ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION To provide equal access, health care provision should be distributed across geodemographic space based on need. In Argentina, the social security, publicly funded health care and private health care subsectors are responsible for delivering health services. In the public subsector, which is responsible for providing primary and secondary care mainly to the uninsured population, supply of services is not always associated with need. The lack of coordination between levels and subsectors makes it difficult to transform need into demand. OBJECTIVE Design a methodology to systematically estimate need, demand and supply of primary health care services based on secondary data sources in order to assess potential mismatches in any geographical area. METHODS An ecological analysis was conducted based on outpatient visits in primary care in Bahía Blanca, Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. A mathematical approach was proposed to systematize data collection by census tract regarding estimated need (number of outpatient visits needed, by specialty, according to age- and sex-specific care protocols and the area’s demographics), demand (actual outpatient visits by specialty in each primary health care center), and supply (visit capacity or available appointment slots, taking into account number of personnel hours worked, by specialty). RESULTS Demand for outpatient visits exceeded need (299,731) by 24% while available visit capacity (993,903) could have covered more than twice the number demanded (370,881). Analysis of the three variables grouped by area found that supply correlated more closely with demand (ρ = 0.90) than with need (ρ = 0.68), while spatial analysis showed that supply distribution responded to need. Areas with greater need had a health facility relatively close by, although supply was often located in areas of lower need, and some areas struggle with relatively high need and insufficient supply. CONCLUSIONS Results suggest the need for some reconfiguration of primary health care in the study area. The proposed mechanism for estimating relationship among supply, demand and need is a useful tool to support decision-making.

RESUMEN Objetivo Mostrar la utilidad de una herramienta estadística no paramétrica para medir la eficiencia de 190 países en la producción de status de salud, así como conocer los determinantes de dicha eficiencia. Métodos Con datos de 2009, y utilizando la técnica de Envolvente de Datos, se estima la frontera de eficiencia, utilizando como insumo al gasto total en salud per cápita y como productos la tasa de mortalidad infantil y la esperanza de vida al nacer. Se realiza un análisis de los determinantes de la eficiencia del gasto mediante el uso de modelos Tobit. Resultados Las naciones del continente africano presentan menor eficiencia técnico-asignativa, aunque mayor eficiencia de escala. La calidad de las instituciones muestra un impacto estadísticamente significativo sobre los niveles de eficiencia técnico-asignativa y de escala. El porcentaje de financiamiento del gasto por parte de aseguradoras privadas incide sobre la eficiencia técnico-asignativa mientras que el porcentaje de urbanización lo hace sobre la eficiencia de escala. Discusión El hecho de que más del 70 % de los países presente rendimientos decrecientes del gasto en salud sugeriría que, una vez alcanzados ciertos estándares mínimos de calidad de vida, el efecto marginal de cada dólar adicional destinado a salud no es sustancial. En países pobres donde el gasto en salud presenta rendimientos crecientes, el desempeño sanitario podría mejorar significativamente con incrementos marginales del gasto. Las estructuras de financiamiento del gasto en salud podrían estar influyendo sobre la eficiencia técnico-asignativa y el grado de urbanización podría hacerlo sobre la eficiencia de escala.

ABSTRACT Objective To measure the efficiency of 190 countries in producing health results and the factors that determine such efficiency. Methodology A data envelopment analysis was conducted on worldwide data from the year 2009 in order to estimate the efficient frontier, based on total health expenditure per capita, as well on infant mortality rate and life expectancy at birth. At the same time, an analysis of the determinants of expenditure efficiency was performed through Tobit models. Results African nations have lower technical and allocative efficiency, but higher scale efficiency. The quality of institutions has a statistically significant impact on the levels of technical and allocative efficiency and on the levels of scale efficiency. The percentage of health expenditure financed by private insurers has an impact on technical and allocative efficiency, while urbanization rates affect the scale efficiency. Discussion the fact that more than 70 % of countries show decreasing returns suggest that, once certain minimal standards of life quality are achieved, the marginal effect of each additional dollar assigned to health is not substantial. Conversely, in poor countries, where the expenditure in health presents increasing returns, the health performance could be substantially better by marginally raising the expenditure. On the other hand, financing structures of health expenditures may influence technical-allocative efficiency, while urbanization levels may impact scale efficiency (source: MeSH, NLM).

ABSTRACT Objective To measure the efficiency of 190 countries in producing health results and the factors that determine such efficiency. Methodology A data envelopment analysis was conducted on worldwide data from the year 2009 in order to estimate the efficient frontier, based on total health expenditure per capita, as well on infant mortality rate and life expectancy at birth. At the same time, an analysis of the determinants of expenditure efficiency was performed through Tobit models. Results African nations have lower technical and allocative efficiency, but higher scale efficiency. The quality of institutions has a statistically significant impact on the levels of technical and allocative efficiency and on the levels of scale efficiency. The percentage of health expenditure financed by private insurers has an impact on technical and allocative efficiency, while urbanization rates affect the scale efficiency. Discussion the fact that more than 70 % of countries show decreasing returns suggest that, once certain minimal standards of life quality are achieved, the marginal effect of each additional dollar assigned to health is not substantial. Conversely, in poor countries, where the expenditure in health presents increasing returns, the health performance could be substantially better by marginally raising the expenditure. On the other hand, financing structures of health expenditures may influence technical-allocative efficiency, while urbanization levels may impact scale efficiency (source: MeSH, NLM).

RESUMEN Objetivo Mostrar la utilidad de una herramienta estadística no paramétrica para medir la eficiencia de 190 países en la producción de status de salud, así como conocer los determinantes de dicha eficiencia. Métodos Con datos de 2009, y utilizando la técnica de Envolvente de Datos, se estima la frontera de eficiencia, utilizando como insumo al gasto total en salud per cápita y como productos la tasa de mortalidad infantil y la esperanza de vida al nacer. Se realiza un análisis de los determinantes de la eficiencia del gasto mediante el uso de modelos Tobit. Resultados Las naciones del continente africano presentan menor eficiencia técnico-asignativa, aunque mayor eficiencia de escala. La calidad de las instituciones muestra un impacto estadísticamente significativo sobre los niveles de eficiencia técnico-asignativa y de escala. El porcentaje de financiamiento del gasto por parte de aseguradoras privadas incide sobre la eficiencia técnico-asignativa mientras que el porcentaje de urbanización lo hace sobre la eficiencia de escala. Discusión El hecho de que más del 70 % de los países presente rendimientos decrecientes del gasto en salud sugeriría que, una vez alcanzados ciertos estándares mínimos de calidad de vida, el efecto marginal de cada dólar adicional destinado a salud no es sustancial. En países pobres donde el gasto en salud presenta rendimientos crecientes, el desempeño sanitario podría mejorar significativamente con incrementos marginales del gasto. Las estructuras de financiamiento del gasto en salud podrían estar influyendo sobre la eficiencia técnico-asignativa y el grado de urbanización podría hacerlo sobre la eficiencia de escala.