Ecological niche models were generated using MaxEnt, and results were analyzed using background similarity tests to assess whether associations among vectors and parasites (i.e., niche similarity) can be detected across broad geographic regions. Results: We found niche similarity only between one vector species and its corresponding parasite species (i.e., Phlebotomus papatasi with Leishmania major), suggesting that geographic ranges of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis and its potential vector may overlap, but under distinct environmental associations. Other associations (e.g., P. sergenti with L. major) were not supported. Mapping suitable areas for each species suggested that northeastern Egypt is particularly at risk because both parasites have potential to circulate. Conclusions: Ecological niche modeling approaches can be used as a first-pass assessment of vector-parasite interactions, offering useful insights into constraints on the geography of transmission patterns of leishmaniasis.

The bionomics of phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) were studied for two successive years (January 1996-December 1997) at 12 collecting stations representing six sectors of the province of Al-Baha, Saudi Arabia. The predominant species was Phlebotomus bergeroti (41.7%), followed by lesser numbers of Phlebotomus sergenti (11%), Phlebotomus arabicus (10.6%), Sergentomyia tiberiadis (10.5%), Phlebotomus papatasi (10.2%), Sergentomyia antennata (9.6%), Phlebotomus alexandri (3%), Phlebotomus orientalis (2.3%) and Sergentomyia clydei (1.1%). The distribution of the collected species including species that are elsewhere known to act as vectors of human cutaneous leishmaniasis were distributed across different altitudes in Al-Baha. P. bergeroti, P. papatasi and P. arabicus were more abundant indoors; however, P. sergenti was more abundant outdoors. Sand fly populations exhibited three patterns of seasonal abundance in terms of their monthly activity. P. bergeroti, P. sergenti and P. arabicus were found to be naturally infected with Leishmania-like flagellates at an infection rate of 0.2%.