ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze spatial distribution of preterm births and their association with maternal, social, and health services indicators in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil, 2010-2019. Methods: Ecological study using data on preterm newborns from 39 municipalities in the metropolitan region of São Paulo. Univariate global Moran’s index (Im) was used to evaluate spatial association of prematurity, and univariate local Moran’s index by using the cluster map (LISA) to identify spatial patterns and clusters. Bivariate global Moran’s index was also used to analyze spatial autocorrelation with maternal, social, and health services indicators. Results: A total of 3,103,898 live births were registered in period 2010-2019, of which 331,174 (10.7%) were preterm. The global Moran’s index showed spatial independence (Im=0.05; p-value=0.233) of the proportion of preterm births between municipalities. However, in the local spatial analysis it was possible to identify a statistically significant spatial cluster between the municipalities of Biritiba Mirim, Guararema and Salesópolis, with high proportions of preterm births. In the bivariate analysis, a significant positive spatial association was identified with proportions of mothers under 20 years old (Im=0.17; p-value=0.024) and mothers with low schooling (Im=0.17; p-value=0.020), and a significant negative spatial association with HDI (Im=-0.14; p-value=0.039). Conclusions: The local spatial approach identified a spatial cluster located in the far east of the metropolitan region of São Paulo, where actions by health managers are needed to minimize occurrence of preterm births.

RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar a distribuição espacial dos nascimentos prematuros e sua associação com indicadores maternos, sociais e de serviços de saúde na região metropolitana de São Paulo, Brasil, 2010-2019. Métodos: Estudo ecológico utilizando dados sobre recém-nascidos pré-termo dos 39 municípios da região metropolitana de São Paulo. Utilizou-se o índice de Moran (Im) global univariado para avaliar a associação espacial da prematuridade, e o índice de Moran local univariado por meio do mapa de clusters (LISA) para a identificação de padrões e aglomerados espaciais. Também foi utilizado o índice de Moran global bivariado para analisar a autocorrelação espacial com os indicadores maternos, sociais e de serviços de saúde. Resultados: Foram registrados 3.103.898 nascidos vivos no período 2010-2019, dos quais 331.174 (10,7%) foram prematuros. O índice de Moran global mostrou independência espacial (Im=0,05; p-valor=0,233) da proporção dos nascimentos prematuros entre municípios. No entanto, na análise espacial local foi possível identificar aglomerado espacial estatisticamente significativo entre os municípios de Biritiba Mirim, Guararema e Salesópolis, com proporções altas de nascimentos pré-termo. Na análise bivariada, identificou-se associação espacial significativa positiva com proporções de mães menores de 20 anos (Im=0,17; p-valor=0,024) e mães com baixa escolaridade (Im=0,17; p-valor=0,020), e associação espacial significativa negativa com IDH (Im=-0,14; p-valor=0,039). Conclusão: A abordagem espacial local identificou agrupamento espacial situado no extremo leste da região metropolitana de São Paulo, onde ações dos gestores de saúde são necessárias para minimizar a ocorrência de partos prematuros.

RESUMO Objetivo: O baixo peso ao nascer (BPN) é um problema de saúde pública e está fortemente associado à mortalidade infantil. Este estudo teve como objetivo identificar a distribuição espacial da mortalidade infantil em recém-nascidos com BPN (750–2.500 g) a termo (≥37 semanas de gestação), por serem pequenos para a idade gestacional, analisando sua associação com determinantes relacionados à mãe, bem como identificar áreas prioritárias de mortalidade no Estado de São Paulo, 2010–2019. Métodos: A taxa de mortalidade infantil foi analisada na divisão da mortalidade neonatal e mortalidade pós-neonatal de recém-nascidos com BPN a termo. O método bayesiano empírico alisou as taxas, o índice de Moran univariado foi utilizado para medir o grau de associação espacial entre os municípios e o índice de Moran bivariado foi empregado para identificar a existência de associação espacial entre as taxas e os determinantes selecionados. Mapas temáticos de excesso de risco e Moran local foram elaborados para identificar aglomerados espaciais, adotando-se 5% como nível de significância. Resultados: O mapa de excesso de risco mostrou que mais de 30% dos municípios apresentaram taxas acima da taxa estadual. Aglomerados de alto risco foram identificados nas regiões sudoeste, sudeste e leste, principalmente entre os municípios mais desenvolvidos. Os determinantes mães adolescentes, mães acima de 34 anos, baixa escolaridade, índice de desenvolvimento humano, índice de vulnerabilidade social, produto interno bruto, médicos e leitos pediátricos apresentaram associação significativa com as taxas avaliadas. Conclusões: Foram identificadas áreas prioritárias e determinantes significativos associados à redução da mortalidade em recém-nascidos com BPN, sugerindo a necessidade de medidas de intervenção para atingir o Objetivo de Desenvolvimento Sustentável.

ABSTRACT Objective: Low birth weight (LBW) is a public health problem strongly associated with infant mortality. This study aimed to identify the spatial distribution of infant mortality in newborns with LBW (750–2,500 g) at term (≥37 weeks of gestation), due to their being small for gestational age, analyzing its association with mother-related determinants, as well as to identify priority areas of mortality in the State of São Paulo, 2010–2019. Methods: Infant mortality rate was analyzed in the division of neonatal mortality and postneonatal mortality of newborns with LBW at term. The empirical Bayesian method smoothed the rates, the univariate Moran index was used to measure the degree of spatial association between the municipalities, and the bivariate Moran index was employed to identify the existence of a spatial association between the rates and the selected determinants. Thematic maps of excess risk and local Moran were prepared to identify spatial clusters, adopting 5% as a significance level. Results: The excess risk map showed that more than 30% of the municipalities had rates above the state rate. High-risk clusters were identified in the southwest, southeast, and east regions, mainly among more developed municipalities. The determinants of adolescent mothers, mothers over 34 years of age, low education, human development index, social vulnerability index, gross domestic product, physicians, and pediatric beds showed a significant association with the rates evaluated. Conclusions: Priority areas and significant determinants associated with reduced mortality in newborns with LBW were identified, suggesting the need for intervention measures to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal.

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Exposure to air pollutants and illness by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) infection can cause serious pulmonary impairment. OBJECTIVE: To identify a possible association between exposure to air pollutants and hospitalizations due to SARS-Cov-2. DESIGN AND SETTING: Ecological time-series study carried out in Taubaté, Tremembé, and Pindamonhangaba in 2020 and 2021. METHODS: Study with Sars-Cov-2 hospitalizations with information on hospitalization date, sex and age of the subjects, duration of hospitalization, type of discharge, and costs of these hospitalizations. Statistical analysis was performed through a negative binomial regression, with data on pollutant concentrations, temperature, air relative humidity, and hospitalization date. Coefficients obtained by the analysis were transformed into relative risk for hospitalization, which estimated hospitalizations excess according to an increase in pollutant concentrations. RESULTS: There were 1,300 hospitalizations and 368 deaths, with a predominance of men (61.7%). These data represent an incidence rate of 250.4 per 100,000 inhabitants and 28.4% hospital lethality. Significant exposure (P value < 0.05) occurred seven days before hospital admission (lag 7) for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (relative risk, RR = 1.0124) and two days before hospital admission for PM2.5 (RR = 1.0216). A 10 μg/m3 in NO2 concentration would decrease by 320 hospitalizations and » US $ 240,000 in costs; a 5 μg/m3 in PM2.5 concentration would decrease by 278 hospitalizations and » US $ 190,000 in costs. CONCLUSION: An association between exposure to air pollutants and hospital admission due to Sars-Cov-2 was observed with excess hospitalization and costs for the Brazilian public health system.

ABSTRACT Objective: Low birth weight (LBW) is a public health problem strongly associated with infant mortality. This study aimed to identify the spatial distribution of infant mortality in newborns with LBW (750–2,500 g) at term (≥37 weeks of gestation), due to their being small for gestational age, analyzing its association with mother-related determinants, as well as to identify priority areas of mortality in the State of São Paulo, 2010–2019. Methods: Infant mortality rate was analyzed in the division of neonatal mortality and postneonatal mortality of newborns with LBW at term. The empirical Bayesian method smoothed the rates, the univariate Moran index was used to measure the degree of spatial association between the municipalities, and the bivariate Moran index was employed to identify the existence of a spatial association between the rates and the selected determinants. Thematic maps of excess risk and local Moran were prepared to identify spatial clusters, adopting 5% as a significance level. Results: The excess risk map showed that more than 30% of the municipalities had rates above the state rate. High-risk clusters were identified in the southwest, southeast, and east regions, mainly among more developed municipalities. The determinants of adolescent mothers, mothers over 34 years of age, low education, human development index, social vulnerability index, gross domestic product, physicians, and pediatric beds showed a significant association with the rates evaluated. Conclusions: Priority areas and significant determinants associated with reduced mortality in newborns with LBW were identified, suggesting the need for intervention measures to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal.

RESUMO Objetivo: O baixo peso ao nascer (BPN) é um problema de saúde pública e está fortemente associado à mortalidade infantil. Este estudo teve como objetivo identificar a distribuição espacial da mortalidade infantil em recém-nascidos com BPN (750–2.500 g) a termo (≥37 semanas de gestação), por serem pequenos para a idade gestacional, analisando sua associação com determinantes relacionados à mãe, bem como identificar áreas prioritárias de mortalidade no Estado de São Paulo, 2010–2019. Métodos: A taxa de mortalidade infantil foi analisada na divisão da mortalidade neonatal e mortalidade pós-neonatal de recém-nascidos com BPN a termo. O método bayesiano empírico alisou as taxas, o índice de Moran univariado foi utilizado para medir o grau de associação espacial entre os municípios e o índice de Moran bivariado foi empregado para identificar a existência de associação espacial entre as taxas e os determinantes selecionados. Mapas temáticos de excesso de risco e Moran local foram elaborados para identificar aglomerados espaciais, adotando-se 5% como nível de significância. Resultados: O mapa de excesso de risco mostrou que mais de 30% dos municípios apresentaram taxas acima da taxa estadual. Aglomerados de alto risco foram identificados nas regiões sudoeste, sudeste e leste, principalmente entre os municípios mais desenvolvidos. Os determinantes mães adolescentes, mães acima de 34 anos, baixa escolaridade, índice de desenvolvimento humano, índice de vulnerabilidade social, produto interno bruto, médicos e leitos pediátricos apresentaram associação significativa com as taxas avaliadas. Conclusões: Foram identificadas áreas prioritárias e determinantes significativos associados à redução da mortalidade em recém-nascidos com BPN, sugerindo a necessidade de medidas de intervenção para atingir o Objetivo de Desenvolvimento Sustentável.

RESUMO Objetivo: Descrever aspectos clínicos e epidemiológicos de crianças e adolescentes infectados pelo SARS-CoV-2 no município de Taubaté (SP) de março a novembro de 2020. Métodos: Estudo transversal com dados secundários obtidos no Setor de Vigilância Epidemiológica de casos confirmados em residentes do município e consulta de prontuários de pacientes que foram atendidos em hospitais de Taubaté, com idade entre 0 e 19 anos. Realizaram-se os testes de qui-quadrado, comparação de proporções e t de Student, sendo considerados nível de significância alfa <5%. Resultados: Notificaram-se 677 casos no período estudado, correspondendo a 10,1% do total de casos notificados no município. O teste rápido de anticorpos foi o teste mais utilizado, seguido de RT-PCR e sorologia. Sintomas foram descritos em 57,7% dos casos, sendo febre e tosse os mais frequentes. Diarreia apresentou associação com faixa etária < 4 anos, e febre, tosse, cefaleia, odinofagia, ageusia, anosmia, mialgia e dispneia tiveram associação com faixa etária de 10 a 19 anos. No período estudado, não ocorreu nenhum óbito por COVID-19 na faixa etária de 0 a 19 anos de residentes do município. Conclusões: O estudo conseguiu identificar a proporção de acometimento da COVID-19 em crianças e adolescentes no município, e a doença teve comportamento leve e boa evolução. Os principais sintomas foram febre e tosse, destacando-se diarreia nas crianças mais jovens e cefaleia, odinofagia, anosmia, ageusia e mialgia nos adolescentes.

Abstract Objective: To describe clinical and epidemiological aspects of children and adolescents infected with the SARS-CoV-2 in the Municipality of Taubaté, SP, from March to November 2020. Methods: Cross-sectional study with secondary data obtained from the Epidemiological Surveillance System about confirmed cases in city residents and from medical records of patients who were treated in hospitals in Taubaté, aged between 0 and 19 years. Chi-square and Student’s t tests were used for comparisons. Results: 677 cases in the studied age range were reported during the study period, corresponding to 10.1% of cases reported in the municipality. The rapid antibody test was the most used to confirm infection, followed by RT-PCR and serology. Symptoms were described in 57.7% of the cases, mainly fever and cough. Diarrhea was associated with age below 4 years, while fever, cough, headache, odynophagia, ageusia, anosmia, myalgia, and dyspnea were associated with an age ranging from 10 to 19 years. In the study period, there were no deaths from COVID-19 of residents of the municipality in the age group from 0 to 19 years. Conclusions: The study was able to identify the proportion of involvement of COVID-19 in children and adolescents in the city, and the disease had a mild evolution. The main symptoms were fever and cough, but mainly diarrhea in younger children, and headache, odynophagia, anosmia, ageusia, and myalgia in adolescents.

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Exposure to air pollutants and illness by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) infection can cause serious pulmonary impairment. OBJECTIVE: To identify a possible association between exposure to air pollutants and hospitalizations due to SARS-Cov-2. DESIGN AND SETTING: Ecological time-series study carried out in Taubaté, Tremembé, and Pindamonhangaba in 2020 and 2021. METHODS: Study with Sars-Cov-2 hospitalizations with information on hospitalization date, sex and age of the subjects, duration of hospitalization, type of discharge, and costs of these hospitalizations. Statistical analysis was performed through a negative binomial regression, with data on pollutant concentrations, temperature, air relative humidity, and hospitalization date. Coefficients obtained by the analysis were transformed into relative risk for hospitalization, which estimated hospitalizations excess according to an increase in pollutant concentrations. RESULTS: There were 1,300 hospitalizations and 368 deaths, with a predominance of men (61.7%). These data represent an incidence rate of 250.4 per 100,000 inhabitants and 28.4% hospital lethality. Significant exposure (P value < 0.05) occurred seven days before hospital admission (lag 7) for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (relative risk, RR = 1.0124) and two days before hospital admission for PM2.5 (RR = 1.0216). A 10 μg/m3 in NO2 concentration would decrease by 320 hospitalizations and » US $ 240,000 in costs; a 5 μg/m3 in PM2.5 concentration would decrease by 278 hospitalizations and » US $ 190,000 in costs. CONCLUSION: An association between exposure to air pollutants and hospital admission due to Sars-Cov-2 was observed with excess hospitalization and costs for the Brazilian public health system.

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Exposure to air pollutants is associated with hospital admissions due to cardiovascular diseases and premature deaths. OBJECTIVE: To estimate years of life lost (YLL) due to premature deaths and their financial costs. DESIGN AND SETTING: Ecological time-series study carried out in São José dos Campos, Brazil, in 2016. METHODS: Data on deaths among residents of this city in 2016 were assessed to estimate the financial cost of premature deaths associated with air pollution. The diagnoses studied were ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure and cerebrovascular disease, according to YLL. The fractions attributable to deaths associated with air pollutant exposure and to each potential year of life lost were calculated using negative binomial regression with lags of 0-7 days between exposure and outcome. Nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter (PM10) and ozone concentrations were included in the model and adjusted for temperature, humidity and seasonality. RESULTS: Exposure to particulate matter was significant at lag 3 days. There were 2177 hospitalizations over the study period, with 201 deaths (9.2%). Premature deaths led to 2035.69 years of life lost. A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 concentrations was correlated with 8.0% of the hospitalizations, which corresponded to 152.67 YLL (81.67 for males and 71.00 for females). The cost generated was approximately US$ 9.1 million in 2016. CONCLUSION: In this first study conducted in a medium-sized Brazilian city, using the YLL methodology, we identified an excess expense attributable to air pollution.

RESUMO Objetivo: Comparar padrões espaciais da sífilis congênita (SC) com os de variáveis socioeconômicas e médicas no Vale do Paraíba paulista nos anos de 2012 a 2016. Métodos: Estudo ecológico e exploratório, utilizando ferramentas da análise espacial, com informações sobre casos de SC obtidas do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) e criadas taxas de casos de SC por 1.000 nascidos vivos (NV), de números de Equipes de Saúde da Família e de pediatras atendendo na rede por 100 mil habitantes e de valores do índice de vulnerabilidade social. Foram construídos mapas temáticos com essas taxas, para comparação entre elas, por meio do programa TerraView 4.2.2, e estimaram-se índices de Moran global (IM) para essas variáveis. Para detectar áreas com prioridade de atenção para a incidência de SC, foi construído Box Map. Estipulou-se a correlação de Spearman para os valores das variáveis, os quais foram comparados pelo teste de Kruskal-Wallis. Adotou-se erro alfa=5%. Resultados: Ocorreram 144.613 nascimentos no período e 870 casos de SC (6,04/1.000 NV); o valor médio das taxas por município foi de 4,0±4,1 (0,0-17,6/1.000 NV). Maiores taxas de SC ocorreram em municípios do Alto Vale do Paraíba, ao contrário das maiores proporções de pediatras, que se encontravam no extremo leste da região. Os mapas temáticos das variáveis apresentaram aspecto de mosaico, que caracteriza distribuição aleatória das variáveis, e os IM não foram significativos. Não houve correlação significativa entre as variáveis, e o Box Map identificou oito municípios que apresentavam altas taxas de SC. Conclusões: Não houve semelhanças entre os padrões espaciais das taxas de SC e demais variáveis, mas identificaram-se oito municípios que merecem atenção dos gestores municipais.

ABSTRACT Objective: To compare spatial patterns of congenital syphilis (CS) with those of socioeconomic and medical variables in Paraíba Valley, São Paulo, between 2012 and 2016. Methods: Ecological and exploratory study developed using spatial analysis tools, with information on CS cases obtained from official data reports. Rates were found for CS cases per 1,000 live births, number of family health teams and pediatricians available in the health system per 100,000 inhabitants, and social vulnerability index values. Thematic maps were constructed with these variables and compared using TerraView 4.2.2 software. Estimated global Moran (IM) indexes were calculated. In order to detect areas with priority attention regarding the incidence of CS, BoxMaps were developed. The Spearman correlation was estimated for the variable values and compared using the Kruskal-Wallis test. P <0.05 was significant. Results: 144,613 births and 870 CS cases (6.04/1000 live births) occurred during the study period. The average value of CS rates per municipality was 4.0±4.1, (0.0-17.6/1000 live births). Higher CS rates occurred in municipalities of the Upper Vale do Paraíba, contrary to the proportions of pediatricians who were in the far east of the region. The thematic maps of the variables presented a mosaic aspect, which characterized the random distribution of the variables. The IM were not significant. No significant correlation was found between the variables. The BoxMap identified eight municipalities with high CS rates. Conclusions: Even though it was not possible to identify a spatial pattern of CS rates, it was shown that eight municipalities deserve the attention of city managers.

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Exposure to air pollutants has several effects on human health, including during pregnancy. OBJECTIVE: To identify whether exposure to benzene and toluene among pregnant women contributes to preterm delivery. DESIGN AND SETTING: Longitudinal study using data on newborns from mothers living in São José dos Campos (SP) in 2016, who had been exposed to benzene and toluene. METHODS: A logistic regression model with three hierarchical levels was constructed using maternal variables relating to newborns, and using benzene and toluene concentrations in quartiles. Occurrences of cesarean births, twins or malformations were excluded. Maternal exposure windows of 5, 10, 15, 30, 60 and 90 days prior to delivery were considered. RESULTS: Out of the 9,562 live births, 3,671 newborns were included and 343 newborns were born at less than 37 weeks of gestation (9.3%). The average birth weight was 3,167.2 g. Exposure to benzene and toluene was significantly associated (P = 0.04) with preterm delivery in the five-day window. There was no association in any of the other exposure windows. CONCLUSIONS: It was possible to identify that maternal exposure to benzene and toluene has an acute effect on preterm delivery.

RESUMO Objetivo: Identificar associação entre exposição ao material particulado fino e internações por doenças respiratórias em crianças de até dez anos de idade, no município de Cuiabá, MT, estratificando a análise por sexo e calculando excesso de custos. Métodos: Estudo ecológico de séries temporais, sendo a variável dependente o número diário de internações por doenças respiratórias, segundo a 10a Revisão da Classificação Internacional de Doenças (CID): J04.0, J12.0 a J18.9, J20.0 a J21.9 e J45.0 a J45.0. As variáveis independentes foram a concentração do particulado fino, estimada pelo modelo matemático, além de temperatura e umidade relativa do ar, controladas pelas tendências de curta e longa duração. Foram calculados riscos relativos, risco atribuível proporcional (RAP) e excessos de internações e seus respectivos custos pela fração atribuível populacional (FAP). Resultados: Foram internadas 1.165 crianças (640 meninos e 525 meninas). A concentração média estimada do particulado fino foi 15,1±2,9 mcg/m3 para particulado fino (PM2,5). Para meninos, não houve associação significativa. Para meninas, observou-se risco relativo (RR) de até 1,04 para o número diário de internações por doenças respiratórias em associação à exposição ao PM2,5 nos lags 1, 2 e 6. O aumento de 5 mcg/m3 nessas concentrações associou-se ao aumento do risco em 18% e o RAP atribuído à exposição foi de 20% das internações das meninas, com excesso de 95 internações e de gastos da ordem de R$ 105 mil. Conclusões: Houve associação da exposição ao particulado fino e número de internações por doenças respiratórias de meninas, sugerindo a necessidade de estratificação por sexos em estudos posteriores.

ABSTRACT Objective: Identify the association between exposure to fine particulate matter and hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases in children up to ten years of age in the city of Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, stratifying the analysis by sex and calculating excess costs. Methods: Ecological study of time series. The dependent variable was daily hospitalizations according to the 10th Revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD10): J04.0, J12.0 to J18.9, J20.0 to J21.9 and J45.0 to J45.0. The independent variables were the concentration of fine particulate, estimated by a mathematical model, temperature and relative air humidity, controlled by short and long-term trends. Generalized additive model of Poisson regression was used. Relative risks, proportional attributable risk (PAR) and excess hospitalizations and their respective costs by the population attributable fraction (PAF) were calculated. Results: 1,165 children were hospitalized, 640 males and 525 females. The mean concentration, estimated by the mathematical model, was 15.1±2.9 mcg/m3 for PM2.5. For boys, there was no significant association; for girls a relative risk of up to 1.04 of daily hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases was observed for exposure to PM 2.5 in lags 1, 2 and 6. Increase of 5 µg/m3 in these concentrations increased the percentage of the risk in 18%; with an excess 95 hospital admissions and with excess expenses in the order of US$ 35 thousand. Conclusions: Significant effect in daily hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases related to exposure to fine particulate matter was noted for girls, suggesting the need for stratification by sex in further studies.

Resumo Internações por doenças respiratórias geram custos financeiros para o Sistema de Saúde além de custos sociais. O objetivo deste estudo foi elaborar e validar um modelo linguístico “fuzzy” para previsão do número de internações por doenças respiratórias. Foi construído um modelo “fuzzy” para predição de internações por pneumonias, bronquite, bronquiolite e asma segundo exposição ao material particulado fino (PM2,5) em residentes de Volta Redonda, RJ, em 2012. O modelo contém duas entradas PM2,5 e temperatura, com três funções de pertinência para cada entrada, e uma saída com três funções de pertinência para internações, que foram obtidas do DATASUS. Foram 752 internações no período, a concentração média do PM2,5 foi 17,1 µg/m3 (dp = 4,4). O modelo mostrou uma boa acurácia com PM2,5, o resultado foi entre 90% e 76,5% para os lags 1, 2 e 3, com sensibilidade de até 95%. Este estudo fornece subsídios para a criação de programa executável, que não exige um grande investimento, juntamente com o uso de um instrumento portátil pode permitir uma estimativa do número de internações e prestar apoio aos gestores municipais de saúde. Além disso, o modelo “fuzzy” é muito simples e implica em baixas despesas computacionais, tornando possível uma implementação.

Abstract Hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases generate financial costs for the Health System in addition to social costs. Objective of this study was to develop and validate a fuzzy linguistic model for prediction of hospitalization due to respiratory diseases. We constructed a fuzzy model for prediction of hospitalizations due to pneumonia, bronchitis, bronchiolitis and asthma second exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in residents of Volta Redonda, RJ, in 2012. The model contains two inputs, PM2.5 and temperature, with three membership functions for each input, and an output with three membership functions for admissions, which were obtained from DATASUS. There were 752 hospitalizations in the period, the average concentration of PM2.5 was 17.1 µg/m3 (SD = 4.4). The model showed a good accuracy with PM2.5, the result was between 90% and 76.5% for lags 1, 2 and 3, a sensitivity of up to 95%. This study provides support for creating executable software with a low investment, along with the use of a portable instrument could allow number of hospital admission due to respiratory diseases and provide support to local health managers. Furthermore, the fuzzy model is very simple and involves low computational costs, an implementation making possible.

Abstract: Background: Leprosy is a chronic, infectious disease that affects the skin and the peripheral nervous system and can lead to permanent disability and/or deformity. Objectives: To identify the distribution and to quantify the spatial dependence of the detection rates of new cases of Hansen’s disease in the State of São Paulo, correlating with socioeconomic variables. Methods: Ecological and exploratory study with data on the detection rates of new cases of Hansen’s disease among residents of São Paulo State municipalities between 2009-2012. The average rate per 10,0000 inhabitants was estimated. Information on the proportion of the population with low-income and the values of the Gini index were obtained. Thematic maps were constructed with the average rates and with those obtained by the Bayesian estimator; Moran and Kernel maps were also constructed. Spatial analysis by TerraView program. An alpha of 5% was adopted. Results: In total, 7163 new cases of Hansen’s disease were recorded throughout the state. The average rate per 10,000 inhabitants, was 0.71 (SD = 1.06), ranging from zero to 12.87, with higher rates in the west of the State, in the metropolitan area of the capital and the Paraiba Valley. Municipalities with high priority for intervention were located in the west and northwest of the State. There was no correlation between rates with Gini index and low income. Study limitations: Possible inconsistency of Hansen’s disease notification database regarding information quantity, quality and processing. Conclusions: This study identified the distribution and quantified the spatial dependence of the detection rates of new cases of Hansen’s disease in the State of São Paulo, corroborating previous studies and serving as a subsidy to health managers.

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Exposure to some air pollutants is associated with cardiovascular diseases. The objective of this study was to quantify the effect of exposure to fine particulate matter in hospitalizations due to ischemic heart disease and the costs to the healthcare system. DESIGN AND SETTING: Time-series ecological study conducted in Taubaté, Brazil. METHODS: Data on hospitalizations due to ischemic heart diseases (ICD I-20 to I-24) in the municipality of Taubaté (SP), Brazil, among adults of both sexes aged 40 years and over, from August 2011 to July 2012, were obtained from DATASUS. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations were estimated from a mathematical model. Poisson regression was used in statistical analyses to estimate the relative risks of exposure to PM2.5 for both sexes and after stratification according to sex. The excess of hospitalizations and consequent excess expenditure for the healthcare system were calculated. RESULTS: There were 1040 admissions, among which 382 had ischemic heart diseases (257 males). Themean PM2.5 concentration was 13.2 µg/m3 (SD = 5.6). Significant effects from exposure were noted 4and 5 days after exposure (lag 4 and lag 5) for both sexes and for male sex; for female sex, the effect was 2 days after exposure (lag 2). There were 59 excess hospitalizations for an increase in PM2.5 concentration of 5 µg/m3 and excess expenditure of US$ 150,000 for the National Health System. CONCLUSIONS: An excess of hospital admissions due to ischemic heart disease, with excess expenditure, was identified consequent to PM2.5 exposure.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Identificar padrões espaciais na distribuição das taxas de internação de crianças por pneumonia no estado de São Paulo, no período de 2009 a 2013. Métodos : Estudo ecológico exploratório com dados obtidos do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde (DATASUS) de internações por pneumonia em crianças relativas aos municípios do estado de São Paulo de 2009 a 2013, dados de escolaridade materna e renda familiar; e foram criadas taxas por mil crianças e inseridas numa base digital de municípios obtida do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Foram construídos mapas temáticos, de Kernel e de Moran para as taxas de internação e calculados os índices de Moran. Foi utilizado o programa TerraView para a análise espacial. Resultados : Foram internadas 43.809 crianças no período. A taxa média por município foi de 11,51 (DP = 8,62). O índice de Moran foi de 0,21 (p = 0,01). Há aglomerados nas regiões norte, noroeste, centro-oeste e sudoeste; o mapa de Kernel mostra densidade maior de taxas no noroeste e centro-oeste do estado; e o mapa de Moran identificou 39 municípios que merecem atenção por parte dos gestores municipais e regionais. Conclusões : O geoprocessamento permitiu identificar regiões com maiores taxas de internação por pneumonia e também municípios que merecem prioridade de intervenção.

ABSTRACT: Objective: To identify spatial patterns in the distribution of hospitalization rates of children with pneumonia in the state of São Paulo, Brazil from 2009 to 2013. Methods: This was an exploratory ecological study with data obtained from DATASUS of hospitalizations of children with pneumonia in the municipalities in São Paulo from 2009 to 2013/ Data on maternal education and family income were obtained and rates per thousand children were calculated and inserted in a database of municipalities obtained from IBGE. Thematic, kernel and Moran maps were constructed for the hospitalization rates and the Moran indices were calculated. The TerraView program was used for spatial analysis. Results: A total of 43,809 children were hospitalized in the study period, with a minimum of zero and a maximum of 69,072. The mean rate per municipality was 11.51 ± 8.62 (SD). The Moran index was 0.21 (p = 0.01). The thematic map showed clusters in the northern, northwestern, midwestern and southwestern regions of the state; the kernel map showed a higher density of rates in the northwestern and midwestern areas, and the Moran map identified 39 municipalities that deserve the attention of municipal and regional managers. Conclusions: Geoprocessing identifies regions with higher hospitalization rates for pneumonia and also municipalities that deserve a high intervention priority.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Identificar padrões espaciais na distribuição das taxas de internação de crianças por pneumonia no estado de São Paulo, no período de 2009 a 2013. Métodos : Estudo ecológico exploratório com dados obtidos do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde (DATASUS) de internações por pneumonia em crianças relativas aos municípios do estado de São Paulo de 2009 a 2013, dados de escolaridade materna e renda familiar; e foram criadas taxas por mil crianças e inseridas numa base digital de municípios obtida do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Foram construídos mapas temáticos, de Kernel e de Moran para as taxas de internação e calculados os índices de Moran. Foi utilizado o programa TerraView para a análise espacial. Resultados : Foram internadas 43.809 crianças no período. A taxa média por município foi de 11,51 (DP = 8,62). O índice de Moran foi de 0,21 (p = 0,01). Há aglomerados nas regiões norte, noroeste, centro-oeste e sudoeste; o mapa de Kernel mostra densidade maior de taxas no noroeste e centro-oeste do estado; e o mapa de Moran identificou 39 municípios que merecem atenção por parte dos gestores municipais e regionais. Conclusões : O geoprocessamento permitiu identificar regiões com maiores taxas de internação por pneumonia e também municípios que merecem prioridade de intervenção.

ABSTRACT: Objective: To identify spatial patterns in the distribution of hospitalization rates of children with pneumonia in the state of São Paulo, Brazil from 2009 to 2013. Methods: This was an exploratory ecological study with data obtained from DATASUS of hospitalizations of children with pneumonia in the municipalities in São Paulo from 2009 to 2013/ Data on maternal education and family income were obtained and rates per thousand children were calculated and inserted in a database of municipalities obtained from IBGE. Thematic, kernel and Moran maps were constructed for the hospitalization rates and the Moran indices were calculated. The TerraView program was used for spatial analysis. Results: A total of 43,809 children were hospitalized in the study period, with a minimum of zero and a maximum of 69,072. The mean rate per municipality was 11.51 ± 8.62 (SD). The Moran index was 0.21 (p = 0.01). The thematic map showed clusters in the northern, northwestern, midwestern and southwestern regions of the state; the kernel map showed a higher density of rates in the northwestern and midwestern areas, and the Moran map identified 39 municipalities that deserve the attention of municipal and regional managers. Conclusions: Geoprocessing identifies regions with higher hospitalization rates for pneumonia and also municipalities that deserve a high intervention priority.