Abstract As the largest carbon reservoir in terrestrial ecosystems, soils play a critical role in food production, mitigation and adaption to climate change, and sustainability of agroecosystems. In this context, the aim of this study is to estimate variations in soil carbon stocks resulting from land use and management changes in different biomes that compose the Bacia Estendida do Rio São Francisco (BESF - Extended São Francisco River Basin), between 1985 and 2017. For this, remote sensing data and information from the IBGE agriculture and livestock census were used, in addition to emission factors to estimate soil organic carbon (SOC) changes. The results indicate that BESF had about 5.70 million ha degraded in the analyzed period, in addition to an increase of 0.72 Tg C year-1 in SOC stocks. The sub-medium São Francisco River basin recorded the highest SOC gain, with an increase of 0.54 Tg C ha-1; on the other hand, the sub-medium São Francisco River sub-basin had the greatest SOC losses, with an estimated reduction of 0.07 Tg C year-1. In short, this study provides important evidence on changes in SOC stocks in the region, emphasizing the importance of native vegetation conversion to agriculture and livestock systems under sustainable soil management for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and maintaining soil quality. ecosystems production change agroecosystems context Basin, Basin , Basin) 198 2017 used (SOC 570 5 70 5.7 period 072 0 72 0.7 year1 year 1 year- submedium sub medium gain 054 54 0.5 ha1 ha-1 hand subbasin losses 007 07 0.0 year1. 1. short region quality 19 201 57 7 5. 0. 05 ha- 00 20 2

Resumo Previsões do comportamento das mudanças que ocorrem no uso do solo são indispensáveis para um planejamento urbano adequado, indicando áreas mais propensas à ocupação humana. Dessa forma, o estudo tem por objetivo prever a expansão urbana da cidade de Fortaleza, localizada no nordeste do Brasil, utilizando um modelo dinâmico que combina autômatos celulares com as Cadeias de Markov (CA-Markov). Ele foi desenvolvido por meio de três etapas: aquisição e processamento dos dados; espacialização dos dados; e, modelagem dinâmica espacial. A matriz de transição markoviana forneceu o percentual de mudanças de uma classe para a outra ao algoritmo de simulação. Dados reais de entrada de uso do solo dos anos de 2009 e 2017 mostraram uma transição de 26,50% de áreas vegetadas para áreas urbanizadas. A validação do modelo apresentou excelentes resultados (índice de similaridade fuzzy superior a 0.8) para realizar simulações futuras (2020 até 2025). Segundo as previsões, em 2025, dos 297,10 km² de área urbanizada e vegetada, 82,43% serão de área urbanizada e apenas 17,57% serão de área vegetada. O modelo de simulação pode ser alimentado por mudanças que aconteçam dentro do período previsto, sendo incluídas na simulação como variáveis dinâmicas, obtendo uma simulação compatível com essas mudanças.

Abstract Forecasts of the behaviour of changes that occur in land use are indispensable for adequate urban planning, indicating areas more prone to human occupation. Thus, the study aims to predict the urban expansion of the city of Fortaleza, located in northeastern Brazil, using a dynamic model that combines cellular automata with the Markov Chains (CA-Markov). It was developed through three steps: data acquisition and processing; spatialization of data; and, dynamic spatial modelling. The Markovian transition matrix provided the percentage of changes from one class to another to the simulation algorithm. Actual land use input data for the years 2009 and 2017 showed a transition of 26.50% from vegetated to urbanized areas. The validation of the model showed excellent results (fuzzy similarity index greater than 0.8) to perform future simulations (2020 to 2025). According to forecasts, in 2025, of the 297.10 km² of urbanized and vegetated area, 82.43% will be urbanized, and only 17.57% will be vegetated. The simulation model can be fed by changes that happen within the predicted period, included in the simulation as dynamic variables, obtaining a simulation compatible with these changes.