Abstract Computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) technology allows the use of different manufacturing techniques. This in vitro study aimed to evaluate the marginal fit of temporary restorations manufactured using conventional chairside methods, milling, and three-dimensional printing. Fifteen 3-element temporary restorations specimens were produced and categorized into three groups: non-digital, obtained using the conventional chairside method (GC); milled (GM); and three-dimensionally printed (GP). Marginal fit was assessed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) performed under two conditions: one with only the central screw tightened, and the other with all three screws tightened. Horizontal misfit values were categorized as over-, equal-, and under-extended and qualitatively analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed using the Tukey–Kramer test (α=0.05). In the vertical assessment, three-dimensionally printed restorations demonstrated greater misfit than restorations obtained by milling and the conventional chairside method (P<0.05). In the horizontal assessment, the misfit in the GP group was significantly higher than that in the GM and GC groups. Restorations obtained using the conventional chairside method and milled provisional restorations showed more favorable results than three-dimensionally printed restorations. Computeraided Computer aided CAM (CAM techniques methods threedimensional dimensional printing 3element element 3 groups nondigital, nondigital non digital, digital non-digital (GC) (GM) threedimensionally dimensionally GP. . (GP) SEM (SEM conditions tightened over, over , over- equal, equal equal- underextended extended analyzed TukeyKramer Tukey Kramer α=0.05. α005 α α=0.05 0 05 (α=0.05) assessment P<0.05. P005 P P<0.05 (P<0.05) (GC (GM (GP α00 α=0.0 (α=0.05 P00 P<0.0 (P<0.05 α0 α=0. (α=0.0 P0 P<0. (P<0.0 α=0 (α=0. P<0 (P<0. α= (α=0 P< (P<0 (α= (P< (α (P

Abstract In this article, we estimate a trend for Brazilian inflation in order to present an alternative measure of long-term inflation and provide a complement to the traditional core inflation measures. In addition to the economic analysis of the behavior of this estimation, a pseudo-real-time predictive capability assessment is applied. Obtaining the trend also allowed us to verify the dynamics of the persistence and volatility of the inflation gap during the current monetary regime. In the period under review, the results are correlated with the Brazilian situation, with positive contributions from the trend in the inflation prediction process. Still, they show a resistance convergence of the inflation rate to the levels pre-established by the CMN, in view of a considerable persistence of the inflation gap. The volatility of the gap, on the other hand, corroborates and identifies, at the same time, the great oscillations present in the domestic and external economic scenario. article longterm long term measures estimation pseudorealtime pseudo real time applied regime review situation process Still preestablished pre established CMN hand identifies scenario

Resumo Neste artigo, estimamos uma tendência para a inflação brasileira com a finalidade de apresentar uma medida alternativa de inflação de longo prazo e trazer um novo complemento aos tradicionais núcleos de inflação. Além da análise econômica do comportamento dessa estimativa, aplica-se uma avaliação de capacidade preditiva em pseudo tempo real. A obtenção da tendência também permitiu verificarmos a dinâmica da persistência e da volatilidade do gap da inflação durante o atual regime monetário. No período em análise, os resultados revelam-se correlacionados com a conjuntura brasileira, com contribuições positivas da tendência no processo preditivo da inflação. Ainda, eles mostram uma resistência de convergência da taxa de inflação aos níveis preestabelecidos pelo CMN, diante de um considerável nível de persistência do gap da inflação. Já a volatilidade do gap corrobora e identifica ao mesmo tempo as grandes oscilações presentes no cenário econômico doméstico e externo. artigo estimativa aplicase aplica se real monetário revelamse revelam Ainda CMN externo

Resumen Este estudio evaluó los efectos nutracéuticos de la suplementación con Selenio orgánico y vitamina E sobre el rendimiento, la calidad del huevo y la protección antioxidante de las codor nices japonesas. Cuarenta y dos jaulas de postura con seis aves cada una se colocaron al azar en siete tratamientos. Cada tratamiento consistió en la adición de 200 UI de vitamina E/kg de alimento y niveles crecientes de Selenio orgánico. Se encontraron diferencias significativas en la deposición de α-tocoferol, la actividad enzimática de la glutation peroxidasa (GSH-Px) y el bioindicador oxidativo malondialdehído (MDA) en yema de huevo con suplementos de vitamina E. Concluimos que la suplementación con 200 mg de vitamina E y 0,30 ppm de Selenio orgánico no afectó el rendimiento de las aves, pero mejoró la calidad del huevo y la vida útil.

Abstract This study evaluated the nutraceutical effects of organic Selenium and vitamin E supplementation on performance, egg quality and antioxidant protection of Japanese quails. Forty-two posture cages with six birds each were randomly set in seven treatments. Each treatment consisted of the addition of 200 IU of vitamin E/kg of feed and increasing levels of organic Selenium. Significant differences were found in α-Tocopherol deposition, enzymatic activity of glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) and oxidative bioindicator malondialdehyde (MDA) in egg yolk with vitamin E supplementation. We concluded that supplementing 200mg of vitamin E and 0.30 ppm organic Selenium did not affect bird performance, but improved egg quality and shelf life.

ABSTRACT A trial was carried out to evaluate the effects of different levels of microalgae Schizochytrium sp. on performance, yolk lipid profile, and egg quality of Japanese quail. A flock of 210 quail was distributed in a completely randomized design, with five treatments (0, 10, 20, 30, and 40 g of Schizochytrium sp./kg of feed) and six replications with seven birds per cage. Performance and egg quality were not affected, except for a quadratic effect on yolk color, which reached the maximum value with the inclusion of 40 g of Schizochytrium sp./kg. There was linear reduction in the content of saturated fatty acids and a linear increase of polyunsaturated:saturated and polyunsaturated:monounsaturated ratios and n-6. The content of n-3 showed a minimum value with the inclusion of 6.5 g of Schizochytrium sp./kg, and the n-6:n-3 ratio was maximized with the addition of 10.5 g of microalgae/kg. As for the sensory attributes color, aroma, and overall impression, there was linear increase with the addition of increasing levels of microalgae. The inclusion of up to 40 g of microalgae Schizochytrium sp./kg in the diet of Japanese quail did not present changes in the performance nor in the egg quality but accentuated the yolk color, promoted the fortification of n-3 in the eggs, and still provided excellent sensorial acceptance. The egg fortification can add value to the product, increasing the producer remuneration and improving the nutritional quality of the diet for humans.

Introduction: The access to COVID-19 hospital treatment is important to mitigate the impact caused by socioeconomic issues in the treatment of the disease. Objective: To analyze the difference between public and private hospital care in mortality due to COVID-19 in Florianópolis/SC, Brazil. Methods: Historical cohort with confirmed patient data with notification made between February 22nd 2020 and November 9th 2020 in hospitals in the city. Data were provided by the Municipal Health Secretariat. In order to control the socioeconomic factors that could simultaneously influence the search for the type of hospital and mortality, a double-robustness approach was used. In the first stage, pairing of notified individuals in public and private hospitals was carried out by genetic algorithm, using sample replacement. In the second stage, the probability of death was estimated, conditioned by the type of hospital (public or private), symptoms, comorbidities, socioeconomic factors, age, age squared, sex, race / skin color and month of symptom onset using a logistic regression. Finally, the difference between the densities of probability of death of the two hospital types was analyzed. Results: Data from 2,497 people, 1,244 from public hospitals and 1,253 from private hospitals were analyzed. The conditional probability of death assuming that all patients were notified in public hospitals was 0.0010 (95% CI 0.0001; 0.0046) and if all were notified in private hospitals it was 0.0009 (95% CI 0.0001; 0.0039). The difference between the two probabilities was -0,0002 (95% CI -0.0013; 0.0005). Conclusion: The probability of death from COVID-19 was similar among patients seen in public and private hospitals during the period studied.

Introdução: O acesso ao tratamento hospitalar da COVID-19 é importante para amenizar o impacto causado pelas questões socioeconômicas no tratamento da doença. Objetivo: Analisar diferença da atenção hospitalar pública ou privada na mortalidade por COVID-19 em Florianópolis/SC. Métodos: Coorte histórica com dados de pacientes confirmados com notificação realizada entre 22 de fevereiro de 2020 e 09 de novembro de 2020 em hospitais da cidade. Os dados foram fornecidos pela Secretaria Municipal de Saúde. Para controlar os fatores socioeconômicos que poderiam influenciar simultaneamente a busca do tipo de estabelecimento hospitalar e a mortalidade, utilizou-se abordagem de dupla-robustez. Na primeira etapa realizou-se pareamento de indivíduos notificados em hospitais públicos e privados por algoritmo genético. Na segunda etapa, estimou-se a probabilidade de óbito condicionada ao tipo de hospital (público ou privado), aos sintomas, comorbidades, fatores socioeconômicos, idade, idade ao quadrado, sexo, raça/cor da pele e mês do início dos sintomas por meio de regressão logística. Analisou-se, por fim, a diferença entre as densidades de probabilidade de óbito dos dois tipos hospitalares. Resultados: Foram analisados dados de 2.497 pessoas, 1.244 de hospitais públicos e 1.253 de privados. A probabilidade condicional de óbito assumindo que todos os pacientes fossem notificados em hospitais públicos foi de 0,0010 (IC 95% 0,0001; 0,0046) e se todos fossem notificados em hospitais privados foi de 0,0009 (IC 95% 0,0001; 0,0039). A diferença entre as duas probabilidades foi de -0,0002 (IC 95% -0,0013; 0,0005). Conclusão: A probabilidade de óbito por COVID-19 mostrou-se semelhante entre pacientes atendidos em hospitais públicos e privados no período estudado.

RESUMO: A mastite é uma doença multifatorial e é considerada um dos problemas mais importantes na indústria de laticínios no mundo todo. A condição é caracterizada pela redução de leite e várias anormalidades na glândula mamária. O objetivo deste estudo foi relatar um surto de mastite gangrenosa causada por Staphylococcus haemolyticus multirresistente em um rebanho ovino Santa Inês. Dezoito ovelhas foram afetadas e cinco delas com quadro clínico severo foram examinadas. O quadro clínico-patológico era variável quanto a severidade e consistia em apatia, anorexia, magreza, pelos opacos e quebradiços e vasos episclerais aparentes e ingurgitados. As ovelhas apresentavam glândulas aumentadas, firmes e dolorosas. Macroscopicamente, as principais lesões consistiam em mastite gangrenosa e microscopicamente havia necrose do parênquima glandular, trombose e fibrose. Amostras de leite de uma das cinco ovelhas severamente afetadas foram coletadas e cultivadas sob incubação aeróbica ou microaerofílica a 37°C por 24 horas em ágar sangue de ovelha. As colônias obtidas foram então submetidas ao MALDI-TOF para especiação. Além disso, as colônias foram submetidas a um teste de suscetibilidade antimicrobiana e foi realizada a genotipagem de fatores de virulência e genes de resistência. Os isolados apresentaram multirresistência antimicrobiana por serem resistentes a sete dos 13 antibióticos testados. Os isolados também foram positivos para dois genes enterotoxigênicos estafilocócicos (sec e see) e proteína B de ligação à fibronectina (fnbB).

ABSTRACT: Mastitis is a multifactorial disease and considered one of the most critical problems in the dairy industry worldwide. The condition is characterized by reduced milk and several abnormalities in the mammary gland. This study aimed to report an outbreak of gangrenous mastitis caused by multidrug-resistant Staphylococcus haemolyticus in a Santa Inês sheep herd. Eighteen sheep were affected, and five of them with severe clinical pictures were examined. The clinical and pathological picture were variable and characterized by apathy, anorexia, emaciation, opaque and brittle hair, apparent and congested episcleral vessels, and hyperthermia. These ewes had enlarged, firm, and painful mammary glands. Macroscopically, these lesions consisted of severe gangrenous mastitis, and microscopically, the primary lesions consisted of necrosis, thrombosis, and fibrosis of the mammary parenchyma. Milk samples from one of the five severely affected ewes were collected and cultured under aerobic or microaerophilic incubation at 37°C for 24 hours on sheep blood agar. The obtained colonies were then submitted to MALDI-TOF for speciation. The colonies were also submitted to an antimicrobial susceptibility test, genotyping of virulence factors and resistance genes were also performed. The isolates showed antimicrobial multiresistance since they were resistant to seven out of 13 tested antibiotics. The isolates were also positive for two staphylococcal enterotoxigenic genes (sec and see) and fibronectin-binding protein B (fnbB).

RESUMO As atividades das enzimas do complexo enzimático SSF (solid-state fermentation) adicionado à ração antes e após o processo de extrusão e a influência no desempenho de tilápias do Nilo (Oreochromis niloticus) foram avaliadas. Foram selecionadas as seguintes enzimas para análise: b-glicosidase, pectinase, xilanase, endoglucanase, amilase, protease e fitase. Os peixes foram submetidos a cinco tratamentos: ração sem adição de enzima, com adição de 400 ppm de SSF antes da extrusão, com 800 ppm de SSF antes da extrusão, 400 ppm de SSF adicionados “on top” após a extrusão e 800 ppm de SSF adicionados “on top” após a extrusão. O experimento teve um delineamento inteiramente casualizado com quatro repetições, contendo sete peixes por aquário. O peso médio inicial foi de 10,37 g ± 0,95, sendo alimentados quatro vezes ao dia, até a saciedade, durante 56 dias. Avaliou-se: peso inicial, peso final, ganho de peso, conversão alimentar, sobrevivência, taxa de crescimento específico e composição corporal. Os resultados foram comparados utilizando-se ANOVA e teste de Tukey a p<0.05. Todas as enzimas perderam atividade enzimática parcial ou total quando submetidas ao processo de extrusão, exceto a fitase. Não foram observadas diferenças entre a sobrevivência, parâmetros de qualidade da água e a composição corporal. A inclusão “on top” proporcionou um melhor rendimento, observado através de melhorias no peso final, ganho de peso e conversão alimentar. Concluiu-se que, 800 ppm de SSF deve ser adicionado "on top", após a extrusão, para proporcionar um melhor desempenho em tilápias, e consequentemente a eficiência financeira da produção.

ABSTRACT Enzyme activity in solid-state fermentation complex added to diets before and after extrusion process and its influence on Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) performance were evaluated. The following enzymes were analyzed: b-glucosidase, pectinase, xylanase, endoglucanase, amylase, protease, and phytase. The fish were fed five experimental diets: a control diet (without enzyme), two test diets supplemented before extrusion (400 and 800 ppm SSF), and two test diets after extrusion or “on top” (400 and 800 ppm SSF). The experiment had a completely randomized design with four replicates and seven fish per tank. Average initial weight was 10.37 ± 0.95 g, and fish were fed four times a day to satiation for 56 days. The following performance parameters were evaluated: final weight, weight gain, feed conversion, survival, specific growth rate, and body composition. The results were compared using ANOVA and Tukey’s test at p<0.05. All the enzymes showed partial or total losses of activity when subjected to the extrusion process, except phytase. No differences were observed for survival, water quality parameters, and body composition. On-top inclusion provided a better performance, which is observed through increases in final weight, weight gain, and feed conversion. As a result, 800 ppm of enzyme complex SSF should be added "on top", that is after extrusion, to improve tilapia performance and, consequently, contribute to the fish farming financial efficiency.

ABSTRACT The increasing demand for electricity and the scarcity of resources, require renewable energy sources and efficient equipment that reduce the consumption of electricity. The Green Office (GO) of the Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná (UTFPR) is a sustainable building that uses strategies to reduce impacts to the environment, one of them being the use of the grid connected photovoltaic system (on-grid). The on-grid was installed in 2011 and since then has been feeding the GO and another building (block V) belonging to UTFPR. This article presents a comparison between an estimate of energy consumption and the generation of energy through the on-grid. By means of the estimated consumption, a survey in loco of the scenario of expenditures of the electrical equipment used in the GO was made, estimating hours of use and power, so the consumption scenario was 145 kWh/month. The power generation of the EV is lower in the months May - July, period in which the solar irradiation is smaller, but according to the measurements the on-grid produces more energy than it consumes.

RESUMO Foram conduzidos dois experimentos com larvas de piabanha-do-Pardo Brycon vonoi. No primeiro ensaio, avaliaram-se seis dietas: Artemia sp., plâncton, ração, ração + Artemia sp., ração + plâncton, larvas de Prochilodus hartii (curimba). No segundo, quatro salinidades de água (0, 2, 4 e 6‰), ambos os experimentos em delineamento inteiramente casualizado, com duração de 10 dias. A biomassa, sobrevivência, comprimento total, peso e taxa de crescimento específico foram mensurados ao final dos experimentos; já os parâmetros de qualidade de água, temperatura, oxigênio, pH e condutividade elétrica foram aferidos a cada três dias. O alimento larva de curimba resultou em maior sobrevivência (47,2%) e biomassa (2,5 g) do que os demais tipos, que foram similares entre si. O peso, o comprimento e a taxa de crescimento específico não diferiram entre si para as larvas alimentadas com os diversos tipos de alimento. Todos os tratamentos com salinização apresentaram melhores resultados em relação a água doce sem salinização. No entanto, quando cultivadas sob 2‰ de salinização, as larvas apresentaram 52,5% de sobrevivência e 0,49 g de biomassa, e em água doce sem salinização foram observados apenas 6,6% e 0,23 g, respectivamente. Conclui-se que a utilização de larvas de curimba como dieta é o mais adequado e recomenda-se salinizar a água com 2‰, caso seja fornecida artêmia como alimento.

ABSTRACT Two experiments were carried out to study piabanha-do-Pardo (Brycon vonoi) larvae development. In the first, six different diets were evaluated, being Artemia sp., plankton, feeds, feeds + Artemia sp., feeds + plankton, and Prochilodus hartii (curimba) larvae. In the second, four different water salinity levels (0, 2, 4, and 6‰) were tested. Both assays were entirely randomized design experiments, lasting for 10 days. At the end of these trials, fish biomass, survival, total length, weight, and specific growth rate were measured. Additionally, water quality, temperature, oxygen, pH, and electric conductivity measurements were made every three days. The curimba larvae diet presented higher survival rate (47.2%) and biomass weight (2.5 g) than the other diets, which were similar among each other. Piabanha-do-Pardo larvae weight, length, and specific growth rate varied with the offered diets. All water salinity treatments showed better results than those observed for fresh water. When cultivated in 2‰ salinization, larvae had 52.5% survival rates and 0.49 g biomass weight, while in the fresh water these results were 6.6% and 0.23 g, respectively. To conclude, we may identify curimba larvae as an adequate diet, and a 2‰ water salinity as recommended if Artemia sp. larvae are fed to piabanha-do-Pardo larvae.

ABSTRACT The effects of processing of pelleted diets and their storage time on the stability of the enzyme complex SSF (solid-state fermentation) were evaluated. Two diets were formulated with the same nutritional composition, differing only in the Schizochytrium sp. levels (0 g kg-1 and 50 g kg-1). The samples were collected during the following processing steps: mixing, then pelleting, and then oven. To evaluate the storage time, the diet ready after drying was considered as day 1. On this day, two samples were obtained, being one kept in a room with ambient temperature of 25 °C and another stored in freezer at -18 °C. At 15, 30, 45, and 60 days, sub-samples were taken. All samples from the processing step and storage time were sent to the laboratory and the following enzyme activities were measured: α-galactosidase, endoglucanase (carboxy-methyl-cellulase), xylanase, sucrase, amylase, lipase, and trypsin. There were no significant differences between the mixture and post-oven phase, except for the activity of α-galactosidase, lipase, and sucrase. For the storage temperature of 25 °C, no effect was observed for the activities of endoglucanase, sucrase, xylanase, amylase, and trypsin between the first (after oven) and the 60th day of the trial. As for the storage temperature of -18 °C, no difference was observed, except for the activities of endoglucanase and xylanase between the first and last day. Comparing the two types of storage (25 °C and -18 °C), there was difference only for the activity of galactosidase and trypsin at 60 days. The enzymes of the enzyme complex SSF studied remain stable during the processing of pelleted diet at 55 °C, maintaining activity for at least 60 days when stored at temperatures up to 25 °C.

RESUMO Larvas de duas linhagens de tilápias do Nilo (Oreochromis niloticus) foram submetidas a diferentes densidades de estocagem. O ensaio foi conduzindo em um fatorial 2 x 4, sendo quatro densidades de estocagem (6,25; 12,50; 18,75 e 25,00 ind. L-1), e duas linhagens (GIFT e Tailandesa). Larvas irmãs das linhagens Tailandesa e GIFT (4.000 ind.), foram distribuídas em 32 aquários com 8 L de água cada, de modo casualizado com quatro repetições cada. Por um período de 36 dias, as larvas foram mantidas em aquários providos de aeração constante e fotoperíodo natural. As variáveis limnológicas estiveram dentro da faixa adequada à espécie. Os dados foram interpretados por meio de ANOVA e para os efeitos densidade, utilizou-se Teste de Tukey. Quanto às variáveis biológicas, não houve interação entre linhagem e densidade. A linhagem GIFT apresentou melhor desempenho em comprimento total e biomassa para o 36o dia. Dentre as densidades para cada linhagem os melhores resultados de comprimentos, peso e ganho de peso, foram para a densidade 6,25 ind. L-1, mas ao se utilizar 25 ind. L-1 ocorre aumento na biomassa e otimização do espaço utilizado. Portanto, indica-se as linhagens GIFT na densidade de 25,00 ind. L-1.

ABSTRACT Larvae from two Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) lineages were subjected to different storage densities. An experiment was conducted arranged in a 4 x 2 factorial scheme, four storage densities (6.25, 12.50, 18.75 and 25.00 larvae L-1) and two lineages (GIFT and Thai). Larvae from the lineage GIFT and Thai (4,000) were distributed in 32 aquariums with 8 liters of water each, in a randomized order with four replications. The larvae were maintained in the aquariums with constant aeration and natural photoperiod for 36 days. Limnological variables were within the proper range to the specie. Data were subjected to ANOVA, and the Tukey test was used for the density effects. Regarding the biological variables, there was no interaction between lineage and density. The GIFT lineage presented better performance on total length and biomass at the 36th day. Regarding the densities of each lineage, the greater length, weight and weight gain results were found with a density of 6.25 larvae L-1, however, an increase in biomass and a space use optimization occurs using 25 larvae L-1. Therefore, the lineage GIFT at density of 25.00 larvae L-1 is indicated for larval culture.

RESUMO. O presente estudo teve como objetivo acompanhar o desenvolvimento do sistema digestório em larvas do peixe Neotropical Prochilodus argenteus utilizando-se análises histológicas. No terceiro dia após a eclosão, o sistema digestório consistiu de cavidade orofaríngea, esôfago e um tubo simples indiferenciado. No entanto, as células do esôfago apresentavam marcação positivas para azul de Alcian (AB), indicando a possibilidade de ocorrência de atividade digestória nesta fase inicial. Nos dias 18 e 28 após a eclosão, as células do esôfago mostraram-se positivas para AB e ácido periódico de Schiff (PAS). O estômago se encontrava totalmente diferenciado, evidenciado pela presença da região cárdica, fúndica e pilórica. As células epiteliais dessas regiões apresentaram células secretoras ácidas e básicas (AB e PAS positivas). Nos dias 18 e 28 após a eclosão, o intestino da larva se mostrou longo, enrolado e dividido em segmentos proximal (com cecos pilóricos), médio e distal. As células epiteliais secretoras do intestino foram positivas ou negativas para a AB e PAS. Em conclusão, as larvas de P. argenteus exibiram atividade digestiva já no terceiro dia após a eclosão, e no 18 e 28o dias já apresentavam estômago e intestino totalmente diferenciados, com células secretoras nas suas diferentes regiões.

ABSTRACT. The development of the digestive system in larvae of the Neotropical fish P. argenteus was analyzed histologically. On the 3rd day after hatching, the digestive system comprised oropharyngeal cavity, esophagus and simple undifferentiated tube. Since secreting cells, positive to Alcian Blue (AB), were found in the esophagus, digestive activity in the initial phase had occurred. On the 18 and 28th days after hatching, the esophagus was positive for AB and Periodic Acid Schiff (PAS) stain. The stomach was fully differentiated, with the cardiac, fundic and pyloric regions. Different regions of the epithelium were characterized by basic and acidic secreting cells (AB and PAS positive). On the 18 and 28th days after hatching, the intestine was long, coiled and divided into proximal, middle and distal segments with pyloric ceca. Secreting cells in different regions of the gut were either positive or negative for AB and PAS. Results showed that larvae of P. argenteus exhibited digestive activity on the third day after hatching, with fully differentiated stomach and intestines on the 18 and 28th days and their different regions featuring secreting cells.

Modelos baseados em vetores autoregressivos com parâmetros variantes no tempo e contendo efeitos heterocedásticos (TVP-VAR) propostos por Koop & Korobilis (2013) são utilizados na previsão da inflação (IPCA), da taxa de juros (SELIC) e do indicador mensal do PIB (IBC-Br) para diversos horizontes. Estratégias de previsão baseadas em seleção e combinação dinâmicas entre diferentes especificações também são utilizadas. As previsões são comparadas com as oriundas de modelos VAR bayesianos, modelos VAR aumentados com fatores e outros modelos competidores através da metodologia model confidence set. Os resultados indicam que a especificação TVP-VAR é a única que está sempre no conjunto de melhores modelos, independentemente da variável analisada ou do horizonte de previsão escolhido.

Vector autoregressive models with time-varying parameters and heteroskedastic effects, proposed in Koop & Korobilis (2013) and known as TVP-VAR models, are used to predict inflation, the interest rate, and a monthly GDP indicator for several forecast horizons. Dynamic model selection and averaging strategies for the different model specifications are also considered. Forecasts are compared to those from Bayesian VAR models, factor augmented VARs, and other competing models using the model confidence set methodology. The results indicate that TVP-VAR is the only specification always included in the set of best performing models, independently from the variable analyzed, and from the forecast horizon.

RESUMOObjetivo:Avaliar a função visual e arquitetura da retina central e peripapilar em pacientes com retinocoroidite toxoplásmica inativa fora da região macular e peripapilar (zonas 2 e 3).Métodos:Estudo transversal de 20 olhos (18 pacientes) com cicatrizes toxoplásmicas nas zonas 2 e 3 com acuidade visual ≥20/25. Os pacientes foram submetidos à perimetria Humphrey 10-2, teste de sensibilidade ao contraste (Teste Mars) e teste de visão de cores (L'Anthony D-15 dessaturado). As espessuras da camada de fibras nervosas da retina (CFNR) e da mácula foram determinadas pela tomografia de coerência óptica.Resultados:A média de idade dos pacientes foi 27,4 ± 10,3 anos, e a duração média da remissão da retinocoroidite foi de 6,15 ± 5,19 meses. Alterações na sensibilidade ao contraste e cores foram observada em, respectivamente, 3 olhos (15,0%) e 4 olhos (20,0%). Os índices perimétricos mean deviation (MD) e pattern standard deviation (PSD) estiveram fora do intervalo de confiança de 95% do perímetro em 14 olhos (70,0%) e 7 olhos (35,0%), respectivamente. A espessura foveal e da CFNR média estiveram dentro do limite da normalidade em todos os olhos. Olhos com retinocoroidite na zona 2 tiveram menor sensibilidade foveal que olhos com lesões na zona 3 (p=0,041). Olhos com remissão de longa duração tiveram um MD mais alto (r=0,575; p=0,013) e um PSD mais baixo (r=-0,593; p=0,010).Conclusão:Apesar da arquitetura normal da retina central e peripapilar, olhos com retinocoroidite inativa nas zonas 2 e 3 podem apresentar anormalidades da visão de cores, sensibilidade ao contras e perimetria macular. A retinocoroidite na zona 2 está associada a uma menor sensibilidade foveal. Longos intervalos de remissão da retinocoroidite estiveram associados a melhores parâmetros perimétricos (MD e PSD).

ABSTRACTPurpose:To evaluate the visual function and architecture of the central and peripapillary retina in patients with inactive toxoplasmic retinochoroiditis outside the macular and peripapillary regions (zones 2 and 3).Methods:Cross-sectional study of 20 eyes (18 patients) with zone 2 and 3 toxoplasmic scars and visual acuity ≥20/25. Patients underwent Humphrey 10-2 perimetry, contrast sensitivity (Mars test), and color vision testing (L'Anthony desaturated D-15). The retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) and macular thicknesses were determined by optical coherence tomography.Results:The patients' mean age was 27.4 ± 10.3 years, and the mean duration of remission was 6.15 ± 5.19 months. Abnormal contrast sensitivity and color vision were observed in three (15.0%) and four eyes (20.0%), respectively. Mean deviation (MD) and pattern standard deviation (PSD) fell outside the 95% normal confidence limits of the perimeter's database in 14 (70.0%) and seven eyes (35.0%), respectively. Foveal and mean RNFL thicknesses were within the normal limits in all eyes. Eyes with zone 2 retinochoroiditis had lower foveal sensitivity than eyes with zone 3 lesions (p=0.041). Eyes with a longer duration of remission had a higher MD (r=0.575; p=0.013) and a lower PSD (r=-0.593; p=0.010).Conclusions:Despite normal central and peripapillary retinal architecture, eyes with inactive zone 2 and 3 toxoplasmic retinochoroiditis can present with abnormal color, contrast, and macular perimetric sensitivity. Zone 2 retinochoroiditis was associated with lower foveal sensitivity, and a longer duration of retinochoroiditis remission was associated with better perimetric parameters (MD and PSD).

Este trabalho utiliza um modelo DSGE para calcular multiplicadores a valor presente para gastos do governo com consumo e investimento. Os resultados mostram que o efeito inicial do aumento do consumo público sobre o PIB é positivo, porém, o efeito de longo prazo é menor do que um em todos os cenários analisados. Por outro lado, gastos com investimento acarretam não só um impacto inicial positivo, mas também um efeito de longo prazo superior a um mesmo para valores da elasticidade produto do capital público muito baixos, apontando para as vantagens de uma política fiscal baseada em gastos com investimento.

This article develops a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze the different effects of government expenditures based on consumption and on investment for the Brazilian economy. The model includes public capital as a production factor and analyzes the impact of public investment on the marginal productivity of private inputs and on GDP. The analysis is based on present value multipliers, allowing the consideration of the dynamic effects of fiscal policy. The results show the advantages of a fiscal policy based on investment in comparison to a fiscal policy based on consumption expenditures.