Abstract We estimated genetic parameters of two Pinus caribaea var. caribaea progeny tests based on growth traits aiming at the identification of the best selection strategy. This study was conducted in two progeny tests located in Selvíria (MS), Brazil. Tests were set up in block design, one with 76 progenies (area 1) and the other with 99 progenies (area 2). Genetic parameters were estimated using the SELEGEN software through REML/BLUP method. To estimate the genetic gain through selection, four selection methods and ten selection intensities were tested. The intensity of selection that maximizes genetic gain and genetic diversity was calculated by the optimization point. Significant variation was observed between and with progeny for all traits in area 2 and only within plots for height in area 1. Higher values of heritability were observed in area 1. Considering the optimization of selection, the best selection method for both areas was the individual. var strategy MS, MS , (MS) Brazil design 7 1 9 2. . 2) REMLBLUP REML BLUP tested point individual (MS

RESUMO Neste trabalho, foi realizada a previsão da distribuição de M. urundeuva Fr. All., com base na região de ocorrência natural da espécie. Suas coordenadas geográficas foram obtidas nas bases de dados online CRIA e SpecialLinks, a partir de artigos científicos e trabalhos de campo realizados pela Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) em Ilha Solteira, São Paulo, Brasil. M. urundeuva é uma espécie arbórea nativa com grande potencial para uso comercial no Brasil. Para tanto, foi utilizada a modelagem de nicho ecológico, com camadas atuais de variáveis climáticas e camadas preparadas para cenários climáticos futuros, de acordo com o 4º Relatório do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (AR4/IPCC), utilizando dados do Worldclim no Brasil. Com os programas Open Modeller e ArcGIS, foram gerados mapas para prever sua ocorrência para o período atual e para cenários climáticos futuros, feitos de acordo com as projeções de mudanças climáticas globais. Com a projeção de aumentos de temperatura e precipitação na região onde ocorre a espécie, ela tende a migrar para áreas do Brasil onde o clima é atualmente mais ameno, nas regiões Sul e Sudeste. Devido às mudanças climáticas, a espécie tende a sofrer mudanças na distribuição e tamanho de área até 2080. Foi projetado para a Caatinga e Pantanal, nos dois períodos, um aumento de área, enquanto para o Cerrado, no primeiro período, a área aumentou e para o segundo, diminuiu. Portanto, de acordo com os resultados dos mapas de projeções futuras para as próximas décadas, conclui-se que haverá mudanças na distribuição de M. urundeuva, com redução significativa da área potencial de ocorrência na região.

ABSTRACT In this work, the prediction of the distribution of M. urundeuva Fr. All. was performed based on the region of natural occurrence of the species. Its geographic coordinates were obtained from online databases CRIA and SpecialLinks, from scientific articles and fieldwork carried out by Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) in Ilha Solteira, São Paulo, Brazil. M. urundeuva is a native tree species with great potential for commercial use in Brazil. For this purpose, ecological niche modeling was used, with current layers of climate variables and layers prepared for future climate scenarios, according to the 4th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR4/IPCC), using Worldclim data on Brazil. With the Open Modeller and ArcGIS programs, maps were generated to predict its occurrence for the current period and future climate scenarios, made according to the projections of global climate changes. With the projection of increases in temperature and precipitation in the area where the species occurs, it tends to migrate to areas of Brazil where the climate is currently milder, in the south and southeast regions. Due to climatic changes, the species tends to undergo changes in distribution and area size until 2080. It was projected for Caatinga and Pantanal, in both periods, an increase in area, while for the Cerrado, in the first period, the area increased, and, for the second, it decreased. Therefore, according to the results of the maps of future projections for the next decades, it is concluded that there will be changes in the distribution of M. urundeuva, with a significant reduction of the potential area of occurrence in the region.

Abstract Cordia trichotoma is a Brazilian species that has been studied for different forest systems. However, genetic breeding programs could highly improve species use. To obtain a better yield, it is essential to identify the species genotypes with superior performance. Thus, the work objective of this work was to estimate genetic divergence in two C. trichotoma progenies tests based on phenotypic traits. The experimental design adopted was the randomized blocks, one plant per plot, using 40 (area one) and 34 (area two) repetitions, using 3.0 m × 3.0 m spacing. The evaluated traits were diameter at 1.30 m above the soil (DBH-cm), total height (HT-m), collar diameter at 30 cm above the ground (DC-cm), and height of the first whorl (HFW-cm). The estimate of genetic divergence and the Tocher clustering method was performed using the REML / BLUP method. The genetic distances between the progenies in area 1 were 2.13 and 47.74 (17 and 15). In area two the genetic distances between the progenies were 3.64 (9 and 15) and 48.28 (12 and 7). The progenies formed 10 and 4 distinct groups, respectively, in area 1 and area 2). The traits that most contributed to genetic divergence were DBH-2016 (14.65%) in area one, and HT-2014 (14.32%) in area two. In sumary, the C. trichotoma progenies show high genetic divergence. Regarding breeding programs, it is recommended to cross progenies from the most divergent groups to heighten the genetic gain through the selection of more productive genotypes.

Resumen Cordia trichotoma es una especie nativa que está siendo evaluada para diferentes sistemas forestales. El hecho de que los individuos empleados en las plantaciones posean algún grado de mejoramiento genético tiene muchas ventajas; para lograr este mejoramiento es fundamental la obtención de genotipos superiores, a fin de obtener un mejor rendimiento del producto final. El objetivo del presente estudio fue estimar la divergencia genética de progenies de C. trichotoma en dos diferentes condiciones de textura de suelo, por medio de caracteres fenotípicos. El diseño experimental fue bloques completos al azar, un árbol por parcela con 40 (área 1) y 34 (área 2) repeticiones, con espaciamiento de 3,0 m × 3,0 m. Los caracteres evaluados fueron: diámetro a altura del pecho, altura total de plantas, diámetro de cuello y altura del primer verticilo. Para estimar la divergencia genética y el agrupamiento de Tocher fue utilizado el método REML/BLUP. Las distancias entre las progenies en el área 1 fueron de 2,13 y 47,74 (17 y 15), en el área 2 las distancias entre las progenies fueron de 3,64 (9 y 15) y 48,28 (12 y 7). Las progenies formaron diez y cuatro grupos distintos (área 1 y área 2). Los caracteres que más contribuyeron para divergencia genética fueron diámetro a la altura del pecho-2016 (14,65%) área 1, y altura total de plantas-2014 (14,32%) área 2. Las progenies de C. trichotoma presentaron alta divergencia genética. En programas de mejoramiento, se recomienda el cruzamiento entre progenies de los grupos más divergentes para priorizar la ganancia con selección de los genotipos más productivos.

Abstract Forest fragmentation in the Cerrado biome exposes the tree species Myracrodruon urundeuva to the risk of extinction. Thus, the objective of the study was to evaluate silvicultural characteristics related to wood quality, based on genetic parameters estimated in two M. urundeuva progenies from natural populations, assessed in Bauru-SP (PBAU) and Selvíria-MS (PSEL), 31 years after planting. The genetic parameters were estimated according to the REML/BLUP (Restricted maximum likelihood/Best Linear Unbiased Prediction) method using a mixed linear model. The progeny tests detected genetic variation. In PSEL, more positive genetic correlations and a greater number of clusters were observed. Based on the heartwood/sapwood ratio, a higher genetic gain was predicted for PBAU, and for the basic wood density, the genetic gain of the populations was approximately the same. Consequently, the areas of the two progeny tests may be used as future seed orchards to ensure wood quality and long-term ex situ conservation.