ABSTRACT Background: This research addresses two questions: (1) how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability and how it influences dengue transmission in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (MRR), and (2) whether the epidemic in MRR municipalities has any connection and synchronicity. Methods: Wavelet analysis and cross-correlation were applied to characterize seasonality, multiyear cycles, and relative delays between the series. This study was developed into two distinct periods. Initially, we performed periodic dengue incidence and intercity epidemic synchronism analyses from 2001 to 2017. We then defined the period from 2001 to 2016 to analyze the periodicity of climatic variables and their coherence with dengue incidence. Results: Our results showed systematic cycles of 3-4 years with a recent shortening trend of 2-3 years. Climatic variability, such as positive anomalous temperatures and reduced rainfall due to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is partially linked to the changing epidemiology of the disease, as this condition provides suitable environments for the Aedes aegypti lifecycle. Conclusion: ENSO may have influenced the dengue temporal patterns in the MRR, transiently reducing its main way of multiyear variability (3-4 years) to 2-3 years. Furthermore, when the epidemic coincided with El Niño years, it spread regionally and was highly synchronized.

Abstract Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (A. aegypti) transmits arboviral diseases of high public health importance, including those caused by Zika virus (ZIKV), Dengue virus (DENV), Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Yellow fever virus (YFV). Barreiras is a city with 157,638 inhabitants in the West of the State of Bahia, Northeast of Brazil. The climate is dry, with well-determined and concentrated seasons of rains. The city is crossed by a Federal Highway and by the Rio Grande river. In this study, we aimed to understand the dynamics of mosquito vectors and arboviral diseases in Barreiras. We used correlation statistics to investigate a possible relationship among rains, mosquito abundance and transmission of diseases. In addition, as a preliminary population genetics estimate, we used geometric morphometrics to compare mosquitoes from areas limited by a highway and a river. We found that i) infestation occurs in rain-dependent cycles and that ii) both, the river and the highway segregate populations of A. aegypti in different areas of the studied city. Our results indicate that it is necessary to treat anthropic containers with mosquito breading capacity during both, the dry and rain seasons in urban areas similar to Barreiras.