Abstract Michał Kalecki wrote an article on government expenditures financed by taxes on profits, which set forth an interesting debate between him and Keynes, the latter being the editor of the journal in which Kalecki’s article was published. Later, in 1950s, Kalecki wrote a few empirical studies to substantiate his theory. Two of these papers dealt with the US economy, in which he adopted a novel method of analysis. However, his methodology did not have the deserved impact, even amongst his followers. This article revisits Kalecki’s analysis to understand the recent evolution of the US economy.

Resumen Michał Kalecki escribió un artículo sobre el gasto público financiado por impuestos sobre las ganancias, el cual incentivó un interesante debate entre él y Keynes; este último fue el editor de la revista en que el artículo se publicó. Más tarde, en los años cincuenta, Kalecki realizó algunos estudios empíricos para alimentar su teoría. Dos de éstos trataban sobre la economía de los Estados Unidos, y en ellos adoptó un nuevo método de análisis. Sin embargo, su metodología no tuvo el impacto que merecía, incluso entre sus seguidores. Este artículo retoma el análisis de Kalecki con el fin de comprender la evolución reciente de la economía estadunidense.

The main objective of the paper is to assess the impact of fiscal variables on private investment comparing some Latin-American economies to other advanced ones. For such purposes, the authors carry out an econometric analysis for the period 1990-2008. They make use of two dynamic panel models in which they group countries with similar characteristics and development levels. In one of them, they include Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Uruguay; whereas in the second one the countries accounted for are the U.S., Canada, Spain, Korea, Ireland and Japan. They specify in both models an investment function using as arguments a wide range of variables, including those related with fiscal policy. From their results the authors infer that governments can, with higher spending, boost up the economy even when they finance spending with higher taxes. In Latin America, where income concentration is enormous, a proposal to boost up the economy through higher government expenditure financed with a progressive income tax, is even more justified.

Kalecki made important contributions to development economics, which rank him among the founding fathers of this area of our discipline. The objective of this paper is to give an account of his contributions, and in particular of his conception of the peculiarities and the way of functioning of the underdeveloped economies, and of the barriers that limits their capacity for high and sustained long run growth. As most socialist economists of his time, he was skeptic about the possibilities of overcoming underdevelopment under capitalism. However, in contradistinction to other pioneers of development economics, Kalecki did not stress the international forces that hamper development, but put the accent rather in the internal institutions and social and political determinants. In particular, the feudal and semi-feudal conditions in agriculture, the reduced market ensuing from income concentration and widespread monopolization of the economy, and the lack of willingness of entrepreneurs to carry out the necessary investments. Accordingly, his economic policy recommendations emphasized also the domestic aspects involved.

The aim of this paper is to identify the factors shaping the behavior of money wages in both the manufacturing sector and the maquila industry in Mexico. We study this issue with modern econometric techniques, stressing the use of multivariate econometric models congruent from statistical and theoretical viewpoints. We also introduce a new unit root test to check for the existence of unit roots in the context of a heterogeneous autoregressive process. Our empirical findings show that money wages are jointly determined in both industries, in the sense that they depend on each other; and that a similar set of conditioning variables controls their dynamics. We found that money wages in both sectors depend on the other sector's wage, on underemployment, and on the specific conditions of the sector, the latter summarized by output growth in the manufacturing sector and by productivity growth in the maquila industry.

El objetivo de este artículo es identificarlos factores que determinan el comportamiento de los salarios monetarios en el sector manufacturero y en la industria maquiladora en México. Para ello, hacemos uso de técnicas econométricas modernas con énfasis en la especificación de modelos multivariados congruentes desde un punto de vista teórico y econométrico. Adicionalmente se introduce una prueba de raíces unitarias relativamente nueva que permite determinar la existencia de una raíz unitaria en el contexto de un proceso autorregresivo heterogéneo. Nuestros resultados empíricos muestran que la determinación de los salarios en ambos sectores está fuertemente asociada, en el sentido que los salarios en un sector dependen de los salarios en el otro sector, y que un conjunto similar de variables determina su comportamiento. Específicamente, encontramos que el comportamiento de los salarios monetarios depende del desempleo y de las circunstancias económicas de cada sector, estas últimas sintetizadas por el crecimiento del producto en la manufactura y por la productividad en el sector maquilador.

Recent Mexican and Chinese manufacturing exports to North American market are discussed. Its evolution contrasts with other developing economies exports that together constitute the majority of total exports, even of manufactures, generated by developing world. The increased share of almost all countries in the sample is explained mainly by their gains in competitiveness.

El desempeño reciente de México y China como exportadores de manufacturas al mercado de América del Norte es el objeto de análisis de este artículo. Su evolución se contrasta con la correspondiente a otras economías en desarrollo que de manera conjunta aportan la mayor parte de las exportaciones totales, incluso las manufactureras, que actualmente genera el mundo en desarrollo. El aumento de la participación de casi todos los países de la muestra en aquel mercado se explica principalmente por las ganancias de competitividad.

RESUMO O principal objetivo deste artigo é analisar as opções de política econômica para promover o crescimento econômico e a absorção do desemprego no curto prazo em economias semi-industrializadas abertas. Levamos em conta a existência de capacidade ociosa e postulamos que pelo menos parte dessa capacidade poderia ser utilizada no curto prazo, estimulando o crescimento do produto, mesmo com a manutenção do equilíbrio na balança comercial. Enfatizamos a necessidade de combinar competitividade da bolsa real com estabilidade de preços e uma distribuição justa de renda. Assim, propomos contrabalançar os efeitos negativos de um aumento da taxa de câmbio no poder de compra dos trabalhadores, com compensação alcançada por meio de subsídios diretos ou redução do imposto sobre o valor agregado para bens básicos. Com dois exercícios econométricos realizados para o Brasil e para o México, analisamos empiricamente a hipótese básica deste trabalho.

ABSTRACT The main objective of this paper is to analyze economic policy options to foster economic growth and the absorption of unemployment in the short run in open semi-industrialized economies. We take into account the existence of idle capacity, and we postulate that at least part of these capacities could be put to use in the short run, stimulating output growth even as equilibrium in the trade balance is maintained. We emphasize the necessity to combine competitiveness of the real exchange with price stability and with a fair distribution of income. We thus propose to counterbalance the negative effects of an increase in the exchange rate on workers’ purchasing power, with compensation achieved either through direct subsidies or reduction in the Value Added Tax for basic goods. With two econometric exercises carried out for Brazil and Mexico we empirically analyze the basic hypothesis of this paper.