RESUMO Objetivo: Calcular a taxa de recorrência de tuberculose, estimar seu tempo médio e identificar seus fatores associados no Brasil. Métodos: Estudo de coorte retrospectiva com dados de linkage do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação. Incluímos pessoas diagnosticadas com tuberculose em 2015, com foco naquelas que tiveram sua primeira recorrência em 6,5 anos. Estimamos o risco relativo (RR) e seus intervalos de confiança de 95% (IC95%), assim como a fração atribuível populacional (FAP) ou a fração prevenível populacional (FPP) dos fatores associados. Resultados: No período de 6,5 anos, 3.253 indivíduos (6,5%) tiveram recorrência de tuberculose, com tempo médio de 2,2 anos. Fatores positivamente associados incluíram: sexo masculino (RR: 1,4; IC95% 1,3–1,5; FAP: 22,9%), idade de 30 a 59 anos (RR: 3,0; IC95% 1,6–5,7; FAP: 36,0%), raça/cor preta (RR: 1,3; IC95% 1,2–1,5; FAP: 3,5%) ou raça/cor parda (RR: 1,3; IC95% 1,2–1,4; FAP: 10,6%), privação de liberdade (RR: 1,9; IC95% 1,7–2,1; FAP: 9,1%), forma clínica pulmonar/mista (RR: 1,7; IC95% 1,4–1,9; FAP: 37,1%), diagnóstico de síndrome da imunodeficiência adquirida (RR: 1,8; IC95% 1,5–1,9; FAP: 4,3%) e uso de álcool (RR: 1,2; IC95% 1,1–1,3; FAP: 2,9%). Fatores negativamente associados foram: 12 ou mais anos de estudo (RR: 0,5; IC95% 0,4–0,6; FPP: 3,3%) e tratamento supervisionado (RR: 0,9; IC95% 0,8–0,9; FPP: 4,4%). Conclusão: Revelamos taxas elevadas de recorrência de tuberculose no Brasil, com fatores sociodemográficos, comportamentais e sociais influenciando na recorrência da doença. Objetivo Brasil Métodos Notificação 2015 65 6 5 6, RR (RR 95 IC95%, IC95 IC , (IC95%) FAP (FAP FPP (FPP Resultados 3253 3 253 3.25 6,5% (6,5% 22 2 2, incluíram 1,4 14 1 4 1,3–1,5 1315 22,9%, 229 22,9% 9 22,9%) 3,0 0 1,6–5,7 1657 7 36,0%, 360 36,0% 36 36,0%) raçacor raça cor 1,3 13 1,2–1,5 1215 3,5% 35 1,2–1,4 1214 10,6%, 106 10,6% 10 10,6%) 1,9 19 1,7–2,1 1721 9,1%, 91 9,1% 9,1%) pulmonarmista pulmonar mista 1,7 17 1,4–1,9 1419 37,1%, 371 37,1% 37 37,1%) 1,8 18 8 1,5–1,9 1519 4,3% 43 1,2 1,1–1,3 1113 2,9%. 29 2,9% . 2,9%) foram 0,5 05 0,4–0,6 0406 3,3% 33 0,9 09 0,8–0,9 0809 4,4%. 44 4,4% 4,4%) Conclusão sociodemográficos doença 201 IC9 (IC95% 325 25 3.2 (6,5 1, 1,3–1, 131 22,9 3, 1,6–5, 165 36,0 1,2–1, 121 3,5 10,6 1,7–2, 172 9,1 1,4–1, 141 37,1 1,5–1, 151 4,3 1,1–1, 111 2,9 0, 0,4–0, 040 3,3 0,8–0, 080 4,4 20 (IC95 32 3. (6, 1,3–1 22, 1,6–5 16 36, 1,2–1 10, 1,7–2 9, 1,4–1 37, 1,5–1 15 4, 1,1–1 11 0,4–0 04 0,8–0 08 (IC9 (6 1,3– 1,6– 1,2– 1,7– 1,4– 1,5– 1,1– 0,4– 0,8– (IC ( 1,6 1,5 1,1 0,4 0,8
ABSTRACT Objective: To calculate the rate of tuberculosis recurrence, estimate its average time until recurrence, and identify factors associated with recurrence in Brazil. Methods: Retrospective cohort study with a linked database from the Notifiable Diseases Information System. The study included individuals diagnosed with tuberculosis in 2015, focusing on those who experienced their first recurrence within 6.5 years. We estimated the relative risk (RR) and its 95% confidence interval (95%CI), as well as the population attributable fraction (PAF) or the population preventable fraction (PPF) of associated factors. Results: Within a 6.5-year period, 3,253 individuals (6.5%) experienced tuberculosis recurrence, with a median time of 2.2 years. Positively associated factors included: male sex (RR: 1.4; 95%CI 1.3–1.5; PAF: 22.9%), age 30 to 59 years (RR: 3.0; 95%CI 1.6–5.7; PAF: 36.0%), black race (RR: 1.3; 95%CI 1.2–1.5; PAF: 3.5%), mixed race (RR: 1.3; 95%CI 1.2–1.4; PAF: 10.6%), deprivation of liberty (RR: 1.9; 95%CI 1.7–2.1; PAF: 9.1%), pulmonary/mixed clinical form (RR: 1.7; 95%CI 1.4–1.9; PAF: 37.1%), acquired immunodeficiency syndrome diagnosis (RR: 1.8; 95%CI 1.5–1.9; PAF: 4.3%), and alcohol use (RR: 1.2; 95%CI 1.1–1.3; PAF: 2.9%). Negatively associated factors were: 12 or more years of schooling (RR: 0.5; 95%CI 0.4–0.6; PPF: 3.3%) and supervised treatment (RR: 0.9; 95%CI 0.8–0.9; PPF: 4.4%). Conclusion: This study revealed high tuberculosis recurrence rates in Brazil, influenced by sociodemographic, compartmental, and social factors, both positively and negatively impacting disease recurrence. Objective Brazil Methods System 2015 65 6 5 6. RR (RR 95 95%CI, 95CI CI , (95%CI) PAF (PAF PPF (PPF Results 6.5year 65year year period 3253 3 253 3,25 6.5% (6.5% 22 2 2. 1.4 14 1 4 1.3–1.5 1315 22.9%, 229 22.9% 9 22.9%) 3.0 0 1.6–5.7 1657 7 36.0%, 360 36.0% 36 36.0%) 1.3 13 1.2–1.5 1215 3.5%, 35 3.5% 3.5%) 1.2–1.4 1214 10.6%, 106 10.6% 10 10.6%) 1.9 19 1.7–2.1 1721 9.1%, 91 9.1% 9.1%) pulmonarymixed pulmonary 1.7 17 1.4–1.9 1419 37.1%, 371 37.1% 37 37.1%) 1.8 18 8 1.5–1.9 1519 4.3%, 43 4.3% 4.3%) 1.2 1.1–1.3 1113 2.9%. 29 2.9% . 2.9%) were 0.5 05 0.4–0.6 0406 3.3% 33 0.9 09 0.8–0.9 0809 4.4%. 44 4.4% 4.4%) Conclusion sociodemographic compartmental 201 (95%CI 5year 325 25 3,2 (6.5 1. 1.3–1. 131 22.9 3. 1.6–5. 165 36.0 1.2–1. 121 3.5 10.6 1.7–2. 172 9.1 1.4–1. 141 37.1 1.5–1. 151 4.3 1.1–1. 111 2.9 0. 0.4–0. 040 3.3 0.8–0. 080 4.4 20 32 3, (6. 1.3–1 22. 1.6–5 16 36. 1.2–1 10. 1.7–2 9. 1.4–1 37. 1.5–1 15 4. 1.1–1 11 0.4–0 04 0.8–0 08 (6 1.3– 1.6– 1.2– 1.7– 1.4– 1.5– 1.1– 0.4– 0.8– ( 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.8