Abstract Climate change crisis is a global concern for the humanity and for achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). One of the solutions proposed is family planning which plays a dual role. Firstly, family planning must ensure gender equality (SDG 5) and good health (SDG 3) that “strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries” (SDG 13.1). Secondly, it would make it possible to contribute to the reduction in population growth, which will turn lead to a reduction in the levels of greenhouse gas emissions. This article analyzes this dual role to determine whether family planning could be an ethical solution for climate change and for contributing to sustainable development for a better future of humanity.

Resumen La crisis del cambio climático es una preocupación mundial para la humanidad y para la consecución de los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS). Una de las soluciones propuestas es la planificación familiar, que desempeña un doble papel. En primer lugar, la planificación familiar debe garantizar la igualdad de género (ODS 5) y una buena salud (ODS 3) que “refuerce la resiliencia y la capacidad de adaptación a los riesgos relacionados con el clima y los desastres naturales en todos los países” (ODS 13.1). En segundo lugar, permitiría contribuir a la reducción del crecimiento demográfico, lo que a su vez conllevaría una reducción de los niveles de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Este artículo analiza esta doble función para determinar si la planificación familiar podría ser una solución ética para el cambio climático y para contribuir al desarrollo sostenible para un futuro mejor de la humanidad.

Academics from South African Universities have recently been bound to possess digital skills for curriculum delivery due to the lessons learned from the COVID-19 era. Universities have implemented various interventions to enhance digital skills in academics, which include but are not limited to training workshops, organised webinars, and seminars. Irrespective of these interventions, some academics still lack the digital skills to deliver effective digital curricula. The primary aim of the research is to develop other methods to address the shortage of digital skills among scholars. This research is based on a three-year qualitative interpretive study carried out at a university in South Africa, exploring a scenario where academics share their experiences on utilising digital platforms for teaching and learning following the COVID-19 pandemic. Data was generated purposefully and conveniently by sampling thirty-two academics from the school of education. The methods used for data generation included e-reflective activities, Zoom group discussions, and semi-structured interviews conducted one-on-one via WhatsApp. After thematic analysis, findings show that academics' digital background becomes the barrier to having the necessary digital skills for digital curriculum delivery. Hence, most of them were driven by informal skills for social needs and personal digital skills for individual needs at the expense of formal digital skills for discipline needs. With universities in developing countries still becoming victims of student protests, natural disasters, and other challenges, alternatives are being sought to accommodate the transition from face-to-face to online or hybrid curriculum delivery modes.

Abstract The hotel industry faces a series of challenges and crisis situations that can have significant repercussions on its operations, profitability, and reputation. From natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes to economic crises and public health situations like pandemics, these contingencies can cause significant disruptions in hotel operations and affect guest demand. It is essential to understand how crises impact hotel facilities and what measures can be taken to mitigate negative effects and achieve a rapid recovery. The main objective of this research is to assess the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on the Brisas Guardalavaca hotel through a procedure that collects and analyzes relevant data to evaluate the direct and indirect impacts of the crisis on the hotel and identify its main strengths and weaknesses in this regard. Indeed, the results indicate a negative impact caused by the pandemic and identify areas for implementing improvement actions.

Resumen La industria hotelera se enfrenta a una serie de desafíos y situaciones de crisis que pueden tener repercusiones significativas en su funcionamiento, rentabilidad y reputación. Desde desastres naturales como terremotos y huracanes, hasta crisis económicas y situaciones de salud pública como pandemias, estas contingencias pueden causar interrupciones significativas en las operaciones hoteleras y afectar la demanda de los huéspedes. Es esencial comprender cómo las crisis impactan a las instalaciones hoteleras y qué medidas se pueden tomar para mitigar los efectos negativos y lograr una rápida recuperación. El objetivo principal de esta investigación es evaluar los impactos provocados por la crisis del COVID-19 en el hotel Brisas Guardalavaca a través de un procedimiento que recopila y analiza datos relevantes para evaluar los impactos directos e indirectos de la crisis en el hotel e identificar las principales fortalezas y debilidades de la instalación en este sentido. Precisamente, los resultados arrojan un impacto negativo provocado por la pandemia e identifica áreas para la implementación de acciones de mejora.

RESUMEN El estudio explora la vulnerabilidad sísmica en instituciones públicas del cantón El Empalme, Ecuador, enfocándose en el impacto en la operatividad y gestión económica ante desastres. Frente al desafío de una respuesta limitada a terremotos, se propone como objetivo el evaluar cómo la vulnerabilidad estructural y el deterioro de infraestructuras económicas comprometen la eficiencia en situaciones de emergencia, incluyendo el análisis económico de las pérdidas humanas causadas por esta problemática. Mediante una metodología mixta, que incluye encuestas basadas en recomendaciones del Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo, se busca identificar áreas críticas para mejorar la capacidad de respuesta y evaluación ante desastres. Los resultados subrayan la necesidad urgente de fortalecer la preparación y resiliencia, promoviendo el desarrollo de políticas y estrategias para una gestión de riesgo más efectiva y la protección de la población e infraestructura frente a eventos sísmicos.

ABSTRACT The study explores seismic vulnerability in public institutions in the canton El Empalme, Ecuador, focusing on its impact on the operability and economic management in the face of disasters. Faced with the challenge of a limited response to earthquakes, the objective is to evaluate how structural vulnerability and the deterioration of economic infrastructure compromise efficiency in emergency situations, including the economic analysis of the human losses caused by this problem. Through a mixed methodology, which includes surveys based on recommendations of the United Nations Development Program, it seeks to identify critical areas to improve disaster response and assessment capacity. The results underscore the urgent need to strengthen preparedness and resilience, promoting the development of policies and strategies for more effective risk management and the protection of the population and infrastructure against seismic events.

ABSTRACT Against the background of a sharp decline in soybean planting, rising imports, and natural disasters in China, finding appropriate distribution areas for soybean has become a matter of urgency so that soybean planting policies can be formulated and soybean food security ensured. Among the numerous ecological niche models, the most suitable one for predicting potential distribution areas of soybean in the frigid region must be identified. Based on 65 soybean occurrence points and nine environmental variables, three ecological niche models, MaxEnt, BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN, were applied to the prediction of potential distribution areas for soybean. According to the analytical comparison, the three models predicted the potential distribution of soybean and, specifically, MaxEnt, stood out above the other two models as regards predicting the soybean distribution (Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, AUC = 0.916, Kappa = 0.685). The potential distribution areas (from low suitability to high suitability) predicted by MaxEnt was the largest and accounted for 59.5 % of the total area. The potential suitable distribution area of soybean was mainly concentrated in relatively flat terrain. The Sanjiang Plain and the Northeast Plain accounted for 9.4 % of the total area in the frigid region and are highly suitability for soybean. At the same time, annual mean temperature, elevation and Apr solar radiation were the key determinants affecting soybeans’ habitat. On the whole, the selection of ecological niche models and the prediction of soybean potential distribution can provide an essential reference for soybean planting and planning. Moreover, it would be a reliable example for the subsequent related research on soybean habitats. imports China ensured identified 6 variables BIOCLIM DOMAIN comparison specifically Receiver curve 0916 0 916 0.916 0.685. 0685 0.685 . 685 0.685) from 595 59 5 59. terrain 94 9 4 9. time temperature soybeans habitat whole planning Moreover habitats 091 91 0.91 068 0.68 68 09 0.9 06 0.6 0.

Abstract This article draws on the history of Mingú, a neighborhood located at the center of the activities of a long-standing mining company in Nova Lima, Minas Gerais, Brazil, and discusses the interrelation of the production of disasters over time with the formation of a socio-spatial group. The narrative is informed by fragments of everyday life that seek to highlight trends and patterns of broader processes, and which resonate beyond the singularity of the particular context presented. Three phases in the history of Mingú are analyzed, revealing the continuity between extractivism and neoextractivism and the notion that disasters are not restricted to natural events, isolated in time and space. In this historical process, the constitution of the group is understood by the way its everyday practices take place within an unstable context, permeated by expropriation and by the difficulty of socio-spatial consciousness and autonomy. longstanding long standing Lima Gerais Brazil sociospatial socio spatial processes presented analyzed events space process autonomy

Resumo O artigo recorre à história do Mingú, bairro situado no centro das atividades de uma longeva empresa de mineração, em Nova Lima, Minas Gerais, para discutir a inter-relação entre a produção dos desastres ao longo do tempo e a formação de um grupo sócio-espacial. A narrativa é informada por fragmentos do cotidiano, buscando evidenciar tendências e conjuntos de processos mais amplos, indo além da singularidade do contexto apresentado. Assim, são analisados três momentos da história do Mingú, revelando a continuidade entre extrativismo e neoextrativismo e a noção de que os desastres não se restringem a eventos naturais, isolados no tempo e no espaço. Nesse processo histórico, a constituição do grupo é entendida pela forma como suas práticas cotidianas se inserem num contexto instável, permeado pela expropriação e pela dificuldade de consciência sócio-espacial e autonomia. Mingú mineração Lima Gerais interrelação inter relação sócioespacial. sócioespacial sócio espacial. espacial cotidiano amplos apresentado Assim naturais espaço histórico instável autonomia

Heavy metals have been widely discussed as a significant cause of environmental disasters in recent decades. One of the main focuses has been exploring agents and mechanisms capable of removing these metals from nature. Under this perspective, xanthates have been studied as sequestering agents of these metals in aqueous environments. In this theoretical study, complexes of cadmium(II) and mercury(II), with different coordination modes and geometric isomers of the xanthate ligands (n-propyl, n-butyl, and n-pentyl xanthates), were evaluated using density functional theory. To verify the versatility of coordination modes of the xanthates, monodentate and bidentate structures were optimized. For these compounds, structural, thermochemical, and electronic parameters were studied. The thermochemical results showed that all complexes are formed through exothermic and spontaneous processes. Electronic analysis showed that the mercury(II) complexes have a higher covalent character of the Hg-S bond, in contrast with the cadmium(II) complexes, which exhibited a higher ionic character of the Cd-S bond. Through the analysis of the natural bond orbitals, the Lewis acid-base nature of these complexes was confirmed and corroborated by the softness calculations, with the participation of the p orbitals of the sulfur and s orbitals of the metal centers. decades perspective environments study cadmiumII cadmium II cadmium(II mercuryII, mercuryII mercury , npropyl, npropyl n propyl, propyl (n-propyl nbutyl, nbutyl butyl, butyl n-butyl npentyl pentyl xanthates) theory optimized compounds structural processes mercury(II HgS Hg S CdS Cd acidbase acid base calculations centers

Abstract In Mexico, natural disasters related to sediments, such as landslides, landslides and alluviums, are generally induced by anthropogenic activities such as road construction, which modify the vegetation cover, soil characteristics, root density and soil stability. slopes. The objective of this research was to evaluate the mechanical and chemical characteristics of roots of tree forest species (J. deppeana, Q. sideroxyla, P. durangensis y P. cooperi) present in slope cuts of the main road that connects the urban area with the rural area of the municipality of Pueblo Nuevo, Durango. 30 root samples per species were collected and divided into three diameter categories (CD) (CD I = 0.1-3.0 mm, CD II = 3.1-6.0 mm and CD III = 6.1-10 mm). The mechanical properties (maximum breaking force [Fmax], tensile strength [Ts] and elastic modulus [Eroot]) were analyzed with an Instron SATEC universal machine at a constant speed of 10 mm/min. The amount of cellulose, lignin and hemicellulose was determined using the Van-Soest method. The results showed significant differences between species for all the properties analyzed. Particularly J. deppeana presented higher values of Fmax, Ts and Eroot of 402.80 N, 34.06 N mm2, 1283.45 N mm2, as well as the contents of cellulose (40.29%), hemicellulose (12.57%) and lignin (37.63%). The mechanical and chemical characterization of the roots of the evaluated forest species provides important information that can be considered in slope maintenance and rehabilitation activities.

Resumen En México los desastres naturales relacionados con sedimentos, como los desprendimientos, deslizamientos y aluviones, generalmente son inducidos por actividades antropogénicas como la construcción de caminos, que modifican, la cubierta vegetal, características del suelo, la densidad de las raíces y la estabilidad de los taludes. El objetivo de esta investigación fue evaluar las características mecánicas y químicas de raíces de especies forestales arbóreas (J. deppeana, Q. sideroxyla, P. durangensis y P. cooperi) presentes en cortes de talud de la carretera principal que conecta la zona urbana con la zona rural del municipio de Pueblo Nuevo, Durango. Se colectaron 30 muestras de raíces por especie y fueron divididas en tres categorías diamétricas (CD) (CD I = 0.1-3.0 mm, CD II = 3.1-6.0 mm y CD III = 6.1-10 mm). Las propiedades mecánicas (fuerza máxima de quiebre [Fmax], fuerza de tensión [Ts] y módulo de elasticidad [Eroot]) se analizaron con una maquina universal Instron SATEC a una velocidad constante de 10 mm/min. La cantidad de celulosa, lignina y hemicelulosa se determinó por medio del método de Van-Soest. Los resultados mostraron diferencias significativas entre especies para todas las propiedades analizadas. Particularmente J. deppeana presentó valores más altos de Fmax, Ts y Eroot de 402.80 N, 34.06 N mm2, 1283.45N mm2, así como de los contenidos de celulosa (40.29%), hemicelulosa (12.57%) y lignina (37.63%). La caracterización mecánica y química de las raíces de las especies forestales evaluadas provee información importante que puede ser considerada en actividades de mantenimiento y rehabilitación de taludes.

ABSTRACT Natural disasters often affect communities that become unable to access vital items. Not infrequently, the profile and scale of disasters require the delivery of various types of material and vital items, gaining prominence in these contexts the launching cargo by aircraft. This study presents a mathematical ballistic launch model that incorporates the main random variables that influence the trajectory of the load, making it possible to conduct analyses to improve the accuracy of launchings. In this way, Monte Carlo Simulations were utilized to investigate the trajectory deviations as a function of certain combinations of controlled factors in the model. Based on these findings, a Response Surface method was implemented, enabling the development of flight profiles that minimize load deviations from a desired impact point on the ground. items infrequently aircraft launchings way findings implemented ground

ABSTRACT Brazil stands out as one of the largest mineral producers in the world. However, this economically important activity also causes significant damage to the environment. The disposal of mining waste in dams gained great repercussions after the disasters in Mariana, in 2015, and Brumadinho, in 2019, that the need to find a new use for these materials arose. The main objective of the research was to evaluate the addition of iron ore waste to materials used in the base and sub-base layers of road pavements. The results of the mechanical tests demonstrated that it is technically feasible to introduce iron ore waste into the soil-cement mixtures used in the base and sub-base layers. It was found that a minimum of 6% cement in soil-cement mixtures for the base layer, and 5% and 4% for the sub-base layer, are sufficient for the addition of waste. This indicates that waste can be an excellent alternative to reduce cement consumption. This incorporation could reduce the consumption of natural resources, offer an alternative destination for mining waste and even reduce the costs of paving works. With this research, we seek an intelligent and sustainable solution to the impacts caused by mining tailings in Brazil. world However environment Mariana 2015 Brumadinho 2019 arose subbase sub pavements soilcement soil 6 layer 5 4 resources works 201 20 2

RESUMO O Brasil se destaca como um dos maiores produtores de minérios do mundo. No entanto, essa atividade tão importante economicamente também acarreta danos significativos ao meio ambiente. O problema da disposição dos rejeitos de mineração em barragens ganhou grande repercussão após os desastres em Mariana, em 2015, e Brumadinho, em 2019, que evidenciou a necessidade de encontrar um novo uso para esses materiais. A pesquisa teve como principal objetivo avaliar a adição de rejeitos de minério de ferro em materiais utilizados nas camadas de pavimentos rodoviários, na produção de solo-cimento. Os resultados dos ensaios mecânicos mostraram que é tecnicamente viável adicionar rejeito de minério de ferro nas misturas de solo-cimento, sendo que, para camada de base, foi encontrado o teor mínimo de 6% de cimento, e de 5% e 4% para a camada de sub-base. Isso indica que o rejeito pode ser uma excelente alternativa para reduzir o consumo de cimento. Além disso, essa incorporação poderia reduzir o consumo de recursos naturais, oferecer um destino alternativo para os rejeitos de mineração e até mesmo diminuir os custos das obras de pavimentação. Com essa pesquisa, busca-se uma solução inteligente e sustentável para os impactos causados pelos rejeitos de mineração no Brasil. mundo entanto ambiente Mariana 2015 Brumadinho 2019 rodoviários solocimento. solocimento solo cimento solo-cimento solocimento, base 6 5 4 subbase. subbase sub base. sub-base disso naturais pavimentação buscase busca 201 20 2

RESUMO Objetivo: produzir tecnologia propulsora de segurança do cuidado na atenção hospitalar em situações catastróficas. Método: pesquisa de natureza aplicada realizada em um hospital público situado na região centro-oeste, Brasil, entre os meses de setembro de 2020 a agosto de 2021, por meio da aplicação da Soft Design Science Research, em sete etapas: delineamento do problema, com análise descritiva de indicadores hospitalares; explicitação do problema como um conjunto específico de requisitos, mediante aplicação de escalas com 108 profissionais de saúde e 75 de enfermagem, e análise descritiva e inferencial; generalização do problema, através de revisão de escopo para sistematização de uma classe de problemas; estruturação dos componentes da solução por meio de workshop orientado pelo design thinking; comparação entre o problema específico e requisitos gerais para alinhamento da solução; definição da solução; construção da solução. Resultados: a imersão no problema evidenciou desfechos que anunciam o agravamento da condição de saúde dos pacientes e percepção negativa de trabalhadores e gestores em relação ao clima de segurança em situações catastróficas, acentuado pela insatisfação da equipe de enfermagem com o suporte oferecido pela organização. A projeção deste cenário foi essencial para sistematização de soluções potencializadoras de segurança já produzidas com esta finalidade, e para a realização de experimentações orientadas pelo design, em alinhamento, estruturação, prototipagem e iteração do protótipo construído. Conclusão: produziu-se um Time de Resposta Rápida que, em situações catastróficas, permite intervir frente ao agravamento de condições clínicas do paciente, o que favorece a ampliação da taxa de sobrevida e é propulsor de segurança. Objetivo catastróficas Método centrooeste, centrooeste centro oeste, oeste centro-oeste Brasil 202 2021 Research etapas hospitalares 10 7 inferencial problemas thinking Resultados organização finalidade construído Conclusão produziuse produziu se paciente 20 1 2

RESUMEN Objetivo: producir tecnología que promueva la seguridad del cuidado en la atención hospitalaria en situaciones catastróficas. Método: investigación aplicada realizada en un hospital público ubicado en la región Centro-Oeste de Brasil, entre los meses de septiembre de 2020 y agosto de 2021, mediante la aplicación de la Soft Design Science Research, en siete etapas: perfilamiento del problema, con análisis descriptivo de indicadores hospitalarios; explicación del problema como un conjunto específico de requisitos, mediante la aplicación de escalas con 108 profesionales de la salud y 75 profesionales de enfermería, y análisis descriptivo e inferencial; generalización del problema, mediante revisión de alcance para sistematizar una clase de problemas; estructuración de los componentes de la solución a través de un taller guiado por el design thinking; comparación entre el problema específico y los requisitos generales para alinear la solución; definición de la solución; construcción de la solución. Resultados: la inmersión en el problema reveló resultados que anuncian el empeoramiento de las condiciones de salud de los pacientes y la percepción negativa de trabajadores y gestores sobre el clima de seguridad en situaciones catastróficas, acentuada por la insatisfacción del equipo de enfermería con el soporte ofrecido por la organización. La proyección de este escenario fue fundamental para sistematizar las soluciones que potencien la seguridad, ya producidas para este fin, y para realizar experimentos orientados al diseño, alineación, estructuración, prototipado e iteración del prototipo construido. Conclusión: se formó un Equipo de Respuesta Rápida que, en situaciones catastróficas, permite intervenir ante el empeoramiento de las condiciones clínicas del paciente, lo que favorece el aumento de la tasa de supervivencia y brinda seguridad. Objetivo catastróficas Método CentroOeste Centro Oeste Brasil 202 2021 Research etapas hospitalarios 10 7 inferencial problemas thinking Resultados organización fin diseño alineación construido Conclusión paciente 20 1 2

ABSTRACT Objective: to produce technology that promotes safe hospital care in catastrophic situations. Method: an applied study carried out in a public hospital located in Brazil's Midwest region, between September 2020 and August 2021, using Soft Design Science Research in seven stages: outlining the problem, with descriptive analysis of hospital indicators; explaining the problem as a specific set of requirements, through the application of scales with 108 health professionals and 75 nursing staff, and descriptive and inferential analysis; generalizing the problem, through a scope review to systematize a class of problems; structuring the components of the solution through a workshop guided by design thinking; comparing the specific problem and general requirements to align the solution; defining the solution; building the solution. Results: immersion in the problem revealed outcomes that heralded the worsening of patients' health conditions and the negative perception of workers and managers regarding the safety climate in catastrophic situations, accentuated by the nursing team's dissatisfaction with the support offered by the organization. The projection of this scenario was essential for the systematization of security-enhancing solutions already produced for this purpose, and for carrying out design-oriented experiments in alignment, structuring, prototyping and iteration of the prototype built. Conclusion: a Rapid Response Team has been set up which, in catastrophic situations, makes it possible to intervene when the patient's clinical condition worsens, which helps to increase the survival rate and promotes safety. Objective situations Method Brazils Brazil s region 202 2021 stages indicators 10 7 staff problems thinking Results patients teams team organization securityenhancing security enhancing purpose designoriented oriented alignment built Conclusion patient worsens 20 1 2

RESUMEN Fundamento: los desastres inciden en numerosas causas de muerte a nivel mundial; la preparación para prevenirlos, desde la extensión universitaria, se instituye como una necesidad del vínculo universidad-sociedad. Objetivo: diseñar una estrategia educativa para facilitar el incremento de los conocimientos sobre reducción de riesgos de desastres en la población perteneciente a la circunscripción No. 42, del Consejo Popular Virginia, municipio Santa Clara, en Villa Clara. Métodos: se realizó un estudio de desarrollo entre los meses febrero-julio 2023, en la carrera de Licenciatura en Cultura Física en la Universidad Central “Marta Abreu” de Las Villas. Se aplicaron métodos teóricos para la fundamentación de la investigación y empíricos para la recogida de la información. Resultados: algunas viviendas no tienen buenas condiciones constructivas, varias poseen riesgos de inundaciones y peligro de caídas de árboles; en los locales visitados no se han identificado estas situaciones ni existían propagandas sobre riesgos de desastres; se identificaron baja percepción de riesgos e insuficientes conocimientos sobre medidas de protección y recuperación en caso de desastres naturales, sanitarios y/o tecnológicos entre la población estudiada; por lo que se diseñó y aplicó una estrategia educativa comunitaria, mediante la cual se elevaron estos resultados. Conclusiones: la estrategia, valorada positivamente por criterios de especialistas para su aplicación, fue efectiva porque incrementó los conocimientos sobre la prevención de riesgos de desastres en la población, e implicó a los estudiantes universitarios en el vínculo universidad-sociedad como demandan el Estado y el Gobierno para el mejoramiento de la calidad de vida de los habitantes cubanos.

ABSTRACT Background: disasters have a great incidence in numerous causes of death worldwide; Preparation to prevent them, from university extension, is established as a necessity of the university-society link. Objective: design an educational strategy to facilitate the increase in knowledge about disaster risk reduction in the population belonging to demarcation No. 42, of the Virginia people´s Council, Santa Clara municipality, in Villa Clara. Methods: a development study was carried out from February to July 2023, in the Bachelor's degree in Physical Culture at the “Marta Abreu” Central University of Las Villas. Theoretical methods were applied to support the research and empirical methods to collect information. Results: some houses do not have good construction conditions, several have risks of flooding and danger of falling trees; In the places visited, these situations have not been identified nor were there any advertisements about disaster risks; Low risk perception and insufficient knowledge about protection and recovery measures in the event of natural, health and/or technological disasters were identified among the population studied; Therefore, a community educational strategy was designed and applied, through which these results were raised. Conclusions: the strategy, positively valued by specialist criteria for its application, was effective because it increased knowledge about disaster risk prevention in the population, and involved university students in the university-society link as demanded by the State and the Government to improve the quality of life of Cuban inhabitants.

ABSTRACT The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) is an atmospheric phenomenon typical of summertime where a band of nebulosity causes intense or persistent rainfall in many regions of Brazil. SACZ episodes can be responsible for many natural disasters. Besides, the impacts of rainfall on water availability and consequently on the energy sector are extensive. The main objective of this study was to investigate the implementation of the SACZ index as an objective forecasting tool using input data from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. Initially, we compared the index with the SACZ events identified by the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC ) from 2017 to 2021. Results showed that the index represented all events identified SACZs by CPTEC. Finally, we used data from the GFS 0.25 Degree from 2017 to 2021 to calculate Accuracy, Probability of detection, and False alarm ratio to evaluate the SACZ index as a prediction tool. Three thresholds are defined for the binary classification of a possible SACZ event. Results showed that above the most sensitive threshold (h1), within 10 days in advance, the sign of a possible SACZ can be detected. For the intermediate threshold (h2), a forecast of 96 h can detect a sign. For the most specific threshold (h3), the index can detect the event within 72 h in advance with a probability of detection of almost 90%. The SACZ index proved to be an efficient tool for detecting the dynamics of the phenomenon and can be used to assist operationally and in decision-making.

RESUMEN La Zona de Convergencia del Atlántico Sur (SACZ, por su sigla en inglés) es un fenómeno atmosférico típico del verano en América del Sur, donde una banda de nebulosidad provoca lluvias intensas o persistentes en muchas regiones de Brasil. Los episodios de SACZ pueden ser responsables de muchos desastres naturales. Además, los impactos de las precipitaciones sobre la disponibilidad de agua y, en consecuencia, sobre el sector energético son amplios. El objetivo principal de este estudio fue investigar la implementación del índice SACZ como una herramienta de pronóstico objetivo utilizando como entrada datos del Sistema Global de Predicción (GFS). Inicialmente se comparó el índice con eventos SACZ identificados por el Centro de Pronóstico del Tiempo y Estudios Climáticos (CPTEC) de 2017 a 2021. Los resultados mostraron que el índice representaba todos los eventos que el CPTEC identificó como SACZ . Finalmente, se utilizaron datos del Pronóstico Global GFS de 0.25º de 2017 a 2021 para calcular la Precisión, la Probabilidad de detección y el Índice de falsas alarmas con el fin de evaluar el índice SACZ como herramienta de predicción. Se definieron tres umbrales para una clasificación binaria de un posible evento SACZ. Los resultados mostraron que por encima del umbral más sensible (h1) se puede detectar el signo de una posible SACZ con 10 días de antelación. Para el umbral intermedio (h2), una previsión de 96 h puede detectar una señal. Para el umbral más específico (h3), el índice puede detectar el evento con 72 h de anticipación con una probabilidad de detección de casi 90 %. La aplicación del índice SACZ demostró ser una herramienta eficaz para detectar la dinámica del fenómeno, pudiendo utilizarse para auxiliar en la operación y toma de decisiones.

Abstract Tsunamis, despite their rarity, are among the deadliest natural disasters, inflicting catastrophic damage on both coastal and inland regions. Given their highly site-specific impact, a comprehensive understanding of tsunami wave flow characteristics is crucial for effective tsunami preparedness and for safeguarding civil engineering structures. This study investigates the formation and progression of tsunami bores as they transition into surges near the shore. We employed a wave-flume experimental approach, with a specific focus on the Malaysian coastline. Experiments took place in a wave flume with a length of 40 m and a platform designed to replicate the gentle slopes commonly found in Malaysian coastal areas vulnerable to tsunamis. The primary focus lied in measuring key flow parameters, including flow depths and velocities near the shore. Wet bed bores were marked by a sudden rise in water depth and considerable air entrainment in the front region. As these waves transformed into dry bed surges, the front slope became gentler, and aeration diminished, while peak velocities increased. Additionally, the study also delves into the relations between flow depth and velocity concerning Froude numbers and momentum flux. The outcomes contribute significantly to global initiatives aimed at improving coastal resilience against tsunamis. Tsunamis rarity disasters regions sitespecific site impact structures shore waveflume approach coastline 4 tsunamis parameters region gentler diminished increased Additionally flux

Resumo A resiliência da mobilidade urbana é um tema emergente, com a maioria dos estudos focando em desastres naturais ou distúrbios técnicos. No entanto, há uma lacuna na compreensão da resiliência e da vulnerabilidade da mobilidade urbana diante de ameaças econômicas e políticas de transporte inadequadas, principalmente em países em desenvolvimento, como o Brasil, caracterizados por desigualdade social e segregação urbana. Este estudo lança luz sobre a questão das desigualdades e da segregação urbana, com o objetivo de identificar as áreas mais vulneráveis e resilientes do Rio de Janeiro, no caso de uma crise econômica. Avaliamos a resiliência e a vulnerabilidade do sistema de transporte público usando indicadores de acessibilidade comumente usados, aplicando lógica difusa a dados de 160 distritos. Consideramos um cenário sem o programa de subsídio tarifário. Os resultados indicam que os distritos com melhor acesso a sistemas de transporte de alta capacidade e oportunidades de emprego apresentam níveis mais elevados de resiliência e menor vulnerabilidade. No entanto, o estudo também revela desigualdades socioespaciais, com valores de resiliência tendendo a ser maiores nas áreas costeiras e nos distritos centrais de negócios, exacerbando as disparidades. É evidente que enfrentar as desigualdades urbanas e a segregação requer não apenas melhorar os tempos de viagem e os sistemas de transporte, mas também considerar o impacto econômico nas populações vulneráveis e promover oportunidades de emprego descentralizadas. emergente técnicos entanto inadequadas desenvolvimento Brasil Janeiro econômica usados 16 tarifário socioespaciais negócios disparidades descentralizadas 1

Abstract Resilience of urban mobility is an emerging topic, with most studies focusing on natural disasters or technical disturbances. However, there is a gap in understanding the resilience and vulnerability of urban mobility in the face of economic threats and inadequate transport policies, particularly in developing countries such as Brazil, characterized by social inequality and urban segregation. This study sheds light on the issue of urban inequalities and segregation, aiming to identify the most vulnerable and resilient areas of Rio de Janeiro in the event of an economic crisis. We assessed the resilience and vulnerability of the public transport system with commonly used accessibility indicators, applying fuzzy logic to data from 160 districts. We considered a scenario without the fare subsidy program. The results indicate that districts with better access to high-capacity transport systems and job opportunities exhibit higher levels of resilience and lower vulnerability. However, the study also uncovers socio-spatial inequalities, with resilience values tending to be higher in coastal areas and central business districts, exacerbating disparities. Addressing urban inequalities and segregation requires not only improving travel times and transportation systems but also considering the economic impact on vulnerable populations and promoting decentralized employment opportunities. topic disturbances However policies Brazil crisis indicators 16 program highcapacity high capacity sociospatial socio spatial disparities 1