Abstract This study aims to estimate the profitability and to evaluate the economic risks of REDD + projects in the Brazilian Amazon. The data were obtained through interviews and questionnaires to the proponents of the private REDD + projects of Amazonia. The economic risk was calculated using sensitivity analysis of the key project variables and the probability of project profitability through the Monte Carlo Simulation Method. The results indicate that the variable cost was responsible for 80% of the total costs. Fixed costs accounted for 20% of total costs. The result of the cash flow risk analysis concluded that REDD + projects in the Brazilian Amazon are viable, Internal Rate of Return of 11.49% a.a. was greater than the 10% a.a. Minimum Attractiveness Rate. The point at which the project computes a positive NPV is the price of BRL 18.6. Projects that sold VCUs at a price lower than BRL 18.6 may be financially unfeasible. The Monte Carlo simulation showed that the probability of obtaining a TIR of 10% a.a. or more is 51.53% a.a. It is concluded that REDD + projects in the Amazon have a positive return probability approaching 50%, but this return is not as attractive.

Resumen Este estudio tuvo como objetivo estimar la viabilidad y evaluar los riesgos económicos de los proyectos de Reducción de Emisiones por Deforestación y Degradación forestal - REDD+ en la Amazonia brasileña. Los datos fueron obtenidos a través de entrevistas y cuestionarios a los proponentes de proyectos privados de REDD+ en la Amazonia. El riesgo económico se calculó de acuerdo con un análisis de sensibilidad de las variables clave de los proyectos y la probabilidad de viabilidad de proyectos mediante el método de Simulación Monte Carlo. Los resultados obtenidos indican que los costes variables corresponden a 80%, mientras que los fijos representaron 20% de los costos totales. Los resultados del análisis de riesgos sujetos a flujo de caja indican que los proyectos REDD+ en la Amazonia brasileña son viables, con Tasa Interna de Retorno (TIR) de 11,49% por año, superior a la Tasa Mínima de Atractividad real de 10% por año utilizada. El punto en el que el proyecto mostró un Valor Actual Neto (VAN) positivo es el precio de BRL 18,6; donde proyectos que vendan Verified Carbon Units (VCUs) a un precio inferior a BRL 18,6 podrán presentar inviabilidad financiera. La simulación de Monte Carlo mostró que la probabilidad de obtener una TIR de 10% o más por año es 51,53%. Se concluye que los proyectos de REDD+ en la Amazonia tienen una probabilidad de retorno positivo próximo a 50%, pero esos retornos no llegan a ser tan atractivos en relación con el alto riesgo.

RESUMOEste estudo teve como objetivo quantificar a biomassa e o estoque de CO2 e avaliar a viabilidade econômica de geração de créditos de carbono na Área de Proteção Ambiental – APA da Serra de Baturité, Ceará. A quantificação da biomassa foi feita pelo método não destrutivo e foram avaliados financeiramente três mercados de carbono. O mercado regulado: Mecanismo de desenvolvimento limpo – MDL; e os mercados voluntários: Verified Carbon Stantard – VCS e o esquema de comércio de Emissões da Nova Zelândia – NZ ETS. Os critérios financeiros utilizados para a avaliação foram o Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) e a Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR). Os resultados mostraram que a APA sequestra em média 84,63 MtCO2e. De acordo com os preços e custos do mercado para o ano 2012, os projetos florestais para sequestro de carbono podem gerar valor anual equivalente de R$ 1.336 e TIR de 21% por hectare, se vendido no mercado NZ ETS. No mercado VCS, a venda dos créditos gera VPL de R$ 2.138 e TIR de 18%. Entretanto, se os créditos forem comercializados no MDL, o VPL será de R$ -702,5, concluindo-se que o projeto é viável nos mercados voluntários e inviável no mercado regulado.

ABSTRACTThe aim of this study was to estimate the biomass and CO2 sink and evaluate the economic viability of the generation of carbon credits in the Environmentally Protected Area (EPA) of Serra de Baturité, Ceara state, Brazil. The assessment of aboveground biomass was estimated by the non-destructive method, and the economic criteria used to evaluate were the Net Present Value (VPL), Equivalent Annual Value (EAV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). The results show that the rainforest of the Serra de Baturité EPA sequestered 84.63 MtCO2e and that, according to market prices and costs in 2012, forestry projects for carbon sequestration can generate an EAV of R$ 1,336 (IRR: 21%) per hectare if it is sold in the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) market, R$ 2,138 (IRR: 18%) if it is sold in the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) market, and R$ - 702.5 if it is sold in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) regulated market. In short, the project is viable if carbon credits are sold in the voluntary markets, otherwise it is unviable.