Abstract Objective: To build a model based on cardiometabolic indicators that allow the identification of overweight adolescents at higher risk of subclinical atherosclerotic disease (SAD). Methods: Cross-sectional study involving 161 adolescents with a body mass index ≥ + 1 z-Score, aged 10 to 19 years. Carotid intima-media complex thickness (IMT) was evaluated using ultrasound to assess subclinical atherosclerotic disease. Cardiometabolic indicators evaluated included nutritional status, central adiposity, blood pressure, lipidic profile, glycemic profile, as well as age and sex. Data was presented using measures of central tendency and dispersion, as well as absolute and relative frequency. The relationship between IMT measurement (outcome variable) and other variables (independent variables) was assessed using Pearson or Spearman correlation, followed by multiple regression modeling with Gamma distribution to analyze predictors of IMT. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS and R software, considering a significance level of 5 %. Results: It was observed that 23.7 % had Carotid thickening, and the prevalence of abnormal fasting glucose was the lowest. Age and fasting glucose were identified as predictors of IMT increase, with IMT decreasing with age by approximately 1 % per year and increasing with glucose by around 0.24 % per mg/dL. Conclusion: The adolescent at higher risk is younger with higher fasting glycemia levels. Objective SAD. SAD . (SAD) Methods Crosssectional Cross sectional 16 zScore, zScore z Score, Score z-Score years intimamedia intima media (IMT status adiposity pressure profile sex dispersion frequency outcome variable independent correlation software Results 237 23 7 23. thickening lowest increase 024 0 24 0.2 mgdL mg dL mg/dL Conclusion levels (SAD 2 02 0.

Abstract The main objective of this study is to propose different probabilistic models for adjusting the trend component, since it significantly influences the quality of the spatio-temporal interpolation of rainfalls. We used the monthly total precipitation data of the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) for the period of 31 years, 1989–2019. The SFRB occupies 8% of the whole Brazilian territory, mostly located in the Northeast Brazilian region. For the trend component, we propose the fitted GAMLSS models by comparing different probability distribution families, which in most cases include the characteristics of these data. The results indicate the existence of a spatio-temporal pattern of the residues obtained from the adjustment of the trend with zero adjusted Gamma distribution for the accumulated monthly precipitation. The adjustment revealed a spatial dependence of up to 873 km between the pluviometric stations and temporal autocorrelation of approximately 1.6 months. The methodology used in this study enabled us to create rainfall maps, interpolating unobserved locations in differences years. The projection of these maps to the SFRB is considered extremely important for planning and implementing activities related to water resources across the river basin.