ABSTRACT Background: Common bile duct (CBD) stones are known to complicate 10-15% of gallstone diseases. Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is the therapeutic modality of choice for bile duct clearance in CBD stones but may fail to achieve stone clearance. This prospective study was done to identify the predictors of failure of CBD clearance with ERCP. Objective: This prospective study was done to identify the predictors of failure of CBD clearance with ERCP. Methods: All consecutive patients with bile duct stones undergoing ERCP at a tertiary care center were prospectively included from October 2020 to October 2021. The study’s primary outcome was to identify and analyze factors that could predict the failure of complete CBD clearance. Results: A total of 120 patients (50.8% males, median age: 53.5 years) were included in the final analysis. Successful clearance of CBD stones during the index procedure was achieved in 70% of patients. At a cut-off stone diameter of >10.5 mm and CBD diameter of >12.5 mm, the AUC was 0.890 and 0.884, respectively, to predict failed clearance of CBD. On multivariate analysis, stone diameter ≥15 mm [odds ratio (OR) 16.97, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.629-176.785], location of stones in hepatic ducts (OR 7.74, 95%CI: 2.041-29.332), presence of stricture distal to stone (OR 6.99, 95%CI: 1.402-34.726) and impacted stone (OR 21.61, 95%CI: 1.84-253.058) were independent predictors of failed bile duct clearance. Conclusion: Stone size and location are independent predictors of failed bile duct clearance. The endoscopist should consider these factors while subjecting a patient to biliary ductal clearance to plan additional intervention. Background (CBD 1015% 1015 10 15% 15 10-15 diseases (ERCP Objective Methods 202 2021 studys s Results 12 50.8% 508 50 8 (50.8 males age 535 53 5 53. years analysis 70 cutoff cut off 105 >10. 125 >12. 0890 0 890 0.89 0884 884 0.884 respectively ≥1 odds OR 1697 16 97 16.97 95 CI (CI) 1.629176.785, 1629176785 1.629 176.785 , 1 629 176 785 1.629-176.785] 774 7 74 7.74 95%CI 95CI 2.04129.332, 204129332 2.041 29.332 2 041 29 332 2.041-29.332) 699 6 99 6.99 1.40234.726 140234726 1.402 34.726 402 34 726 1.402-34.726 2161 21 61 21.61 1.84253.058 184253058 1.84 253.058 84 253 058 1.84-253.058 Conclusion intervention 101 10-1 20 50.8 (50. >10 >12 089 89 0.8 088 88 0.88 ≥ 169 9 16.9 (CI 629176 1.629176.785 162917678 1629 1.62 176785 176.78 62 17 78 1.629-176.785 77 7.7 04129 2.04129.332 20412933 2041 2.04 29332 29.33 04 33 2.041-29.332 69 6.9 40234 1.40234.72 14023472 1402 1.40 34726 34.72 40 3 72 1.402-34.72 216 21.6 84253 1.84253.05 18425305 184 1.8 253058 253.05 25 05 1.84-253.05 10- 50. (50 >1 08 0. 16. 62917 1.629176.78 16291767 162 1.6 17678 176.7 1.629-176.78 7. 0412 2.04129.33 2041293 204 2.0 2933 29.3 2.041-29.33 6. 4023 1.40234.7 1402347 140 1.4 3472 34.7 4 1.402-34.7 21. 8425 1.84253.0 1842530 18 1. 25305 253.0 1.84-253.0 (5 > 6291 1.629176.7 1629176 1767 176. 1.629-176.7 2.04129.3 204129 2. 293 29. 2.041-29.3 1.40234. 140234 14 347 34. 1.402-34. 842 1.84253. 184253 2530 253. 1.84-253. ( 1.629176. 162917 1.629-176. 2.04129. 20412 2.041-29. 1.40234 14023 1.402-34 1.84253 18425 1.84-253 1.629176 16291 1.629-176 2.04129 2.041-29 1.4023 1.402-3 1.8425 1842 1.84-25 1.62917 1.629-17 2.0412 2.041-2 1.402- 1.842 1.84-2 1.6291 1.629-1 2.041- 1.84- 1.629-
RESUMO Contexto: Cálculos do ducto biliar comum (CDC) são conhecidos por complicar 10-15% das doenças de cálculos biliares. A colangiopancreatografia retrógrada endoscópica (CPRE) é a modalidade terapêutica de escolha para a limpeza do CDC, mas pode falhar na sua remoção. Objetivo: Este estudo prospectivo foi realizado para identificar os previsores de falha na limpeza do CDC com CPRE. Métodos: Pacientes consecutivos com cálculos no ducto biliar submetidos a CPRE em um centro de atendimento terciário foram incluídos prospectivamente de outubro de 2020 a outubro de 2021. O principal resultado do estudo foi identificar e analisar fatores que poderiam prever a falha na limpeza completa do CDC. Resultados: Um total de 120 pacientes (50,8% homens, idade média: 53,5 anos) foram incluídos na análise final. A limpeza bem-sucedida dos cálculos de CDC durante o procedimento inicial foi alcançada em 70% dos pacientes. Com um diâmetro de corte de cálculos >10,5 mm e de diâmetro de CDC de >12,5 mm, a AUC foi de 0,890 e 0,884, respectivamente, para prever a falha na limpeza do CDC. Na análise multivariada, diâmetro da cálculos ≥15 mm [razão de chances (OR) 16,97, intervalo de confiança de 95% (IC): 1,629-176,785], localização dos cálculos nos ductos hepáticos (OR 7,74, IC95%: 2,041-29,332), presença de estreitamento distal ao cálculo (OR 6,99, IC95%: 1,402-34,726) e cálculo impactado (OR 21,61, IC95%: 1,84-253,058) foram previsores independentes de falha na limpeza do ducto biliar. Conclusão: O tamanho e a localização dos cálculos são previsores independentes de falha na limpeza do ducto biliar. O endoscopista deve considerar esses fatores ao submeter um paciente à limpeza ductal biliar para planejar intervenção adicional. Contexto (CDC 1015% 1015 10 15% 15 10-15 biliares (CPRE remoção Objetivo Métodos 202 2021 Resultados 12 50,8% 508 50 8 (50,8 homens média 535 53 5 53, anos final bemsucedida bem sucedida 70 105 >10, 125 >12, 0890 0 890 0,89 0884 884 0,884 respectivamente multivariada ≥1 razão OR 1697 16 97 16,97 95 IC (IC) 1,629176,785, 1629176785 1,629 176,785 , 1 629 176 785 1,629-176,785] 774 7 74 7,74 IC95% IC95 2,04129,332, 204129332 2,041 29,332 2 041 29 332 2,041-29,332) 699 6 99 6,99 1,40234,726 140234726 1,402 34,726 402 34 726 1,402-34,726 2161 21 61 21,61 1,84253,058 184253058 1,84 253,058 84 253 058 1,84-253,058 Conclusão adicional 101 10-1 20 50,8 (50, >10 >12 089 89 0,8 088 88 0,88 ≥ 169 9 16,9 (IC 629176 1,629176,785 162917678 1629 1,62 176785 176,78 62 17 78 1,629-176,785 77 7,7 IC9 04129 2,04129,332 20412933 2041 2,04 29332 29,33 04 33 2,041-29,332 69 6,9 40234 1,40234,72 14023472 1402 1,40 34726 34,72 40 3 72 1,402-34,72 216 21,6 84253 1,84253,05 18425305 184 1,8 253058 253,05 25 05 1,84-253,05 10- 50, (50 >1 08 0, 16, 62917 1,629176,78 16291767 162 1,6 17678 176,7 1,629-176,78 7, 0412 2,04129,33 2041293 204 2,0 2933 29,3 2,041-29,33 6, 4023 1,40234,7 1402347 140 1,4 3472 34,7 4 1,402-34,7 21, 8425 1,84253,0 1842530 18 1, 25305 253,0 1,84-253,0 (5 > 6291 1,629176,7 1629176 1767 176, 1,629-176,7 2,04129,3 204129 2, 293 29, 2,041-29,3 1,40234, 140234 14 347 34, 1,402-34, 842 1,84253, 184253 2530 253, 1,84-253, ( 1,629176, 162917 1,629-176, 2,04129, 20412 2,041-29, 1,40234 14023 1,402-34 1,84253 18425 1,84-253 1,629176 16291 1,629-176 2,04129 2,041-29 1,4023 1,402-3 1,8425 1842 1,84-25 1,62917 1,629-17 2,0412 2,041-2 1,402- 1,842 1,84-2 1,6291 1,629-1 2,041- 1,84- 1,629-