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OBJECTIVE: Apply a mathematical model to estimate the epidemic patterns of influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico during the stages of application and suspension of measures to mitigate the epidemic. METHODS: The effective reproductive number (R) for each state of Mexico during and after the application of social distancing measures was estimated by the SIR model (susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals) based on data published by the Ministry of Health of Mexico. RESULTS: From the beginning of the outbreak until suspension of school activities (28 April-13 May 2009), the national median of R was 1.13. In the following period (14 May-17 July 2009) the national median of R decreased to 1.01. CONCLUSIONS: It was demonstrated that several epidemic scenarios occurred at the national level. It is suggested that heterogeneous patterns at the state level be taken into account in decision-making on the adoption of measures to mitigate influenza epidemics.

OBJETIVO: Aplicar un modelo matemático para estimar el comportamiento epidémico de la influenza A (H1N1) en México durante las etapas de aplicación y suspensión de medidas para mitigar la epidemia. MÉTODOS: Se estimó el número reproductivo efectivo (R) para cada estado de México mediante el modelo SIR (individuos susceptibles, infectados y removidos) durante y después de la aplicación de las medidas de distanciamiento social a partir de los datos publicados por la Secretaría de Salud de México. RESULTADOS: Desde el inicio del brote hasta la suspensión de actividades escolares (28 de abril al 13 de mayo del 2009), la mediana nacional de R fue de 1,13. En el período posterior (14 de mayo al 17 de julio del 2009) la mediana nacional de R disminuyó a 1,01. CONCLUSIONES: Se demostró que se presentaron diversos escenarios de la epidemia a nivel nacional. Se sugiere tener en cuenta el comportamiento heterogéneo a nivel estatal para la toma de decisiones sobre la adopción de medidas para mitigar epidemias de influenza.

Index code	Element
ti	article title
au	author
kw	article keywords
subject	subject (title words, abstract and keywords)
ab	abstract
ta	journal short title (e.g. Cad. Saúde Pública)
journal_title	journal full title (e.g. Cadernos de Saúde Pública)
la	publication language code (e.g. pt - Portuguese, es - Spanish)
type	document type
pid	publication identifier
publication_year	publication year of publication
sponsor	sponsor
aff_country	country code of the author's affiliation
aff_institution	author affiliation institution
volume	article volume
issue	article issue
elocation	elocation
doi	DOI number
issn	journal ISSN
in	SciELO colection code (e.g. scl - Brasil, col - Colômbia)
use_license	article usage license code

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