RESUMO Objetivo. Avaliar a relevância do fluxo de pessoas entre comunidades em comparação com a vacinação e tipo de vetor para a propagação e potenciais surtos de febre amarela em uma comunidade de destino livre da doença. Métodos. Usando um modelo SEIRV-SEI para humanos e vetores, foram aplicadas simulações numéricas aos seguintes cenários: (1) migração de uma comunidade endêmica para uma comunidade de destino livre da doença, comparando o desempenho de Haemagogus janthinomys e de Aedes aegypti como vetores; (2) migração através de uma comunidade de trânsito localizada em uma rota migratória, onde a doença é endêmica, para uma comunidade de destino livre da doença; e (3) efeitos de diferentes taxas de vacinação na comunidade de destino, considerando-se a vacinação dos migrantes ao chegarem. Resultados. Os resultados não revelaram diferenças marcantes entre os cenários 1 e 2. O tipo de vetor e a cobertura vacinal na comunidade de destino são mais relevantes para a ocorrência de surtos do que as taxas de migração; o vetor H. janthinomys é mais efetivo do que A. aegypti. Conclusões. Na medida em que a vacinação é mais determinante para um potencial surto que as taxas de migração, a vacinação de migrantes na chegada pode ser uma das medidas mais efetivas contra a febre amarela. Além disso, o H. janthinomys é um vetor mais competente do que o A. aegypti em densidades similares, mas a presença de A. aegypti é um alerta para manter a vacinação acima dos níveis recomendados.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Evaluar la importancia del flujo de personas entre comunidades, en comparación con la vacunación y el tipo de vector, para la propagación y los posibles brotes de fiebre amarilla en una comunidad de acogida libre de la enfermedad. Métodos. Con el empleo de un modelo SEIRV—SEI para personas y vectores, aplicamos simulaciones numéricas a las siguientes situaciones hipotéticas: 1) migración desde una comunidad con endemicidad a una comunidad de acogida libre de la enfermedad, en la que se compararon los resultados producidos por Haemagogus janthinomys y Aedes aegypti como vectores; 2) migración a través de una comunidad de tránsito situada en una ruta migratoria, donde la enfermedad es endémica, hacia otra comunidad libre de la enfermedad; y 3) efectos de tasas de vacunación diferentes en la comunidad de acogida, tomando en consideración la vacunación de las personas migrantes a su llegada. Resultados. Los resultados no muestran diferencias notables entre las situaciones 1 y 2. En cuanto a la aparición de brotes, tanto la cobertura vacunal en la comunidad de acogida como el tipo de vector tienen más importancia que las tasas de migración; y H. janthinomys muestra mayor eficacia que A. aegypti. Conclusiones. Dado que, para determinar la aparición de un posible brote, la vacunación tiene mayor importancia que las tasas de migración, la vacunación de las personas migrantes a su llegada puede ser una de las medidas más eficaces contra la fiebre amarilla. Además, a densidades similares, H. janthinomys es un vector más competente que A. aegypti, por lo que la presencia de A. aegypti constituye una señal de alerta para mantener la vacunación por encima de los niveles recomendados.

ABSTRACT Objective. To assess how relevant the flow of people between communities is, compared to vaccination and type of vector, on the spread and potential outbreaks of yellow fever in a disease-free host community. Methods. Using a SEIRV-SEI model for humans and vectors, we applied numerical simulations to the scenarios: (1) migration from an endemic community to a disease-free host community, comparing the performance of Haemagogus janthinomys and Aedes aegypti as vectors; (2) migration through a transit community located on a migratory route, where the disease is endemic, to a disease-free one; and (3) effects of different vaccination rates in the host community, considering the vaccination of migrants upon arrival. Results. Results show no remarkable differences between scenarios 1 and 2. The type of vector and vaccination coverage in the host community are more relevant for the occurrence of outbreaks than migration rates, with H. janthinomys being more effective than A. aegypti. Conclusions. With vaccination being more determinant for a potential outbreak than migration rates, vaccinating migrants on arrival may be one of the most effective measures against yellow fever. Furthermore, H. janthinomys is a more competent vector than A. aegypti at similar densities, but the presence of A. aegypti is a warning to maintain vaccination above recommended levels.

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: After validation in multiple types of liver disease patients, the MELD score was adopted as a standard by which liver transplant candidates with end-stage liver disease were prioritized for organ allocation in the United States since 2002, and in Brazil, since 2006. AIMS: To analyze the mortality profile of patients on the liver transplant waiting list correlated to MELD score at the moment of transplantation. METHODS: This study used the data from the Secretary of Health of the São Paulo State, Brazil, which listed 22,522 patients, from 2006 (when MELD score was introduced in Brazil) until June 2009. Patients with acute hepatic failure and tumors were included as well. We also considered the mortality of both non-transplanted and transplanted patients as a function of the MELD score at presentation. RESULTS: Our model showed that the best MELD score for patients on the liver transplant waiting list associated to better results after liver transplantation was 26. CONCLUSIONS: We found that the best score for applying to liver transplant waiting list in the State of São Paulo was 26. This is the score that minimizes the mortality in both non-transplanted and liver transplanted patients.

RESUMO RACIONAL: Desde 2002, após validação em múltiplos tipos de hepatopatias, o escore MELD foi adotado como padrão pelo qual os candidatos a transplante de fígado com doença hepática terminal têm sido priorizados para alocação de órgãos nos Estados Unidos, e em 2006 no Brasil. OBJETIVOS: Analisar a mortalidade de pacientes em lista de espera para transplante de fígado correlacionando com o MELD, no momento do transplante. MÉTODOS: Foram utilizados os dados da Secretaria de Saúde do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, onde foram listados 22.522 pacientes, desde 2006 (quando o escore MELD foi introduzido no Brasil) até junho de 2009. Foram incluídos pacientes com falência hepática e tumores. A mortalidade de pacientes não transplantados e transplantados também foi considerada em função do escore MELD. RESULTADOS: Nosso modelo mostrou que o melhor valor do MELD, em pacientes em lista de espera para transplante e com melhores resultados, foi de 26. Este valor minimiza mortalidade em pacientes não transplantados bem comem pacientes na lista de espera para transplante de fígado. CONCLUSÕES: O escore MELD ótimo para entrar na lista de espera para transplante de fígado, no estado de São Paulo, é em torno de 26. Esse é o valor que minimiza a mortalidade tanto dos pacientes não transplantados em lista de espera, quanto dos submetidos à transplante de fígado.

OBJECTIVES: With the declining numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, social distancing measures have gradually been lifted. However, the risk of a surge in the number of cases cannot be overlooked. Even with the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as restrictions on mass gatherings, wearing of masks, and complete or partial closure of schools, other public health measures may help control the epidemic. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic regardless of the use of diagnostic testing. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model that includes isolation of symptomatic individuals and tracing of contacts to assess the effects of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo. RESULTS: For a selection efficacy (proportion of isolated contacts who are infected) of 80%, cases and deaths may be reduced by 80% after 60 days when 5000 symptomatic individuals are isolated per day, each of them together with 10 contacts. On the other hand, for a selection efficacy of 20%, the number of cases and deaths may be reduced by approximately 40% and 50%, respectively, compared with the scenario in which no contact-tracing strategy is implemented. CONCLUSION: Contact tracing of symptomatic individuals may potentially be an alternative strategy when the number of diagnostic tests available is not sufficient for massive testing.

OBJECTIVE: To compare responses to a cardiopulmonary exercise test on land versus on an underwater treadmill, to assess the cardiorespiratory performance of coronary artery disease patients while immersed in warm water and to compare with the performance of healthy individuals. METHODS: The sample population consisted of 40 subjects, which included 20 coronary artery disease patients aged 63.7±8.89 years old, functional class I and II, according to the New York Hearth Association, and 20 healthy subjects aged 64.7±7.09 years old. The statistical significances were calculated through an ANOVA test with a (1 - β) power of 0.861. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00989248 (22). RESULTS: Significant differences were uncovered in coronary artery disease group regarding the variables heart beats (HB), (p>0.01), oxygen consumption (VO2), (p>0.01) and carbon dioxide production (VCO2) (p<0.01). Also, for the same group, in relation to the environment, water versus on land for HB, VO2, VCO2 and oxygen for each heart beat (VO2/HB) all of than (p<0.01). The stages for data collected featured the subject’s performance throughout the experiment, and within the given context, variables rating of perceived exertion (RPE), HB, VO2, VCO2 and VO2/HB (p<0.01) showed significant interactions between test stages and environment. Additionally, there was a significant interaction between the etiology and the test stages for the variables HB, VO2 and VCO2 (p<0.01). Electrocardiographic changes compatible with myocardial ischemia or arrhythmia were not observed. The subjects exhibited lower scores on Borg’s perceived exertion scale in the water than at every one of the test stages on land (p<0.01). CONCLUSION: This study show that a cardiopulmonary exercise test can be safely conducted in subjects in immersion and that the procedures, resources and equipment used yielded replicable and reliable data. Significant differences observed in water versus on land allow us to conclude that coronary artery disease patients are able to do physical exercise in water and that the physiological effects of immersion do not present any risk for such patients, as exercise was well tolerated by all subjects.

OBJECTIVES: Dengue cases range from asymptomatic to severe, eventually leading to hospitalization and death. Timely and appropriate management is critical to reduce morbidity. Since 1980, dengue has spread throughout Brazil, affecting an increasing number of individuals. This paper describes age and regional differences in dengue’s clinical presentation and associated risk of hospitalization based on more than 5 million cases reported to the Brazilian Ministry of Health from 2000-2014. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of ∼5,450,000 dengue cases, relating clinical manifestations and the risk of hospitalization to age, gender, previous infection by dengue, dengue virus serotype, years of formal education, delay to first attendance and the occurrence of dengue during outbreaks and in different Brazilian regions. RESULTS: Complicated forms of dengue occurred more frequently among those younger than 10 years (3.12% vs 1.92%) and those with dengue virus 2 infection (7.65% vs 2.42%), with a delay to first attendance >2 days (3.18% vs 0.82%) and with ≤4 years of formal education (2.02% vs 1.46%). The risk of hospitalization was higher among those aged 6-10 years old (OR 4.57; 95% CI 1.43-29.96) and those who were infected by dengue virus 2 (OR 6.36; 95% CI 2.52-16.06), who lived in the Northeast region (OR 1.38; 95% CI 1.11-2.10) and who delayed first attendance by >5 days (composite OR 3.15; 95% CI 1.33-8.9). CONCLUSIONS: In Brazil, the occurrence of severe dengue and related hospitalization is associated with being younger than 10 years old, being infected by dengue virus 2 or 3, living in the Northeast region (the poorest and the second most populated) and delaying first attendance for more than 2 days.

We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.

Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup™, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.

Introduction Hematophagous Desmodus rotundus bats play an important role in the rabies lifecycle. This study describes the hematological profile of these bats before and after experimental infection with rabies virus. Methods Cells counts were performed in a Neubauer chamber. Results The average values of erythrocytes and leucocytes counts in blood before experimental infections were 9.97 × 106mm3 and 4.80 × 103mm3, respectively. Neutrophils represented 69.9% of white blood cells and the lymphocytes represented 26.9%. Following the experimental infections, the average numbers of erythrocytes and leucocytes was 9.43 × 106mm3 and 3.98 × 103mm3, respectively. Neutrophils represented 40% of white blood cells and the lymphocytes represented 59%. Conclusions The hematological profile given in this study can serve as reference values for D. rotundus bats.

O objetivo deste estudo foi descrever o desempenho de atenção de motoristas de caminhão e sua relação com o uso de anfetaminas. Os motoristas que relataram usar anfetaminas nos doze meses prévios à entrevista tiveram desempenho melhor em um teste de atenção sustentada. Apesar de inicialmente representar uma vantagem para motoristas, o uso de anfetaminas pode dificultar a direção segura. Os resultados sugerem a importância de supervisionar as leis que regulamentam o uso de anfetaminas no País.

The aim of this article was to describe the attention functioning of twenty-two truck drivers and its relationship with amphetamine use. Those drivers who reported using amphetamines in the twelve months previous to the interview had the best performance in a test evaluating sustained attention functioning. Although amphetamine use may initially seem advantageous to the drivers, it may actually impair safe driving. The findings suggest the importance of monitoring the laws regarding amphetamine use in this country.

El objetivo de éste estudio fue describir el desempeño de atención de choferes de camión y su relación con el uso de anfetaminas. Los choferes que informaron usar anfetaminas en los doce meses previos a la entrevista tuvieron mejor desempeño en la prueba de atención sustentada. A pesar de inicialmente representar una ventaja para los choferes, el uso de anfetaminas puede dificultar la dirección segura. Los resultados sugieren la importancia de supervisar las leyes que regularizan el uso de anfetaminas en el País.

O objetivo deste estudo foi descrever o desempenho de atenção de motoristas de caminhão e sua relação com o uso de anfetaminas. Os motoristas que relataram usar anfetaminas nos doze meses prévios à entrevista tiveram desempenho melhor em um teste de atenção sustentada. Apesar de inicialmente representar uma vantagem para motoristas, o uso de anfetaminas pode dificultar a direção segura. Os resultados sugerem a importância de supervisionar as leis que regulamentam o uso de anfetaminas no País.

The aim of this article was to describe the attention functioning of twenty-two truck drivers and its relationship with amphetamine use. Those drivers who reported using amphetamines in the twelve months previous to the interview had the best performance in a test evaluating sustained attention functioning. Although amphetamine use may initially seem advantageous to the drivers, it may actually impair safe driving. The findings suggest the importance of monitoring the laws regarding amphetamine use in this country.

El objetivo de éste estudio fue describir el desempeño de atención de choferes de camión y su relación con el uso de anfetaminas. Los choferes que informaron usar anfetaminas en los doce meses previos a la entrevista tuvieron mejor desempeño en la prueba de atención sustentada. A pesar de inicialmente representar una ventaja para los choferes, el uso de anfetaminas puede dificultar la dirección segura. Los resultados sugieren la importancia de supervisar las leyes que regularizan el uso de anfetaminas en el País.

Neste trabalho propomos um modelo matemático para a estimativa da força de infecção, da idade média de primo-infecção, da idade ótima para vacinação de rotina e do intervalo ótimo de cobertura vacina em uma campanha para a introdução da vacina contra a dengue. O modelo baseia-se em publicações anteriores de desenhos de estratégias de vacinação contra outras infecções e que resultaram em estratégias de vacinação no Brasil. O modelo foi aplicado em três áreas com níveis endêmicos de dengue distintos na cidade de Recife, Pernambuco. Nossos resultados apontam para uma idade ótima de vacinação na rotina de dois anos de idade e para um intervalo de vacinação em campanha entre três e 14 anos.

In this work we propose a mathematical approach to estimate the dengue force of infection, the average age of dengue first infection, the optimum age to vaccinate children against dengue in a routine fashion and the optimum age interval to introduce the dengue vaccine in a mass vaccination campaign. The model is based on previously published models for vaccination against other childhood infections, which resulted in actual vaccination programmes in Brazil. The model was applied for three areas of distinct levels of endemicity of the city of Recife in Northeastern State of Pernambuco, Brazil. Our results point to an optimal age to introduce the dengue vaccine in the routine immunization programme at two years of age and an age interval to introduce a mass vaccination between three and 14 years of age.

A dimensional analysis of the classical equations related to the dynamics of vector-borne infections is presented. It is provided a formal notation to complete the expressions for the Ross' Threshold Theorem, the Macdonald's basic reproduction "rate" and sporozoite "rate", Garret-Jones' vectorial capacity and Dietz-Molineaux-Thomas' force of infection. The analysis was intended to provide a formal notation that complete the classical equations proposed by these authors.

We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.

OBJETIVO: Reconhecer o nível de alfabetismo funcional de usuários do ambulatório do Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (HCMFUSP) com a finalidade de identificar recomendações para adequar a redação do TCLE ao nível de alfabetismo dos usuários, pois estes podem vir a ser sujeitos de pesquisa. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal quantitativo com 399 sujeitos. A amostra foi intencional, selecionada entre usuários dos ambulatórios do HCFMUSP. A coleta de dados utilizou instrumento que continha um texto em prosa compatível para a avaliação das habilidades de leitura necessárias para a compreensão de um TCLE. RESULTADOS: Mais de 46,6% dos entrevistados foram classificados como analfabetos funcionais. Desses, 12,7% sequer foram capazes de entender a tarefa proposta no texto lido. Apesar disto, quase 50% dos entrevistados declararam ter ao menos iniciado o ensino médio. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados e as orientações para a redação de texto centrada no leitor permitiu que elaborássemos recomendações para tornar os termos de consentimento mais fáceis de ler. Recomendamos que o pesquisador elabore o TCLE como um texto em estrutura narrativa, dirigido ao leitor, usando palavras e termos familiares, ou seja, termos comuns à linguagem dos sujeitos e à linguagem médica. Além de contribuir para melhorar a relação entre o sujeito e o pesquisador, acredita-se que estas recomendações possam contribuir para a diminuição do tempo de tramitação de projetos de pesquisa. Já que os problemas na redação do TCLE motivam boa parte das pendências que retardam este andamento.

OBJECTIVE: Define the literacy level of Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (HCMFUSP) outpatients, for the purpose of identifying recommendations to adapt writing of the informed consent form to the outpatients literacy level, since these can become the subject of research. METHODS: Quantitative cross sectional study with 399 subjects. The sample was intentional, selected from different outpatient care units of HCFMUSP. Data collection used an instrument that contained a text with prose compatible for assessment of reading skills needed for comprehension of the consent form. Results. More than 46.6% of the interviewees were classified as functionally illiterate, of these, 12.7% were even unable to understand the proposed task in the text they read . Nevertheless , nearly 50% of the interviewees reported having at least started high school . CONCLUSION: The results and the orientations for the text writing centered on the reader allowed us to make recommendations to render the consent form easier to read . We recommend that the researcher modifies the text to a structural narrative, addressed to the reader, using terms that are familiar., In other words, with terms common to the subjects' and to the medical language. In addition to improving the relationship between the subject and researcher, it is believed that these recommendations may reduce the time taken for the proceeding of research projects, since problems in the wording of consent forms contribute significantly to project delays.

OBJECTIVE: This research intends to discuss sexual harassment within the doctor-patient relationship based on four parameters: doctor's characteristics, accuser's characteristics, accusation characteristics, and the evaluation by the Medicine Council of São Paulo. METHOD: It is a descriptive, quantitative approach using a retrospective documental analysis. Studied subjects were doctors who were allegedly engaged in sexual harassment. This analysis considered all accusations made from January 2000 to December 2005 (n=150). RESULTS: For this type of sexual abuse, there was a prevalence of male professionals (96.6%) who committed abuse against female patients (90.3%) during adulthood (77.7%). The mean age of the accused was 46.87 years, ranging from 30-76 years, concentrated between 46-75 years. The intrinsic difficulty of understanding sexual harassment by a professional constrained ethical evaluation of the cases, with 24.1% of the cases being considered proceeding charges by the professional council. When the cases were recognized as proceeding, they were either filed (88.2%) or were considered to be ethical infringement (11.8%) becoming Professional Ethical Process (PEP). In the majority of proceeding cases (87%), there was a Police Occurrence Report enclosed. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The incidence of sexual abuse by professionals was independent of education, as the accused professionals came from a large variety of medical colleges, without significant differences related to institution. The predominance of accusations against older professionals may occur due to the frail personality structure that allows professional acting out. Objective evidence is very important in ethical evaluations compared to psychological and subjective evidence.