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O efeito das redistribuições dos códigos garbage na evolução da mortalidade por Doenças Crônicas no Brasil, 2010 a 2019
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Malta, Deborah Carvalho

; Teixeira, Renato Azeredo

; Souza, Juliana Bottoni de

; Aquino, Érika Carvalho de

; Dantas Júnior, Ademar B.

; Soares Filho, Adauto M.

; França, Elisabeth Barboza

; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria N.

; Souza, Fátima Marinho de

; Ishitani, Lenice Harumi

; Gomes, Crizian Saar

; Montenegro, Marli M. Silva

; Araújo, Valdelaine E. M. de

; Faria, Shirlei M. Costa

; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow

; Ribeiro, Antônio Luiz Pinho

Ciência & Saúde Coletiva

Journal Metrics
- Sobre o periódico
- SciELO Analytics

2025, Volume 30 N. 3 elocation e00492024

Abstract: Pt Es En | Text: Pt Es En | PDF: Pt | PDF: Es | PDF: En

Resumo O estudo objetivou estimar a mortalidade prematura (30 a 69 anos) por quatro grupos prioritários de DCNT no Brasil, no período de 2010 a 2019, comparando dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM) brutos, sem correção, dados do SIM corrigidos pela redistribuição dos CG e sub-registro e dados extraídos do estudo Carga Global de Doenças (GBD). As taxas de mortalidade prematura por DCNT mostraram redução no período analisado. Embora os métodos de correção tenham modificado pouco as tendências temporais, foi observado as taxas de mortalidade calculadas com os dados corrigidos foram expressivamente maiores que as sem correção. Essa variação foi heterogênea entre as Unidades Federadas. As taxas estimadas pelo método do SIM bruto variaram de 322,0 a 276,1 óbitos por 100 mil habitantes, enquanto as taxas do SIM redistribuído foram de 340,4 a 296,8 óbitos por 100 mil habitantes. As taxas estimadas para o GDB variaram de 371,6 a 323,0 óbitos por 100 mil habitantes. Em conclusão o presente estudo destaca a importância de se adotar métodos que possam ser aplicados para que tenhamos estatísticas relacionadas à mortalidade mais fidedignas, o que contribui para a melhoria contínua da definição das causas de morte no SIM.

Resumen Este estudio tuvo como objetivo estimar la mortalidad prematura (30-69 años) para cuatro grupos prioritarios de ENT en Brasil de 2010 a 2019, comparando datos brutos y no ajustados del Sistema de Información de Mortalidad (SIM), datos del SIM ajustados por redistribución del CB y subregistro, y datos extraídos del estudio de la Carga Global de Enfermedad (CGE). Las tasas de mortalidad prematura por ENT disminuyeron en el período analizado. Aunque los métodos de ajuste apenas modificaron las tendencias temporales, observamos que las tasas de mortalidad calculadas con datos ajustados fueron significativamente más altas que las sin ajuste. Esta variación fue heterogénea entre las Unidades Federadas. Las tasas estimadas por el método SIM bruto variaron de 322,0 a 276,1 defunciones por 100 mil habitantes, mientras que las tasas SIM redistribuidas variaron de 340,4 a 296,8 defunciones por 100 mil habitantes. Las tasas estimadas para la CGE variaron de 371,6 a 323,0 defunciones por 100 mil habitantes. En conclusión, este estudio resalta la importancia de adoptar métodos que puedan aplicarse para lograr estadísticas de mortalidad más confiables, que mejoren continuamente la definición de las causas de defunción en el SIM.

Abstract This study aimed to estimate premature mortality (30-69 years) for four priority NCD groups in Brazil from 2010 to 2019, comparing crude data from the Mortality Information System (SIM), SIM data adjusted by GC redistribution and underreporting, and data extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Premature mortality rates due to NCDs declined in the period analyzed. Although the adjustment methods hardly changed temporal trends, we observed that mortality rates calculated with adjusted data were significantly higher than those without adjustment. This variation was heterogeneous among the Federated Units. The rates estimated by the crude SIM method ranged from 322.0 to 276.1 deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants, while the redistributed SIM rates ranged from 340.4 to 296.8 deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants. The estimated rates for the GBD ranged from 371.6 to 323.0 deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants. In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of adopting methods that can be applied to achieve more reliable mortality statistics, which continuously improves the definition of death causes in the SIM.

https://doi.org/10.1590/1413-81232025303.00492024

Volume de Gordura Epicárdica está Associada com Disfunção Endotelial, mas Não com Calcificação Coronariana: Do ELSA-Brasil
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Martins, Karina P. M. P.

; Barreto, Sandhi M.

; Bos, Daniel

; Pedrosa, Jesiana

; Azevedo, Douglas R. M.

; Araújo, Larissa Fortunato Foppa, Murilo Duncan, Bruce B. Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P. Brant, Luisa C. C.

Arquivos Brasileiros de Cardiologia

Journal Metrics
- Sobre o periódico
- SciELO Analytics

dec 2022, Volume 119 N. 6 Pages 912 - 920

Abstract: Pt En | Text: Pt En | PDF: Pt | PDF: En

Resumo Fundamento O aumento no volume de gordura epicárdica (VGE) está relacionado com doença arterial coronariana (DAC), independentemente de gordura visceral ou subcutânea. O mecanismo dessa associação não é claro. O escore de cálcio coronariano (CC) e a disfunção endotelial estão relacionados com eventos coronarianos, mas não está bem esclarecido se o VGE está relacionado com esses marcadores. Objetivos Avaliar a associação entre VGE medido por método automatizado, fatores de risco cardiovasculares, escore de CC, e função endotelial. Métodos: Em 470 participantes do Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto LSA-Brasil com medidas de VGE, escore de CC e função endotelial, realizamos modelos multivariados para avaliar a relação entre fatore de risco cardiovascular e VGE (variável resposta), e entre VGE (variável explicativa), e função endotelial ou escore de CC. Valor de p<0,05 bilateral foi considerado estatisticamente significativo. Resultados A idade média foi 55 ± 8 anos, e 52,3% dos pacientes eram homens. O VGE médio foi 111mL (86-144), e a prevalência de escore de CC igual a zero foi 55%. Nas análises multivariadas, um VGE mais alto relacionou-se com sexo feminino, idade mais avançada, circunferência da cintura, e triglicerídeos (p<0,001 para todos). Um VGE mais alto foi associado com pior função endotelial: em comparação ao primeiro quartil, os valores de odds ratio para a amplitude de pulso basal foram (q2=1,22; IC95% 1,07-1,40; q3=1,50, IC95% 1,30-1,74; q4=1,50, IC95% 1,28-1,79) e para a razão de tonometria arterial periférica foram (q2=0,87; IC95% 0,81-0,95; q3=0,86, IC95% 0,79-0,94; q4=0,80, IC95% 0,73-0,89), mas não com escore de CC maior que zero. Conclusão Um VGE mais alto associou-se com comprometimento da função endotelial, mas não com escore de CC. Os resultados sugerem que o VGE esteja relacionado ao desenvolvimento de DAC por uma via diferente da via do CC, possivelmente pela piora da disfunção endotelial e doença microvascular.

Abstract Background The increase in epicardial fat volume (EFV) is related to coronary artery disease (CAD), independent of visceral or subcutaneous fat. The mechanism underlying this association is unclear. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) score and endothelial dysfunction are related to coronary events, but whether EFV is related to these markers needs further clarification. Objectives To evaluate the association between automatically measured EFV, cardiovascular risk factors, CAC, and endothelial function. Methods In 470 participants from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) with measures of EFV, CAC score and endothelial function, we performed multivariable models to evaluate the relation between cardiovascular risk factors and EFV (response variable), and between EFV (explanatory variable) and endothelial function variables or CAC score. Two-sided p <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results Mean age was 55 ± 8 years, 52.3% of patients were men. Mean EFV was 111mL (IQ 86-144), and the prevalence of CAC score=0 was 55%. In the multivariable analyses, increased EFV was related to female sex, older age, waist circumference, and triglycerides (p<0.001 for all). Higher EFV was associated with worse endothelial function: as compared with the first quartile, the odds ratio for basal pulse amplitude were (q2=1.22, 95%CI 1.07-1.40; q3=1.50, 95%CI 1.30-1.74; q4=1.50, 95%CI 1.28-1.79) and for peripheral arterial tonometry ratio were (q2=0.87, 95%CI 0.81-0.95; q3=0.86, 95%CI 0.79-0.94; q4=0.80, 95%CI 0.73-0.89), but not with CAC score>0. Conclusion Higher EFV was associated with impaired endothelial function, but not with CAC. The results suggest that EFV is related to the development of CAD through a pathway different from the CAC pathway, possibly through aggravation of endothelial dysfunction and microvascular disease.

https://doi.org/10.36660/abc.20210750

Volume de Gordura Epicárdica está Associada com Disfunção Endotelial, mas Não com Calcificação Coronariana: Do ELSA-Brasil
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Martins, Karina P. M. P.

; Barreto, Sandhi M.

; Bos, Daniel

; Pedrosa, Jesiana

; Azevedo, Douglas R. M.

; Araújo, Larissa Fortunato Foppa, Murilo Duncan, Bruce B. Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P. Brant, Luisa C. C.

Arquivos Brasileiros de Cardiologia

Journal Metrics
- Sobre o periódico
- SciELO Analytics

2022, N. ahead

Abstract: Pt En | Text: Pt En | PDF: Pt | PDF: En

https://doi.org/10.36660/abc.20210750

Premature mortality due to four main non-communicable diseases and suicide in Brazil and its states from 1990 to 2019: A Global Burden of Disease Study
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Cousin, Ewerton

; Schmidt, Maria Inês

; Stein, Caroline

; Aquino, Érika Carvalho de

; Gouvea, Ellen de Cassia Dutra Pozzetti

; Malta, Deborah Carvalho

; Naghavi, Mohsen

; Duncan, Bruce B.

Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical

Journal Metrics
- Sobre o periódico
- SciELO Analytics

2022, Volume 55 Suppl. 1 elocation e0328-2021

Abstract: En | Text: En | PDF: En

Abstract INTRODUCTION: The goal of reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) requires close monitoring. Our objective is to characterize the decline of premature NCD mortality in Brazil based on Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019 estimates. METHODS: We used GBD 2019 data to estimate death rates of the four main NCDs - cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases. We estimated the unconditional probability of death between ages 30 to 69, as recommended by the World Health Organization, as well as premature crude- and age-standardized death rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost for these conditions. We also estimated trends in suicide (self-harm) death rates. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2019, the age-standardized unconditional probability of premature death declined -1.4%/year (UI: -1.7%;-1.0%) . Age-standardized death rates declined -1.5%/year (UI: -1.9%; -1.2%), and crude death rates -0.6%/year (UI: (-1.0%; -0.2%). Level of development correlated strongly with the rate of decline, with greatest declines occurring in the Southeast, Center West and South regions. Age-standardized mortality from self-harm declined, most notably in the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: Premature mortality due to the main NCDs has declined from 1990 in Brazil, although at a diminishing rate over time. The unconditional probability of death and the age-standardized mortality rate produced similar estimates of decline for the four main NCDs, and mirror well decline in mortality from all NCDs. Declines, especially more recent ones, fall short of the international goals. Strategic public health actions are needed. The challenge to implement them will be great, considering the political and economic instability currently faced by Brazil.

https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0328-2021

Exposure to and Burden of Major Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors in Brazil and its States, 1990-2019: The Global Burden of Disease Study
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Stein, Caroline

; Schmidt, Maria Inês

; Cousin, Ewerton

; Malta, Deborah Carvalho

; Naghavi, Mohsen

; Oliveira, Patrícia Pereira Vasconcelos de

; Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz Pinho

; Duncan, Bruce B.

Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical

Journal Metrics
- Sobre o periódico
- SciELO Analytics

2022, Volume 55 Suppl. 1 elocation e0275-2021

Abstract: En | Text: En | PDF: En

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) have become the main cause of disease burden in Brazil. Our objective was to describe trends (1990 to 2019) in prevalence and attributable burden of five modifiable risk factors and related metabolic risk factors in Brazil and its states. METHODS: In Global Burden of Disease 2019 analyses, we described trends in prevalence of modifiable risk factors and their metabolic mediators as percentage change in Summary Exposure Value (SEV). We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to the risk factors. RESULTS: Age-adjusted exposures to alcohol [41.0%, Uncertainty Interval (UI): 24.2 - 63.4], red meat (61.2%, UI: 42.4-92.3), low physical activity (3.9%, UI: -5-17.5) and ambient particulate matter pollution (3.3%, UI: -48.9-128.0) have worsened. Those for smoking (-51.4%, UI: -54.7- - 47.8), diet low in fruits (-28.1%, UI: -39.1- -18.7) and vegetables (-19.6%, UI: -32.7 - -8.7), and household air pollution (-85.3%, UI: -92.9- -74.3) have improved. All mediating metabolic risk factors, except high blood pressure (0.7%, UI: -6.9-8.3), have worsened: BMI (110.2%, UI: 78.6-161.7), hyperglycemia (15.1%, UI: 9.3-21.2), kidney dysfunction (12.0%, UI: 8.4-17.2), and high LDL-c (11.8%, UI: 6.9-17.2). CONCLUSIONS: A variable pattern of progress and failure in controlling modifiable risk factors has been accompanied by major worsening in most metabolic risk factors. The mixed success in public health measures to control modifiable risk factors for NCDs, when gauged by the related trends in metabolic risk factors, alert to the need for stronger actions to control NCDs in the future.

https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0275-2021

Incidence of thyroid diseases: Results from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil)
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Benseñor, Isabela M.

; Sgarbi, José Augusto

; Janovsky, Carolina Castro Porto Silva

; Pittito, Bianca Almeida

; Diniz, Maria de Fátima Haueisen Sander

; Almeida, Maria da Conceição Chagas de

; Alvim, Sheila Maria

; Barreto, Sandhi M.

; Giatti, Luana

; Duncan, Bruce B.

; Schmidt, Maria Inês

; Fonseca, Maria de Jesus M.

; Griep, Rosane H.

; Molina, Maria del Carmen B.

; Mill, José Geraldo

; Santos, Itamar de Souza

; Goulart, Alessandra C.

; Lotufo, Paulo A.

Archives of Endocrinology and Metabolism

Journal Metrics
- Sobre o periódico
- SciELO Analytics

aug 2021, Volume 65 N. 4 Pages 468 - 478

Abstract: En | Text: En | PDF: En

ABSTRACT Objective: To evaluate incidence of subclinical and overt hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism. Subjects and methods: The Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) is a prospective cohort study of 15,105 civil servants, examined at baseline and over a 4-year follow-up. This analysis included 9,705 participants with normal thyroid function at baseline, follow-up information about thyroid function and with no report of using drugs that may interfere in the thyroid function. Thyroid function was defined by TSH/FT4 levels or routine use of thyroid hormones/anti-thyroid medications. Annual and cumulative (over 4-year) incidence rates were presented as percentages (95% Confidence Intervals). Results: The incidence of all overt and subclinical thyroid disease was 6.7% (1.73%/year): 0.19% for overt hyperthyroidism (0.048%/year), 0.54% for subclinical hyperthyroidism (0.14%/year), 1.98% for overt hypothyroidism (0.51%/year), and 3.99% for subclinical hypothyroidism (1.03%/year). The incidence of all thyroid diseases was higher in women, when compared to men, with a low women:men ratio (1.36). For Blacks the highest incidence was for overt hyperthyroidism, while for Whites, the highest incidence was for overt hypothyroidism. However, the highest incidence of overt hyperthyroidism was detected in Asian descendants. The presence of antithyroperoxidase antibodies at baseline was associated with higher incidence of overt thyroid diseases. Conclusion: These results showed a high incidence of hypothyroidism, which is compatible with a country with a more-than-adequate iodine intake. The low women:men ratio of the incidence of thyroid dysfunction highlights the importance of the diagnosis of thyroid diseases among men in Brazil.

https://doi.org/10.20945/2359-3997000000348 273 downloads

A pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil: a série de projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation e a evolução observada, maio a agosto de 2020
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Stein, Caroline

; Cousin, Ewerton

; Machado, Ísis Eloah

; Felisbino-Mendes, Mariana Santos

; Passos, Valéria Maria de Azeredo

; Sousa, Tatiane Moraes de

; Schmidt, Maria Inês

; Gallagher, John

; Naghavi, Mohsen

; Duncan, Bruce B.

Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde

Journal Metrics
- Sobre o periódico
- SciELO Analytics

2021, Volume 30 N. 1 elocation e2020680

Abstract: Pt En Es | Text: Pt En Es | PDF: Pt | PDF: En | PDF: Es

Resumo Objetivo Descrever as projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) para a COVID-19 no Brasil e seus estados, apresentar sua acurácia e discutir suas implicações. Métodos As previsões do IHME de maio a agosto de 2020, para o Brasil e alguns estados, foram comparadas ao número de mortes cumulativas observadas. Resultados A projeção prevê 182.809 mortes causadas pela pandemia até 1º de dezembro de 2020 no Brasil. O aumento no uso de máscara poderia poupar ~17 mil óbitos. O erro médio no número acumulado de óbitos em duas, quatro e seis semanas das projeções foi de 13%, 18% e 22% respectivamente. Conclusão Projeções de curto e médio prazo dispõem dados importantes e acurácia suficiente para informar os gestores de saúde, autoridades eleitas e sociedade geral. Após trajeto difícil até agosto, a pandemia, conforme as projeções, terá declínio sustentado, embora demorado, causando em média 400 óbitos/dia no início de dezembro.

Abstract Objective To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and the Brazilian states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. Methods The IHME projections from May to August 2020 for Brazil and selected states were compared with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. Results The pandemic was projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The mean error in the cumulative number of deaths at 2, 4 and 6 weeks after the projections were made was 13%, 18% and 22%, respectively. Conclusion Short and medium-term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate data to inform health managers, elected officials, and society at large. After following an arduous course up until August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily although slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.

Resumen Objetivo Describir las proyecciones del Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation para COVID-19 en Brasil y sus estados, presentar su precisión y discutir sus implicaciones. Métodos Las previsiones del IHME de mayo a agosto de 2020 para Brasil y algunos estados, se compararon con las muertes acumuladas observadas. Resultados La proyección prevé 182.809 muertes por la pandemia hasta el 1º de diciembre de 2020 en Brasil. Un aumento en el uso de mascarillas podría evitar ~17.000 muertes. El error medio en el número acumulado de muertes en 2, 4 y 6 semanas de las proyecciones fue de 13%, 18% y 22%. Conclusión Las proyecciones de corto y medio plazo proporcionan datos importantes y con suficiente precisión para informar a los administradores de salud, autoridades electas y a la sociedad. Después de un camino difícil hasta agosto, la pandemia, según las proyecciones, tendrá una disminución sostenida, pero lenta, y seguirá causando alrededor de 400 muertes/día a principios de diciembre.

https://doi.org/10.1590/s1679-49742021000100017 2366 downloads

A pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil: a série de projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation e a evolução observada, maio a agosto de 2020
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Stein, Caroline

; Cousin, Ewerton

; Machado, Ísis Eloah

; Felisbino-Mendes, Mariana Santos

; Passos, Valéria Maria de Azeredo

; Sousa, Tatiane Moraes de

; Schmidt, Maria Inês

; Gallagher, John

; Naghavi, Mohsen

; Duncan, Bruce B.

Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde

Journal Metrics
- Sobre o periódico
- SciELO Analytics

2021, Volume 30 N. 1 elocation e2020680

Abstract: Pt Es En | Text: Pt Es En | PDF: Pt | PDF: Es | PDF: En

https://doi.org/10.1590/s1679-49742021000100017

[SciELO Preprints] - The COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: the Series of Projection from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and the Ensuing Evolution, from May to August, 2020
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Stein, Caroline Cousin, Ewerton Machado, Ísis Eloah Passos, Valéria Maria de Azeredo Sousa, Tatiane Moraes de Schmidt, Maria Inês Gallagher, John Naghavi, Mohsen Duncan, Bruce B. Felisbino-Mendes, Mariana Santos

Journal Metrics
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- SciELO Analytics

Publication date: 2020-12-01

Abstract: En Pt

Objective: To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. Methods: We describe projections from May to August, 2020 for Brazil and selected states, comparing them with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic is projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The average error in projections of the cumulative number of deaths in 2, 4 and 6 weeks was 13%, 18% and 22%. Conclusion: IHME short, and medium term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate information to inform health planners, elected officials, and society. After presenting a very troublesome course to August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily and slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.

Objetivo: Descrever as projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) para a COVID-19 no Brasil e seus estados, apresentar sua acurácia e discutir suas implicações. Métodos: As previsões do IHME de maio a agosto de 2020, para o Brasil e alguns estados, foram comparadas ao número de mortes cumulativas observadas. Resultados: A projeção prevê 182.809 mortes causadas pela pandemia até 1o de dezembro de 2020 no Brasil. O aumento no uso de máscara poderia poupar ~17.000 óbitos. O erro médio no número acumulado de óbitos em duas, quatro e seis semanas das projeções foi de 13%, 18% e 22% respectivamente. Conclusão: Projeções de curto e médio prazo dispõem dados importantes e acurácia suficiente para informar os gestores de saúde, autoridades eleitas e sociedade geral. Após trajeto difícil até agosto, a pandemia, conforme as projeções, terá declínio sustentado, embora demorado, causando em média 400 óbitos/dia no início de dezembro.

https://doi.org/10.1590/s1679-49742021000100017

10.

[SciELO Preprints] - COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Projections and the Ensuing Evolution
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Stein, Caroline Cousin, Ewerton Malta, Deborah Carvalho Ribeiro , Antonio Luiz Pinho Machado , Ísis Eloah Vasconcelos , Ana Maria Nogales Melo, Ana Paula Souto França , Elisabeth Ishitani , Lenice Felisbino-Mendes , Mariana Santos Passos , Valéria Maria de Azeredo Sousa , Tatiane Moraes de Marinho , Fatima Schmidt , Maria Inês Gallagher , John Naghavi , Mohsen Duncan , Bruce B.

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Publication date: 2020-08-17

Abstract: En Es Pt

Objective: To describe IHME projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its states and discuss their accuracy and implications for different scenarios. Methods: We describe and estimate the accuracy of these predictions for Brazil by comparing them with the ensuing reported cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic is projected to cause 192,511 deaths by December 1, 2020. Continued relaxation of mandated physical isolation despite rising deaths could cause gt;63,000 additional deaths, while rapid increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~25,000. Several states will likely be obliged to reinstitute mandated restrictions.nbsp; Differences between IHME projections up to 6 weeks and recorded deaths ranged from -11% to 48% for Brazil. Conclusion: IHME short to medium term projections of deaths provide sufficiently accurate information to inform health planners, elected officials, and society. They suggest a prolonged pandemic course, with major mortality and probable necessity of renewed restrictions.

Objetivo: Describir las proyecciones del IHME para COVID-19 en Brasil y sus estados y discutir la precisión y las implicaciones en diferentes escenarios. Métodos: Describimos y estimamos la precisión de las previsiones para Brasil, comparándolos con las muertes acumuladas observadas. Resultados: La proyección predice 192.511 muertes por la pandemia al 1 de diciembre de 2020. La relajación continua del aislamiento físico obligatorio, a pesar del continuo aumento de muertes, puede causar gt;63.000 muertes adicionales; el rápido aumento en el uso de mascarillas puede reducir el número a ~25.000. Es posible que varios estados deban restablecer las restricciones. Las diferencias entre las proyecciones del IHME hasta las 6 semanas y las muertes registradas oscilaron entre -11% y 48% para Brasil. Conclusiones: Las proyecciones de corto a mediano plazo del IHME brindan información válida para informar a los administradores de salud, oficiales electos y la sociedad. Sugieren un curso prolongado, alta mortalidad y probablemente nuevas restricciones.

Objetivo: Descrever as projeções do IHME para a COVID-19 no Brasil e seus estados e discutir acurácia e implicações em diferentes cenários. Métodos: Descrevemos e estimamos a acurácia das previsões para o Brasil, comparando-as com as mortes cumulativas observadas. Resultados: A projeção prevê 192.511 mortes causadas pela pandemia até 1 de dezembro de 2020. O relaxamento continuado do isolamento físico obrigatório, apesar do aumento continuado dos óbitos, pode causar gt;63.000 mortes adicionais; o rápido aumento no uso de máscara pode reduzir o número para ~25.000. Vários estados poderão ter que reinstituir restrições. As diferenças entre as projeções do IHME até 6 semanas e as mortes registradas variaram de -11% a 48% para o Brasil. Conclusões: As projeções de curto a médio prazo do IHME fornecem informações válidas para informar os gestores de saúde, autoridades eleitas e a sociedade em geral. Elas sugerem curso prolongado, grande mortalidade e prováveis novas restrições.

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.1110

11.

Homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and metabolic syndrome at baseline of a multicentric Brazilian cohort: ELSA-Brasil study
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Diniz, Maria de Fátima Haueisen Sander

; Beleigoli, Alline Maria Rezende

; Schmidt, Maria Inês

; Duncan, Bruce B.

; Ribeiro, Antônio Luiz P.

; Vidigal, Pedro G.

; Benseñor, Isabela M.

; Lotufo, Paulo A.

; Santos, Itamar S.

; Griep, Rosane H.

; Barreto, Sandhi Maria

Cadernos de Saúde Pública

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2020, Volume 36 N. 8 elocation e00072120

Abstract: Pt En Es | Text: Pt En Es | PDF: Pt | PDF: En | PDF: Es

Resumo: O modelo de avaliação da homeostase da resistência à insulina (HOMA-IR) é um método para medir a resistência à insulina. Os pontos de corte do HOMA-IR para identificar a síndrome metabólica podem variar entre as populações e os níveis de índice de massa corporal (IMC). Nosso objetivo foi investigar os pontos de corte do HOMA-IR que melhor discriminam indivíduos com resistência à insulina e com síndrome metabólica para cada categoria de IMC em uma grande amostra de adultos sem diabetes na linha de base do Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto (ELSA-Brasil). Entre os 12.313 participantes com média de idade de 51,2 (DP 8,9) anos, a prevalência de síndrome metabólica foi de 34,6%, e 60,1% apresentavam sobrepeso ou obesidade. As prevalências de síndrome metabólica nas categorias de peso normal, sobrepeso e obesidade foram, respectivamente, 13%, 43,2% e 60,7%. O ponto de máxima sensibilidade e especificidade combinadas do HOMA-IR para discriminar a síndrome metabólica foi de 2,35 em toda a amostra, com valores crescentes nas categorias de IMC mais elevadas. Esta investigação contribui para o melhor entendimento dos valores de HOMA-IR associados à resistência à insulina e síndrome metabólica em uma grande amostra de adultos brasileiros, e que o uso de pontos de corte de acordo com a curva ROC pode ser a melhor estratégia. Também sugere que valores diferentes podem ser apropriados nas categorias de IMC.

Abstract: Homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) is a method to measure insulin resistance. HOMA-IR cut-offs for identifying metabolic syndrome might vary across populations and body mass index (BMI) levels. We aimed to investigate HOMA-insulin resistance cut-offs that best discriminate individuals with insulin resistance and with metabolic syndrome for each BMI category in a large sample of adults without diabetes in the baseline of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). Among the 12,313 participants with mean age of 51.2 (SD 8.9) years, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 34.6%, and 60.1% had overweight or obesity. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome among normal weight, overweight and obesity categories were, respectively, 13%, 43.2% and 60.7%. The point of maximum combined sensitivity and specificity of HOMA-IR to discriminate the metabolic syndrome was 2.35 in the whole sample, with increasing values at higher BMI categories. This investigation contributes to better understanding HOMA-IR values associated with insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome in a large Brazilian adult sample, and that use of cut-off points according to ROC curve may be the better strategy. It also suggests that different values might be appropriate across BMI categories.

Resumen: El modelo homeostático para evaluar la resistencia a la insulina (HOMA-IR) es un método para medir la resistencia a la insulina. Los cortes HOMA-IR para identificar el síndrome metabólico pueden variar entre las poblaciones y los niveles del índice de masa corporal (IMC). El objetivo fue investigar los cortes de HOMA-IR que mejor discriminaban individuos con resistencia a la insulina y con síndrome metabólico para cada categoría de IMC, en una extensa muestra de adultos sin diabetes en la base de referencia del Estudio Longitudinal de Salud del Adulto (ELSA-Brasil). Entre los 12.313 participantes con una media de edad de 51,2 años (DE 8,9), la prevalencia de síndrome metabólico fue 34,6%, y un 60,1% sufría sobrepeso u obesidad. La prevalencia de síndrome metabólico entre las categorías: peso normal, sobrepeso y obesidad fueron respectivamente, 13%, 43,2% y 60,7%. El punto de máxima sensibilidad combinada y especificidad de HOMA-IR para discriminar el síndrome metabólico fue 2,35 en toda la muestra, con valores crecientes en las categorías de IMC más altas. Esta investigación contribuye a entender mejor los valores HOMA-IR, asociados con resistencia a la insulina y síndrome metabólico en una gran muestra de adultos brasileños, además del planteamiento de que el uso de puntos de corte según la curva ROC es quizás la mejor estrategia a seguir. También sugiere que valores diferentes pueden ser apropiados a través de las categorías de IMC.

https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-311x00072120 1449 downloads

12.

Homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and metabolic syndrome at baseline of a multicentric Brazilian cohort: ELSA-Brasil study
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Diniz, Maria de Fátima Haueisen Sander

; Beleigoli, Alline Maria Rezende

; Schmidt, Maria Inês

; Duncan, Bruce B.

; Ribeiro, Antônio Luiz P.

; Vidigal, Pedro G.

; Benseñor, Isabela M.

; Lotufo, Paulo A.

; Santos, Itamar S.

; Griep, Rosane H.

; Barreto, Sandhi Maria

Cadernos de Saúde Pública

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2020, Volume 36 N. 8 elocation e00072120

Abstract: Pt Es En | Text: Pt Es En | PDF: Pt | PDF: Es | PDF: En

https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-311x00072120

13.

Reproducibilidad del strain longitudinal global del ventrículo izquierdo por ecocardiografía bidimensional speckle tracking: Estudio Longitudinal de Salud del Adulto (ELSA-Brasil)
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Cañon-Montañez, Wilson Santos, Angela B.S. do Amaral, Maria Vitória F. Nunes, Lisandra Almeida Duncan, Bruce B. Schmidt, Maria Inês Foppa, Murilo

Revista Colombiana de Cardiología

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dec 2017, Volume 24 N. 6 Pages 559 - 566

Abstract: Es En | Text: Es En | PDF: Es | PDF: En

Resumen Introducción: Se han propuesto técnicas ecocardiográficas avanzadas como el strain longitudinal global por ecocardiografía bidimensional speckle tracking para la detección de alteraciones precoces de la función sistólica del ventrículo izquierdo. La evaluación de la reproducibilidad del strain longitudinal global es fundamental para su aplicación clínica en diferentes escenarios. Objetivo: Estimar la reproducibilidad del strain longitudinal global del ventrículo izquierdo en individuos de un estudio de cohorte del Brasil. Métodos: La reproducibilidad del strain longitudinal global del ventrículo izquierdo fue evaluada mediante lectura y análisis de imágenes de ecocardiografía de una muestra aleatoria de 50 participantes de la línea de base del Estudio Longitudinal de Salud del Adulto (ELSA-Brasil). Resultados: Los participantes tenían una edad promedio de 49,7 ± 7,3 años, 54% eran mujeres y la media del strain longitudinal global fue -19,5% ± 1,9%. La reproducibilidad interobservador de la medida del strain longitudinal global mostró un coeficiente de variación de 7,4% y un coeficiente de correlación intraclase de 0,76 (IC 95%: 0,61, 0,86). El análisis del acuerdo interobservador de las medidas del strain longitudinal global mediante el método de Bland & Altman evidenció un promedio de diferencias de 0,1% ± 1,4% y unos límites de acuerdo superior de 2,9 e inferior de -2,7. Conclusiones: Hubo una reproducibilidad adecuada de las medidas del strain longitudinal global del ventrículo izquierdo en participantes del ELSA-Brasil y los valores fueron similares a los reportados en otros estudios epidemiológicos longitudinales. Los hallazgos refuerzan la utilidad del strain longitudinal global como un índice clínico de deformación miocárdica, capaz de detectar alteraciones subclínicas de la contractilidad miocárdica.

Abstract Introduction: Advanced echocardiography techniques, such as the global longitudinal strain using two-dimensional ultrasound speckle tracking, have been proposed for the detection of early changes in the left ventricular systolic function. The evaluation of the reproducibility of left ventricular global longitudinal strain is essential for its clinical application in different scenarios. Objective: To determine the reproducibility of left ventricular global longitudinal strain in individuals from a Brazil cohort study. Methods: The reproducibility of left ventricular global longitudinal strain was evaluated by the reading and analysis of echocardiograph images of a random sample of 50 participants of the baseline Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). Results: The mean age of the participants was 49.7 ± 7.3 years, of whom 54% were women, and the mean global longitudinal strain was -19.5% ± 1.9%. The inter-observer reproducibility of the mean global longitudinal strain, had a coefficient of variation of 7.4%, and an intra-class correlation of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.61 - 0.86). The analysis of the inter-observer agreement of the global longitudinal strain measurements using the Bland and Altman method showed a mean differences of 0.1% ± 1.4%, and upper and lower limits of agreement of 2.9 and -2.7, respectively. Conclusions: There was adequate reproducibility of the left ventricular global longitudinal strain measurements in participants of the ELSA-Brasil study, and the values were similar to those reported in other longitudinal epidemiological studies. The findings reinforce the use of the global longitudinal strain as a clinical marker of myocardial deformation, capable of detecting subclinical changes in myocardial contractility.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rccar.2017.08.024

14.

Gramado Declaration: The Impact of 20 Years of Cardiovascular Prevention
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Achutti, Aloyzio Stein, Ricardo Pellanda, Lúcia Duncan, Bruce B.

Arquivos Brasileiros de Cardiologia

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mar 2017, Volume 108 N. 3 Pages 193 - 194

Abstract: Pt En | Text: Pt En | PDF: Pt | PDF: En

https://doi.org/10.5935/abc.20170040 1329 downloads

15.

Circulating early biomarkers of atherogenesis in participants of the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) without diabetes or cardiovascular disease
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Almeida-Pititto, Bianca de Ribeiro-Filho, Fernando Flexa Barreto, Sandhi Duncan, Bruce B. Schmidt, Maria Inês Lotufo, Paulo A. Bensenor, Isabela M. Ferreira, Sandra R. G.

Archives of Endocrinology and Metabolism

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dec 2016, Volume 60 N. 6 Pages 573 - 581

Abstract: En | Text: En | PDF: En

ABSTRACT Objective Our aim was to describe the distribution of selected biomarkers according to age and sex, adjusted for HOMA-IR and adiposity, in a subset of middle-aged individuals of Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health-ELSA without diabetes mellitus or CVD. Subjects and methods This cross-sectional study was conducted in 998 participants of the ELSA-Brasil without diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease. In addition to the traditional risk factors, several biomarkers concentrations were compared according to sex, age groups (35-44; 45-54 yrs) and HOMA-IR tertiles. Linear regression was used to examine independent associations of sex and age with selected novel biomarkers, adjusted for body adiposity and HOMA-IR. Results Fifty-five percent were women. Men had higher mean values of body mass index, waist circumference, blood pressure, plasma glucose, HOMA-IR, worse lipid profile and higher E-selectin and lower leptin concentrations than women; while women had higher levels of HDL-cholesterol and leptin than men. Mean values of waist circumference, systolic BP, plasma glucose and apolipoprotein B (Apo B) increased with age in both sexes. Leptin and E-selectin concentrations increased across HOMA-IR tertiles. Independent associations of Apo B with age were found only in male sex, while of leptin with body mass index and HOMA-IR, and of E-selectin with HOMA-IR in both sexes. Conclusions In conclusion, our data indicate age, sex, adiposity and, consequently, insulin resistance, influence circulating levels of Apo B, leptin and E-selectin, suggesting that those aspects should be taken into consideration when assessing these parameters for research or clinical purposes in individuals at relatively low cardiometabolic risk.

https://doi.org/10.1590/2359-3997000000205 1305 downloads

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