ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to assess behavior patterns in Brazilian farm milk prices. We employed a structural time series techniques model, the Unobserved Component Model (UCM), which is part of the family of State Space models, to assess the trend, seasonality, cyclical behavior, and impacts of exogenous regressors on aggregated farm milk price behavior in Brazil from January 2005 to December 2019. We tested five alternative models with different regressors using the monthly national average prices of milk paid to farmers. The fit of the models was assessed with Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion. Predictions were assessed by the root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). All models demonstrated a high degree of accuracy. Trends, seasonality, and two cycles were statistically significant, with the trend and long-period cycle contributing the most to price variation. Exogenous factors such as feed cost and international dairy product prices also had significant positive effects on the level of Brazil’s farm milk prices. All models demonstrated a high degree of accuracy, which may indicate their usefulness for price forecasting and policy formulation. model UCM, UCM , (UCM) seasonality 200 2019 farmers RMSE, RMSE (RMSE) MAE, MAE (MAE) MAPE. MAPE . (MAPE) accuracy Trends longperiod long period variation Brazils s formulation (UCM 20 201 (RMSE (MAE (MAPE 2

RESUMO: O objetivo deste estudo é explorar as variáveis importantes associadas à fidelidade dos produtores de leite aos laticínios no contexto brasileiro. Um modelo de escolha discreta multivariada (Logit) e formulações alternativas foram usadas para avaliar as associações entre métricas de fidelidade e características de fazendas e processadores em uma amostra de 32 produtores de leite de 16 municípios da Zona da Mata, em Minas Gerais. Vinte e dois laticínios foram identificados como compradores de leite na região estudada, entretanto, cada produtor indicou que tem, em média, a possibilidade de vender o leite para cinco empresas diferentes. Os atributos dos agricultores, como escala de produção ou nível tecnológico, não foram estatisticamente associados significativamente à fidelidade. O preço atual do leite pago aos agricultores nessa amostra não está associado a probabilidade de aumento da fidelidade (vendas para um único laticínio por seis anos ou mais) em todos os modelos estimados. No entanto, pesquisas adicionais sobre esse impacto são necessárias para subsidiar políticas de preços aos produtores. As variáveis associadas ao aumento da fidelidade incluem pagamentos de prêmios pela qualidade, anos de experiência dos agricultores e a cooperação entre os agricultores na compra de insumos. O atraso no pagamento está associado à redução de fidelidade. Não foi possível determinar o efeito da participação em programas de assistência técnica oferecidos pelos processadores na fidelidade, provavelmente porque todos os produtores estudados recebem assistência técnica de graça de uma Universidade. O pagamento de prêmios com base no volume de leite também não foi associado à determinação da fidelidade. O pequeno tamanho de nossa amostra limita a capacidade de generalizar nossos resultados, mas fornece resultados exploratórios que facilitam investigações futuras.

ABSTRACT: The current study explores variables associated with the loyalty of dairy farmers to dairy processors in the Brazilian context. A multivariate discrete choice (Logit) model and alternative formulations assess the associations between loyalty metrics and farm and processor characteristics for a sample of 32 dairy farmers in 16 municipalities at the Zona da Mata in Minas Gerais. Twenty-two dairy processors were identified as milk buyers in the area studied, but each farmer indicated that they could sell to an average of five alternative buyers of milk. Farmers’ attributes such as production scale or the technological level are not statistically significantly associated with loyalty in this sample. The current milk price paid to farmers in our sample is not associated with increased loyalty (sales to a single processor for 6 or more years) in all estimated models; although, further research on this impact is merited to inform buyer-pricing policy. Variables associated with increased loyalty include payment of premiums for quality, farmer years of experience and cooperation among farmers in the purchase of inputs. Delayed payment is associated with reduced loyalty. We could not determine the effect of participation in technical assistance programs offered by processors on loyalty, because in our sample all farmers received free university-provided technical assistance. The payment of a premium based on milk volume was also unassociated with loyalty determination. The small size of our sample limits the ability to generalize our results but provides exploratory results that facilitate future investigation.

ABSTRACT The objective of this study is to apply Social Network Analysis (SNA) approach to improve the understanding of how to shape effective information diffusion policies among small-scale dairy farmers in rural communities of Brazil, for whom milk production is an important source of income. We interviewed 24 dairy farmers representing all participants of a dairy farmer association in a small-scale production community in the Zona da Mata of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Two sociograms were built by means of an adjacency matrix representing the two internal networks, friendship (F) and advising (A). The beta-centrality and betweenness centrality measures were calculated to identify central farmers and correlate with efficiency indicators in each network (F and A) using a quadratic assignment procedure (QAP). The two internal networks structures and individual thresholds of adoption were represented in an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the spread of the information among farmers. Our simulations indicate that the assortativity degree of social networks affects the information diffusion among farmers, highlighting the importance of opinion leaders versus convincing a critical mass to implement innovation strategies. Our analysis suggests that vertical policies focused on local opinion leaders will be more effective for enhancing the adoption of techniques that involve investments in private goods such as the adoption of artificial insemination, whereas horizontal policies, such as broadcasting information, will be more effective in encouraging investments in public and semi-public goods, such as the purchase of community cooling tanks and techniques for enhancing milk quality.

Com o objetivo de incrementar a eficiência técnica da atividade leiteira de um grupo de 30 produtores de origem familiar, foi realizada assistência técnica durante 12 meses com foco na intensificação do uso das pastagens. A experiência foi realizada no município de Guia Lopes da Laguna, em Mato Grosso do Sul. Constatou-se resistência na aceitação de algumas tecnologias por diversos fatores, entretanto, nas propriedades que seguiram as recomendações, observou-se aumento de 413% da produtividade da terra (l/ha/ano).

Aiming to increase the technical efficiency of dairy cattle herds from a group of 30 family farmers, were offered to them, technologies based on intensive use of pasture along 12 months. The experience was developed at Guia Lopes da Laguna county, Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil. As result, was noticed that the farmers have resistance of adopting new technologies explained by many factors. However, them that followed the recommendations had an increase of 413% of the land productivity (l/ha/year).

Con el objetivo de incrementar la eficiencia técnica de la actividad lechera de un grupo de 30 productores de la agricultura familiar, fue realizada asistencia técnica durante 12 meses con foco en la intensificación del uso de las pasturas. La experiencia fue realizada en el municipio de Guia Lopes da Laguna en Mato Grosso do Sul. Fue constatada resistencia en la aceptación de algunas tecnologías por diversos factores, mientras que, en las propiedades que siguieron las recomendaciones, fue observado aumento de 413% de la productividad de la tierra (1/ha/año).

RésuméDans le but d’accroître l’efficacité technique des produits laitiers d’un groupe de 30 producteurs d’origine familiale, il a été proposé une assistance technique pendant 12 mois en mettant l’accent sur l’une utilisation accrue des pâturages. L’expérience a été menée dans la communauté de Guia Lopes da Laguna, à la province de Mato Grosso do Sul. Il a été trouvé une résistance dans l’acceptation de certaines technologies causé par plusieurs facteurs, cependant, dans les propriétés qui ont suivi les recommandations, il y a eu une augmentation de 413% de la productivité des terres (l/ha/an).