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Abstract Using the non-linear regression model, the present study aims to develop sample mathematical models for the microbial flora by utilization of the antimicrobial effects of rosemary (Rosmarinus officinalis) extracts at different concentrations (0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2%) on the raw chicken mince. For this purpose, 5 experimental groups were established for each plant extract. The samples (100 g each) treated with plant extract at different concentrations were vacuum-packaged under aseptic conditions. The packaged samples were kept in refrigerator (4ºC). The microbiological analyses of (total mesophilic aerobic bacteria, total coliform group bacteria, S. aureus, total yeast-mold, and total psychrophilic bacteria) were performed on 0th, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 10th days of storage. When compared to the control group the treatment with RE resulted in a decrease in the microbial numbers by 2.5 log units for TMAB number, by 3.5 log units for S. aureus number, by 3,5 log units for TMY number and by 1.5 log units for TP bacteria on the final day of storage. In establishing the model, the plant extract and storage period were used as variable parameters, whereas the shelf-life was used as output parameter. The changes in shelf-life of raw chicken minces by storage period and extract concentration were modeled, the compliance of obtained mathematical models was tested using Variance Analysis Method (ANOVA) and regression and determination coefficients (R2) were determined. After determining their compliance of models based on R2 values, the estimated values and real values were compared. As a result of study, it was determined that R2 values of raw chicken mince models by total mesophilic aerobic bacteria, S. aureus, total coliform bacteria, total yeast/mold, and total psychrophilic bacteria during the storage period were found to range between 0.743 and 0.978 and the models representing the microbial change were found to have a high level of compliance.