Much of the soybean produced in Brazil is exported and, consequently, the domestic soybean price (R$) is greatly influenced by the price traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group) (US$). Therefore, to model the dependency structure between soybean yield and price, the exchange rate must be incorporated into the modeling. This study aims to model the dependency structure between these three variables using the Copula methodology, calculate the crop revenue insurance rates, and compare with the rates offered in the insurance market. The rates applied by the Brazilian insurance market are overpriced when compared to the methodology presented in this study with the incorporation of the dollar rate in the modeling, which could increase the problem of adverse selection exchange and hamper massification of agricultural insurance in the Brazilian territory.
A implementação de um programa de seguro rural é uma reivindicação antiga do setor agropecuário no país. Após a malsucedida experiência da Companhia Nacional de Seguro Agrícola o governo voltou a tomar medidas para incentivar o mercado, por intermédio da Lei nº 10.823/03, que subvenciona parte do prêmio pago pelo produtor. A natureza deste trabalho é essencialmente analítica, de tal forma que não foram estabelecidos modelos quantitativos. Historicamente, os resultados deficitários do Proagro e de diversas seguradoras demonstram que o atual modelo de seguro agrícola apresenta fortes sinais de esgotamento. O artigo mostra as principais iniciativas, tanto privadas como governamentais e sugere um conjunto de medidas visando o desenvolvimento do seguro rural no país.
The implementation of a crop insurance program is an old requirement of the agricultural sector. After the failure of the National Crop Insurance Company (CNSA), in the period of 1954 through 1966, the federal government started to stimulate the agricultural insurance market. Aiming increase the crop insurance operations the Government approved Law n. 10.823 which subsidize part of the premium paid by farmers. The nature of this work is essentially analytical, such that any quantitative model has been established. Over the years, government risk management tools, such as, Proagro and some private insurance companies have had unsatisfactory financial results suggesting that the current crop insurance model presents signals of decline. This article shows the main initiatives, state and private, and suggests a set of measures to develop the agricultural insurance in the country.