Abstract Paper aims This paper proposes a warehouse design framework for evaluating the most robust combination of layout alternatives, tactical (picking, storage) and operational (routing) control policies, considering simultaneously the service level, costs and resource utilization criteria. Originality We applied an innovative Morphological Analysis to reduce the number of alternatives and evaluate the uncertainties in warehouse design. We also address the effect of congestion and options for configuring the layout of aisles. Research method We apply multicriteria decision analysis and discrete event simulation to evaluate the most robust combination between layout alternatives and operational control policies. We also suggest the use of scenario planning to deal with the high uncertainties involved in the order picking activity. Main findings Our framework captures the warehouse manager’s preference and experience by means of weight elicitation, value functions, scenario planning and an inter-scenario robustness index to provide a robust final solution. Implications for theory and practice For theory, we highlight the combination of methods applied to a strategic, tactical and operational warehouse design problem in an environment with uncertainties. For practice, warehouse managers may use the framework to explore and find out which combination of control policies and layout can meet the company’s objectives. picking, (picking storage routing (routing level criteria aisles activity manager s elicitation functions interscenario inter solution strategic companys company objectives

Resumo Análise de risco de terrorismo é um dos maiores desafios enfrentados pelas autoridades que definem a política de alocação de recursos de uma nação. Este artigo provê uma breve revisão de duas abordagens tradicionalmente usadas para esse propósito: Análise de Risco Probabilística e Teoria dos Jogos. Adicionalmente, ele introduz no contexto brasileiro a Análise de Risco Adversário, uma metodologia inovadora que objetica analisar os riscos causados por oponentes inteligentes. Finalmente, uma situação hipotética da Análise de Risco Adversário é apresentada. Os resultados mostram que essa metodologia pode ser utilizada para apoiar decisões sobre a alocação de recursos de defesa no contexto de megaeventos esportivos que são de interesse de diversos países.

Abstract Terrorism risk assessment is one of the biggest challenges that authorities must face to define the defensive resource allocation policy for a country. This article provides a brief review of two approaches that have been traditionally used for this purpose: Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Game Theory. Additionally, it introduces the Adversary Risk Analysis approach to the Brazilian context; an innovative methodology that aims to assess risks caused by intelligent opponents. Finally, an application of Adversarial Risk Analysis in a hypothetical situation is presented. The results show that Adversarial Risk Analysis can be useful to support decisions about defensive resource allocation in contexts such as sports mega events, a reality for many countries around the world.