Purposes(a) To externally validate the Crippa and colleagues’ nomograms combining PSA, percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPBC) and biopsy Gleason score to predict organ-confined disease (OCD) in a contemporary sample of patients treated at a tertiary teaching institution. (b) To adjust such variables, resulting in predictive nomograms for OCD and seminal vesicle invasion (SVI): the USP nomograms.Materials and MethodsThe accuracy of Crippa and colleagues’ nomograms for OCD prediction was examined in 1002 men submitted to radical prostatectomy between 2005 and 2010 at the University of São Paulo (USP). ROC-derived area under the curve (AUC) and Brier scores were used to assess the discriminant properties of nomograms for OCD. Nomograms performance was explored graphically with LOESS smoothing plots. Furthermore, univariate analysis and logistic regression models targeted OCD and SVI. Variables consisted of PSA, PPBC, biopsy Gleason score and clinical stage. The resulted predictive nomograms for OCD and SVI were internally validated with bootstrapping and the same abovementioned procedures.ResultsCrippa and colleagues’ nomograms for OCD showed ROC AUC = 0.68 (CI: 0.65-0.70), Brier score = 0.17 and overestimation in LOESS plots. USP nomograms for OCD and SVI showed ROC AUC of 0.73 (CI: 0.70-0.76) and 0.77 (CI: 0.73-0.79), respectively, and Brier scores of 0.16 and 0.08, respectively. The LOESS plots showed excellent calibration for OCD and underestimation for SVI.ConclusionsCrippa and colleagues’ nomograms showed moderate discrimination and considerable OCD overestimation. USP nomograms showed good discrimination for OCD and SVI, as well as excellent calibration for OCD and SVI underestimation.

Purpose Single positive core in a prostate biopsy is usually associated with indolent prostate cancer (PCa) and is one of the active surveillance (AS) inclusion criteria. We investigated whether single positive core PCa at biopsy could define an archetype of low-risk disease. Materials and Methods A total of 1320 consecutive patients were enrolled. Among them, 249 patients with single positive core PCa were followed up, and the clinical and pathological parameters influencing prognosis were analyzed. Results Out of the 249 patients, 172 (69.0%) had pathological findings ≥ pT2c and 87 (34.9%) had an undergraded Gleason Score (GS) based on the biopsy. Positive surgical margins (PSMs), extraprostatic extension (EPE) and seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) were found in 20.8%, 10.0% and 6.0% of patients, respectively. In a comparative analysis, we found that the PSA level, prostate weight and number of cores at biopsy are essential to correctly predict an indolent PCa. A total of 125 patients (67.3%) with nonpalpable tumors became high-risk tumors (pT2c-T3). Analyzing only nonpalpable tumors with a GS of 6 at biopsy (156 patients), we noted that 106 (67.9% of cT1) progressed from cT1c to pT2c-pT3. Conclusions Single core PCa have clinically significant disease in the Radical Prostatectomy specimens, with considerable rates of overgrading for the GS, pT2c-pT3, PSMs, EPE and SVI. The treatment plan must be evaluated individually for patients with single core PCa and must take into account other prognostic factors when determining whether a patient should be managed with AS.