RESUMEN Entre las consecuencias del cambio climático en los sistemas costeros está el cambio del nivel del mar, el cual funciona como una línea base sobre la cual opera una variedad de procesos costeros, a diferentes escalas de tiempo y espacio. La presente investigación tiene por objetivo calcular la tasa histórica y actual de ascenso del nivel del mar a partir de datos de la estación mareográfica Limón. Para esto se utilizaron dos métodos: el análisis de regresión lineal simple y una descomposición de series temporales. Como resultado se obtuvo una tasa de cambio del nivel del mar para el período 1952 a 1968 de 2.32 mm/año con el primer método y 3.41 mm/año para el segundo método, que es consecuente con las publicaciones existentes. En el caso del período actual (2009 a 2021) se obtuvo una tasa de 4.18 mm/año para el primer método y 4.28 mm/año con el segundo método. Los resultados obtenidos confirman que existe una tendencia al aumento del nivel del mar en la región estudiada, situación que debe ser considerada al estudiar las transformaciones que están ocurriendo en la costa, como lo son la erosión costera identificada en algunas zonas del Caribe costarricense.

ABSTRACT One of the consequences of climate change is sea level change in coastal systems, which function as a baseline, where a variety of coastal processes operate at different time and space scales. The objective of the present research is to calculate the historic and current rate of sea level rise, from Limon tide gauge station’s data. Two methods were utilized for this purpose: Simple linear regression analysis and time series decomposition; with the first method, a rate of 2.32 mm/yr of sea level change was obtained for the time period 1952 to 1968; with the second one, a rate result of 3.41 mm/yr which is consequent with the existing publications. In the current period (2009 - 2021) a rate of 4.18 mm/yr was obtained with the first method and 4.28 mm/yr with the second method. The results gathered confirm the existence of an upward trend in sea level rise in the studied region. This situation should be considered when studying the transformation taking place in the coast, such as the coastal erosion identified in some of the Costa Rican Caribbean zone.

Ante las brechas detectadas en la práctica de la ingeniería nacional, se propone una metodología para integrar los efectos del cambio climático en el diseño de infraestructura costera y portuaria. La metodología considera cuatro etapas: 1) selección de forzantes climáticos a escala global, 2) procesamiento de forzantes climáticos a escala regional, 3) procesamiento de variables de diseño a escala local y 4) aplicación en diferentes ámbitos del diseño de infraestructura. La metodología integra el cálculo de variables oceanográficas (e.g. presión atmosférica, viento, oleaje, marea astronómica, marea meteorológica y aumento del nivel del mar) en un diagrama de flujo que puede interactuar con otras variables de diseño, como los sismos y tsunamis. Se presentan ejemplos sobre cálculos de operatividad portuaria, nivel del mar extremo en playas, sobrepaso de obras marítimas y erosión de playas. Proponemos que el estado desarrolle las etapas 1) y 2), dando acceso libre a los actores que participan en el diseño de infraestructura costera y portuaria.

Given the gaps detected in the national engineering practice, a methodology is proposed to integrate the effects of climate change in the design of coastal and port infrastructure. The methodology considers four stages, namely: 1) selection of climatic drivers on a global scale, 2) processing of climatic drivers on a regional scale, 3) processing of design variables on a local scale and 4) application in different areas of infrastructure design. The methodology integrates the calculation of oceanographic variables (e.g. atmospheric pressure, wind, waves, astronomical tide, meteorological tide and sea level rise) in a flow diagram that can interact with other design variables, such as earthquakes and tsunamis. Examples are presented on calculations of port operational downtime, extreme sea levels on beaches, wave overtopping of maritime works and beach erosion. We encourage state agencies to develop stages 1) and 2), providing open access to stakeholders involved in the design of coastal and port infrastructure.

ABSTRACT Along the coast of the state of Pernambuco, NE Brazil, the presence of coastal outcrops aligned with the shoreline and distributed above and below the mean sea level is remarkable. These outcrops were sampled, and petrological, isotopic, and geochronological analyses were integrated to investigate the local effects of the Holocene sea-level fluctuations. The results indicate that the rocks are recent (< 8ka), formed by cementation of beach sands (magnesian calcite cement, predominance of quartz and presence of marine bioclasts, signs of compaction, fractures, and dissolution), in a tropical climate and warm waters, which allows to classify them as typical examples of beachrocks. The carbonate cement consisted of Mg-rich calcite with values ranging from −1.1‰ to 3.5‰ for δ13C and from −0.9‰ to 0.5‰ for δ18OVPDB. These isotopic values are typical of marine carbonate cemented deposits in shallow marine environments under freshwater influence (meteoric vadose environment). In these conditions, the cementing processes occurred in the intertidal zones, which reinforce the use of these data as indicators of ancient sea levels. The sea level fluctuations could be divided, in chronological order, into three different phases, starting with a rapid sea level rise followed by a relative stabilization at a maximum level and, finally, a decreasing phase. Recent sea level fluctuations in Pernambuco are represented by beachrocks with ages between 8 ka and 800 years and a maximum level of 2 to 3 meters above the present mean level. In scenarios of a near future with a general global sea level rise pattern, significant local geomorphological changes may occur, which means a great future challenge to society. Brazil remarkable sampled petrological sealevel < ( 8ka, 8ka , 8ka) magnesian bioclasts compaction fractures dissolution, dissolution dissolution) waters Mgrich Mg rich 11 1 −1.1 35 5 3.5 δC δ C 09 0 9 −0.9 05 0.5 δ18OVPDB δOVPDB OVPDB meteoric environment. environment . environment) conditions zones levels divided order phases finally phase 80 pattern occur society −1. 3. −0. 0. −1 −0 −

Abstract Understanding the dynamics of sea surface variation and its direct effects on the coastal population has been a central issue of study for oceanography in conjunction with other areas of geosciences. One of the main challenges in a changing global ocean is continuously monitoring on an adequate scale that can detail locally varying phenomena. This study reviews the methods to obtain coastal topo-bathymetric data and the tools available to produce flood maps and coastal sea-level rise monitoring models. The advantages and limitations of the main tools are described, highlighting the difficulties related to implementation time and financial investment in contrast to the quality of the obtained data. A case study of the Paranaguá Estuarine Complex — of great environmental, economic, and tourism importance — is presented as its sea-level fluctuations have been poorly studied. For this reason, we describe the Paranaguá Estuarine Complex, highlighting and discussing the structural and methodological challenges and the lack of resources that limit the possibilities of a detailed study of the Paranaguá Estuarine Complex from the point of view of natural disasters, thus stimulating the debate on the necessary actions to address climate change at the local level. geosciences phenomena topobathymetric topo bathymetric sealevel level models described environmental economic studied reason disasters

Abstract Regional sea level rise varies from the global average and is influenced by climate variability. We studied sea level anomalies in southern Brazil from 1993 to 2022, finding increasing trend from 1993 to 2022. We used oceanic and atmospheric dynamics to understand the rapid sea level rise. Positive trends in the Southern Annular Mode and the South Atlantic Ocean subtropical gyre intensified wind stress curl and Ekman transport. If global warming continues and the Southern Annular Mode remains in a positive trend, sea level rise in southern Brazil is likely to persist and increase risks for the population in this low-lying coastal area. variability 199 2022 transport lowlying low lying area 19 202 1 20 2

Abstract The Indonesian Cable-Based Tsunameter (InaCBT) is the most recently developed innovative prototype that has been deployed in the Flores Sea north of Labuan Bajo, Flores Island, Indonesia. Two ocean bottom units (OBU) were attached to a single fiber-optic cable. The first one is 34.0 km from the shore at a depth of 2100 m (LB-01) and the second one is 54.2 km from the shore at depth of 4110 m (LB-02), respectively. Each OBU comprises one deep-sea bottom pressure recorder (BPR); a three-axis accelerometer; and temperature, humidity, and leakage sensors. Since deployment, the InaCBT has detected at least three near-field and distant earthquake events. One of them, the M7.5 Banda earthquake (EQ), detected on January 9, 2023, resulted a rise of the sea level recorded at six coastal tidal stations around the location. Near real-time analysis applies Lanczos filtering to split EQ signals (high frequency) and tsunamis (low frequency, if present). EQ wave signals dominate at 10-14-second wave periods. Using data from Banda EQ, the low-frequency wave shows an oscillation that probably indicates the presence of a tsunami wave. The identification and distinction of EQs and tsunami can be done by directly filtering raw data without detiding and by using harmonic analysis. The 30-50-second cut-off period can separate EQ and tsunami signals. CableBased Cable Based (InaCBT Bajo Island Indonesia (OBU fiberoptic fiber optic cable 340 34 0 34. 210 LB01 LB 01 (LB-01 542 54 2 54. 411 LB02, LB02 02 , (LB-02) respectively deepsea deep BPR (BPR) threeaxis axis accelerometer temperature humidity sensors deployment nearfield near field events them M75 M M7 5 M7. (EQ) 9 2023 location realtime real time high frequency low present. present . present) 1014second 10 14 periods lowfrequency 3050second 30 50 cutoff cut off 3 21 LB0 (LB-0 41 (LB-02 (BPR (EQ 202 1 (LB- 4 20 (LB

Abstract Anthropization process and climatic changes, mainly deforestation and sea level rise, are factors significantly contributing to the loss of mangrove ecosystems. The aim of our study is to analyze the effects of the dynamics of human activities closely associated with these ecosystems’ degradation. We identify and compare soil use and occupation variations based on information provided by 140 randomly chosen participants at the Caracol County - Haiti. The results analyzed through multivariate regression tests, the most significant exploratory variable for the mangroves’ degradation process was “mangrove occupation”, regardless of age, gender, schooling, time in the same residence, profession, home distance from the mangrove, landslide events, and risk of floods. We have concluded that distance from home, ecological function, intervention in biodiversity conservation, as well as water-climatic and geo-physical threats are factors closely correlated to mangroves’ environmental conservation and management. changes rise ecosystems 14 Haiti tests mangroves occupation, , occupation” age gender schooling residence profession events floods function waterclimatic water geophysical geo physical management 1

Resumen El proceso de antropización y el cambio climático, principalmente la deforestación y el aumento del nivel del mar, son factores que contribuyen significativamente a la pérdida de los ecosistemas de manglares. La investigación analizó los efectos de la dinámica de las actividades humanas en la degradación de estos ecosistemas. Nosotros identificamos y comparamos las variaciones en el uso y ocupación del suelo a partir de información de 140 participantes elegidos al azar en el Municipio de Caracol - Haiti. Los resultados indicó eso la variable más significativa para la degradación del manglar fue la “ocupación del manglar”, independientemente de la edad, genero, escolaridad, tiempo en la misma residencia, profesión de los participantes, distancia residencia/manglar, eventos de deslizamiento y riesgo de inundación. Concluimos que la distancia de la residencia, la función ecológica, la intervención en la conservación de la biodiversidad, las amenazas hidroclimáticas y geofísicas son factores correlacionados con la conservación y manejo ambiental de los manglares. climático mar manglares 14 Haiti manglar, , manglar” edad genero escolaridad residencia residenciamanglar residencia/manglar inundación ecológica biodiversidad 1

Resumo O processo de antropização e as mudanças climáticas, principalmente o desmatamento e a elevação do nível do mar, são fatores que contribuem significativamente para a perda dos ecossistemas de mangue. A pesquisa analisou os efeitos da dinâmica das atividades humanas à degradação desses ecossistemas. Foram avaliadas as variações de uso e ocupação do solo com base em informações de 140 participantes escolhidos aleatoriamente no município de Caracol - Haiti. Os resultados mostraram que a variável mais significativa para a degradação dos manguezais foi a “ocupação do mangue”, independente de idade, gênero, escolaridade, tempo na mesma residência, profissão dos participantes, distância residência/mangue, eventos de deslizamento de terra e risco de inundações. Concluímos que a distância da residência para o mangue, função ecológica, intervenção na conservação da biodiversidade, ameaças hidroclimáticas e geofísicas são fatores correlacionados à conservação e ao manejo ambiental dos manguezais. climáticas mar mangue 14 Haiti , mangue” idade gênero escolaridade residênciamangue residência/mangue inundações ecológica biodiversidade 1

Abstract Coastal wetlands are formed by ecosystems with the potential to resist and even expand because of climate change. However, they depend on the preservation of their environmental quality and the ecosystem services they provide, including sediment accumulation, which is essential for maintaining current areas, and the presence of contiguous land areas free from human occupation, allowing for migration to higher areas in response to sea-level rise. To develop a methodology for the joint assessment of the impacts of climate change and land occupation of coastal ecosystems, this study focuses on the mangroves of Baía da Babitonga, located on the northern coast of Santa Catarina. By using projections of sea-level rise and human occupation expansion around the bay based on land cover and land use data, it was possible to identify immediate effects of sea-level rise and human occupation in the short, medium, and long term, as well as the potential expansion area for mangroves. The results indicate the need for the expansion of conservation areas, considering displacement zones towards the mainland, and the control of various stress factors that can interfere with the ecosystem's health and its ability to maintain current areas. However provide accumulation sealevel sea level Babitonga Catarina data short medium term mainland s

Resumo As zonas úmidas costeiras são formadas por ecossistemas com potencial para resistir e até se expandirem em decorrência das mudanças climáticas. Para tanto, dependem da preservação da sua qualidade ambiental e dos serviços ecossistêmicos que prestam, entre eles a acumulação de sedimentos, fundamental para a manutenção das áreas atuais, e a presença de áreas terrestres contíguas livres da ocupação humana, permitindo o deslocamento para áreas mais elevadas, acompanhando o nível do mar. De forma a desenvolver uma metodologia para a avaliação conjunta dos impactos das mudanças climáticas e da ocupação do solo sobre ecossistemas costeiros, este trabalho está focado nos mangues da Baía da Babitonga, localizada no litoral norte de Santa Catarina. Utilizando-se projeções de elevação do nível do mar e da expansão da ocupação humana no entorno da baía a partir de dados de cobertura e uso do solo, foi possível identificar efeitos instantâneos do aumento do nível do mar e da ocupação humana a curto, médio e longo prazo, além da área potencial de expansão dos manguezais. Os resultados obtidos indicam a necessidade da expansão de áreas de conservação, considerando-se também zonas de deslocamento em direção ao continente, e no controle dos diversos fatores de estresse que podem interferir na saúde do ecossistema e em sua capacidade de manter as áreas atuais. tanto prestam sedimentos atuais elevadas costeiros Babitonga Catarina Utilizandose Utilizando curto prazo manguezais conservação considerandose considerando continente

RESUMEN Antecedentes. Los arrecifes de coral proporcionan diversas funciones geo-ecológicas importantes esenciales para la sostenibilidad de las comunidades humanas costeras. Sin embargo, durante los últimos 50 años, los ecosistemas arrecifales están experimentando una rápida degradación ocasionada por perturbaciones naturales y antropogénicas. Una consecuencia de lo anterior ha sido la reducción de la tasa de producción de carbonatos y la complejidad estructural de estos sistemas. Particularmente, la pérdida de especies coralinas clave en la construcción de arrecifes ha comprometido la funcionalidad del ecosistema. Objetivo. En este estudio utilizamos una adaptación de la metodología ReefBudget para medir el balance de carbonato de calcio en el arrecife de La Entrega, Oaxaca, México. Métodos. Se realizaron seis transectos para estimar la de abundancia de peces erosionadores (25 x 4 m), erizos (25 x 2 m) y la composición del bentos. Resultados. Al realizar los cálculos correspondientes, se encontró que en La Entrega se producen 13.72 kg m-2 año-1 (unidades comúnmente referidas con “G”), la endobioerosión (incluida la erosión por esponjas) calculada fue de 5.65 G. La erosión por erizos es de 0.12 G y la de peces es de 0.73 G; el balance neto de carbonatos resultantes fue de 7.21 G. La tasa de acreción (crecimiento vertical del arrecife) en el arrecife de La Entrega fue de 7.07 mm año-1. Consideramos importante mencionar que el parche arrecifal en La Entrega es relativamente pequeño (aproximadamente 324 x 233 m) en comparación con las formaciones de regiones del Caribe o el Indo-Pacífico. Conclusiones. La producción neta en La Entrega es superior a la estimada en la mayoría de los arrecifes del Caribe (2-4 G) pero más baja que la del Indo-Pacífico (5-14 G). Las diferencias en el balance entre regiones están, principalmente, asociadas a las diferencias en las abundancias de especies constructoras en cada región. De acuerdo con lo modelado en este trabajo, el parche arrecifal de La Entrega presenta una tasa de acreción suficiente para lidiar con una posible elevación en el nivel del mar bajo los escenarios RCP 4.5 y 2.6 (4 y 7 mm, respectivamente).

ABSTRACT Background. Coral reefs provide several important geo-ecological functions essential for the sustainability of coastal human communities. However, during the last 50 years, reef ecosystems are experiencing rapid degradation caused by natural and anthropogenic disturbances. One consequence of the above has been the reduction in the carbonate production rate and the structural complexity of these systems. Particularly, the loss of key coral species in the construction of reefs has compromised the functionality of the ecosystem. Objective. In this study we used an adaptation of the ReefBudget methodology to measure the calcium carbonate budget in the reef of La Entrega, Oaxaca, Mexico. Methods. Six transects were carried out to estimate the abundance of eroding fish (25 x 4 m), sea urchins (25 x 2 m) and the composition of the benthos. Results. When carrying out the corresponding calculations, it was found that in La Entrega 13.72 kg m-2 year-1 (commonly referred as “G”) are produced, the endobioerosion (including erosion by sponges) calculated was 5.65 G. The sea urchin erosion is 0.12 G and that of fish is 0.73 G; the resulting net carbonate budget was 7.21 G. The accretion rate (vertical reef growth) at La Entrega reef was 7.07 mm yr-1. We consider it important to mention that the reef patch at La Entrega is relatively small (approximately 324 x 233 m) compared to formations in the Caribbean or Indo-Pacific regions. Conclusions. Net production at La Entrega is higher than estimated for most Caribbean reefs (2-4 G) but lower than that of the Indo-Pacific (5-14 G). Differences in the balance between regions are mainly associated with differences in the abundances of builder species in each region. According to what was modeled in this work, the La Entrega reef patch presents a sufficient accretion rate to deal with a possible rise in sea level under the RCP 4.5 and 2.6 scenarios (4 and 7 mm, respectively).

ABSTRACT Peat bogs are wetlands characterized as swamps of very extreme cold and wet places. In Chile there are several types of them: sphagnum bogs (minerotrophic), pulvinated bogs (ombrotrophic), grassy bogs, shrubby bogs and wooded bogs. This work was carried out in the peat bogs of the northern limit of them areal, in Nahuelbuta National Park, located in the Cordillera de la Costa approximately 1200 to 2300 m above sea level between the Regions of Bío-Bío and Araucanía, Chile. The flora was studied with traditional methods and the vegetation with phytosociological methodology and the results were confirmed with multivariate classification and ordination statistics. The vascular, moss and lichenic flora showed little floristic richness, only 38 species. All the flora species are native and six of them are endemic. This flora gives rise to four new peaty plant associations for Chile: two pulvinate-bogs (Myrteolo-Donatietum fasciculariae and Gaultherio-Oreoboletum obtusangulae), one sphagnum-bogs (Carici- Sphagnetum magellanicii) and one grassy-bogs (Bacharido-Festucetum scabriusculae). When comparing the peat bogs studied with those further south, the donatia pulvinate-bogs appear to be more homogeneous than the sphagnum peat bogs, in fact, the former share five species and the latter, only two. In general, a greater variation of the pulvinated peat bogs was found in the Aysén Region and of the sphagnum bogs in the Chiloé Region, the latter coming out of the conglomerate formed by the other four places. It was confirmed that in both latitudinal extremes the peat bogs are poorer in species and the greatest richness occurs in the intermediate regions.

RESUMEN Las turberas son humedales caracterizados como pantanos de lugares fríos y húmedos, muy extremos. En Chile existen varios tipos de ellas: Turberas esfagnosas (minerotróficas), pulvinadas (ombrotróficas), turberas graminosas, Turberas turberas arbustivas y turberas boscosas. Se trabajó en las turberas del límite norte del área de ellas, en el Parque Nacional Nahuelbuta, ubicado en la Cordillera de la Costa aproximadamente 1200 a 2300 m de altitud entre las Regiones de Bío-Bío y la Araucanía, Chile. La flora se estudió con métodos tradicionales y la vegetación con metodología fitosociológica y los resultados fueron confirmados con estadística multivariada de clasificación y de ordenación. La flora vascular, muscícola y líquénica presentó escasa riqueza florística, sólo 38 especies. Todas las especies de flora son nativas e incluso, seis de ellas, endémicas. Esta flora da origen a cuatro nuevas asociaciones vegetales turbosas para Chile: dos pulvinadas (Myrteolo-Donatietum fasciculariae y Gaultherio-Oreoboletum obtusangulae), una esfagnosa (Carici-Sphagnetum magellanicii) y una graminosa (Bacharido-Festucetum scabriusculae). Al comparar las turberas estudiadas con aquellas más australes, las pulvinadas de donatia aparecen como más homogéneas, que aquellas esfagnosas, de hecho, las primeras comparten cinco especies y las segundas, sólo dos. En general se encontró una mayor variación de las turberas pulvinadas en la Región de Aysén y de las esfagnosas en la Región de Chiloé, estas últimas salen del conglomerado que forman los otros cuatro lugares. Se confirmó que en ambos extremos latitudinales las turberas son más pobres en especies y la mayor riqueza se presenta en las regiones intermedias.

Resumen. El incremento del nivel del mar se ha acelerado por el calentamiento global. Las zonas más amenazadas son las pequeñas islas y las planicies costeras. Tabasco se localiza en una llanura costera inundable. Utilizando información demográfica, valores de erosión costera y datos globales de elevación del nivel del mar, se identificó el área, y las localidades en ella, entre cero y un metro sobre el nivel del mar. Los resultados indican que 55.58% de la superficie estatal está en este rango. La potencial pérdida de territorio podría afectar a 76 localidades, transformando las posibles actividades productivas que se realicen.

Abstract. Sea level rise has been accelerated due to global warming. The most threatened areas are small islands and coastal plains. Tabasco is located in a coastal flood plain. Using demographic information, coastal erosion values and global sea level elevation data, the area and localities up to one meter above sea level (MASL) were identified. The results indicate that 55.58% of the state surface is within this range. In addition, the potential loss of territory could affect 76 localities, transforming the possible productive activities carried out.

RESUMEN Una de las preocupaciones sobre cambio climático es el ascenso del nivel del mar, el cual se encuentra asociado a un incremento de la erosión costera, intrusión salina en estuarios y riesgo de inundación. Estas alteraciones hacen necesaria evaluar la susceptibilidad costera y su capacidad de adaptación ante este fenómeno. El Índice de Vulnerabilidad Costera integrado por las variables geomorfología, pendiente, tasa de cambio de línea de costa, altura del oleaje significante, tasa de cambio del nivel relativo del mar y rango mareal medio, busca estimar localmente la vulnerabilidad. El presente trabajo se enfocó en determinar la vulnerabilidad en la línea costera de los sectores Volcán de Lodo, río Hobo, Zapata y punta Las Vacas, mediante el uso de fotografías aéreas, imágenes satelitales, datos in situ e información gubernamental, con el fin de precisar aquellos espacios en los cuales se debe concentrar una gestión eficaz para una futura adaptación. La aplicación del Índice de Vulnerabilidad Costera integrado (IVC) muestra que más de un tercio del litoral estudiado se encuentra en situación de muy alta vulnerabilidad, destacando la combinación de alta tasas de erosión (entre 2 y 9,8 m/año) con ascensos del nivel del mar que alcanzan 3 mm/año, poniendo en evidencia la necesidad urgente de priorizar y proteger los sitios Volcán de Lodo y río Hobo. Los resultados de vulnerabilidad generados ante el aumento del nivel del mar no evalúan la magnitud, ni la probabilidad de ocurrencia del mismo, ni intentan cuantificar daños o costos. Por tanto, se sugiere continuar con estudios más detallados en aquellos puntos que se consideren prioritarias para realizar el análisis de amenazas y cálculo de riesgo.

ABSTRACT One of the concerns about climate change is the rise in sea level, which is associated with an increase in coastal erosion, saline intrusion in estuaries and the risk of flooding. These changes make it necessary to evaluate the coastal susceptibility and its adaptation capacity facing with this phenomenon. The Coastal Vulnerability Index made up of the variables geomorphology, slope, rate of change of coastline, significant wave height, rate of change of relative sea level and mean tidal range, seeks to locally estimate vulnerability. This work focused on determining the Vulnerability in the coastline of the sectors Volcán de Lodo, Río Hobo, Zapata and Punta Las Vacas through the use of aerial photographs, satellite images, in situ data and government information, in order to specify those spaces in which effective management efforts must be concentrated for future adaptation. The application of the Integrated Coastal Vulnerability Index (IVC) shows that more than a third of the coastline studied is in a situation of very high vulnerability, highlighting the combination of high erosion rates (between 2 and 9.8 m /year) with sea level increases that reach 3 mm/year, highlighting the urgent need to prioritize and protect the Volcán de Lodo and Río Hobo sites. The vulnerability results generated by sea level rise do not assess the magnitude or the probability of its occurrence, nor do they attempt to quantify damages or costs. Therefore, it is suggested to continue with more detailed studies in those areas that are considered a priority to carry out the threat analysis and risk calculation.

Resumen Este trabajo tiene el objetivo de proponer y analizar factores para la construcción de un índice de vulnerabilidad a la contaminación de acuíferos kársticos costeros urbanizados. Debido a las altas modificaciones antrópica de los territorios, se tomó como área de estudio la ciudad de Playa del Carmen, Quintana Roo. Se abordaron cuatro factores: relieve, clima, ascenso del nivel de mar y el uso de suelo. Para el relieve se identificaron las depresiones utilizando datos LiDAR del INEGI. El factor clima se trabajó con datos meteorológicos de CONAGUA, empleando el Índice Modificado de Fournier. El ascenso del mar se recreó con proyecciones del aumento del mar y se consideró el nivel piezométrico y la distancia a la línea de costa. Finalmente, para el uso de suelo, se consideró la zonificación secundaria del Programa de Desarrollo Urbano y el coeficiente de ocupación del suelo. A cada factor se asignó una diferenciación de vulnerabilidad, la cual define la susceptibilidad del territorio a la contaminación. Los resultados para el relieve, muestran una mayor vulnerabilidad en el uso de suelo turístico residencial y mixto, con una frecuencia de 30 a 37 depresiones, predominando las dolinas y dolinas-úvalas. Para el clima se identificó la zona vulnerable al sureste de la ciudad, para el ascenso del mar se encontró en el primer kilómetro con respecto a la línea de costa, afectando el 20% de las depresiones. Los usos de suelo con mayor vulnerabilidad fueron de uso comercial, turismo residencial, habitacional de alta densidad y uso mixto.

Abstract The aim of this work is to propose and analyse factors for the construction of an index of vulnerability to contamination of urbanised coastal karst aquifers. Due to the high anthropic modifications of the territories, the city of Playa del Carmen, Quintana Roo, was taken as the study area. Four factors were addressed: relief, climate, sea level rise and land use. For relief, depressions were identified using LiDAR data from INEGI. The climate factor was worked with meteorological data from CONAGUA, using the Modified Fournier Index. Sea rise was recreated with sea rise projections and the piezometric level and distance to the coastline were considered. Finally, for land use, the secondary zoning of the Urban Development Programme and the land use coefficient were considered. Each factor was assigned a vulnerability differentiation, which defines the susceptibility of the territory to pollution. The results for relief show a greater vulnerability in residential and mixed tourist land use, with a frequency of 30 to 37 depressions, predominantly sinkholes and sinkholes -uvalas. For climate, the vulnerable zone was identified to the southeast of the city; for sea rise, it was found in the first kilometre with respect to the coastline, affecting 20% of the depressions. The most vulnerable land uses were commercial use, residential tourism, high-density residential and mixed use.

Resumen Debido al cambio climático se está produciendo una migración significativa de poblaciones de peces, y la normativa e instrumentos económico-jurídicos internacionales existentes no están adaptados para gestionarla. La gobernanza socioeconómica y normativa actual sobre el presente asunto es insuficiente en vista de los conflictos surgidos e indicios de disputas futuras. En aras de evitar, reducir, atenuar y/o dirimir controversias de este tipo, y preservar tanto las relaciones internacionales como las poblaciones de peces, se propone establecer un nuevo instrumento de pesca holístico bajo la CNUDM. El instrumento debería establecer los principios básicos que rigen la ordenación de la migración de peces inducida por el cambio climático desde una perspectiva socioeconómica y jurídica. Asimismo, cubriría tanto las zonas económicas exclusivas como alta mar. En particular, debería fomentar una integración mayor e inmediata de avances científicos relevantes en la política pesquera; mayor flexibilidad en el reconocimiento e intercambio de derechos de pesca; un enfoque combinado ascendente y descendente de la ordenación pesquera; la creación de un comité mundial de supervisión (compuesto por miembros de la FAO, el ICES, la OCDE y, cuando se trata -indirectamente- de subsidios, la OMC, y el recurso a ITLOS y al arbitraje internacional para resolver disputas. El último concepto principal (cambios en las subvenciones a la industria pesquera para abordar la sobrecapacidad y la sobrepesca) se está abordando actualmente a nivel de la OMC a través de un proyecto de texto y debería tenerse en cuenta en el nuevo instrumento.

Résumé En raison du changement climatique, il existe une migration importante des poissons pour laquelle les normes et outils juridiques et économiques actuels sont inadaptés. Divers différends dans le passé, et une liste de facteurs indiquant qu’il y aura une augmentation de tels différends à l’avenir, soulignent l’insuffisance de la gouvernance socio-économique et des normes juridiques sur cette question. Pour éviter, réduire, atténuer et/ou résoudre de futurs différends de cette nature, et ainsi préserver les relations internationales autant que les stocks halieutiques concernés, un nouvel instrument international holistique de pêche, adopté dans le cadre de la CNUDM, est nécessaire. Cet instrument devrait énoncer les principes de base régissant la gestion de la migration des poissons induite par le changement climatique d’un point de vue socio-économique et juridique. Le nouvel instrument couvrirait, à des degrés divers, à la fois les zones économiques exclusives et la haute mer. En particulier, il devrait prévoir une utilisation accrue et plus immédiate des découvertes scientifiques dans l’élaboration des politiques; une plus grande flexibilité dans la reconnaissance et l’échange des droits de pêche; une approche combinée ascendante et descendante de la gestion de la pêche; et le recours à un comité de surveillance international (composé de membres de la FAO, du CIEM, de l’OCDE et, lorsque des subventions sont -indirectement- impliquées, de l’OMC), du TIDM et à l’arbitrage international pour régler les différends. Le dernier concept principal (les modifications des subventions à l’industrie de la pêche pour lutter contre la surcapacité et la surpêche) est actuellement traité au niveau de l’OMC et devrait être pris en compte dans le nouvel instrument.

Abstract Due to climate change, a significant migration of fish is taking place in respect of which current legal and economic norms and instruments are ill equipped to manage. Various disputes in the past, and a list of factors indicating that there shall be more such disputes in the future, underscore the inadequacy of socio-economic governance and legal norms on this issue. To avoid, reduce, mitigate and/or resolve future disputes of this nature, and thus preserve international relations as much as the relevant fish stocks, a new international, holistic fisheries instrument, adopted under UNCLOS, is needed. This instrument should set out basic principles governing the management of climate change-induced fish migration from a socio-economic and legal perspective. The new instrument would cover, to a varying degree, both exclusive economic zones and the high seas. In particular, it should provide for increased and more immediate use of scientific findings in policy making; greater flexibility in the recognition and exchange of rights to fish; a combined bottom-up and top-down approach to fisheries management; and recourse to an international supervisory committee (composed of members from the FAO, ICES, the OECD and, where subsidies are [indirectly] involved, the WTO), ITLOS and to international arbitration to resolve disputes. The final main concept (changes to fishing industry subsidies to address overcapacity and overfishing) is currently being addressed at WTO level and should be taken into account in the new instrument.

Abstract Sea level rise is analyzed based on the average level of high tides registered for the Caribbean region of Costa Rica. The present study utilized conceptual models, field observations and field measurements, which provide sea level data and its respective rise, for the modelling of possible scenarios for four different years: 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. Scenarios were developed to simulate the behavior of the relative sea level in the next 100 years for the localities of Cahuita and Moín, both in the province of Limón, Costa Rica. Astronomical tidal levels are studied from tidal predictions. The rise in sea level in the coming years due to global warming is, according to ECLAC scenarios/predictions CEPAL (2012, p. 24), 3 mm per year for the Caribbean coast in general and is used as a basis for the creation of the different combinations and generation of the tidal levels represented in the present article. Results show flood levels for each considered year and indicate that both Moín and Cahuita could be flooded by the year 2100.

Resumen Se analiza el aumento del nivel del mar tomando como base el nivel promedio de mareas altas para la región Caribe de Costa Rica. Este estudio se realizó a partir de modelos conceptuales, observaciones y mediciones efectuadas en campo, que presentan un nivel del mar y su respectivo ascenso para cuatro escenarios de acuerdo con los siguientes años: 2030, 2050, 2070 y 2100. Se elaboran escenarios para simular el comportamiento del nivel del mar relativo en los próximos 100 años para las localidades de Cahuita y Moín en la provincia de Limón. Se estudian los niveles de mareas astronómicas a partir de predicciones mareales. El aumento del nivel del mar en los próximos años por calentamiento global es, según los escenarios de la CEPAL (2012, p. 24), 3 mm por año para la costa del Caribe en general y se utiliza como base para crear las distintas combinaciones y generar los niveles mareográficos representados en este artículo. Los resultados muestran los niveles de inundación para cada uno de los años en las localidades de Moín y Cahuita e indica que ambas localidades podrían ser inundadas para el año 2100.