ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION To provide equal access, health care provision should be distributed across geodemographic space based on need. In Argentina, the social security, publicly funded health care and private health care subsectors are responsible for delivering health services. In the public subsector, which is responsible for providing primary and secondary care mainly to the uninsured population, supply of services is not always associated with need. The lack of coordination between levels and subsectors makes it difficult to transform need into demand. OBJECTIVE Design a methodology to systematically estimate need, demand and supply of primary health care services based on secondary data sources in order to assess potential mismatches in any geographical area. METHODS An ecological analysis was conducted based on outpatient visits in primary care in Bahía Blanca, Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. A mathematical approach was proposed to systematize data collection by census tract regarding estimated need (number of outpatient visits needed, by specialty, according to age- and sex-specific care protocols and the area’s demographics), demand (actual outpatient visits by specialty in each primary health care center), and supply (visit capacity or available appointment slots, taking into account number of personnel hours worked, by specialty). RESULTS Demand for outpatient visits exceeded need (299,731) by 24% while available visit capacity (993,903) could have covered more than twice the number demanded (370,881). Analysis of the three variables grouped by area found that supply correlated more closely with demand (ρ = 0.90) than with need (ρ = 0.68), while spatial analysis showed that supply distribution responded to need. Areas with greater need had a health facility relatively close by, although supply was often located in areas of lower need, and some areas struggle with relatively high need and insufficient supply. CONCLUSIONS Results suggest the need for some reconfiguration of primary health care in the study area. The proposed mechanism for estimating relationship among supply, demand and need is a useful tool to support decision-making.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the temporal variability of rainfall records (1951-2000) two representative stations for the basins of the streams El Pantanoso and El Negro, sub-basins of the upper basins of the rivers Sauce Corto and Sauce Grande respectively. Both rainfall stations are located on opposite sides of Ventania System. Behavioral characterization was performed through analysis of centrality values and dispersion of the data series. To that end, techniques for descriptive statistics traditionally associated with precipitation analysis were applied. From the annual precipitation analysis it was found larger inter-annual variability and dispersion of the values in El Pantanoso. Annual average values are 796.9 mm for El Pantanoso and 757.2 mm for Nonthué. A seasonal analysis showed that in all seasons of the year, rainfall is higher in El Pantanoso, with maximum differences of 15.5 mm in summer and a minimum of 3.3 mm in spring. Increasing values were observed in summer rainfall in both seasons from 1951 to 1960.

El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar la variabilidad temporal de los registros pluviométricos (1951-2000) de dos estaciones representativas de las cuencas de los arroyos El Pantanoso y El Negro, subcuencas de las cuencas altas de los ríos Sauce Corto y Sauce Grande respectivamente. Las dos estaciones pluviométricas están situadas en vertientes opuestas del Sistema de Ventania. La caracterización del comportamiento se realizó a través del análisis de valores de centralidad y dispersión de las series de datos. Para ello se aplicaron técnicas de la estadística descriptiva tradicionalmente asociadas al análisis de las precipitaciones. A partir del análisis anual de la precipitación se pudo comprobar la mayor variabilidad interanual y dispersión de los valores de El Pantanoso respecto a Nonthué. Los valores medios anuales son de 796,9 mm para El Pantanoso y de 757,2 mm para Nonthué. Con el análisis estacional se comprobó que en todas las estaciones del año, las lluvias son mayores en El Pantanoso, con diferencias máximas de 15,5 mm en verano y mínimas de 3,3 mm en primavera. Se observaron valores crecientes de las precipitaciones de verano en ambas estaciones desde el decenio 1951-60.