The mfecane is thought to be a massive upheaval and devastation of Nguni tribal chiefdoms in the second decade of the 19th century in what is now KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape of South Africa. Other historians have challenged this extreme interpretation suggesting that the use of the term mfecane be discontinued. We show that pervasive cycles of drought and cold periods in southern Africa are significantly amplified and extended by volcanic eruptions and that, in particular, the eruption of Tambora in 1815 triggered a prolonged and extreme climatic event which bears all of the characteristics ascribed to the mfecane. These findings are supported by a coupled ocean-atmosphere numerical model and by tree-ring rainfall and sea surface temperature analyses, suggesting that the term mfecane is an appropriate description of a singular climatic event.

Como parte das investigações do experimento TRMM/LBA na Amazônia, medidas de chuva foram obtidas continuamente sobre uma área de pastagem. Neste trabalho foram analisados dados de precipitação durante o período compreendido entre 10 de janeiro a 28 de fevereiro de 1999 (período chuvoso). Os totais mensais de precipitação para o período estudado foram de 322,3 e 468,6 mm para janeiro e fevereiro, respectivamente. As análises da distribuição de frequência para os eventos inferiores a 1 mm/h e superiores a 1, 3 , 5, 10, 15 e 20 mm.h-1, mostraram diferentes distribuição temporal. Os eventos inferiores a 1 mm.h-1 apresentaram uma distribuição temporal mais regular, porém representando apenas cerca de 3% do volume total de precipitação (27 mm). Os eventos com precipitação superiores a 1, 3, 5 mm.h-1 apresentaram um padrão similar entre si, sendo que os casos mais frequentes ocorreram durante a madrugada e final da tarde. Esses eventos representaram cerca de 97, 91 e 86% do total da precipitação, respectivamente. Finalmente, os eventos acima de 10, 15 e 20 mm.h-1 totalizaram, respectivamente, 73, 68 e 62% do total da precipitação, e as maiores frequências relativas concentraram-se entre 2 às 4 HL e 15 às 17 HL. A precipitação observada pode ser classificada em 2 sistemas distintos de produção de chuva: convecção isolada local e sistemas convectivos de mesoescala, os quais provocaram máximos de precipitação às 16 e 4 HL, respectivamente.

As part of the investigations of the experiment TRMM/LBA in Amazônia, measurements of the rain were obtained in a pasture site. In this work precipitation distribution were analyzed during the period from January 10 to February 28, 1999 (wet season). The monthly totals of precipitation for the period were 322.3 and 468.6 mm for January and February, respectively. The analyses of the frequency distribution for the events lower than 1 mm.h-1 and higher than 1, 3, 5, 10, 15 and 20 mm.h-1 showed different time distribution. The events lower than 1 mm.h-1 presented a more regular temporary distribution, even representing only 3% of the total volume of precipitation (27 mm). The events with precipitation above 1, 3, 5 mm.h-1 presented a similar pattern among them, and the most frequent cases ocurred during late afternoon. Those events represented about 97, 91 and 86% of the total of the precipitation, respectively. Finally, the events above 10, 15 and 20 mm.h-1 represented 73, 68 and 62% of the total of the precipitation respectively, and the largest relative frequencies concentrated among 2 up to 4 HL and 15 up to 17 HL. The rainfall observed can be classified in 2 distint system: local convection and mesoscale convective system, which provoke peaks at 16 LT and 4 LT, respectively.