Abstract The need for the identification of risk factors associated to COVID-19 disease severity remains urgent. Patients’ care and resource allocation can be potentially different and are defined based on the current classification of disease severity. This classification is based on the analysis of clinical parameters and routine blood tests, which are not standardized across the globe. Some laboratory test alterations have been associated to COVID-19 severity, although these data are conflicting partly due to the different methodologies used across different studies. This study aimed to construct and validate a disease severity prediction model using machine learning (ML). Seventy-two patients admitted to a Brazilian hospital and diagnosed with COVID-19 through RT-PCR and/or ELISA, and with varying degrees of disease severity, were included in the study. Their electronic medical records and the results from daily blood tests were used to develop a ML model to predict disease severity. Using the above data set, a combination of five laboratorial biomarkers was identified as accurate predictors of COVID-19 severe disease with a ROC-AUC of 0.80 ± 0.13. Those biomarkers included prothrombin activity, ferritin, serum iron, ATTP and monocytes. The application of the devised ML model may help rationalize clinical decision and care. COVID19 COVID 19 COVID-1 urgent Patients globe studies ML. . (ML) Seventytwo Seventy two RTPCR RT PCR andor or ELISA set ROCAUC ROC AUC 080 0 80 0.8 013 13 0.13 activity ferritin iron monocytes COVID1 1 COVID- (ML 08 8 0. 01 0.1

RESUMO Objetivo: Estimar a probabilidade da ocorrência de infecção pelos vírus das hepatites B (HBV) e C (HCV) em diferentes estratos socioeconômicos da população de Recife, Nordeste do Brasil. Métodos: Estudo realizado com base em amostras obtidas em um inquérito de residentes de um grande centro urbano que teve base populacional e amostragem estratificada com seleção aleatória dos domicílios por meio do pacote “Amostra Brasil” no software R. A pesquisa do antígeno de superfície do HBV (HBsAg) e do anti-HCV foi realizada por testes imunocromatográficos. Nos casos positivos para HBsAg, foram realizadas pesquisas do anti-HBc e do HBeAg por quimioluminescência, bem como do HBV-DNA, por meio de PCR em tempo real. Para os casos positivos para anti-HCV, foi repetida a pesquisa desse anticorpo por quimioluminescência e do HCV-RNA por PCR em tempo real. A ocorrência de casos HBsAg e anti-HCV na população geral foi estimada com base em uma distribuição teórica binomial negativa. Resultados: Dentre 2.070 amostras examinadas, cinco (0,24%) foram HBsAg e duas (0,1%) anti-HCV positivas. A maioria dos casos tinha cor de pele autorreferida como preta/parda (6/7), nível de escolaridade até o ensino médio (6/7), companheiro fixo (5/7) e morava em área de baixo estrato socioeconômico (5/7). Conclusão: A ocorrência de HBsAg e anti-HCV foi inferior às anteriormente encontradas em estudos de base populacional e pouco menor do que as estimativas mais recentes. Indivíduos que apresentam menor condição socioeconômica devem ser alvo prioritário das políticas públicas de saúde. Objetivo (HBV HCV (HCV Recife Brasil Métodos Amostra R (HBsAg antiHCV anti imunocromatográficos antiHBc HBc HBVDNA, HBVDNA DNA, DNA HBV-DNA real antiHCV, HCV, HCVRNA RNA negativa Resultados 2070 2 070 2.07 examinadas 0,24% 024 0 24 (0,24% 0,1% 01 1 (0,1% positivas pretaparda preta parda 6/7, 67 6/7 , 6 7 (6/7) 5/7 57 5 (5/7 5/7. . Conclusão recentes saúde 207 07 2.0 0,24 02 (0,24 0,1 (0,1 6/ (6/7 5/ (5/ 20 2. 0,2 (0,2 0, (0, (6/ (5 (0 (6 (

ABSTRACT Objective: To estimate the probability of infection with hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) viruses in different socioeconomic strata of the population of Recife, Northeast Brazil. Methods: Study carried out from samples obtained in a survey of residents of a large urban center that had a population base and stratified sampling with random selection of households using the “Brazil Sample” package in the R software. HBV (HBsAg) and anti-HCV was performed using immunochromatographic tests. In cases positive for HBsAg, anti-HBc and HBeAg were tested using chemiluminescence, as well as HBV-DNA using real-time PCR. For cases positive for anti-HCV, the search for this antibody was repeated by chemiluminescence and for HCV-RNA by real-time PCR. The occurrence of HBsAg and anti-HCV cases in the general population was estimated based on a theoretical negative binomial distribution. Results: Among 2,070 samples examined, 5 (0.24%) were HBsAg and 2 (0.1%) anti-HCV positive. The majority of cases had self-reported skin color as black/brown (6/7), education level up to high school (6/7), a steady partner (5/7) and lived in an area of low socioeconomic status (5/7). Conclusion : The occurrence of HBsAg and anti-HCV was lower than those previously found in population-based studies and slightly lower than the most recent estimates. Individuals with lower socioeconomic status should be a priority target of public health policies. Objective (HBV HCV (HCV Recife Brazil Methods Sample software (HBsAg antiHCV anti tests antiHBc HBc HBVDNA DNA realtime real time PCR antiHCV, HCV, HCVRNA RNA distribution Results 2070 070 2,07 examined 0.24% 024 0 24 (0.24% 0.1% 01 1 (0.1% selfreported self reported blackbrown black brown 6/7, 67 6/7 , 6 7 (6/7) 5/7 57 (5/7 5/7. . populationbased estimates policies 207 07 2,0 0.24 02 (0.24 0.1 (0.1 6/ (6/7 5/ (5/ 20 2, 0.2 (0.2 0. (0. (6/ (5 (0 (6 (

ABSTRACT Objective: To estimate the probability of infection with hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) viruses in different socioeconomic strata of the population of Recife, Northeast Brazil. Methods: Study carried out from samples obtained in a survey of residents of a large urban center that had a population base and stratified sampling with random selection of households using the “Brazil Sample” package in the R software. HBV (HBsAg) and anti-HCV was performed using immunochromatographic tests. In cases positive for HBsAg, anti-HBc and HBeAg were tested using chemiluminescence, as well as HBV-DNA using real-time PCR. For cases positive for anti-HCV, the search for this antibody was repeated by chemiluminescence and for HCV-RNA by real-time PCR. The occurrence of HBsAg and anti-HCV cases in the general population was estimated based on a theoretical negative binomial distribution. Results: Among 2,070 samples examined, 5 (0.24%) were HBsAg and 2 (0.1%) anti-HCV positive. The majority of cases had self-reported skin color as black/brown (6/7), education level up to high school (6/7), a steady partner (5/7) and lived in an area of low socioeconomic status (5/7). Conclusion : The occurrence of HBsAg and anti-HCV was lower than those previously found in population-based studies and slightly lower than the most recent estimates. Individuals with lower socioeconomic status should be a priority target of public health policies.

RESUMO Objetivo: Estimar a probabilidade da ocorrência de infecção pelos vírus das hepatites B (HBV) e C (HCV) em diferentes estratos socioeconômicos da população de Recife, Nordeste do Brasil. Métodos: Estudo realizado com base em amostras obtidas em um inquérito de residentes de um grande centro urbano que teve base populacional e amostragem estratificada com seleção aleatória dos domicílios por meio do pacote “Amostra Brasil” no software R. A pesquisa do antígeno de superfície do HBV (HBsAg) e do anti-HCV foi realizada por testes imunocromatográficos. Nos casos positivos para HBsAg, foram realizadas pesquisas do anti-HBc e do HBeAg por quimioluminescência, bem como do HBV-DNA, por meio de PCR em tempo real. Para os casos positivos para anti-HCV, foi repetida a pesquisa desse anticorpo por quimioluminescência e do HCV-RNA por PCR em tempo real. A ocorrência de casos HBsAg e anti-HCV na população geral foi estimada com base em uma distribuição teórica binomial negativa. Resultados: Dentre 2.070 amostras examinadas, cinco (0,24%) foram HBsAg e duas (0,1%) anti-HCV positivas. A maioria dos casos tinha cor de pele autorreferida como preta/parda (6/7), nível de escolaridade até o ensino médio (6/7), companheiro fixo (5/7) e morava em área de baixo estrato socioeconômico (5/7). Conclusão: A ocorrência de HBsAg e anti-HCV foi inferior às anteriormente encontradas em estudos de base populacional e pouco menor do que as estimativas mais recentes. Indivíduos que apresentam menor condição socioeconômica devem ser alvo prioritário das políticas públicas de saúde.

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: To verify the effectiveness of screening for tuberculosis (TB) on all-cause mortality and tuberculosis cases in newly diagnosed HIV-infected patients through a clinical algorithm based on recommendations of the World Health Organization. METHODS: From March 2014 to April 2016, a pragmatic randomized clinical trial was conducted with newly diagnosed and TB-free HIV-infected adults undergoing antiretroviral therapy for up to one month at a major tertiary hospital for HIV in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. Participants were randomized into intervention and control groups using an automatically-generated random list, and followed-up for at least 6 months. The intervention group was screened for TB at hospital admission and at every follow-up visit through a series of questions addressing TB-related symptoms (cough, fever, night sweating, and weight loss). Patients presenting with any of these symptoms were referred to a pulmonologist and underwent sputum smear microscopy, sputum culture, and rapid molecular testing (GeneXpert). When at least one test result came back positive, TB treatment was initiated. In turn, if patients tested negative but presented with severe clinal symptoms, TB preventive treatment was initiated. Screening for TB was not performed systematically in the control group. The primary outcome assessed in this study was death from all causes, and secondary outcomes included sensitivity and specificity of this screening test, as well as its detection time. RESULTS: This study evaluated 581 patients, 377 in the intervention group (64.9%) and 204 in the control group (35.1%). In total, 36 patients died during the follow-up period. Of these, 26 (6.9%) were from the intervention group, reaching a cumulative mortality coefficient of 69 per 1,000 inhabitants, and 10 (4.9%) from the control group (p = 0.341), with a cumulative mortality coefficient of 49 per 1,000 inhabitants (p = 0.341).

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: To verify the effectiveness of screening for tuberculosis (TB) on all-cause mortality and tuberculosis cases in newly diagnosed HIV-infected patients through a clinical algorithm based on recommendations of the World Health Organization. METHODS: From March 2014 to April 2016, a pragmatic randomized clinical trial was conducted with newly diagnosed and TB-free HIV-infected adults undergoing antiretroviral therapy for up to one month at a major tertiary hospital for HIV in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. Participants were randomized into intervention and control groups using an automatically-generated random list, and followed-up for at least 6 months. The intervention group was screened for TB at hospital admission and at every follow-up visit through a series of questions addressing TB-related symptoms (cough, fever, night sweating, and weight loss). Patients presenting with any of these symptoms were referred to a pulmonologist and underwent sputum smear microscopy, sputum culture, and rapid molecular testing (GeneXpert). When at least one test result came back positive, TB treatment was initiated. In turn, if patients tested negative but presented with severe clinal symptoms, TB preventive treatment was initiated. Screening for TB was not performed systematically in the control group. The primary outcome assessed in this study was death from all causes, and secondary outcomes included sensitivity and specificity of this screening test, as well as its detection time. RESULTS: This study evaluated 581 patients, 377 in the intervention group (64.9%) and 204 in the control group (35.1%). In total, 36 patients died during the follow-up period. Of these, 26 (6.9%) were from the intervention group, reaching a cumulative mortality coefficient of 69 per 1,000 inhabitants, and 10 (4.9%) from the control group (p = 0.341), with a cumulative mortality coefficient of 49 per 1,000 inhabitants (p = 0.341).