ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between the inflammatory potential of the diet measured by the energy-adjusted diet inflammatory index (E-DII) and inflammatory markers in adolescents. METHODS This cross-sectional study was conducted among 518 adolescents aged 18 and 19 years from São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil in 2016. A semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) was used to assess dietary intake from which E-DII scores were calculated to determine the inflammatory potential of the diet. The associations between E-DII and inflammatory markers (hs-CRP, IL-6, IL-4, TNF-α, and IFNγ) were analyzed using multivariable linear regression. The variables included in the adjusted model were identified using the directed acyclic graph. RESULTS The diet of these adolescents was mostly pro-inflammatory; mean E-DII score was 1.71 and ranged from -2.44 to 5.58. Higher E-DII scores were positively associated with higher levels of IFNγ in the adjusted analysis (Adjusted Coef.: 1.19; 95%CI: 0.36–12.04). We observed no associations between E-DII and other inflammatory markers (hs-CRP, IL-6, IL-4, TNF-α). Study results indicate that E-DII is useful in evaluating the inflammatory potential of the diet of Brazilian adolescents. CONCLUSIONS Cross-sectionally E-DII scores were positively associated with IFNγ concentrations. Future research should examine the association between changes in E-DII scores and levels of inflammatory markers longitudinally.

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between the inflammatory potential of the diet measured by the energy-adjusted diet inflammatory index (E-DII) and inflammatory markers in adolescents. METHODS This cross-sectional study was conducted among 518 adolescents aged 18 and 19 years from São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil in 2016. A semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) was used to assess dietary intake from which E-DII scores were calculated to determine the inflammatory potential of the diet. The associations between E-DII and inflammatory markers (hs-CRP, IL-6, IL-4, TNF-α, and IFNγ) were analyzed using multivariable linear regression. The variables included in the adjusted model were identified using the directed acyclic graph. RESULTS The diet of these adolescents was mostly pro-inflammatory; mean E-DII score was 1.71 and ranged from -2.44 to 5.58. Higher E-DII scores were positively associated with higher levels of IFNγ in the adjusted analysis (Adjusted Coef.: 1.19; 95%CI: 0.36–12.04). We observed no associations between E-DII and other inflammatory markers (hs-CRP, IL-6, IL-4, TNF-α). Study results indicate that E-DII is useful in evaluating the inflammatory potential of the diet of Brazilian adolescents. CONCLUSIONS Cross-sectionally E-DII scores were positively associated with IFNγ concentrations. Future research should examine the association between changes in E-DII scores and levels of inflammatory markers longitudinally. energyadjusted energy EDII E DII (E-DII crosssectional cross sectional 51 1 Luís Maranhão 2016 FFQ (FFQ hsCRP, hsCRP hs CRP, CRP (hs-CRP IL6, IL6 IL 6, 6 IL-6 IL4, IL4 4, 4 IL-4 TNFα, TNFα TNF α, α TNF-α regression graph proinflammatory pro pro-inflammatory 171 71 1.7 2.44 244 2 44 -2.4 558 5 58 5.58 Adjusted Coef. Coef 1.19 119 95%CI 95CI CI 95 0.36–12.04. 0361204 0.36–12.04 . 0 36 12 04 0.36–12.04) TNFα. TNF-α) Crosssectionally Cross sectionally concentrations longitudinally 201 IL- 17 7 1. 2.4 24 -2. 55 5.5 1.1 11 9 036120 0.36–12.0 3 20 2. -2 5. 03612 0.36–12. - 0361 0.36–12 036 0.36–1 03 0.36– 0.36 0.3 0.

Resumen Antecedentes: las enfermedades cardiovasculares son la principal causa de morbimortalidad mundial. La obesidad, sarcopenia, actividad física insuficiente y las conductas sedentarias impactan de manera sinérgica en el riesgo cardiovascular. Objetivo: evaluar el riesgo cardiovascular en relación con la actividad física, las conductas sedentarias y la composición corporal. Materiales y métodos: estudio observacional transversal de 95 personas adultas de ambos sexos. Se determinó el riesgo cardiovascular mediante el score de Framingham y el score de Framingham corregido por área total de placa aterosclerótica; la composición corporal, por antropometría, bioimpedancia y dinamometría como indicador indirecto; y la actividad física y las conductas sedentarias, por cuestionario validado. Se condujeron análisis descriptivos, de correlación y asociación con un 95 % de confianza. Resultados: el 95 % de las mujeres y el 98 % de los varones presentaron riesgo cardiovascular elevado; el 51,5 %, obesidad; el 95,5%, obesidad central; y el 47,3 %, fuerza muscular disminuida. Se observaron asociaciones positivas significativas entre riesgo cardiovascular y circunferencia de cintura (rho=0,26; p=0,024). No hubo asociación significativa entre la fuerza muscular y el riesgo cardiovascular (rho=-0,21; p=0,065). La conducta sedentaria tuvo un efecto promotor del riesgo cardiovascular (OR=3,9; p=0,033). Conclusiones: la obesidad central y permanecer más de 6/h día en posición sedente son factores asociados al riesgo cardiovascular.

Abstract Background: Cardiovascular diseases are the principal cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Obesity, sarco-penia, insufficient physical activity, and sedentary behaviors synergistically impact cardiovascular risk. Objective: Evaluate cardiovascular risk in relation to physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and body composition. Materials and Methods: Cross-sectional observational study in 95 total males and females. Cardiovascular risk was determined using the Framingham score, which corrects for total area of atherosclerotic plaque. Risk was also determined using body composition, anthropometry, bioimpedance and dynamometry as indirect indicators, physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and a validated questionnaire. Descriptive, correlation and association analyses were conducted with 95% confidence. Results: 95% of women and 98% of men presented with an elevated cardiovascular risk; 51.5% with obesity, 95.5% central obesity, and 47.3% with diminished muscular strength. Significant positive associations were observed between cardiovascular risk and waist circumference (rho=0.26; p=0.024). There was no significant association between muscle strength and cardiovascular risk (rho=-0.21, p=0.065). Sedentary behavior increased cardiovascular risk (OR=3.9; p=0.033). Conclusions: Central obesity and staying more than six hours per day in a sitting position are factors associated with cardiovascular risk.

Abstract Warfarin is an oral anticoagulant prescribed to prevent and treat thromboembolic disorders. It has a narrow therapeutic window and must have its effect controlled. Prothrombin test, expressed in INR value, is used for dose management. Time in therapeutic range (TTR) is an important outcome of quality control of anticoagulation therapy and is influenced by several factors. The aim of this study was to identify genetic, demographic, and clinical factors that can potentially influence TTR. In total,422 patients using warfarin were investigated. Glibenclamide co-medication and presence of CYP2C9*2 and/or *3 alleles were associated with higher TTR, while amiodarone, acetaminophen and verapamil co-medication were associated with lower TTR. Our data suggest that TTR is influenced by co-medication and genetic factors. Thus, individuals in use of glibenclamide may need a more careful monitoring and genetic testing (CYP2C9*2 and/or *3 alleles) may improve the anticoagulation management. In addition, in order to reach and maintain the INR in the target for a longer period, it is better to discuss dose adjustment in office instead of by telephone assessment. Other studies are needed to confirm these results and to find more variables that could contribute to this important parameter.

ABSTRACT Several biochemical studies in addition to the evaluation of total Testosterone (TT), bioavailable (bioT) and free (FT) have been performed to the effects that could be of greater use for the diagnosis of concomitant pathologies in the PCOS, among others. The anti-Müllerian hormone whose concentration when exceeds 3.0 ng/ml, there is evidence that 79% of these patients can be correctly identified as PCOS. The Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA), a marker of singular importance in patients with prostate cancer, with ultra-sensitive techniques, has been detected in more than 50% of women. In a group of patients with PCOS, circulating levels of PSA are significantly higher than in women without PCOS. The Kiss-1 isolated from the placenta and demonstrated in other tissues, has increased levels that correlate with LH, TT, TL and insulin resistance (IR) in adolescents with PCOS respect to adolescents without PCOS, suggesting that Kiss-1 could be involved in the development of the PCOS in these patients. In some patients with PCOS, they are associated with relevant pathologies, of which the increase in BMI, higher degree of dyslipidemia, central adiposity, IR and Metabolic Syndrome (MeS) have been reported. Those that show a classic phenotype (hyperandrogenism, alteration of the menstrual cycle and polycystic ovaries) these characteristics are of greater frequency and severity than in the other phenotypes, particularly those without hyperandrogenism. Other determinations such as TNFα, interleukins, glucose tolerance test, ApoB, small particles of LDL and Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor-1 have been reported that could be useful to have greater sensitivity in the definition of concomitant pathology in the PCOS. Currently, other markers such as Fetuin-A, Chemerin, Nesfatin-1 Neopterin and Endocannabinoids have been evaluated. The preliminary results suggest to be an important contribution to define MeS and IR in patient with PCOS and to try to determine its prevalence in the different phenotypes of this pathology.

RESUMEN Diversos estudios bioquímicos adicionales a la evaluación de Testosterona total (TT), biodisponible (Tbio) y libre (TL) han sido realizados a los efectos que pudieran resultar de mayor utilidad para el diagnóstico de patologías concomitantes en el SOP, entre otros. En la hormona anti Mülleriana, cuando la concentración supera a los 3,0 ng/ml existen evidencias de que el 79% de las mismas pueden ser identificadas correctamente como SOP. El Antígeno Prostático Específico (PSA), marcador de singular importancia en pacientes con cáncer de Próstata, con técnicas ultrasensibles ha podido ser detectado en más del 50% en mujeres. En un grupo de pacientes con SOP, los niveles circulantes de PSA fueron significativamente mayores que en las mujeres sin SOP. El Kiss-1 aislado de la placenta y demostrado en otros tejidos, presenta niveles aumentados que correlacionan con la LH, TT, TL y resistencia a la insulina (RI) en adolescentes con SOP versus adolescentes sin SOP, sugiriendo que el Kiss-1 podría estar involucrado en el desarrollo del SOP en estas pacientes. Algunas pacientes con SOP están asociadas a patologías relevantes, de las cuales han sido comunicadas el aumento del BMI, mayor grado de dislipemia, adiposidad central, RI y Síndrome Metabólico (SMe). En las pacientes con un fenotipo clásico (hiperandrogenismo, alteración del ciclo menstrual y ovarios poliquísticos), estas patologías son de mayor frecuencia y severidad que en los otros fenotipos, particularmente aquellos sin hiperandrogenismo. Otras determinaciones como TNFα, interleuquinas, test de tolerancia a la glucosa, ApoB, partículas pequeñas de LDL e Inhibidor del Activador del Plasminógeno-1 han sido comunicados que podrían ser de utilidad para tener mayor sensibilidad en la definición de patología concomitantes en el SOP. Actualmente se ha comenzado a evaluar otros marcadores como el Fetuin-A; Quemerina, Nesfatina-1, Neopterina y Endocannabinoides, cuyos resultados preliminares parecerían ser un aporte importante para evaluar SMe y RI en paciente con SOP y tratar de definir su prevalencia en los distintos fenotipos de esta patología.

RESUMEN Esta revisión fue realizada con el fin de evaluar nuestros resultados de laboratorio así como aquellos de la literatura que constituyen, a nuestro entender, aportes significativos en el síndrome de ovarios poliquísticos (SOP). Nuestro especial énfasis será presentar las limitaciones de las metodologías empleadas por nuestro grupo, comparativamente a las reportadas por otros investigadores. La determinación de andrógenos, en particular de Testosterona (TT), es quizá la de mayor complejidad dado que los resultados con los diferentes inmunoensayos empleados en nuestro medio producen resultados muy variables por los diferentes métodos y aún entre laboratorios que usan la misma metodología. La técnica de referencia es la cromatografía líquida en tándem con espectrometría de masa (LC-MSMS), de difícil aplicación en laboratorios de análisis clínicos debido a su alto costo y la imposibilidad de resolver numerosas muestras. En estudios previos demostramos que de los métodos habitualmente usados para evaluar la TT circulante, solo en 2 inmunoensayos los resultados obtenidos fueron satisfactoriamente validados indirectamente según el criterio del Consenso de los Centros para el Control y Prevención de Enfermedades (CDC, USA) contra LC-MSMS, los cuales fueron comparables a dicha metodología con niveles superiores a 0,5 ng/ml. El SOP puede presentar factores de riesgo aumentados para la enfermedad cardiovascular y la diabetes II. Estos factores no están debidamente categorizados en función de los distintos fenotipos del SOP. Se evaluarán los principales analitos empleados con este objetivo y los nuevos que aporten elementos de mayor especificidad en este sentido.

ABSTRACT The lack of hydrological data in Brazil is the main limitation for structuring hydrological models, which are able to assist water resources management. Therefore, studies are needed to evaluate the performance of models without on-site calibration. Within this context, the aim of this study was to calibrate the SWAT hydrological model for the Camanducaia River Basin and to evaluate the performance of this calibration in a contiguous drainage basin, one of the Jaguarí River. For the calibration and validation steps, the SWAT-CUP program was utilized. Uncertainty analysis and calculation of efficiency indexes were carried out through the SUFI-2 algorithm. The SWAT adjustment in the Camanducaia River Basin obtained adequate results, with a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient higher than 0.80 in the monthly time step and of 0.64 for the daily time step. With the parametrical transfer of this model to the Jaguarí River Basin, simulations were classified as very good in the monthly time step and acceptable for the daily time step. Based on these results, it can be concluded that the parametric transfer is a promising technique to model ungauged catchments, and can contribute towards water resources management in the river basins of the Mantiqueira Range region, as well as in other regions with shortage of hydrological monitoring.

RESUMO Objetivo: Avaliar o uso de álcool/tabaco/drogas ilícitas e a função sexual em adolescentes com artrite idiopática juvenil (AIJ) e controles saudáveis. Métodos: Selecionaram-se 174 adolescentes com doenças reumatológicas pediátricas. Fez-se um estudo transversal com 54 pacientes com AIJ e 35 controles. Foram feitas avaliações de dados demográficos/antropométricos e marcadores da puberdade; a escala de triagem CRAFFT (carro/relaxar/sozinho/esquecer/amigos/problemas) foi aplicada por um médico para determinar o alto risco de uso abusivo/dependência de substâncias. Um questionário avaliou a função sexual, a ocorrência de bullying e o uso de álcool/tabaco/drogas ilícitas. Também foram avaliados dados clínicos/laboratoriais e de tratamento da AIJ. Resultados: A média da idade atual foi semelhante entre pacientes com AIJ e controles [15 (10 a 19) vs. 15 (12 a 18) anos, p = 0,506]. As frequências de uso de álcool/tabaco/drogas ilícitas foram elevadas e semelhantes entre pacientes com AIJ e controles (43% vs. 46%, p = 0,829). No entanto, a idade em que começou a usar álcool foi significantemente maior naqueles com AIJ [15 (11 a 18) vs. 14 (7 a 18 anos), p = 0,032], em particular na doença de início poliarticular (p = 0,040). Encontrou-se um alto risco de uso abusivo/dependência de substâncias (pontuação no CRAFFT ≥ 2) em ambos os grupos (13% vs. 15%, p = 1,000), do mesmo modo que o bullying (p = 0,088). Uma análise mais aprofundada dos pacientes com AIJ em relação ao uso de álcool/tabaco/drogas ilícitas mostrou que a média da idade atual [17 (14 a 19) vs. 13 (10 a 19) anos, p < 0,001] e os anos de escolaridade [11 (6 a 13) vs. 7 (3 a 12) anos, p < 0,001] foram significativamente maiores naqueles que usaram substâncias. A atividade sexual foi significantemente maior no primeiro grupo (48% vs. 7%, p < 0,001). Foi evidenciada correlação positiva entre a pontuação na escala CRAFFT e a idade atual dos pacientes com AIJ (p = 0,032, r = + 0,296). Conclusão: Observou-se um alto risco de uso abusivo/dependência de substâncias em pacientes com AIJ e controles. Os usuários de substâncias que têm AIJ são mais propensos a ter relações sexuais. Portanto, sugere-se a triagem de rotina em todas as consultas de adolescentes com AIJ.

ABSTRACT Objective: To evaluate alcohol/tobacco/illicit drug use and sexual function in adolescent juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and healthy controls. Methods: 174 adolescents with pediatric rheumatic diseases were selected. A cross-sectional study with 54 JIA patients and 35 controls included demographic/anthropometric data and puberty markers assessments, physician-conducted CRAFFT (car/relax/alone/forget/friends/trouble) screen tool for substance abuse/dependence high risk and a questionnaire that evaluated sexual function, bullying and alcohol/tobacco/illicit drug use. Clinical/laboratorial data and treatment were also assessed in JIA. Results: The median current age was similar between JIA patients and controls [15(10–19) vs. 15(12–18) years, p = 0.506]. Frequencies of alcohol/tobacco/illicit drug use were high and similar in both JIA and controls (43% vs. 46%, p = 0.829). However, age at alcohol onset was significantly higher in those with JIA [15(11–18) vs. 14(7–18) years, p = 0.032], particularly in polyarticular onset (p = 0.040). High risk for substance abuse/dependence (CRAFFT score ≥ 2) was found in both groups (13% vs. 15%, p = 1.000), likewise bullying (p = 0.088). Further analysis of JIA patients regarding alcohol/tobacco/illicit drug use showed that the median current age [17(14–19) vs. 13(10–19)years, p < 0.001] and education years [11(6–13) vs. 7(3–12)years, p < 0.001] were significant higher in those that used substances. Sexual activity was significantly higher in the former group (48% vs. 7%, p < 0.001). A positive correlation was evidenced between CRAFFT score and current age in JIA patients (p = 0.032, r = +0.296). Conclusion: A high risk for substance abuse/dependence was observed in both JIA and controls. JIA substance users were more likely to have sexual intercourse. Therefore, routine screening is suggested in all visits of JIA adolescents.

RESUMO A toxocaríase é uma zoonose parasitária causada principalmente pelo Toxocara canis ou peloT. cati. É adquirida pela ingestão de ovos embrionados do parasita. A artralgia e/ou artriteforam relatadas em até 17% dos casos, geralmente com duração aguda (menos de seis sema-nas). No entanto, que se tem conhecimento, a poliartrite crônica como manifestação isoladada infecção por Toxocara ainda não foi descrita na literatura. Um dos 5.809 pacientes acom-panhados em nosso serviço (0,017%) exibiu poliartrite crônica como manifestação únicada toxocaríase e foi descrito neste estudo. Uma menina de três anos foi encaminhada aonosso serviço com poliartrite crônica dolorosa grave por um período superior a 10 semanase rigidez matinal diária de 30 minutos. Foi relatada história de exposição a contato comcão nas áreas de lazer do bairro. Seus exames revelaram níveis elevados de eosinófilos nosangue periférico (29%), o aspirado de medula óssea revelou eosinofilia acentuada (32%)e o ensaio imunoenzimático ligado a enzima (ELISA) para Toxocara foi positivo (1:1.280). Acriança foi tratada com paracetamol (40 mg/kg/dia) e tiabendazol (25 mg/kg/dia) durante10 dias e houve regressão de todas as manifestações. Depois de oito meses de seguimento,a pequena paciente estava em remissão clínica e laboratorial. Em conclusão, descreve-seum caso de poliartrite crônica como manifestação isolada da toxocaríase, que mimetizouuma artrite idiopática juvenil e leucemia. É importante ressaltar que essa zoonose deve serconsiderada em pacientes com artrite e eosinofilia.

ABSTRACT Human toxocariasis is a parasitic zoonosis mainly caused by Toxocara canis or Toxocara catiand is acquired by ingestion of the parasite’s embryonated eggs. Arthralgia and/or arthri-tis were reported in up to 17% of the cases, generally with acute duration (less than 6weeks). However, to our knowledge, chronic polyarthritis, as the isolated presentation ofToxocara infection, was not reported. One of the 5809 patients that was followed up at ourservice (0.017%) had chronic polyarthritis as the single manifestation of toxocariasis and wasdescribed herein. A 3-year-old girl was referred to our service with severe painful chronicpolyarthritis for a period longer than 10 weeks and morning stiffness of 30 min. Dog contactexposure history in the recreational areas of neighborhood was reported. Her exams showedhigh levels of eosinophils in peripheral blood (29%), bone marrow aspirate revealed markedeosinophilia (32%) and Toxocara enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (Elisa) was positive(1:1280). She was treated with paracetamol (40 mg/kg/day) and thiabendazole (25 mg/kg/day)for 10 days, and all manifestations reduced. After eight months of follow-up, she was onclinical and laboratorial remission. In conclusion, we described a case of chronic polyarthri-tis, as isolated manifestation of toxocariasis, mimicking juvenile idiopathic arthritis andleukemia. Importantly, this zoonosis should be considered in patients with arthritis andeosinophilia.

Neste trabalho se estimaram os valores prováveis de precipitação pluvial para períodos quinzenais e suas respectivas distribuições espaciais, em Guiné-Bissau. Utilizou-se a distribuição log-normal a dois parâmetros para estimar os valores prováveis de precipitação associados ao nível de probabilidade de 75%, entre os meses de junho a outubro. A variabilidade espacial foi estimada pela modelagem dos semivariogramas experimentais e expressa com o emprego do interpolador espacial krigagem. Em média pode-se esperar, para períodos quinzenais em 3 de cada 4 anos pelo menos 100mm de chuvas, excetuando-se a 1ª quinzena de junho e a 2ª quinzena de outubro, cujos valores estimados estão abaixo de 50mm. Essas duas quinzenas correspondem, respectivamente ao início e ao fim do período de chuvas sinalizando, portanto, a necessidade de uso de irrigação suplementar para os cultivos agrícolas, visto que, em junho ocorre a semeadura e outubro antecede a colheita para culturas de ciclo longo. Quanto à variabilidade espacial, ela é elevada, com evidente decréscimo dos índices pluviométricos do eixo sul-sudoeste, exceto no mês de setembro, quando há homogeneidade espacial nas duas quinzenas.

The aim of this study was to estimate the probable values of rainfall in the first and second halves of the months and its spatial distribution in Guinea-Bissau. Distribution functions Log-normal 2 parameters were used to estimate the probable values of rainfall adopting the probability level of 75%. The spatial interpolation (kriging) was applied by semi-variogram modeling demonstrating that the probable rainfall estimates have high spatial variability, except in the month of September, when the behavior is homogeneous for both first and second halves. The lowest probable values of rainfalls under 50 mm occur in June and October throughout the country, supporting the use of supplemental irrigation to avoid compromising the periods of sowing (June) and minimize damage at harvest (October, November) for long cycle crops.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program on cognition, quality of life, and neuropsychiatry symptoms in patients with mild Alzheimer's disease. METHOD: The present study was a single-blind, controlled study that was conducted at a university-based day-hospital memory facility. The study included 25 Alzheimer's patients and their caregivers and involved a 12-week stimulation and psychoeducational program. The comparison group consisted of 16 Alzheimer's patients in waiting lists for future intervention. INTERVENTION: Group sessions were provided by a multiprofessional team and included memory training, computer-assisted cognitive stimulation, expressive activities (painting, verbal expression, writing), physiotherapy, and physical training. Treatment was administered twice a week during 6.5-h gatherings. MEASUREMENTS: The assessment battery comprised the following tests: Mini-Mental State Examination, Short Cognitive Test, Quality of Life in Alzheimer's disease, Neuropsychiatric Inventory, and Geriatric Depression Scale. Test scores were evaluated at baseline and the end of the study by raters who were blinded to the group assignments. RESULTS: Measurements of global cognitive function and performance on attention tasks indicated that patients in the experimental group remained stable, whereas controls displayed mild but significant worsening. The intervention was associated with reduced depression symptoms for patients and caregivers and decreased neuropsychiatric symptoms in Alzheimer's subjects. The treatment was also beneficial for the patients' quality of life. CONCLUSION: This multimodal rehabilitation program was associated with cognitive stability and significant improvements in the quality of life for Alzheimer's patients. We also observed a significant decrease in depressive symptoms and caregiver burden. These results support the notion that structured nonpharmacological interventions can yield adjunct and clinically relevant benefits in dementia treatment.

A espacialização de variáveis climáticas, notadamente a precipitação pluvial, necessita de estudos constantes, visando ao aperfeiçoamento de interpoladores e desenvolvimento de mapas sem tendência. Objetivou-se, neste contexto, avaliar o desempenho dos interpoladores krigagem (KG), a partir do melhor modelo de semivariograma, cokrigagem (CA), introduzindo a altitude como variável secundária, modelagem estatística (ME), na qual a precipitação média pode ser estimada a partir de coordenadas geográficas, e inverso do quadrado da distância (IQD), para espacialização da precipitação média mensal, precipitação média do período seco e precipitação média anual, em Minas Gerais; para isto se utilizaram informações de 232 postos pluviométricos para modelagem e de 70 para validação, com base no erro médio absoluto, além de um modelo digital de elevação com resolução de 270 m. Quanto à avaliação dos métodos de interpolação, constatou-se bom desempenho das metodologias abordadas, com erro absoluto médio variando de 12,84 a 19,96%, com destaque para a cokrigagem, que obteve menor erro em 50% das situações analisadas.

The mapping of weather elements, especially rainfall, needs constant studies to improve the performance of interpolators, and to obtain unbiased maps. This work aimed to evaluate the performance of some spatial interpolators for mean monthly rainfall, mean rainfall during the dry season and mean annual rainfall in the Minas Gerais State. For that, the ordinary kriging was evaluated and compared, after the semi-variogram modeling, co-kriging (introducing the altitude above sea level as a secondary variable), statistical modeling in which the mean precipitation can be estimated from geographical coordinates, and inverse square distance. In this study, data sets were evaluated from 232 pluviometric stations, in the Minas Gerais area, to apply each one of the interpolators mentioned and 70 stations to evaluate the performance that was conducted on the basis of absolute mean error. In addition, a digital elevation model, with a resolution of 270 m, was applied. The interpolators have shown good performance, with mean errors varying from 12.84 to 19.96%, the co-kriging method presenting a smaller absolute mean error in 50% of the situations evaluated.

O mapeamento da precipitação mínima provável associada a um período, local e freqüência de ocorrência, consiste em importante ferramenta para subsídios de práticas agrícolas. O objetivo neste trabalho foi mapear a precipitação provável mínima mensal e quinzenal para o Sul do Estado de Minas Gerais, por meio de técnicas geoestatísticas. O nível de probabilidade considerado foi de 75% e o período analisado foi a estação chuvosa (outubro a março). Os valores de precipitação provável foram estimados pela distribuição de probabilidade Log-Normal, após teste de sua adequação, por Kolmogorov-Smirnov, a partir de séries históricas de dados totais diários de precipitação referentes a 69 estações pluviométricas da região e arredores. Os modelos de semivariograma exponencial e esférico ajustados pela máxima verossimilhança (MV) e por mínimos quadrados ponderados (MQP) foram modelados para a escolha do melhor modelo que representasse o semivariograma experimental. Com base no grau de dependência espacial e pela validação cruzada, o modelo exponencial ajustado por MQP apresentou melhor desempenho. Os mapas de precipitação provável mostraram considerável variabilidade durante a estação chuvosa, com os maiores valores estimados para as regiões das Serras da Mantiqueira e Canastra.

The probable minimum precipitation associated to the period, location and frequency of occurrence represents an important tool to support agricultural practices. The objective of this work was to map the probable minimum monthly and fortnightly precipitation for Southern Minas Gerais State, applying geostatistical procedures. The probability level considered was 75% and the period evaluated was the rainy season. The values of probable minimum precipitation were estimated by Log-Normal Probability Distribution, following Kolmogorov-Smirnov adequacy test and using long-term daily precipitation data set of 69 pluviometric stations in the region and its surroundings. Exponential and spherical semi-variogram models, adjusted by Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Minimum Weighted Square (MWS), were modelled to choose the best to represent the experimental semi-variogram. Based on Spatial Dependence Degree and Cross-Validation, the exponential model adjusted by MWS presented better performance. The probable minimum precipitation maps have shown considerable variability during the rainy season. The greatest values were estimated for the region close to Mantiqueira and Canastra Ranges.

A simulação do comportamento hidrológico de bacias hidrográficas consiste em uma das principais ferramentas na gestão dos recursos hídricos, devido à possibilidade de predição do regime fluvial. A bacia em estudo está localizada na região Alto Rio Grande, Sul de Minas Gerais, com área de drenagem de 2.094 km², constituindo uma das bacias fundamentais de drenagem para o reservatório da Usina Hidrelétrica de Camargos (UHE - Camargos/CEMIG). Neste contexto se objetivou desenvolver e aplicar um modelo hidrológico semi-conceitual, na forma semi-distribuída, para simular o comportamento hidrológico da bacia do Rio Aiuruoca, com apoio dos SIGs e sensoriamento remoto, disponibilizando uma ferramenta útil para o gerenciamento e planejamento dos recursos hídricos na região. Os resultados do coeficiente estatístico de Nash-Sutcliffe (CNS) foram de 0,87 e 0,92 para as etapas de calibração e verificação, respectivamente, o que, de acordo com a classificação proposta para modelos hidrológicos de simulação, permite qualificá-lo para simulação do comportamento hidrológico na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Aiuruoca.

The hydrological simulation of watersheds is one of the most important tools for water resources management due to the possibility of flow regime prediction. The Aiuruoca river basin is located in the Alto Rio Grande Basin, southern Minas Gerais State, with 2,094 km² of drainage area, and is very important drainage basin into the Camargos Hydropower Plant Reservoir (UHE - Camargos/CEMIG). In this context, this work had the objective of developing and applying a semi-conceptual hydrologic model, in semi-distributed approach, for hydrologic simulation in the Aiuruoca river basin, based on GIS and Remote Sensing tools, thus creating an important tool for management and planning of water resources in the region. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients (CNS), respectively, for calibration and validation periods, were 0.87 and 0.92, showing that the model is able to simulate the hydrologic impacts on the basin, predicting its condition for feeding of the Camargos Reservoir.