Abstract The oceans play an important role in mitigating climate change by acting as large carbon sinks, especially at high latitude regions. The Southern Ocean plays a major role in the global carbon dioxide (CO2) budget. This work aims to investigate the behavior of turbulent CO2 fluxes and quantify it under different atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Drake Passage and Bransfield Strait regions on high spatiotemporal resolutions when compared with traditional CO2 fluxes estimations. The atmospheric stability condition was used to corroborate the description of CO2 fluxes. In situ, satellite, and reanalysis data from 08 to 22 November 2018, were used in this work. The Bransfield Strait uptaked 38.59% more CO2 than the Drake Passage due to the cold and fresh waters, allied to the influence of glacial meltwater dilution. Which increased the CO2 solubility, directing the CO2 fluxes to the ocean. The Bransfield Strait had predominantly stable atmospheric conditions, which contributed to this region acting as a CO2 sink. The Drake Passage, on average, behaved as a CO2 sink, mainly due to physical characteristics. This research contributes to a better understanding of the Southern Ocean’s role in the global carbon balance on scales that are very difficult to monitor.

Abstract The Antarctic region has experienced recent climate and environmental variations due to climate change, such as ice sheets and ice shelves loss, and changes in the production, extension, and thickness of sea-ice. These processes mainly affect the freshwater supply to the Southern Ocean and its water masses formation and export, being crucial to changes in the global climate. Here, we review the influence of the glacial freshwater input on the Antarctic Peninsula adjacent ocean. We highlight each climate process’ relevance on freshwater contribution to the sea and present a current overview of how these processes are being addressed and studied. The increase of freshwater input into the ocean carries several implications on climate, regionally and globally. Due to glacier melting, the intrusion of colder and lighter water into the ocean increases the stratification of the water column, influencing the sea-ice increase and reducing ocean-atmosphere exchanges, affecting the global water cycle. This study shows the role of each hydrological cycle processes and their contributions to the regional oceanography and potentially to climate.

Abstract The formation of dense water masses at polar regions has been largely influenced by climate changes arising from global warming. In this context, based on ensemble simulations with a coupled model we evaluate the meridional shift of a climate signal (i.e., a cold and fresh water input pulse generated from melting of positive Antarctic sea ice (ASI) extremes) towards the Tropical Atlantic Ocean (TAO). This oceanic signal propagated from Southern Ocean towards the equator through the upper layers due to an increase in its buoyance. Its northward shift has given by the Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) flows, that inject cold and fresh mode/intermediate waters from into subtropical basin. The signal has reached low latitudes through the equatorial upwelling and spreads out southwards, through the upper branch of southern subtropical gyre. We concluded that 10 years of coupled simulations was enough time to propagate the climate signal generated by ASI positive extremes melting, which reached TOA around 2 year later. The oceanic connection between Southern Ocean and TAO is indeed established within the timescale analyzed in the study (10 years). Nonetheless, the period needed to completely dissipate the disturbance generated from ASI seems to be longer.

Abstract The variability of Antarctic sea ice (ASI) has great potential to affect atmospheric circulation, with impacts that can extend from the surface to the middle and high levels of troposphere. The present study has evaluated the response of South Atlantic tropospheric circulation to increased coverage in area and volume of ASI. Monthly data of air temperature, zonal and meridional wind and mean sea level pressure were obtained from two ensemble simulations performed with the GDFL/CM2.1 model, covering the period from July 2020 to June 2030. In general, the response of South Atlantic tropospheric circulation to increased ASI showed that the climatic signal extended up from the surface to the high levels, propagating as a South Pole–Tropics teleconnection. The results show a general cooling of the southern troposphere, which for instance lead to the strengthening and northward shift of the polar jet and the southward shift of the subtropical jet and to an inversion from the positive to negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode. This study has great relevance for understanding the global climate changes in short term, by assessing the sensitivity of South Atlantic tropospheric circulation to extreme variations in ASI.

Abstract Global climate change is expected to increasingly affect climate-sensitive sectors of society, such as the economy and environment, with significant impacts on water, energy, agriculture and fisheries. This is the case in South America, whose economy is highly dependent on the agricultural sector. Here, we analyzed the sensitivity of South American climate to positive extremes of Antarctic sea ice (ASI) extent and volume at continental and regional scales. Sensitivity ensemble experiments were conducted with the GFDL-CM2.1 model and compared with the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. The results have shown significant impacts on the seasonal regime of precipitation, air temperature and humidity in South America, such as a gradual establishment of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, the formation of the Upper Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortex, the strengthening of Bolivian High and the presence of a low level cyclonic circulation anomaly over the South Atlantic Subtropical High region which contributed, for instance, to increased precipitation over the Southeastern Brazil. A northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone was initially also a response pattern to the increased ASI. Moreover, the greatest variance of the climatic signal generated from the disturbances applied on the high southern latitudes has occurred in the interseasonal timescale (110–120 days), especially over the Brazilian Amazon and the Southeastern Brazil regions.

Resumo De um modo geral, a interação do oceano com a atmosfera em regiões de intensa atividade da mesoescala oceânica (frentes oceanográficas, meandros e turbilhões de escalas espaciais típicas de cerca de 100-500 km e escalas temporais de cerca de 2-3 meses) apresenta uma correlação positiva entre a temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM) e variáveis meteorológicas tais como a estabilidade da Camada Limite Atmosférica Marinha (CLAM), a intensidade do vento e os fluxos de calor, de momentum e de gases entre o oceano e a atmosfera. Isto sugere que o oceano força a atmosfera nas escalas espaciais e temporais relacionados à mesoescala oceânica. Principalmente com base em dados observacionais, porém não exclusivamente, este trabalho apresenta uma breve revisão científica sobre o impacto das estruturas de mesoescala presentes no Oceano Atlântico Sudoeste em alguns componentes do sistema acoplado oceano-atmosfera que, em certos aspectos, impactam o tempo e o clima da regiões continentais adjacentes na América do Sul. Inclui-se neste artigo também uma breve revisão do estado da arte do conhecimento sobre a parte oceânica da Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul. Este artigo apresenta as características oceanográficas gerais da área de estudo, incluindo alguns aspectos sobre a circulação do Atlântico Sul e a variabilidade. Lembrando do fato que o Atlântico Sudoeste e Sul são regiões consideradas como trilha de tempestade, este trabalho também discute os impactos dos gradientes de TSM do Oceano Atlântico Sul Ocidental sobre os sistemas atmosféricos transientes que atravessam frequentemente esta região. Além disso, o artigo discute novos indícios de que os processos oceanográficos que ocorrem no litoral sul do Brasil no inverno tem um forte impacto sobre a modulação CLAM sobre a plataforma continental do sul do Brasil. O artigo aponta também índicos passados e presentes que os processos ecológicos causados pela variabilidade climática atmosférica e marinha na costa sul do Brasil impactam na desova e captura da sardinha (Sardinella Brasiliensis), que é um dos mais importantes recursos marinhos renováveis do Brasil. O artigo termina apresentando alguns dos esforços observacionais atuais do Brasil, visando a coleta de dados meteorológicos e marinhos no Oceano Atlântico Equatorial e Sul. Estes esforços visam aumentar a nossa compreensão do acoplamento oceano-atmosfera nas escalas sinóticas e climáticas, bem como o papel do Oceano Atlântico em controlar o calor, momentum e fluxos de dióxido de carbono para a atmosfera.

Abstract In a general view, the interaction of the ocean with the atmosphere in regions of intense oceanic mesoscale activity (oceanographic fronts, meanders and eddies typical of spatial scales of about 100-500 km and time scales of about 2-3 months) presents a positive correlation between the sea surface temperature (SST) and meteorological variables such as the stability of the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL), the wind intensity and the heat, momentum and gas fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere. This suggests that the ocean forces the atmosphere at the spatial and temporal scales related to the oceanic mesoscale. Mostly based on observational data, this work presents a brief scientific revision on the impact of the mesoscale structures present in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean on some components of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system that, in certain aspects, impact the weather and the climate of the adjacent continental regions of South America. It is also included in this article a brief review of the state of the art knowledge about the oceanic part of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. This paper presents the general oceanographic characteristics of the study area, including some aspects about the South Atlantic circulation and variability. Recalling the fact that the subtropical South Atlantic is a Storm Track region, this paper also discusses the impacts of the SST gradients of the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean on the transient atmospheric systems that frequently cross the region. In addition, the paper discusses novel indications that the oceanographic processes occurring at the southern coast of Brazil in wintertime have a marked impact on the MABL modulation over the southern Brazilian continental shelf. The paper reports past and present indications that the ecological processes caused by the atmospheric and marine climate variability of the southern coast of Brazil impact the spawning and catches of the Brazilian sardine (Sardinella brasiliensis), one of most important renewable marine resources of Brazil. The paper finishes presenting some of the current observational efforts of Brazil aiming the collection of marine meteorology data in the South and Equatorial Atlantic Ocean. These efforts intend to widen our understanding of the ocean-atmosphere coupling at the synoptic and climatic scales as well as the role of the Atlantic Ocean in controlling the heat, momentum and carbon dioxide fluxes to the atmosphere.

Estudos têm sugerido uma intensificação e um deslocamento do máximo da tensão de cisalhamento do vento (TCV) para latitudes mais altas no Oceano Austral, em função de um aumento na magnitude do vento em latitudes extratropicais no Hemisfério Sul. Diante do exposto, o objetivo do trabalho é investigar o comportamento anômalo das circulações oceânica e atmosférica devido ao aumento da TCV em 50% na região equatorial e extratropical do Hemisfério Sul. Pretende-se, especificamente, analisar as alterações no gradiente inter-hemisférico de anomalias de TSM e na Oscilação Antártica. Para tal fim, utiliza-se um modelo climático acoplado de complexidade intermediária (SPEEDO). Os resultados demonstram que a intensificação da TCV na região equatorial, ocasiona uma diminuição da temperatura da superfície do mar na região tropical, devido ao aumento da ressurgência, favorecendo a mudanças no gradiente inter-hemisférico de anomalias de TSM e uma intensificação da precipitação no nordeste brasileiro. Por outro lado, a intensificação da TCV na região extratropical do Hemisfério Sul induz a um aumento da temperatura da superfície do mar e do ar em médias e altas latitudes do Hemisfério Sul, além de uma redução na espessura do gelo marinho Antártico, favorecendo ao enfraquecimento da fase positiva da Oscilação Antártica.

Studies have suggested intensification and shift of the wind stress maximum towards the south in the Southern Ocean due to wind intensification in extratropical latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. Considering these evidences, the objective of this study is to investigate the impacts in atmospheric and oceanic circulation due to the increasing wind stress by 50% in the equatorial region and in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere region. Specifically, changes in the Atlantic Dipole and Antarctic Oscillation are analyzed. For this purpose, a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity (SPEEDO) is employed. The results show that the wind stress intensification in the equatorial region causes a decrease in sea surface temperature in the tropical region, due to increased upwelling. This causes changes in Atlantic Dipole and enhanced precipitation over Brazilian northeast. Moreover, the wind stress intensification in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere region induces an increase in sea surface temperature and air temperature in high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, and a reduction in the Antarctic sea ice thickness, favoring a weakening of positive Antarctic Oscillation phase.

Este trabalho apresenta um estudo sobre a variabilidade dos campos de anomalia da temperatura da superfície do mar (ATSM), obtidos através imagens de satélites em regiões sob a influência dos diferentes regimes oceanográficos e/ou biofísicos no Oceano Atlântico Sudoeste (ATS). Para tanto, séries temporais de ATSM de 1985 a 2006 foram investigadas em nove sub-áreas no ATS, divididas nos domínios subtropical, intermediário e subantártico. Análise espectral aplicada às séries de ATSM revelou ciclos no período interanual entre 1,6 e 3,7 anos. Análise de correlação cruzada foi usada para estabelecer a relação entre os ciclos presentes na ATSM e os eventos do fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS), representados aqui a partir do Índice Multivariado do ENOS (MEI). Os resultados evidenciam uma correlação estatisticamente significante, defasada no tempo, entre o ENOS e anomalias termais no ATS, porém sem uma associação direta entre os episódios quentes (frios) de El Niño (La Niña) e ATSMs positivas (negativas). Dentre as diversas áreas de estudo, a correlação é máxima sobre a região da Confluência Brasil-Malvinas (-0,78), com defasagem de tempo de 9 meses após a La Niña de maio de 1988 a maio de 1989.

This work presents a study on the variability of satellite-derived sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) fields in regions under the influence of different oceanographic and/or biophysical patterns in the South-western Atlantic Ocean (SWA). In order to accomplish that, time series of SSTA from 1985 to 2006 were investigated over nine sub-areas in the SWA, divided into the subtropical, intermediate and sub Antarctic domains. Spectral analysis applied to the SSTA time series reveled cycles in the interannual period between 1.6 and 3.7 years. Cross correlation analysis was used aiming to establish the relation between the cycles present in the SSTA and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, represented here by the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). The results show a statistically significant, lagged in time, correlation between the ENSO and thermal anomalies in the SWA, however there is no direct association between the warm (cold) El Niño (La Niña) episodes with positive (negative) SSTAs. Among all distinct study areas, the maximum correlation occurs in the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence region (-0,78), with a time lag of 9 months after the La Niña of May 1988 to May 1989.

Uma técnica de pós-processamento é aplicada para corrigir estatisticamente, as previsões de precipitação geradas pelos modelos climáticos numéricos disponíveis no CPTEC. O método chamado de Esquema Estatístico de Combinação e Correção de Previsões Climáticas (ECCOCLIM) é determinístico e baseia-se no método de Regressão Linear Múltipla (RLM). A verificação do desempenho é feita com a técnica de validação cruzada. Apesar dos ganhos observados nas previsões com o novo método serem localizados e variados ao longo dos anos, estes são destacados em áreas da América do Sul, as quais usualmente apresentam baixa previsibilidade climática, como no caso das regiões Sudeste e Centro-Oeste. Em geral, sobre a América do Sul o ECCOCLIM mostra resultados melhores, reduzindo os erros, comparados à tradicional média aritmética das previsões de diferentes modelos.

A post-processing technique is applied to statistically correct the rainfall forecasts done by numerical climate models available at CPTEC. The statistical algorithm, called Climate Forecast Combining and Correcting Statistical Scheme (ECCOCLIM), is deterministic and based on the Linear Multiple Regression (LMR) method. The skill of the ECCOCLIM is verified with the cross-validation method. Although the forecast improvements using the new method are localized in certain regions and vary throughout the year, they are remarkable over South America, mainly in those areas where climatic previsibility is commonly low as the case of Southeast and Central-West regions. ECCOCLIM shows encouraging results over South America reducing the errors when compared to the traditional arithmetic mean of forecasts of different models.

A sensibilidade da parametrização de convecção tipo cumulus é investigada com o uso do modelo de circulação geral da atmosfera (MCGA) CPTEC/COLA. Este modelo tem sido usado no CPTEC/INPE desde 1995 com o esquema Kuo de convecção para previsões de tempo e sazonal climática. Neste estudo, dois conjuntos de integrações são realizados usando-se temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM) climatológica como condição inferior de contorno, do verão do Hemisfério Sul (Dezembro, Janeiro e Fevereiro). Cinco integrações partindo de condições iniciais diferentes são usadas para cada conjunto. O estudo foi dividido em dois grupos, um deles usando esquema de convecção modificado de Arakawa-Schubert Relaxado, que tem modificações na física da convecção (ARAS) e um outro que usou o esquema Kuo (KUO). Os resultados de circulação atmosférica e da precipitação simulada pelo modelo são comparados com os dados de re-análises do NCEP/NCAR e com a precipitação do conjunto CMAP. Os resultados são analisados principalmente sobre a América do Sul, e também sobre o Hemisfério Sul para verificar a resposta do MCGA, comparado-se com as observações quando diferentes esquemas de convecção são usados. O esquema modificado de Arakawa-Schubert Relaxado reduz os erros em várias áreas América do Sul, quando se compara com os resultados da versão usada previamente, Arakawa-Schubert Relaxado (RAS). Sobre grande parte das áreas da América do Sul o esquema KUO apresenta erros menores que o ARAS. Sobre o oceano Pacífico Tropical, Sudeste do Brasil e Sul do Nordeste do Brasil o esquema ARAS apresenta melhores resultados.

The sensitivity of cumulus convection parameterizations is investigated using the CPTEC/COLA Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) with T62L28 resolution. This model has been used at CPTEC/INPE since 1995 with the Kuo convective scheme for weather and seasonal climate forecasts. In this study, two sets of integrations are performed using climatological Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the Southern Hemisphere summer season (December, January and February) as bottom boundary conditions. Five integrations with different initial conditions are applied for each ensemble. The study was divided in two groups, one using the adjusted Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert convection scheme considering modifications in the convection physics (ARAS) and the other one using the Kuo convection scheme (KUO). The atmospheric circulation and precipitation model results are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and CMAP precipitation data. The results are analyzed mainly over South America and also for the Southern Hemisphere to verify the model response compared to observed data when different convection scheme is applied. The adjusted scheme for RAS suggested in this study, reduced errors in several areas of South America, when comparing with the previous version. Over most of South America areas KUO gives smaller errors than ARAS. Over tropical Pacific Ocean, Southeastern Brazil and south of northeast Brazil, ARAS scheme shows better results.

A influência dos modos dc variabilidade climática dc grande escala dominantes no Pacifico e Atlântico nas chuvas da Amazônia é investigada. A técnica de compósitos das anomalias dc precipitação na Amazônia é usada neste trabalho. Os anos base destes compósitos são aqueles do período 1960-1998 com ocorrências de extremos na Oscilação Sul (El Niño ou La Niña) e de padrão de dipolo norte/sul quente (ou frio) nas anomalias de TSM no Atlântico tropical. Dipolo quente (frio) significa anomalias positivas (negativas) no Atlântico tropical Norte e negativas (positivas) no Atlântico tropical Sul. Compósitos dc verão e outono austrais para extremos na Oscilação Sul (El Niño ou La Niña) e independente para padrão de dipolo norte/sul (quente ou frio) de anomalias de TSM no Atlântico tropical, apresentam valores (magnitude e signal) consistentes com aqueles encontrados cm trabalhos anteriores sobre a relação entre as variações de precipitação na Amazônia c anomalias de TSM no Pacífico e Atlântico tropicais. No entanto, compósitos dos verões e outonos austrais para os anos com ocorrências simultâneas de El Niño e dipolo quente norte/sul dc anomalias de TSM no Atlântico tropical mostram anomalias negativas de precipitação estendendo-se para leste sobre a Amazônia ccntro-leste. Este resultado indica o importante papel desempenhado pelo Atlântico tropical na distribuição anômala de precipitação na Amazônia.

The influence of the large-scale climatic variability dominant modes in the Pacific and in the Atlantic on Amazonian rainfall is investigated. The composite technique of the Amazon precipitation anomalies is used in this work. The basis years for these composites arc those in the period 1960-1998 with occurrences of extremes in the Southern Oscillation (El Niño or La Niña) and the north/south warm (or cold) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies dipole pattern in the tropical Atlantic. Warm (cold) dipole means positive (negative) anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic and negative (positive) anomalies in the tropical South Atlantic. Austral summer and autumn composites for extremes in the Southern Oscillation (El Niño or La Niña) and independently for north/south dipole pattern (warm or cold) of the SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic present values (magnitude and sign) consistent with those found in previous works on the relationship between Amazon rainfall variations and the SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. However, austral summer and autumn composites for the years with simultaneous occurrences of El Niño and warm north/south dipole of the SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic show negative precipitation anomalies extending eastward over the center-eastern Amazon. This result indicates the important role played by the tropical Atlantic in the Amazon anomalous rainfall distribution.