ABSTRACT The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is a widely used probability-based method that categorizes drought and wet events based on their expected frequency of occurrence. Regional frequency analysis based on L-moments (RFA-Lmom) is often employed to enhance probabilistic assessments of extreme hydrological data, which typically assume positive values. This study investigated whether applying the RFA-Lmom regionalization technique to the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P-PE), the input variable for SPEI, can improve the index’s ability to meet the normality assumption. We conducted analyses using Monte Carlo experiments, accounting for distinct climate conditions worldwide, and a case study in the watershed of the Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí rivers, situated in the states of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, Brazil. In this region, P-PE frequency distributions may exhibit negative and positive sample means. Our findings suggested that modifying the RFA-Lmom method by replacing the L-moment ratio L-CV with the L-moment scale measure and using an additive model (instead of the original multiplicative procedure) for SPEI calculation allows the application of this regionalization technique to P-PE amounts. This adapted RFA-Lmom consistently enhanced the ability of SPEI frequency distributions to meet their normality assumption, thereby improving the quality of drought assessments based on this standardized index. precipitationevapotranspiration (SPEI probabilitybased probability occurrence Lmoments L moments RFALmom RFA Lmom (RFA-Lmom data values PPE, PPE P PE , (P-PE) indexs s assumption experiments worldwide Piracicaba rivers Gerais Brazil region means Lmoment moment LCV CV instead procedure amounts (P-PE

ABSTRACT Irrigated areas have expanded globally to support the increasing population and mitigate the impacts of climate change and variability. The crop water balance accounting in the root zone estimates soil water deficits by considering water inputs and outputs that impact crop yield. In this study, we developed the CropWaterBalance R-package to assist users in irrigation scheduling. The package offers functionalities for estimating the reference evapotranspiration through various methods and comparing their performances. By incorporating user-provided management-allowed depletions, the package calculates several agrometeorological parameters including crop evapotranspiration rates, soil water deficit in the root zone, and water stress coefficient. The package also provides recommendations for irrigation timing and net irrigation depth. variability yield study Rpackage R scheduling performances userprovided user provided managementallowed management allowed depletions rates coefficient depth

ABSTRACT The standardized precipitation (SPI) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration (SPEI) indices are important tools for monitoring drought events, but the low density of weather station networks limits their use in many regions. To address this issue, we developed the PowerSDI R-package, which calculates these two indices using gridded-data from the NASA-POWER project (NASA-SPI and NASA-SPEI). Different from other packages, the PowerSDI package has two modes: the scientific, and the operational. In the scientific mode, the users may assess the quality of the indices estimates through their agreement with a reference/observed series and through the evaluation of how well these estimates meet the conceptual assumptions required for calculating both SPI and SPEI. This evaluation is based on measure of accuracy (e.g., Willmott index of agreement), goodness-of-fit tests (e.g., Anderson-Darling), and normality tests (e.g., Shapiro-Wilk’s test), which are calculated by the ScientSDI.R, Reference.R, and Accuracy.R functions. In the operational mode, users can calculate both indices routinely using the OperatSDI.R function. The package also uses a quasi-weekly time scale, allowing for index calculations four times a month. The OperatSDI.R enables users to download NASA-POWER data for all available period or only for the quasi-week they intend to monitor (reducing the function’s running time). In short, the PowerSDI facilitates the routine use of these two widely used drought indices and, unlike others existing software, it provides a solid scientific basis for using NASA-POWER data in drought monitoring systems, which can help improve drought preparedness and response efforts worldwide. The package is freely available at two repositories: Github (https://github.com/gabrielblain/PowerSDI), and CRAN (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=PowerSDI). (SPI precipitationevapotranspiration evapotranspiration SPEI (SPEI events regions issue Rpackage, Rpackage R package, R-package griddeddata gridded NASAPOWER NASA POWER NASASPI NASASPEI. NASASPEI . NASA-SPEI) packages modes mode referenceobserved reference observed e.g., eg e g (e.g. agreement, , agreement) goodnessoffit goodness fit AndersonDarling, AndersonDarling Anderson Darling Anderson-Darling) ShapiroWilks Shapiro Wilk s test, test test) ScientSDIR ScientSDI ScientSDI.R ReferenceR Reference Reference.R AccuracyR Accuracy functions OperatSDIR OperatSDI function quasiweekly quasi weekly scale month quasiweek week reducing time. time) short software systems worldwide repositories https//github.com/gabrielblain/PowerSDI, httpsgithubcomgabrielblainPowerSDI https //github.com/gabrielblain/PowerSDI github com gabrielblain (https://github.com/gabrielblain/PowerSDI) https//CRAN.Rproject.org/package=PowerSDI. httpsCRANRprojectorgpackagePowerSDI //CRAN.R project.org/package=PowerSDI org (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=PowerSDI) NASA-SPEI e.g. (e.g Anderson-Darling https//github.com/gabrielblain/PowerSDI githubcomgabrielblainPowerSDI (https://github.com/gabrielblain/PowerSDI Rproject https//CRAN.Rproject.org/package=PowerSDI CRANR projectorgpackagePowerSDI (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=PowerSDI e.g

Abstract Traditional peach production regions provide adequate chill for satisfactorily bud’s flower break dormancy, in cultivars there developed. However, considering the expansion of the orchards in mild winter areas and the expected global trends to warmer conditions, the local development of cultivars became relevant. Based on this background, this study proposed to evaluate the performance of 33 peach and nectarine cultivars and selections in mild winter climate. Features associated to the vegetative development, phenology, productivity and fruit characteristics were measured in nine seasons, and the data analyzed by multivariate analysis of variance. Significant correlations between features were remarked. The Pillai and F tests presented significant results, highlighting significant differences among cultivars for almost all features. Peach and nectarine genotypes showed genetic diversity that may be accessed for use as cultivars, or parental for crosses. ‘IAC Aurora 1’, ‘IAC Aurora 2’, ‘IAC Centenário’, ‘IAC Douradão’, ‘IAC Jóia4’, ‘IAC Ouromel 3’, ‘IAC Régis’, ‘Diamante’, ‘Eldorado’, ‘FlordaPrince’, ‘Premier’ and ‘Tropic Beauty’ were the cultivars with the best results. A large number of selections showed promising results, emphasizing, the ‘IAC 680-177’, ‘IAC 1085-27’, ‘IAC 785-9’, ‘IAC 2982-31’, ‘IAC 4682-45’and ‘IAC 6882-84’. buds bud s dormancy developed However conditions relevant background 3 climate phenology seasons variance remarked results crosses IAC 1, 1 , 1’ 2, 2 2’ Centenário, Centenário Centenário’ Douradão, Douradão Douradão’ Jóia4, Jóia4 Jóia Jóia4’ 3, 3’ Régis, Régis Régis’ ‘Diamante, Diamante ‘Diamante ‘Diamante’ ‘Eldorado, Eldorado ‘Eldorado ‘Eldorado’ ‘FlordaPrince, FlordaPrince ‘FlordaPrince ‘FlordaPrince’ ‘Premier Premier Tropic Beauty emphasizing 680177, 680177 680 177 680-177’ 108527, 108527 1085 27 1085-27’ 7859, 7859 785 9 785-9’ 298231, 298231 2982 31 2982-31’ 468245and 4682 45 688284. 688284 6882 84 . 6882-84’ 68017 68 17 680-177 10852 108 1085-27 78 785-9 29823 298 2982-31 468 4 68828 688 8 6882-84 6801 6 680-17 10 1085-2 7 785- 29 2982-3 46 6882-8 680-1 1085- 2982- 6882- 680-

Resumo As regiões tradicionais de produção de pêssego apresentam frio adequado para a quebra de dormência das gemas de forma satisfatória, nas cultivares localmente desenvolvidas. No entanto, considerando a expansão dos pomares em áreas peachde inverno ameno e as tendências globais esperadas para condições mais quentes, o desenvolvimento local de cultivares tornou-se relevante. Com base nisso, este estudo propôs-se a avaliar o desempenho de 33 cultivares e seleções de pessegueiro e nectarineiraem clima de inverno ameno. Características associadas ao desenvolvimento vegetativo,fenologia, produtividade e características dos frutos foram medidas em nove safras; e os dados, analisados por análise de variância multivariada. Foram observadas correlaçõessignificativas entre as características. Os testes de Pillai e F apresentaram resultadossignificativos, destacando a presença de diferenças entre cultivares para quase todas as características.Os genótipos de pessegueiro e de nectarineira apresentaram diversidade genética que pode ser acessada para uso como cultivares, ou parentais para cruzamentos. As cultivares ‘IACAurora 1’, ‘IAC Aurora 2’, ‘IAC Centenário’, ‘IAC Douradão’, ‘IAC Jóia4’, ‘IACOuromel 3’, ‘IAC Régis’,‘Diamante’, ‘Eldorado’, ‘FlordaPrince’, ‘Premier’ e ‘Tropic Beauty’apresentaram os melhores resultados. Um grande número de seleções apresentou resultados promissores, destacando-`se ‘IAC 680-177’, ‘IAC 1085-27’, ‘IAC 785-9’, ‘IAC 2982-31’, ‘IAC 4682-45’ e‘IAC 6882-84’. satisfatória desenvolvidas entanto quentes tornouse tornou se relevante nisso propôsse propôs 3 vegetativofenologia vegetativo fenologia vegetativo,fenologia safras dados multivariada resultadossignificativos característicasOs cruzamentos IACAurora 1, 1 , 1’ IAC 2, 2 2’ Centenário, Centenário Centenário’ Douradão, Douradão Douradão’ Jóia4, Jóia4 Jóia Jóia4’ IACOuromel 3, 3’ Régis,‘Diamante, RégisDiamante Régis ,‘Diamante Diamante Régis’,‘Diamante’ ‘Eldorado, Eldorado ‘Eldorado ‘Eldorado’ ‘FlordaPrince, FlordaPrince ‘FlordaPrince ‘FlordaPrince’ ‘Premier Premier Tropic Beautyapresentaram Beauty promissores destacando`se destacandose `se 680177, 680177 680 177 680-177’ 108527, 108527 1085 27 1085-27’ 7859, 7859 785 9 785-9’ 298231, 298231 2982 31 2982-31’ 468245 4682 45 4682-45 eIAC 688284. 688284 6882 84 . 6882-84’ Régis,‘Diamante Régis’,‘Diamante 68017 68 17 680-177 10852 108 1085-27 78 785-9 29823 298 2982-31 46824 468 4 4682-4 68828 688 8 6882-84 6801 6 680-17 10 1085-2 7 785- 29 2982-3 46 4682- 6882-8 680-1 1085- 2982- 6882- 680-

ABSTRACT The frequency of extreme weather events has increased in almost all regions of the world. In this context, it is vital to understand how the location, scale, and shape of their frequency distributions are changing over time. This study used the flexibility of neural networks to model changes in the probability of daily extremes of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature data in Campinas, Brazil — one of South America’s longest meteorological records spanning from 1890 to 2022. Based on the Extremal Types Theorem, we employed a conditional density network to model the parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV-CDN) as functions of time. Our findings indicate that a GEV-based model, where the location and scale parameters vary over time, best described the variations in the Tmin series. However, a GEV-based model with only the location parameter varying over time best described the variations in the Tmax series. From an agrometeorological perspective, these results suggest that the probability of Tmax values leading to crop failures is rapidly increasing. The findings indicate a decrease in the probability of agronomic frost events in Campinas over the past 133 years, but the rate of this decrease has slowed in recent years. This result, combined with the negative value of the GEV’s shape parameter, suggests that it is unlikely that Campinas may become an agronomic-frost-free region. To facilitate visualization of the changes in the probability of Tmax and Tmin values from 1890 to 2022, we have developed an internet application available at https://climatology-iac.shinyapps.io/Shinny/. world context (Tmax (Tmin Americas America s 189 2022 Theorem GEVCDN GEV CDN (GEV-CDN GEVbased based series However perspective increasing 13 years result GEVs agronomicfrostfree free region https//climatologyiac.shinyapps.io/Shinny/. httpsclimatologyiacshinyappsioShinny https //climatology iac.shinyapps.io/Shinny/. climatology iac shinyapps io Shinny https://climatology-iac.shinyapps.io/Shinny/ 18 202 1 climatologyiac https//climatologyiac.shinyapps.io/Shinny/ iacshinyappsioShinny iac.shinyapps.io/Shinny/ https://climatology-iac.shinyapps.io/Shinny 20 https//climatologyiac.shinyapps.io/Shinny iac.shinyapps.io/Shinny 2

Abstract The pedigree analysis from genealogical data can estimate the inbreeding from identity-by-descent, being a powerful tool for germplasm characterization. The aim of this study was to evaluate the genetic diversity of peach and nectarine cultivars from the Agronomic Institute Prunus germplasm. This assessment was based on inbreeding and coancestry coefficients, considering two cases according to the origin of pollen donor in open pollinations: case I as self-pollinated, and case II as outcrossing. This study provided information regarding the founder cultivars. The historical investigation of the genealogy of 84 cultivars returned up to eight generations. Thirty-one founder cultivars were identified. The inbreeding coefficient of 40 (case I) and 14 (case II) for the cultivars were higher than expected, evidencing some degree of inbreeding. However, the averages for the coancestry coefficients were low (case I: 0.144; case II: 0.087), indicating genetic variability among the cultivars, which may be used in breeding programs. identitybydescent, identitybydescent identity by descent, descent identity-by-descent characterization pollinations selfpollinated, selfpollinated self pollinated, pollinated self-pollinated outcrossing 8 generations Thirtyone Thirty one identified 4 1 expected However 0.144 0144 0 144 0.087, 0087 0.087 , 087 0.087) programs 0.14 014 008 0.08 08 0.1 01 00 0.0 0.

Resumo Este estudo objetivou avaliar o uso dos dados provenientes do Climatic Research Unit (CRU) e do 5th Generation of European ReAnalysis (ERA5) para o monitoramento da seca no estado de São Paulo por meio do índice de Precipitação Padronizado (SPI) e do índice de Precipitação e Evapotranspiração Padronizado (SPEI). Foram utilizados dados de precipitação mensal (P) para o cálculo do SPI e de temperatura do ar para estimar a evapotranspiração potencial (ETp) para o SPEI nas escalas de 1, 6 e 12 meses. Utilizou-se análises de ajuste paramétricos e concordância para avaliação e comparação com dados de estações de superfície. Os resultados indicam que os dados do CRU (P e ETp) apresentam baixa correlação com os dados das estações. Os dados do SPI e SPEI obtidos por meio do CRU e ERA5 apresentaram correlação ligeiramente maior no inverno na escala de tempo mensal. Um estudo de caso da crise hídrica de 2014 mostrou que os índices calculados a partir dos dados da CRU subestimaram o episódio da seca. Por outro lado, os índices calculados a partir dos dados ERA5 superestimaram a seca. Dessa forma, conclui-se que os dados de reanálise não podem ser utilizados diretamente para o monitoramento da seca.

Abstract The aim of this study was to evaluate the suitability of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and the 5th Generation of European ReAnalysis (ERA5) for calculating both SPI and SPEI and, hence, for drought monitoring in the state of São Paulo. Monthly precipitation (P) and air temperature data were used to calculate the SPI and the SPEI at time scales of 1, 6 and 12 months. Goodness-of-fit tests and indices of agreement were used in this study. It was observed low agreement between data provided by the CRU (P and P- ETP) and data from the surface stations. However, the SPI and SPEI estimates presented a slightly higher agreement, especially in the winter months at the monthly time scale. Equivalent results were found for the ERA5 data. A case study on the water crisis of 2014 showed that the drought indices calculated from the CRU data underestimated the drought episode. On the other hand, the indices calculated from ERA5 data overestimated the drought. Therefore, we concluded that the reanalysis data cannot be directly used for drought monitoring in the state of São Paulo.

ABSTRACT The improvement of probabilistic assessments of extreme air temperature events is a major goal for agrometeorological studies. The regional frequency analysis based on L-moments (RFA-Lmom) has been successfully used to improve the study of hydrometeorological variables such as extreme rainfall events. This study investigated the hypothesis that the RFA-Lmom can be applied to extreme maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature data. The RFA-Lmon was calculated considering its original algorithm (multiplicative approach) and a new procedure referred as to additive approach. The suitability of both approaches was evaluated through Monte Carlo experiments, which simulated homogeneous and heterogeneous groups of Tmin and Tmax series, and through a case study based on weather stations situated in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The results found in this study indicated that the RFA-Lmom can be applied to Tmax and Tmin data in tropical/subtropical regions such as the state of São Paulo. In addition, the additive approach consistently outperformed the multiplicative approach. Both discordance and heterogeneous measures presented their best performances when calculated under this new approach. The original goodness-of-fit measure may also be replaced by its bivariate extension when the group is formed by more than 15 series.

Abstract Macadamia is a nut tree native to Australian rainforest. Due to the small wild populations and the economic interest, studies assessing genetic information are fundamental for use and conservation of this species. Therefore, the present study aimed to assess the structure and genetic diversity of 28 cultivars of macadamia originated from United States, Australia and Brazil, introduced or developed by the Agronomic Institute’s breeding program, using 29 new microsatellite loci. The microsatellite loci showed high genetic diversity (3.65 alleles per locus on average). Our results also suggested the existence of no genetic structure between cultivars, regardless of their geographic origin. The modified Rogers’ distances between cultivars ranged from 0.227 to 0.671. Despite the lack of information about genealogy, the cultivars from this Brazilian germplasm showed moderate genetic diversity, so they can be used as parents in future crosses.

RESUMEN Los árboles de macadamia requieren un largo período para empezar la floración cuando se propagan por semillas. Para anticipar el rendimiento, mantener las características del cultivar y aumentar la homogeneidad de la calidad de las nueces, es esencial establecer huertos con árboles injertados. Aunque se han realizado ensayos de propagación de esta planta por estacas semileñosas en Brasil, ningún método ha demostrado ser el apropiado a gran escala debido a las dificultades en la implementación de las técnicas o al alto costo. El establecimiento de un protocolo eficiente y accesible puede proporcionar una gran mejora a esta cadena productiva ya que satisfará la demanda de viveros y estimulará la expansión de los huertos. El objetivo de este estudio fue desarrollar un protocolo para la propagación de macadamia por estacas semileñosas. Seis cultivares (HAES 344, HAES 816, HAES 660, IAC 4-12B, IAC 9-20, e IAC 4-20) fueron evaluados y seleccionados por su amplio cultivo en Brasil. El material de propagación se recolectó durante cuatro meses (octubre y noviembre de 2018 y febrero y marzo de 2019). Las estacas semileñosas se sumergieron en ácido indolbutírico (AIB) en tres concentraciones diferentes (0, 5, o 10 g L-1), y en el producto comercial Clonex®. El experimento se realizó siguiendo un diseño bidireccional con cuatro repeticiones y los datos fueron analizados por el software R. El cultivar IAC 4-12B mostró el índice más alto para el desarrollo de las raíces (37.0%). Los tratamientos no mostraron diferencias significativas entre las dosis de AIB y Clonex® para el desarrollo de las raíces (AIB 10 g L-1 - 31.5%, Clonex® - 29.4%, AIB 5 g L-1 -27.4%). Noviembre fue la mejor temporada de recolección para el enraizamiento de las estacas semileñosas (10.0%).

ABSTRACT Macadamia trees require a long period for flowering when propagated by seeds. To anticipate the yield, maintain cultivar characteristics, and increase the homogeneity of nut quality, it is essential to establish orchards with grafted trees. Although semi-hardwood cutting propagation tests have been performed in Brazil, no method has been shown to be appropriate at a large scale due to the difficulties in implementation of techniques or the high cost. Establishing an effective and affordable protocol may provide great improvement to this productive chain since it will meet the demand of nurseries and stimulate the expansion of orchards. The aim of this study was to develop a protocol for macadamia semi-hardwood cutting propagation. Six cultivars (HAES 344, HAES 816, HAES 660, IAC 4-12B, IAC 9-20, and IAC 4-20) were evaluated and selected because of their ample cultivation in Brazil. The propagation material was collected for four months (October and November 2018, and February and March 2019). The semi-hardwood cuttings were also soaked in indole butyric acid (IBA) at three different concentrations (0, 5, or 10 g L-1) and in the commercial product Clonex®. The experiment was arranged in a two-way completely randomized design with four replicates and data were analyzed by R software. The cultivar IAC 4-12B showed the highest index for root development (37.0%). The treatments did not show significant differences between IBA doses and Clonex® for root development (IBA 10 g L-1 - 31.5%, Clonex® - 29.4%, and IBA 5 g L-1 - 27.4%). November was the best cutting season for root development of semi-hardwood cuttings (10.0%).

Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o efeito de 19 porta-enxertos clonais sobre o crescimento vegetativo e os teores de nutrientes nas folhas dos pessegueiros (Prunus persica) 'BRS Kampai' e 'BRS Rubimel'. No período de 2014 a 2018, foram realizados dois ensaios em campo, nos municípios de Jarinu e Jundiaí, no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Foram avaliadas as cultivares BRS Kampai e BRS Rubimel enxertadas em 19 porta-enxertos clonais, além de suas copas autoenraizadas, em Jarinu e Jundiaí, respectivamente. Em Jarinu, os porta-enxertos Barrier, Cadaman, 'Capdeboscq', Flordaguard, GxN9, I-67-52-4, 'Okinawa', México Fila-1, Nemared, Tsukuba-2 e Tsukuba-3, além da copa autoenraizada, apresentaram melhor desempenho para crescimento vegetativo e teores de nutrientes nas folhas. Em Jundiaí, todos os genótipos, exceto Marianna 2624 e Mirabolano 29C, não apresentaram diferenças estatísticas quanto ao crescimento vegetativo. O desempenho de 'BRS Kampai' e 'BRS Rubimel' autoenraizadas é similar ao dos porta-enxertos tradicionais, como 'Okinawa'. Assim, as cultivares-copa avaliadas podem ser consideradas alternativa interessante para locais com condições bióticas e abióticas de solo adequadas.

Abstract: The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of 19 clonal rootstocks on the vegetative growth and foliar nutrient contents of the 'BRS Kampai' and 'BRS Rubimel' peach (Prunus persica) trees. In the period of 2014 to 2018, two field trials were carried out in the municipalities of Jarinu and Jundiaí, in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The BRS Kampai and BRS Rubimel cultivars, budded on 19 clonal rootstocks, besides their own-rooted scions, were evaluated in Jarinu and Jundiaí, respectively. In Jarinu, the Barrier, Cadaman, 'Capdeboscq', Flordaguard, GxN9, I-67-52-4, 'Okinawa', México Fila-1, Nemared, Tsukuba-2, and Tsukuba-3 rootstocks, as well as the own-rooted scion, showed the best performance for vegetative growth and foliar nutrient contents. In Jundiaí, all genotypes, except Marianna 2624 and Mirabolano 29C, did not show any statistical difference regarding vegetative growth. The performance of own-rooted 'BRS Kampai' and 'BRS Rubimel' is similar to that of traditional rootstocks, such as 'Okinawa'. Therefore, the evaluated scion cultivars may be an interesting alternative for sites with suitable biotic and abiotic soil conditions.

ABSTRACT The selection of an appropriate nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is frequently based on methods, such as Akaike information criterion (AIC), second-order Akaike information criterion (AICc), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and likelihood ratio test (LRT). Since these methods compare all GEV-models considered within a selection process, the hypothesis that the number of candidate GEV-models considered in such process affects its own outcomehas been proposed. Thus, this study evaluated the performance of these four selection criteria as function of sample sizes, GEV-shape parameters and different numbers candidate GEV-models. Synthetic series generated from Monte Carlo experiments and annual maximum daily rainfall amounts generated by the climate model MIROC5 (2006-2099; State of São Paulo-Brazil) were subjected to three distinct fitting processes, which considered different numbers of increasingly complex GEV-models. The AIC, AICc, BIC and LRT were used to select “the most appropriate” model for each series within each fitting process.BIC outperformed all other criteria when the synthetic series were generated from stationary GEV-models or from GEV-models allowing changes only in the location parameter (linear or quadratic). However, this latter method performed poorly when the variance of the series varied over time. In such cases, AIC and AICc should be preferred over BIC and LRT. The performance of all selection criteria varied with the different number of GEV-models considered in each fitting processes. In general, the higher the number of GEV-models considered within aselection process, the worse the performance of the selection criteria. In conclusion, the number of GEV-models to be used within a selection process should be set with parsimony.

ABSTRACT A key step for any modeling study is to compare model-produced estimates with observed/reliable data. The original index of agreement (also known as original Willmott index) has been widely used to measure how well model-produced estimates simulate observed data. However, in its original version such index may lead the user to erroneously select a predicting model. Therefore, this study compared the sensibility of the original index of agreement with its two newer versions (modified and refined) and provided an easy-to-use R-code capable of calculating these three indices. First, the sensibility of the indices was evaluated through Monte Carlo Experiments. These controlled simulations considered different sorts of errors (systematic, random and systematic + random) and errors magnitude. By using the R-code, we also carried out a case of study in which the indices are expected to indicate that th empirical Thornthwaite’s model produces poor estimates of daily reference evapotranspiration in respect to the standard method Penman-Monteith (FAO56). Our findings indicate that the original index of agreement may indeed erroneously select a predicting model performing poorly. Our results also indicate that the newer versions of this index overcome such problem, producing more rigorous evaluations. Although the refined Willmott index presents the broadest range of possible values, it does not inform the user if a predicting model overestimate or underestimate the simulated data, resulting in no extra information regarding those already provided by the modified version. None of the indices represents the error as linear functions of its magnitude in respect to the observed process.

ABSTRACT The intensification of drought incidence is one of the most important threats of the 21st century with significant effects on food security. Accordingly, there is a need to improve the understanding of the regional impacts of climate change on this hazard. This study assessed long-term trends in probability-based drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Evapotranspiration Index) in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Owing to the multi-scalar nature of both indices, the analyses were performed at 1 to 12-month time scales. The indices were calculated by means of a relativist approach that allowed us to compare drought conditions from different periods. The years 1961-1990 were used as the referential period. To the authors’ best knowledge, this is the first time that such relativist approach is used in historical trend analysis. The results suggest that the evapotranspiration rates have intensified the regional drought conditions. The time scale used to calculate the indices significantly affected the outcomes of drought trend assessments. The reason behind this feature is that the significant changes in the monthly regional patterns are limited to a specific period of the year. More specifically, virtually all significant changes have been observed during the first trimester of the rainy season (October, November and December). Considering that this period corresponds to critical plant growth stages (flowering/regrowth/sprouting) of several major crops (e.g. Sugarcane and Citrus), we may conclude that these significant changes have increased the risk of crop yield reductions due to agricultural drought.

ABSTRACT Plant variables and must physicochemical properties were evaluated for the grapevine ‘Syrah’ cultivated in sequential growing seasons (summer and winter) from 2011 to 2015. The vines were trellised in vertical shoot position, grafted on Paulsen 1103, with approximate density of 5,800 plants∙ha−1. They were grown under plastic overhead cover. The experimental design was completely randomized, and the following variables were measured at the harvest: number of branches, number of clusters, cluster weight and yield, soluble solids content, pH, and titratable acidity. The highest values of yield, cluster weight, and titratable acidity were observed during the summer growing season, while the highest values of soluble solids content and pH were observed during winter. These results suggest that the grapes harvested during the winter show physicochemical characteristics more suitable than those observed during the summer crops for winemaking purposes.