Resumo A partir de uma perspectiva da Economia Política, o artigo analisa os governos de Lula e Dilma Rousseff, enfocando o relacionamento entre a política macroeconômica e seus condicionantes políticos, econômicos e sociais. Mostra que tais governos executaram com relativo êxito um projeto de redistribuição de renda, porém, ao contrário de parte da literatura, defende que os mesmos não podem ser caracterizados, a rigor, nem como neoliberais ou, tampouco, como desenvolvimentistas. Defende, ainda, a hipótese de que a “nova matriz macroeconômica” do governo Rousseff representou mais do que mera alteração na política econômica: constituiu-se em ponto de inflexão nos governos petistas, pois significou o desfazimento de umpacto de coalizão de classesfirmado por Lula com segmentos empresariais, o qual os respaldava desde a “Carta ao Povo Brasileiro” (2002). A partir de 2008, a crise econômica internacional, o processo de desindustrialização em marcha e um conjunto de condições permissivas evidenciaram os limites da coalizão em vigor, dificultando a continuidade do projeto redistributivo.

Abstract From a political economy perspective, this paper analyzes the Lula and Rousseff administrations in Brazil, focusing on the relationship between macroeconomic policy and its political, economic and social constraints. It shows that both administrations implemented relatively successful projects of income redistribution. However, contradicting part of the literature, the paper advocates that they cannot be characterized as neoliberal nor developmentalist. It also advocates that the “new macroeconomic matrix”, set forward by the Rousseff administration, represented more than a mere change in economic policy: it constituted an inflection point in the Workers’ Party (PT) administrations, since it meant the undoing of a “classes coalition pact” agreed between Lula and businesses segments, which supported PT’s governments since the “Letter to the Brazilian People” (2002). As of 2008, the conjunction of a world economic crises, ongoing deindustrialization and a set of permissive conditions exposed the limits of the coalition in force, hindering the continuity of the redistributive project.

Resumo O presente artigo busca fornecer uma ferramenta analítica, de cunho institucional e heterodoxo, a ser empregada ao conceito de dependência cultural engenhado por Celso Furtado. Aqui, uma investigação ao cerne da dependência furtadiana será complementada pela apreciação da dinâmica institucional que subjaz as relações econômicas de produção e poder. A partir do casamento dessas distintas e complementares tradições do pensamento econômico um modelo de desempenho de longo prazo para economias subdesenvolvidas, institucional e culturalmente dependentes, será apresentado, formalizando assim o que significa estar aprisionado a um padrão produtivo subdesenvolvido.

Abstract The present article seeks to present an institutional and heterodox analytical framework with which one can study Furtado’s cultural dependency concept. Here, an investigation towards the core of the furtadian dependency will be complemented by comments on the institutional dynamics underlying economic relations of production and power. Through the union of these distinct but complementary traditions in economic thought, a long-term model for underdeveloped economic performance will be presented. With such a model, we aim to display how institutionally and culturally dependent economies become locked-in to a given, underdeveloped, pattern of production.

ABSTRACT Purpose: This study questions whether there is a Kaldor’s fifth law and tests whether the size of the intermediate services sector contributes to the growth of the industrial sector. Originality/Value: The laws proposed by Kaldor consider that the industrial sector contributes to economic growth and affirm that the growth of this sector depends on the existing demand for industrial products. If this new law is corroborated we have the initial evidences that the growth of the service sector contributes to the growth of the industry. Design/methodological/approach: The existence of this new law is tested through the estimation of panel VAR models for eight developed countries in the period 1980-2009. Findings: The growth of the service sector causes Granger to increase industrial productivity, industrial density and economic complexity. The causality test shows that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between the growth of the service sector and the industrial density and between the growth of the service sector and the Economic Complexity Index.

Brazil (1955-2005): 25 years of catching-up, 25 years of falling behind. The present paper discusses the Brazilian industrial development under a neo-schumpeterian perspective in the period after 1955. The hypothesis is that, in the last 50 years, Brazil spent the first 25 years catching up and, next, the following 25 years falling behind. The 1955-1980 period, by means of international funding, allowed catching up with the paradigm in maturation within the fourth technological revolution. However, in this period, it was determined the main debilitating elements for the country's entrance in the new techno-economical paradigm of the fifth technological revolution which emerged in the middle of the 70s. It is in the strategy to internationalize the economy, granting the mutinational companies the key-sectors of the national economy dynamics during the catching up period, the main element of dependence in the journey that conditions the current performance, responsible for technology subordination and keeps the Brazilian economy with low dynamism.

O presente artigo aplica as abordagens institucionalista e neoschumpeteriana para compreender a dinâmica de desenvolvimento industrial e a consequente evolução do desequilíbrio econômico do Rio Grande do Sul. A hipótese é que se originaram dois path dependencies, um dinâmico e outro não, determinados, amplamente, por fatores tecnológicos e pelas matrizes institucionais das duas "metades". Elementos, de larga duração, presentes no percurso original, como direitos de propriedade, aprendizagem, estrutura social, ideologia, hábitos, políticas públicas e inovações, produziram estruturas industriais locais e particulares, capazes de explicar a trajetória de desenvolvimento industrial e o desequilíbrio regional contemporâneo deste estado. A análise evolucionária mostra dois períodos cruciais para o entendimento do desenvolvimento industrial gaúcho: o começo da Primeira República e o início da segunda metade do século XX. Nesses dois momentos, a economia gaúcha encontrava-se em crise, vindo logo em seguida a reestruturar-se. A região responsável pela mudança tecno-produtiva, nos dois períodos, foi a Metade Norte, consolidando-se como matriz industrial dinâmica do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul.

This present paper applies both the institutionalistic and neo-Schumpeterian approaches in order to understand the dynamics of industrial development and the consequent evolution of the economic unbalance of the State of Rio Grande do Sul. The hypothesis is that two path dependencies were originated, one was dynamic and the other was not. Such path dependencies were determined widely by technological factors and by the institutional matrix of the two "halves". Present in the original path, elements of long duration such as ownership rights, learning, social structure, ideology, habits, public policies and inovations, all produced local private industries, which explain the course of industrial development and the regional stability of this State. The evolutionary analysis shows two crucial periods for the understanding of the industrial development of Rio Grande do Sul: the beginning of the Old Republic and the beginning of the second half of the 20th Century. In both those moments, Rio Grande do Sul's economy was going through a crisis, but soon afterward it was restructured. The Northern Half was the region responsible for the technoproductive change in both periods, thus consolidating itself as the dynamic industrial matrix.