Abstract Dissolved gas analysis (DGA) has been applied for decades as the main predictive maintenance technique for diagnosing incipient faults in power transformers since the decomposition of the mineral insulating oil (MIO) produces gases that remain dissolved in the liquid phase. Nevertheless, the most known diagnostic methods are based on findings of simplified thermodynamic and compositional models for the thermal decomposition of MIO, in addition to empirical data. The simulation results obtained from these models do not satisfactorily reproduce the empirical data. This paper proposes a flexible thermodynamic model enhanced with a kinetic approach and selects, among four compositional models, the one offering the best performance for the simulation of thermal decomposition of MIO. The simulation results obtained from the proposed model showed better adequacy to reported data than the results obtained from the classical models. The proposed models may be applied in the development of a phenomenologically-based diagnostic method.

This paper presents the utilization of a stochastic global optimization method for the problem of parameter estimation in thermodynamic models. The method is based on an adaptation of the simulated annealing method to continuous variables. The proposed approach is applied to a vapor-solid equilibrium with supercritical carbon dioxide as solvent. Numerical results indicate that the simulated annealing method calculated a set of parameter values associated with considerably smaller errors as compared with a traditional method of local optimization.

Process simulation involves the evaluation of output variables by the specification of input variables and process parameters. However, in a real process, input data and parameters cannot be known without uncertainty. This fact may limit the utilization of simulation results to predict plant behavior. In order to achieve a more realistic analysis, the procedure of stochastic simulation can be conducted. This technique is based on a large set of simulation runs where input variables and parameters are randomly selected according to adequate probability density functions. The objective of this work is to illustrate the application of a stochastic simulation procedure to the process of fractionation of orange essential oil, using supercritical carbon dioxide in a multistage extraction column. Analysis of the proposed example demonstrates the importance of the stochastic simulation to develop more reliable designs and operating conditions for a supercritical fluid extraction process.