ABSTRACT Brazil is a benchmark in sugarcane production, with the state of São Paulo standing out as the largest Brazilian producer. However, for sugarcane suppliers and mills to sustain this activity, there is a need to improve productivity per hectare and reduce production costs. In this regard, this study aimed to propose fuzzy systems to estimate sugarcane productivity based on planted area (Area) and total cost of soil tillage (TCST) for raw material suppliers and mills. To this end, two fuzzy inference systems were constructed for the output variable (productivity) from two input variables (Area and TCST), considering five membership functions (very low, low, medium, high, and very high). Additionally, a survey on 42 sugarcane suppliers and 31 mills in the state of São Paulo was used for model construction. The results showed that the relationship between Area and TCST reflects on the productivity of sugarcane suppliers and mills in distinct ways. For suppliers, an increase in productivity is observed when there is an almost negative relationship between both input variables. For mills, productivity rises when these variables fluctuate in the same direction. Therefore, the proposed method is viable and provides relevant information for conjecturing survival strategies for agents in the sugarcane energy sector.

ABSTRACT Yield and profitability levels in sugarcane crops demonstrate the importance of the agricultural practices adopted, especially for soil preparation and planting systems. This study evaluated the costs involved in 40 alternative methods for the establishment of sugarcane crops resulting from the combination of eight soil preparation systems and five planting options, followed by an assessment of the economic viability of sugarcane production for suppliers and sugar mills. Data were collected from 31 sugar mills and 42 suppliers in São Paulo State, Brazil, from the 2016/17 season. The cost analysis and discounted cash flow analysis were used to calculate economic viability. Localized soil preparation with a fixed application rate of inputs (soil amendments) and mechanized planting with a variable application rate of fertilizers were the least costly systems to establish the sugarcane crop. Regarding the sugarcane establishment system, the medium–sized sugar mills were the most economically viable when compared to independent sugarcane producers. There was no significant difference in cost to establish sugarcane crops across the various sized groups of suppliers and we identified that costs rose as the size of the sugar mills increased.