BACKGROUND Vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi appears to be interrupted in Chile; however, data show increasing incidence of Chagas' disease, raising concerns that there may be a reemerging problem. OBJECTIVE To estimate the actual risk in a changing world it is necessary to consider the historical vector distribution and correlate this distribution with the presence of cases and climate change. METHODS Potential distribution models of Triatoma infestans and Chagas disease were performed using Maxent, a machine-learning method. FINDINGS Climate change appears to play a major role in the reemergence of Chagas' disease and T. infestans in Chile. The distribution of both T. infestans and Chagas' disease correlated with maximum temperature, and the precipitation during the driest month. The overlap of Chagas' disease and T. infestans distribution areas was high. The distribution of T. infestans, under two global change scenarios, showed a minimal reduction tendency in suitable areas. MAIN CONCLUSION The impact of temperature and precipitation on the distribution of T. infestans, as shown by the models, indicates the need for aggressive control efforts; the current control measures, including T. infestans control campaigns, should be maintained with the same intensity as they have at present, avoiding sylvatic foci, intrusions, and recolonisation of human dwellings.

Chagas disease remains highly prevalent in Chile, especially between the regions of Arica and Parinacota, and Coquimbo. Since 1999 it is considered that in Chile the vector transmission was interrupted. Under this premise, the epidemiological dynamics should be changing. We analyzed the evolution of the prevalence of Chagas’ disease analyzing 64,995 xenodiagnosis performed in the laboratory of Parasitology of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Chile between 1949 and 2014. The evolution of the mortalities and incidences from the databases of the Ministry of Health in the periods in which it was analyzed. The rates of domiciliary infestation and the number of vector insects sent to the Public Health Institute and its trypano-triatomine indices were also analyzed. The prevalence of Chagas’ disease in inhabitants of risk areas remained stable in this period as well as mortality. The incidence rate shows a progressive increase with a tendency towards stabilization. A significant decrease in sampling effort was found, declining by two orders of magnitude, especially since 2000. The progressive increase in morbidity had no clear relation to the interruption of the vector chain nor to the greater diagnostic effort occurred in 2009, since it was evident from before. While home infestation declines, reports of intrusion of solitary individuals and wild foci of T. infestans have increased. Trypano-triatomine indices were maintained with high values in all vector species. This study shows a worrying situation, for while on the one hand the interruption of the vector transmission and improvement in the research systems is emphasized, the concern for this disease seems to be decreasing with less diagnostic efforts and lower education at the higher level, and by the other hand the numbers show that the problem if it is not increasing, at least maintains its careless historical magnitude.

Resumen Introducción: La enfermedad de Chagas sigue siendo altamente prevalente en Chile, especialmente entre las regiones de Arica y Parinacota y de Coquimbo. Desde 1999 se considera que en Chile se encuentra interrumpida la transmisión vectorial. Bajo esta premisa, la dinámica epidemiológica se debiera estar modificando. Objetivo: Analizar la evolución temporal de la enfermedad de Chagas en Chile Material y Métodos: Analizamos la evolución de la prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas a través del análisis de resultados de 64.995 xenodiagnós-ticos realizados en el laboratorio de Parasitología de la Facultad de Medicina de la Universidad de Chile, entre 1949 y 2014. Se estudió la evolución de las mortalidades e incidencias disponibles en las bases de datos del Ministerio de Salud en los períodos en que fue posible. Se analizaron las tasas de infestación domiciliaria y el número de insectos vectores enviados al Instituto de Salud Pública y sus índices tripano-tratominos. Resultados: La prevalencia de la enfermedad de Chagas en habitantes de zonas de riesgo se mantuvo estable en este período, al igual que la mortalidad. La tasa de incidencia muestra un incremento progresivo con tendencia a la estabilización. Se encontró un significativo decrecimiento del esfuerzo de muestreo, decayendo dos órdenes de magnitud, especialmente desde 2000. El aumento progresivo de la morbilidad no tiene clara relación con el corte de la cadena vectorial ni con el mayor esfuerzo diagnóstico ocurrido en 2009, ya que era evidente desde antes. Mientras que la infestación domiciliaria disminuye, han aumentado los reportes de intromisión de individuos solitarios y los focos silvestres de T. infestans. Los índices tripano triatominos se mantienen con valores altos en todas las especies vectores. Discusión: Este estudio muestra una situación preocupante, ya que mientras por una parte se destaca el corte de la transmisión vectorial y mejora en los sistemas de pesquisa, la preocupación por esta enfermedad parece ir decreciendo con menores esfuerzos diagnósticos y menor enseñanza a nivel superior, y por otra parte los números muestran que el problema si es que no está aumentando, al menos mantiene su descuidada magnitud histórica.