ABSTRACT: Based on the data of China’s overseas arable land investment in 47 countries along the “Belt and Road”, the Tobit model is used to analyze the effects of cultural distance and friendship cities on the production rates of contracted arable land in China’s overseas arable land investment. This study provided theoretical basis and empirical support for promoting China’s agricultural “going abroad” and improving the production rates of contracted arable land in China’s overseas arable land investment. The results show that differences in cultural distance, power distance and the degree of uncertainty avoidance have significant positive effects on the production rates of contracted arable land in China’s overseas arable land investment, and differences in individualism have a significant negative effect on the production rates. Friendship city has a positive but insignificant effect on the production rates, meanwhile, it also weaken the positive impact of cultural distance on production rates of contracted arable land in China’s overseas arable land investment. The proportion of joint ventures with host country, the economic level and institutional environment of the host country will all have an impact on the production rates. Finally, recommendations are proposed to promote the production rates of contracted arable land, such as focusing on the positive role of cultural distance, establishing friendship cities, and investing host countries with high potential precisely. ABSTRACT Chinas China s 4 Belt Road, Road , Road” going abroad meanwhile Finally precisely

RESUMO: Com base nos dados do investimento da China em terras aráveis no exterior em 47 países ao longo do “Cinturão e Rota”, o modelo Tobit é utilizado para analisar os efeitos da distância cultural e das cidades amigas nas taxas de produção de terras aráveis contratadas no investimento da China em terras aráveis no exterior. Os resultados mostram que as diferenças na distância cultural, na distância de poder e no grau de prevenção de incertezas têm efeitos positivos significativos sobre as taxas de produção de terras aráveis contratadas no investimento em terras aráveis no exterior da China, e as diferenças no individualismo têm um efeito negativo significativo sobre as taxas de produção. As cidades amigas têm um efeito positivo, mas insignificante, sobre as taxas de produção, enquanto estas podem enfraquecer o impacto positivo da distância cultural sobre as taxas de produção de terras aráveis contratadas no investimento em terras aráveis no exterior da China. A proporção de investimento cooperativo entre a China e o país anfitrião, o nível econômico e o ambiente institucional do país anfitrião terão um impacto sobre as taxas de produção. Por fim, são propostas recomendações para promover as taxas de produção das terras aráveis contratadas, tais como a concentração no papel positivo da distância cultural, a criação de cidades da amizade e o investimento em países de acolhimento com elevado potencial. RESUMO 4 Cinturão Rota, Rota , Rota” insignificante fim potencial

Resumen Objetivo: cuantificar la incertidumbre asociada con la estimación del valor actual del ciclo económico. Metodología: se emplea el filtro de Baxter y King en una serie de tiempo ampliada con proyecciones, asumiendo caminata aleatoria, y se construyen intervalos de confianza para el ciclo de manera analítica y con bootstrap. Limitaciones: la calidad de los intervalos de confianza se deteriora en presencia de cambio estructural en la serie de tiempo. Originalidad: la originalidad subyace en proponer una metodología para determinar la fase actual del ciclo económico de manera conjunta con una cuantificación de la incertidumbre respecto a tal medición. Conclusión: para Costa Rica, el método propuesto conduce a estimaciones del ciclo económico menos sensibles a nuevos datos que lo obtenido con el filtro de Hodrick y Prescott, y simulaciones muestran que los intervalos de confianza propuestos proveen la confianza nominal especificada.

Abstract Objetive: To quantify the uncertainty associated to the estimation of the current value of the business cycle. Methodology: The Baxter and King filter is applied to an time series expanded with forecasts, assuming a random walk, and confidence intervals are build for the cyclical component both analytically and using bootstrap. Limitations: The quality of the confidence 1 intervals deteriorates when there is a structural break in the time series. Originality: The original contribution of this article is a proposed methodology to jointly determined the current phase of the business cycle and the uncertainty associated with such measurement. Conclusions: For Costa Rica, the proposed method provides estimations of the business cycle that are less sensitive to new data points than the Hodrick and Prescott filter, and simulations show that the proposed confidence intervals provide the specified nominal confidence.

Resumen Objetivo: este artículo estudia la relación entre la demanda turística y el crecimiento económico, el tipo de cambio real y la incertidumbre de política económica (EPU, por sus siglas en inglés) en Australia, China, Francia, Alemania, Italia, Japón, España, Estados Unidos y el Reino Unido. Metodología: se aplicaron pruebas de dependencia transversal, de raíz unitaria y de cointegración. El modelo de largo plazo se estimó con los siguientes métodos: PCSE, FGLS y FMOLS. Resultados: los resultados muestran una relación positiva entre el crecimiento económico y el tipo de cambio real respecto a la demanda turística. En el largo plazo, la relación de causalidad es de la incertidumbre, el tipo de cambio y el PIB al turismo. Se valida la hipótesis de retroalimentación. Limitaciones: la disponibilidad de datos. Originalidad: estudia la influencia conjunta del crecimiento económico y la EPU sobre la demanda de turismo en los países de los principales destinos mundiales de turismo internacional según los ingresos turísticos internacionales. Conclusiones: se sugiere que el turismo impulsará el crecimiento económico general, y de manera correspondiente la inversión en otros sectores de la economía también influirá en un aumento del turismo.

Abstract Objective: to study the relationship among tourism demand and economic growth, real exchange rate, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in Australia China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Methodology: cross-section dependence, unit root, and cointegration tests were applied. The long-term model was estimated according to the Panel-Corrected Standard Error (PCSE), Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS), and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS). Results: the results show a positive relationship between economic growth and the real exchange rate concerning tourism demand. In the long term, the causality relationship is from uncertainty, exchange rate, and GDP to tourism. The feedback hypothesis is validated. Limitations: availability of data. Originality: it studies the joint influence of economic growth and the EPU on demand for tourism in the countries of the world’s leading destinations for international tourism according to international tourist income. Conclusions: tourism will drive general economic growth and, correspondingly, investment in other sectors of the economy will also influence an increase in tourism.

Resumen El desarrollo de proyectos mineros en etapas de exploración y prefactibilidad conlleva desafíos relacionados a la heterogeneidad e incertidumbre geológica y de procesamiento debido a la variabilidad en sus atributos primarios y de respuesta. Por lo tanto, el objetivo de esta investigación radica en elaborar el modelo geometalúrgico del índice de trabajo de Bond. Para esto se desarrollaron modelos de regresión lineal en Jupyter Notebook considerando 790 muestras de resistencia a la compresión uniaxial de la roca (UCS), litologías, zonas minerales e índice de trabajo de Bond (BWi) en un depósito pórfido cuprífero. Los resultados indican relación directamente proporcional de tipo lineal entre el BWi y UCS, generando modelamientos con desempeños aceptables de R2 entre 0,76 a 0,90. Además, las litologías y zonas mineralizadas en el depósito estudiado son características relevantes relacionadas a la conminución. Finalmente, de acuerdo a la competencia de la roca, esta se clasifica como tipo media a dura, dura y muy dura en las zonas de óxidos, mixtos y sulfuros primarios respectivamente.

Abstract The development of mining projects in the exploration and pre-feasibility stages involves challenges related to geological and processing heterogeneity and uncertainty due to variability in their primary and response attributes. Therefore, the objective of this research is to develop the geometallurgical model of the Bond work index. For this purpose, linear regression models were developed in Jupyter Notebook considering 790 samples of uniaxial compressive strength of rock (UCS), lithologies, mineral zones and Bond work index (BWi) in a porphyry copper deposit. The results indicate a directly proportional linear relationship between BWi and UCS, generating modeling with acceptable R2 performances between 0,76 and 0,90. In addition, the lithologies and ore zones in the deposit studied are relevant characteristics related to comminution. Finally, according to rock competence, the rock is classified as medium to hard, hard and very hard in the oxide, mixed and primary sulfide zones, respectively.

Abstract Over the last few years, a context of poverty and uncertainty has been looming over the future of Brazil, bringing an increase in cost of living and unemployment along with it. In the face of this scenario, it is necessary to look for other opportunities for work and remuneration. As such, entrepreneurship appears as a possibility to generate an income source. Entrepreneurs do not always start businesses following conventional management theories, as they are subjects just looking for an opportunity to help them survive. This study looks for a possible characterization of the social innovator in a crossroads through the theories of three authors: Souza Neto, Sarasvathy and Carrieri, who focus on the entrepreneur performing social innovation, generating income for themselves and, most times, solving issues that have not been yet solved by the State in their territory. This study compares the aforementioned theories through an integrational literature review performed in 2022, with field observations of the researchers with entrepreneurs in peripheral areas as of 15 years ago. The objective is to characterize the social innovator in a crossroads in an attempt to extend the field of view to the small entrepreneur using gaps in the system, without systematic knowledge of management to perform their entrepreneurial activities.

Resumen Un contexto de pobreza e incertidumbre sobre el futuro azota a la población brasileña en los últimos años, trayendo consigo aumento del costo de vida y desempleo. En este escenario, es necesario buscar otras oportunidades de trabajo y remuneración. El emprendimiento por necesidad surge entonces como una opción posible para generar ingresos. Y estos emprendedores no siempre inician sus negocios de acuerdo con las teorías administrativas convencionales, ya que son individuos que buscan oportunidades de supervivencia. Este trabajo busca una posible caracterización del innovador social encrucijada, a través de la teoría de tres autores: Souza Neto, Sarasvathy y Carrieri, quien es el emprendedor que innova socialmente generando ingresos para sí mismo y la mayor parte del tiempo resolviendo problemas que aún no han sido resueltos por el Estado en sus territorios. Buscamos caracterizar al innovador social en la encrucijada en un intento de ampliar la mirada de este pequeño empresario que aprovecha los vacíos del sistema sin un conocimiento sistemático de la administración para llevar a cabo su forma de emprender.

Resumo Há um contexto de pobreza e incerteza perante o futuro no Brasil dos últimos anos, trazendo consigo o aumento do custo de vida e o desemprego. Nesse cenário faz-se necessária a busca por outras oportunidades de trabalho e remuneração. O empreendedorismo por necessidade surge, então, como uma opção possível para gerar renda. Estes empreendedores nem sempre começam os seus negócios de acordo com as teorias administrativas convencionais, pois são sujeitos que buscam oportunidades de sobrevivência. Este trabalho busca uma possível caracterização do inovador social de encruzilhada, através da teoria de três autores: Souza Neto, Sa-rasvathy e Carrieri, que focam no empreendedor que inova socialmente gerando renda para si e, na maior parte das vezes, resolvendo questões que ainda não foram resolvidas pelo Estado em seus territórios. Este trabalho compara estas teorias por meio de uma revisão integrativa de literatura realizada em 2022, com as observações de campo das pesquisadoras com empreendedores periféricos, há 15 anos. Buscamos caracterizar o inovador social de encruzilhada na tentativa de ampliar o olhar para esse pequeno empreendedor que utiliza as brechas do sistema sem um conhecimento sistemático de administração para realizar a sua forma de empreender.

RESUMEN En la actualidad las organizaciones deben hacer frente a numerosos riesgos, dada la multitud de actividades que se desarrollan diariamente en un entorno dinámico e incierto, por lo que se hace necesario perfeccionar los modelos de gestión en función de lograr mejoras en su desempeño organizacional. El objetivo de la propuesta que se presenta es una metodología para la gestión de riesgo basado en las normas ISO 31000 en una entidad de ciencia, tecnología e innovación. Se emplearon varios métodos y técnicas que permitieron transitar desde el análisis de los fundamentos teóricos y conceptuales que permitieron presentar la metodológica, emergiendo como un instrumento para coordinar y realizar las acciones necesarias para reducir vulnerabilidades para prevenir, mitigar, atender y recuperar efectos negativos.

ABSTRACT Currently, organizations must face numerous risks, given the multitude of activities that are carried out daily in a dynamic and uncertain environment, which makes it necessary to improve management models in order to achieve improvements in their organizational performance. The objective of the proposal presented is a risk management methodology based on ISO 31000 standards in a science, technology and innovation entity. Several methods and techniques were used that allowed to move from the analysis of the theoretical and conceptual foundations that allowed to present the methodology, emerging as an instrument to coordinate and carry out the necessary actions to reduce vulnerabilities to prevent, mitigate, attend and recover negative effects.

Abstract The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in laboratory medicine (LM) has led to a qualitative leap in the diagnosis of diseases that afflict humans. The development of robots for measurement, calculation and prediction has increased the reliability, validity and reproducibility of AI diagnostic tests, leading to an easy choice of such technology in the clinical laboratory. However, AI in LM entails several ethical reflections that need to be considered. The incipient technology under development, the presence of cognitive biases in algorithms and data, the uncertainty of robot performance, technological limitations, the threat to privacy, and the absence of a legal framework open ethical conflicts that lacerate human equity, safety, and autonomy. The technological imperative of AI in LM must not overcome responsibility, nor infringe on the dignity of the person.

Resumen El uso de la Inteligencia artificial (IA) en la Medicina de laboratorio (ML) ha provocado un salto cualitativo en el diagnóstico de enfermedades que aquejan al ser humano. El desarrollo de robots para la medición, cálculo y predicción ha aumentado la confiabilidad, validez y reproducibilidad de las pruebas diagnósticas con IA, induciendo a una fácil elección de dicha tecnología en el laboratorio clínico. Sin embargo, la IA en la ML entraña una serie de reflexiones éticas que deben considerarse. La incipiente tecnología en desarrollo, la presencia de sesgos cognitivos en los algoritmos y datos, la incertidumbre del funcionamiento del robot, las limitaciones tecnológicas, la amenaza a la privacidad y la ausencia de un marco legal abren conflictos éticos que laceran la equidad, la seguridad y la autonomía del hombre. El imperativo tecnológico de la IA en la ML no debe superar la responsabilidad, ni atentar contra la dignidad de la persona.

RESUMEN El proceso de toma de decisiones y el diseño e implementación de políticas públicas necesitan ser analizados en el marco de la influencia que ejerce sobre ellos la visión de futuros de los actores urbanos. El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la construcción de escenarios de futuro de las ciudades. En el artículo se argumenta que la construcción de escenarios futuros refleja una visión tanto del presente en cuanto a preocupaciones e intereses, como de la literacidad de futuro de actores urbanos. Este artículo analiza y caracteriza un corpus de escenarios diversos de ciudades de diferentes países. La caracterización de escenarios se basó en tendencias, visiones exploratorias o aspiraciones del futuro, así como en su grado de innovación, incertidumbre y complejidad. En general, los escenarios de futuros analizados dan cuenta de una postura normativa, determinista y tendencial de los actores urbanos, mientras la mayoría se encuentra en una “zona de baja incertidumbre” y con un nivel medio de innovación.

ABSTRACT The decision-making process and the design and implementation of public policies need to be analyzed within the framework of the influence exerted on them by urban actors’ vision of futures. The objective of this article is to analyze the construction of future scenarios for cities. The article argues that the construction of future scenarios reflects a vision of both the present in terms of concerns and interests, and the future literacy of urban actors. This article analyzes and characterizes a corpus of future scenarios of cities in different countries. The characterization of scenarios was based on trends, exploratory visions or aspirations for the future, as well as their degree of innovation, uncertainty and complexity. In general, the future scenarios analyzed show a normative, deterministic, and trend-oriented stance of urban actors, while the majority is in a “zone of low uncertainty” and with a medium level of innovation.

Abstract Violence against indigenous peoples has notably increased in recent years, and its news has been consequent on the violence faced by defenders of their rights. This article aims to explain this pattern of violence, demonstrating how legal uncertainty within the demarcation process encourages indigenous people and landowners to go to war. Through the study of the case of the Xukuru People of Ororubá, we describe two major violent events to demonstrate the set of threats, murders, autonomous retaking of demarcated territory, and institutional violence incidents by the police, Federal Public Prosecutor's Office and FUNAI. We rationalize these facts in a game theory matrix to demonstrate that the legal insecurity of the territory under demarcation leads both sides, as rational actors, to act and use all available resources to defeat the opponent, generating a suboptimal balance. This result leads to two outspreads. First, Brazil's failure to comply with the obligation to provide domestic legal effects allows the courts to adopt a legal thesis that conditions the effectiveness of territorial rights to Funai's budget. Second, an informal institutional arrangement translated into the permanence of the territory with non-indigenous people's rule. It was identified by the set of sanctions that the literature called the enemy's logic, composed of the criminalization of indigenous leaders and human rights defenders, as well as the distortion of purpose in the performance of public bodies. Therefore, this work contributes to the literature of Indigenous Law, Constitutional Law, and International Human Rights Law by offering a causal link between state omission and physical and institutional violence. years war Ororubá threats murders police Prosecutors Prosecutor s FUNAI sides actors opponent balance outspreads First Brazils Brazil Funais Funai budget Second nonindigenous non rule enemys enemy logic bodies Therefore

Resumo A violência contra povos indígenas e seus membros aumentou de maneira notável nos últimos anos, cujas notícias têm sido acompanhadas pela violência enfrentada por defensores de seus direitos. O objetivo deste artigo é oferecer uma explicação para este padrão de violência, demonstrando como a insegurança jurídica dentro do processo demarcatório incentiva povos indígenas e proprietários a entrar em guerra. Através do estudo do caso do Povo Xukuru do Ororubá, descrevemos dois grandes eventos de violência enfrentados para demonstrar o conjunto de ameaças, assassinatos, retomadas autônomas de território demarcado e violência institucional exercida pelas polícias, Ministério Público Federal e Funai. Racionalizamos esses fatos numa matriz de teoria dos jogos para demonstrar que a indefinição da situação do território em demarcação leva ambos os lados, como atores racionais, a agir ao invés de se omitir, utilizando todos os recursos disponíveis para derrotar o oponente e gerando um equilíbrio subótimo. Este resultado leva a dois grandes desdobramentos. Primeiro, o descumprimento pelo Brasil da obrigação de prover dispositivos de direito interno a permitir com que os tribunais adotem tese jurídica que condiciona a eficácia dos direitos territoriais ao orçamento da Funai. Segundo, a existência de um arranjo institucional informal traduzido na permanência do território com os não-indígenas e identificado pela existência de sanções que a literatura denomina como lógica do inimigo, composta pela criminalização de lideranças indígenas e defensores de direitos humanos, assim como pelo desvirtuamento de finalidade na atuação de órgãos públicos. Desta feita, este trabalho contribui para a literatura do Direito Indigenista, Direito Constitucional e Direito Internacional dos Direitos Humanos ao oferecer um nexo de causalidade entre a omissão do estado e a violência física e institucional. anos guerra Ororubá ameaças assassinatos polícias Funai lados racionais omitir subótimo desdobramentos Primeiro Segundo nãoindígenas não inimigo humanos públicos feita Indigenista

Resumen Introducción. La ansiedad del parto y el posparto es una condición común entre las mujeres embarazadas por la incertidumbre de vivir el embarazo y el parto por primera vez o por previas experiencias negativas. El miedo al parto puede afectar el proceso del cuidado del bebé de la madre. Objetivo. Determinar el efecto de las preocupaciones maternas sobre el parto y el puerperio y su efecto sobre las conductas obsesivas y compulsivas relacionadas con el cuidado del bebé. Materiales y métodos. El estudio se realizó con 260 madres. Los datos fueron recolectados en el formulario de información descriptiva y se usaron la “Escala de miedo al parto y al período posparto” y la de “Comportamientos obsesivos y compulsivos de las madres en el período posparto relacionados con el cuidado del bebé”. Los datos fueron evaluados mediante el software SPSS™ mediante el cálculo de porcentajes, promedio, prueba t, ANOVA, correlación de Pearson y análisis de regresión múltiple. Resultados. Se encontró una correlación positiva y estadísticamente significativa entre la “Escala de miedo al parto y del período posparto” y la de “Comportamientos obsesivos y compulsivos de las madres en el período posparto relacionadas con el cuidado del bebé” (p < 0.01). En el modelo creado por análisis de regresión se observó que el 18,0% del cambio en la escala de comportamientos obsesivos-compulsivos estaba explicado por el miedo al parto y al puerperio (R2corregido = 0,180). Conclusiones. En el estudio se determinó que el miedo al parto y al puerperio era moderado. Sin embargo, a medida que aumentaba el puntaje de miedo al parto y al período posparto, también aumentaban los comportamientos obsesivos y compulsivos de las madres en el puerperio relacionados con el cuidado del bebé.

Abstract Introduction. Postpartum anxiety after childbirth is a common condition among pregnant women due to reasons such as the uncertainty of experiencing pregnancy and childbirth for the first time, or previous negative experiences. Fear of childbirth can affect the mother’s baby care process. Objective. This study was conducted analytically with a single-subject design to determine the effects of maternal concerns about childbirth and the postpartum period on obsessive and compulsive behaviors related to baby care. Materials and methods. The study was conducted with 260 mothers. Data were collected using a descriptive information form, and the scales ‘Fear of Childbirth and Postpartum Period’, and ‘Obsessive and Compulsive Behaviors of Mothers in the Postpartum Period Related to Baby Care’. The data were analyzed using the SPSS™ software to calculate percentages, mean values, t tests, ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and simple linear regression analysis. Results. A statistically significant and positive correlation was found between participant scores of the ‘Fear of Childbirth and Postpartum Period’ and the ‘Obsessive and Compulsive Behaviors of Mothers in the Postpartum Period Related to Baby Care’ scales (p < 0.01). The regression model showed that 18.0% of the total variance in the obsessive and compulsive behaviors of mothers in the postpartum was explained by the fear of childbirth and the postpartum period (corrected R2 = 0.180). Conclusions. Fear of childbirth and the postpartum period were moderate. However, as the fear of women regarding childbirth and the postpartum period increased, their postpartum obsessive and compulsive behaviors about baby care also increased.

Die inflasiekoers en die produksiegaping speel 'n belangrike rol in die monetêrebeleidstand-punt. Alhoewel die publiek inflasie redelik goed verstaan, is die produksiegaping 'n relatief onbekende begrip. Definisies van potensiële produksie kan dubbelsinnig wees, aangesien die term dikwels gebruik word om verwante, maar logies afsonderlike, konsepte te beskryf. Die produksiegaping word ook nie direk waargeneem nie en word afgelei uit beramings van potensiële produksie, wat self nie waarneembaar of meetbaar is nie en dus beraam moet word. Hierdie beramings kan egter sensitief wees vir verskillende metodologiese paradigmas en databeskikbaarheid. Die doel van hierdie artikel is om by te dra tot 'n beter begrip van en groter deursigtigheid in plaaslike monetêre beleid deur die rol van die produksiegaping in Suid-Afrikaanse monetêre beleid te verduidelik. Eerstens word die idees onderliggend aan die konsep van die produksiegaping bespreek, waarna 'n werksdefinisie van die produksiegaping in die konteks van monetêre beleid voorgestel word. Verskeie metodologieë en empiriese tegnieke waarvolgens potensiële produksie en die produksiegaping beraam kan word, word bespreek, insluitende eenveranderlike statistiese tegnieke, strukturele modelle en semistrukturele benaderings. Die artikel verduidelik voorts hoe die Suid-Afrikaanse Reserwebank (SARB) die plaaslike produksiegaping beraam en hoe hierdie beraamde produksiegaping op die monetêrebeleidstand-punt inwerk. Ten slotte word die SARB se monetêrebeleidstandpunt beskou met betrekking tot die inflasiekoers en produksiegapingsberamings oor die afgelope twee dekades ten einde die reaksie van die plaaslike monetêre beleid op groot ekonomiese skokke soos die wêreldwye finansiële krisis en COVID-19 te illustreer, en ten einde die beramings se sensitiwiteit vir datahersienings uit te lig.

The inflation rate and the output gap are two of the main determinants of the monetary policy stance. However, while inflation is relatively well understood by the public, the output gap is not. The output gap is not directly observed and is derived from estimates of potential output. Potential output is also not observable or measurable, and therefore needs to be estimated. Such estimates can, however, be sensitive to different methodological paradigms and the availability of data, while definitions of potential output may be ambiguous, because the term is often used to describe related, but logically distinct, concepts. With the aim of contributing to a better understanding of and greater transparency in domestic monetary policy, this paper describes the role of the output gap in South African monetary policy by broadly examining the following three questions: (i) What exactly is the output gap?; (ii) How is it measured? and (iii) Why is it important? To begin with, the idea underlying the concept of the output gap is explained and a tentative working definition of the output gap in the context of monetary policy is provided. Various methodologies and empirical techniques of estimating potential output and the output gap are then discussed, including univariate statistical techniques, structural models and semi-structural approaches. This is followed by an explanation of how the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) estimates the domestic output gap, and how the estimated output gap feeds into the monetary policy stance. Finally, the SARB's monetary policy stance is viewed in relation to the inflation rate and output gap estimates over the last two decades to illustrate the domestic monetary policy response to notable economic events such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 shock, and to highlight the sensitivity of the estimates to data revision. This paper shows that both actual and potential economic growth have declined over the last decade, even without taking into account the COVID-19 shock. This is consistent with the South African empirical literature, and points to a worrying and persistent stagnation in domestic economic activity. After strong economic activity during the early 2000s, the economy started slowing down in 2008. This may be ascribed to a number of factors, including the introduction of load-shedding in 2007, changes in the global economic landscape following the globalfinancial crisis, dwindling infrastructure investment after the 2010 FIFA World Cup tournament, and uncertainty about domestic economic policy. COVID-19 brought about a massive economic shock in 2020. Lockdown regulations saw capital and labour withdrawn from economic use, which caused real GDP and potential output to contract by 6,2% and 2,7%, respectively, for the year. The output gap, which has mainly remained in negative territory since 2009, fell to -7,9% in the second quarter of 2020. In response to the crisis, the SARB drastically lowered the policy rate and applied several other financial market interventions, but even this extensive range of stimuli failed to prevent an economic collapse. Moreover, the output gap has remained negative despite a minor rebound of the economy in 2021 and 2022, which indicated that economic activity remained on its weakpre-COVID-19 trajectory. Inflation has stabilised markedly since 2010. This may be partly due to weak domestic economic activity that does not exert significant domestic inflationary pressures. In fact, many of the notable inflationary episodes of the last 25years were largely caused by external factors, such as the rand depreciation shock and the global financial crisis. This benign domestic inflationary environment has arguably made it easier for the SARB to achieve its inflation target. Such consistency has contributed to an increase in the SARB's credibility, which, in turn, has led to inflation expectations that are lower and better anchored.

Abstract: Games of chance among the indigenous peoples of Latin America have a long history. Used with a ludic purpose and to make decisions in situations of uncertainty, they are a source of cultural knowledge for the development of statistical reasoning. This study proposes a curricular and teaching development alternative that links cultural knowledge about indigenous people's games of chance and the statistical reasoning expected in the curriculum, in the framework of a pedagogical duo established by a mathematics teacher and a cultural scholar. By means of a content analysis in the modeling of the activities, we studied the assessment of the proposal. The results show that the teachers focus on the equiprobability of the events, leaving aside the complexity of the cultural mathematical artifact, while the cultural scholars estimate the limits and scope of the processes in order to make them coherent with local practices.

Resumen: Los juegos de azar de los pueblos indígenas de Latinoamérica gozan de larga data. Utilizados con un propósito lúdico y para tomar decisiones en situaciones de incerteza, son una fuente de conocimiento cultural para el desarrollo del razonamiento estadístico. Este estudio propone una alternativa de desarrollo curricular y de enseñanza que vincula el conocimiento cultural sobre los juegos de azar de pueblos indígenas y el razonamiento estadístico esperado curricularmente, en el marco de una dupla pedagógica establecida por un profesor de matemática y un sabio cultural. Mediante un análisis del contenido en la modelación de las actividades, estudiamos la valoración de la propuesta. Los resultados muestran que los profesores atienden a la equiprobabilidad de los sucesos dejando de lado la complejidad del artefacto matemático cultural, mientras que los sabios culturales estiman los límites y alcances de los procesos para hacerlos coherentes con las prácticas locales.

Abstract: This article explores analytically different senses and usages of the concept of wonder, in order to analyze which of them are more fruitful for fostering care for nature, especially when it tends to avoid scientific reductionism or fundamentalist understandings of religions. Wonder that is understood as openess to mystery and uncertainty is particularly positive precisely beacause it moves us away from the aforementioned dangers. In this sense, wonder as awe seems to be the most positive sense of wonder. Inasmuch wonder questions our way of doing things and/or our preconceptions it may be a useful resource to embrace for environmentally friendly habits. The article compares this sense of wonder that Rachel Carson developed in order to question our dominion of nature and tendency to control it, with Pope Francis' claim that paying attention to reality rather than to our deformed visions of nature is necessary to foster care for the environment rather than destroying it. In conclusion the article argues that wonder is a powerful resource, for believers and non-believers alike, to build a better relationship with the environment in order to preserve it.

Resumen: El artículo explora primeramente los diferentes usos y sentidos de la palabra maravilla (wonder) para buscar aquellos que son más útiles para favorecer el cuidado de la naturaleza, especialmente cuando ayudan a evitar el reduccionismo científico o las comprensiones fundamentalistas de la religión. La maravilla que se entiende primariamente como apertura al misterio y a la incerteza es particularmente positiva puesto que nos ayuda a prevenir los peligros apenas mencionados. En este sentido, la maravilla como asombro o estupor parece ser el sentido más positivo de la maravilla. En cuanto la maravilla cuestiona nuestras prácticas y prejuicios antes la realidad puede ser un recurso útil para desarrollar prácticas amigables con el ambiente. El artículo compara este sentido de la maravilla desarrollado por Rachel Carson para cuestionar las pretensiones de dominio y control ante la naturaleza, con la apertura a la realidad que propone el Papa Francisco como necesaria para cuidar el ambiente, en vez de seguir nuestras visiones deformadas de la naturaleza que llevan a destruirla. El artículo concluye argumentando a favor de que la maravilla es un poderoso recurso, tanto para creyentes como para no-creyentes, para desarrollar una mejor relación con el ambiente en orden a preservarlo.

Resumen La alta demanda laboral impuesta por la naturaleza del emprendimiento puede resultar abrumadora. Los trabajadores autónomos suelen asumir múltiples roles, desde la gestión financiera hasta las operaciones diarias, en un entorno empresarial no siempre favorable. Esta acumulación de responsabilidades, además de un desafío práctico, impacta de manera significativa la capacidad de los emprendedores para manejar eficazmente el estrés. Desde esta perspectiva, el estudio tiene como objetivo analizar implicaciones de factores internos y externos que influyen en las manifestaciones de estrés de los trabajadores autónomos, fundadores de pequeñas empresas en la provincia Manabí, Ecuador. Utilizando una metodología cuantitativa y aplicando regresión logística, los resultados revelan una significativa afectación en los niveles de estrés de este colectivo, sobre todo, por las deudas adquiridas, las extensas horas laboradas que limitan el ocio y el bienestar familiar y algunos obstáculos de índole externo como el acceso a la financiación, regulaciones aduaneras y comerciales, la competencia, la ausencia de demanda y la incertidumbre económica. Este estudio no solo proporciona una visión profunda de las experiencias de estrés de los trabajadores autónomos, sino que también destaca la necesidad urgente de políticas específicas que aborden estos desafíos y fomenten un entorno empresarial más saludable.

Abstract The high labor demand imposed by the nature of the venture can be overwhelming. Freelancers often take on multiple roles, from financial management to daily operations, in a business environment that is not always favorable. This accumulation of responsibilities, in addition to being a practical challenge, significantly impacts entrepreneurs' ability to effectively manage stress. From this perspective, the study aims to analyze the implications of internal and external factors that influence the manifestations of stress of self-employed workers, founders of small businesses in the province of Manabí, Ecuador. Using a quantitative methodology and applying logistic regression, the results reveal a significant impact on the stress levels of this group, especially due to the debts acquired, the long hours worked that limit leisure and family well-being, and some external obstacles. such as access to financing, customs and trade regulations, competition, lack of demand and economic uncertainty. This study not only provides deep insight into the stress experiences of freelancers, but also highlights the urgent need for targeted policies that address these challenges and foster a healthier business environment.

RESUMEN En este artículo se presentan los principales autores que desarrollan modelos de estimación de la incertidumbre, en procesos de planeación estratégica de las organizaciones y su incidencia en los objetivos institucionales. En este orden de ideas, se ha realizado una revisión de la literatura con fundamento en enfoques y modelos que han sido utilizados a través del tiempo para manejar la incertidumbre empresarial y se presentan algunos casos aplicados para diferentes factores internos de una organización; así mismo dentro de este artículo se contemplan factores externos como medioambientales en los cuales se han hecho uso de los siguientes modelos: modelo de decisión, modelo de factores locales vs fuerzas conductoras, simulación Monte Carlo y Modelo Delphi; y finalmente para los factores sociopolíticos se ha implementado el enfoque heurístico para explorar las incertidumbres en la planificación. Por otro lado, se realiza un análisis de los tipos de planificación que manejan las organizaciones con sus respectivos modelos de incertidumbre. La principal conclusión obtenida, radica en el hecho de que no existen modelos que integren elementos tanto endógenos como exógenos capaces de reducir la incertidumbre para efectos de una adecuada planeación estratégica en las organizaciones y proyectos de inversión a su cargo.

ABSTRACT This article presents the main authors who develop uncertainty estimation models in strategic planning processes of organizations and their impact on institutional objectives. In this order of ideas, a review of the literature has been carried out based on approaches and models that have been used over time to manage business uncertainty and some cases applied to different internal factors of an organization are presented; Likewise, within this article, external and environmental factors are considered in which the following models have been used: decision model, local factors vs driving forces model, Monte Carlo simulation and Delphi Model; and finally for sociopolitical factors, the heuristic approach has been implemented to explore uncertainties in planning. On the other hand, an analysis is carried out of the types of planning that organizations manage with their respective uncertainty models. The main conclusion obtained lies in the fact that there are no models that integrate both endogenous and exogenous elements capable of reducing uncertainty for the purposes of adequate strategic planning in the organizations and investment projects under their charge.