RESUMO Objetivo: Avaliar a sazonalidade da bronquiolite aguda no Brasil durante a temporada 2020–2022 e compará-la com a das temporadas anteriores. Métodos: Os dados de incidência de internações por bronquiolite aguda em lactentes <1 ano de idade foram obtidos do Departamento de Informática da base de dados da Saúde Pública Brasileira para o período entre 2016 e 2022. Esses dados também foram analisados por macrorregiões do Brasil (Norte, Nordeste, Sudeste, Sul e Centro-Oeste). Para descrever características sazonais e de tendência ao longo do tempo, utilizamos o Modelo de Médias Móveis Integradas Autorregressivas Sazonais. Resultados: Em comparação com o período pré-COVID-19, a incidência de hospitalizações relacionadas com bronquiolite aguda diminuiu 97% durante as intervenções não farmacológicas (março de 2020 – agosto de 2021), mas aumentou 95% após a flexibilização das intervenções não farmacológicas (setembro de 2021 – dezembro de 2022), resultando no aumento geral de 16%. Durante o período pré-COVID-19, as hospitalizações por bronquiolite aguda seguiram um padrão sazonal, que foi interrompido em 2020–2021, mas recuperaram-se em 2022, com um pico ocorrido em maio, aproximadamente 4% superior ao pico pré-COVID-19. Conclusões: Este estudo ressalta a influência significativa das intervenções contra a COVID-19 nas hospitalizações por bronquiolite aguda no Brasil. A restauração de um padrão sazonal em 2022 sublinha a interação entre as medidas de saúde pública e a dinâmica das doenças respiratórias em crianças pequenas. Objetivo 20202022 2020–202 comparála compará la anteriores Métodos 1 < 201 Norte, Norte (Norte Nordeste Sudeste CentroOeste. CentroOeste Centro Oeste . Centro-Oeste) tempo Sazonais Resultados préCOVID19, préCOVID19 préCOVID pré COVID 19, 19 pré-COVID-19 97 março 202 2021, , 2021) 95 setembro 2022) 16 16% 20202021 2020–2021 recuperaramse recuperaram se maio 4 préCOVID19. 19. Conclusões COVID19 COVID-1 pequenas 2020202 2020–20 20 Centro-Oeste préCOVID1 pré-COVID-1 9 COVID1 COVID- 202020 2020–2 2 pré-COVID- 20202 2020– pré-COVID

ABSTRACT Objective: To evaluate the seasonality of acute bronchiolitis in Brazil during the 2020–2022 season and compare it with the previous seasons. Methods: Data from the incidence of hospitalizations due to acute bronchiolitis in infants <1 year of age were obtained from the Department of Informatics of the Brazilian Public Health database for the period between 2016 and 2022. These data were also analyzed by macro-regions of Brazil (North, Northeast, Southeast, South, and Midwest). To describe seasonal and trend characteristics over time, we used the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages Model. Results: Compared to the pre-COVID-19 period, the incidence of hospitalizations related to acute bronchiolitis decreased by 97% during non-pharmacological interventions (March 2020 – August 2021) but increased by 95% after non-pharmacological interventions relaxation (September 2021 – December 2022), resulting in a 16% overall increase. During the pre-COVID-19 period, hospitalizations for acute bronchiolitis followed a seasonal pattern, which was disrupted in 2020–2021 but recovered in 2022, with a peak occurring in May, approximately 4% higher than the pre-COVID-19 peak. Conclusions: This study underscores the significant influence of COVID-19 interventions on acute bronchiolitis hospitalizations in Brazil. The restoration of a seasonal pattern in 2022 highlights the interplay between public health measures and respiratory illness dynamics in young children. Objective 20202022 2020–202 seasons Methods 1 < 201 macroregions macro regions North, North (North Northeast Southeast South Midwest. Midwest . Midwest) time Model Results preCOVID19 preCOVID pre COVID 19 pre-COVID-1 97 nonpharmacological non pharmacological March 202 95 September , 2022) 16 increase 20202021 May 4 Conclusions COVID19 COVID-1 children 2020202 2020–20 20 preCOVID1 pre-COVID- 9 COVID1 COVID- 202020 2020–2 2 pre-COVID 20202 2020–

RESUMEN Paraguay ha aumentado la inversión en educación en la última década por medio del Fondo Nacional de Inversión Pública y Desarrollo (FONACIDE) cuya finalidad consiste en abordar las carencias que afectan a la educación paraguaya. Entonces, considerando la creciente preocupación por la gestión de los recursos públicos dada la escasa infraestructura y el deficiente servicio del almuerzo escolar, en este trabajo se pretende analizar la eficiencia de la gestión de los gastos públicos en educación del FONACIDE de los departamentos de Paraguay durante el período 2015 a 2017, a través de la aplicación de la técnica Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) con análisis de ventana y retornos variables de escala con orientación producto. La técnica DEA con análisis de ventana consiste en medir el nivel de eficiencia de varias Decision Making Units (DMUs) en diferentes períodos de tiempo basado en el principio de promedios móviles. Los resultados muestran que la ineficiencia técnica pura media nacional es del 11,04%, por tanto, los departamentos en general podrían mejorar sus indicadores educativos utilizando los mismos niveles de financiamiento. Además, el mayor acceso a recursos no está vinculado a mejores rendimientos educativos. Por tanto, para potenciar el rendimiento educativo es necesario establecer otros criterios de redistribución presupuestaria del FONACIDE, considerando la necesidad de infraestructura y número de alumnos matriculados por departamento.

ABSTRACT Paraguay has increased investment in education over the past decade through the National Fund for Public Investment and Development (FONACIDE), whose goal is to address the deficiencies affecting Paraguayan education. Considering the growing concern over the management of public resources given the inadequate infrastructure and poor school lunch service, this paper aims to analyze the efficiency of public spending management in education by FONACIDE in the departments of Paraguay during the period 2015 to 2017. This is achieved through the application of the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique with window analysis and variable returns to scale with product orientation. The DEA technique with window analysis measures the efficiency level of several Decision-Making Units (DMUs) over different periods based on the moving averages principle. The results show that the average national pure technical inefficiency is 11.04%, meaning that the departments, in general, could improve their educational indicators using the same funding levels. Additionally, greater access to resources is not linked to better educational outcomes. Therefore, to enhance educational performance, it is necessary to establish other budget redistribution criteria for FONACIDE, considering the need for infrastructure and the number of enrolled students per department

ABSTRACT Objective: To develop and validate predictive models to estimate the number of COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the intensive care units and general wards of a private not-for-profit hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Two main models were developed. The first model calculated hospital occupation as the difference between predicted COVID-19 patient admissions, transfers between departments, and discharges, estimating admissions based on their weekly moving averages, segmented by general wards and intensive care units. Patient discharge predictions were based on a length of stay predictive model, assessing the clinical characteristics of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, including age group and usage of mechanical ventilation devices. The second model estimated hospital occupation based on the correlation with the number of telemedicine visits by patients diagnosed with COVID-19, utilizing correlational analysis to define the lag that maximized the correlation between the studied series. Both models were monitored for 365 days, from May 20th, 2021, to May 20th, 2022. Results: The first model predicted the number of hospitalized patients by department within an interval of up to 14 days. The second model estimated the total number of hospitalized patients for the following 8 days, considering calls attended by Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein’s telemedicine department. Considering the average daily predicted values for the intensive care unit and general ward across a forecast horizon of 8 days, as limited by the second model, the first and second models obtained R² values of 0.900 and 0.996, respectively and mean absolute errors of 8.885 and 2.524 beds, respectively. The performances of both models were monitored using the mean error, mean absolute error, and root mean squared error as a function of the forecast horizon in days. Conclusion: The model based on telemedicine use was the most accurate in the current analysis and was used to estimate COVID-19 hospital occupancy 8 days in advance, validating predictions of this nature in similar clinical contexts. The results encourage the expansion of this method to other pathologies, aiming to guarantee the standards of hospital care and conscious consumption of resources. Objective COVID19 COVID 19 COVID-1 notforprofit not profit Paulo Brazil Methods developed departments discharges averages COVID19, 19, devices series 36 20th th 2021 2022 Results 1 Einsteins Einstein s R 0900 0 900 0.90 0996 996 0.996 8885 885 8.88 2524 2 524 2.52 beds Conclusion advance contexts pathologies resources COVID1 COVID- 3 202 090 90 0.9 099 99 0.99 888 88 8.8 252 52 2.5 20 09 9 0. 8. 25 5 2.

ABSTRACT: Cervical arthroplasty with disc prosthesis has been proposed as a treatment option for dogs with Cervical Spondylomyelopathy. The present study developed a novel vertebral disc prosthesis for dogs. Sixteen Functional Spinal Units (C5-C6) were collected from dog cadavers with body weights ranging between 25 and 35 kg, and their vertebral measurements were used to design a prosthetic disc. The sizing of the prosthesis was performed based on the averages of the measurements of width, height, and length of the vertebral bodies from C5-C6 of all specimens. The prosthesis was developed using the Rhinoceros 3D® and SolidWorks® programs, and 3D prototyping was carried out to define the best design. The developed prosthesis consisted of two independent parts that are fixed to the cranial and caudal vertebral bodies, in the intervertebral space, and fitted together by metal-to-metal surfaces capable of moving in the lateral, ventral, and dorsal directions. Each part of the prosthesis is angled in two portions: vertically, in the intervertebral space, and horizontally, in contact with the ventral surface of the vertebral bodies, both of which are fixed by means of monocortical locking screws. The design of the developed prototype allowed a good fit in the intervertebral space between C4-C5, C5-C6, and C6-C7. ABSTRACT Spondylomyelopathy C5C6 CC C5 C6 C (C5-C6 2 3 kg width height C5-C specimens D SolidWorks programs metaltometal metal lateral directions portions vertically horizontally screws C4C5, C4C5 C4 C5, C4-C5 C5C6, C6, C6C7. C6C7 C7. C7 C6-C7 C5C (C5-C C4C C4-C C6C C6-C

RESUMO: A artroplastia cervical com prótese de disco tem sido proposta como uma opção de tratamento para cães com Espondilomielopatia Cervical. O presente estudo teve como objetivo desenvolver uma nova prótese de disco intervertebral para cães. Dezesseis Unidades Funcionais de Coluna Vertebral (C5-C6) foram coletadas de cadáveres de cães com peso corporal variando entre 25 e 35 kg, e suas medidas vertebrais foram usadas para projetar um disco intervertebral protético. O dimensionamento da prótese foi realizado com base nas médias das mensurações da largura, altura e comprimento dos corpos vertebrais de C5-C6 de todos os espécimes. A prótese foi desenvolvida nos programas Rhinoceros 3D® e SolidWorks® e utilizou-se prototipagem em 3D para a definição do melhor design. A prótese desenvolvida é formada por duas partes independentes que se fixam às espífises dos corpos vertebrais cranial e caudalmente ao espaço intervertebral, e se encaixam entre si por superfícies de metal-metal com capacidade de movimentação nas direções lateral, ventral e dorsal. Cada parte da prótese é angulada em duas porções: a vertical, que fica no espaço intervertebral, e a horizontal, que fica em contato com a superfície ventral dos corpos vertebrais, ambas as quais são fixadas por meio de parafusos bloqueados monocorticais. O design do protótipo desenvolvido permitiu bom encaixe no espaço intervertebral entre C4-C5, C5-C6 e C6-C7. RESUMO Cervical C5C6 CC C5 C6 C (C5-C6 2 3 kg protético largura C5-C espécimes D SolidWorks utilizouse utilizou metalmetal metal lateral dorsal porções vertical horizontal monocorticais C4C5, C4C5 C4 C5, C4-C5 C6C7. C6C7 C7. C7 C6-C7 C5C (C5-C C4C C4-C C6C C6-C

Objective: To estimate the temporal trend and spatial distribution of outpatient production for urinary incontinence in men in Brazil. Methods: Time-series ecological study for Brazil and regions, from 2010-2019. These data were obtained in the Unified Health System Outpatient Information System. Prais-Winsten regression was used to analyze the temporal trend in the country and by region. To forecast the trend until 2024 the integrated autoregressive model of moving averages was used. Results: There were 3,457 outpatient care for urinary incontinence in men registered in 2010 to 16,765 in 2019, an increasing temporal trend was observed in Brazil, with an annual percent change of 50.37% and a confidence interval of 95% (37.54%;63.62%); and a growth forecast between the years 2020-2024, by the final model ARIMA (1, 1, 0). The spatial distribution of urinary incontinence presented variation in rates for the geographic regions of Brazil. Conclusion: There was an increasing temporal trend in outpatient production for urinary incontinence in men in Brazil between 2010-2019 and a growth forecast until 2024. The highest rates occurred in the Southeast region and the highest increase in the South region.

Objetivo: Estimar la tendencia temporal y la distribución espacial de la producción ambulatoria para incontinencia urinaria en hombres en Brasil. Métodos: Estudio ecológico de serie temporal para Brasil y las regiones, en 2010-2019. Los datos fueron obtenidos el Sistema de Informaciones Ambulatorias del Sistema Único de Salud. Se utilizó la regresión de Prais-Winsten para analizar la tendencia temporal en el país y por región. Para previsión de la tendencia hasta 2024 fue utilizado el modelo autorregresivo integrado de promedio móvil. Resultados: Fueron registrados 3.457 procedimientos ambulatorios para incontinencia urinaria en hombres en 2010, para 16.765 en 2019, observando una tendencia creciente de Brasil, con variación porcentual anual del 50, 37% y intervalo de confianza del 95% (37,54%;63,62%). Y, una previsión de crecimiento. entre los años 2020-2024, el modelo final ARIMA (1, 1, 0). La distribución espacial para incontinencia urinaria mostró variación en las tasas para las regiones geográficas de Brasil. Conclusión: Fue encontrado una tendencia temporal creciente la producción ambulatoria para incontinencia urinaria en hombres em Brasil entre 2010-2019 y una previsión de crecimiento hasta 2024. Las tasas más altas ocurrieron en la región Sureste y el mayor incremento en la región Sur.

Objetivo: Estimar a tendência temporal e distribuição espacial da produção ambulatorial para incontinência urinária em homens no Brasil. Métodos: Estudo ecológico de série temporal do país e macrorregiões, em 2010-2019, sobre dados do Sistema de Informações Ambulatoriais do Sistema Único de Saúde. Utilizou-se regressão de Prais-Winsten para análise da tendência temporal no país/macrorregiões; e para previsão até 2024, o modelo autoregressivo integrado de médias móveis. Resultados: em 2010, foram registrados 3.457 procedimentos ambulatoriais para incontinência urinária em homens e, em 2019, 16.765, revelando tendência temporal crescente (variação percentual anual = 50,37% – intervalo de confiança de 95% [IC95%] – 37,54;63,62%), com previsão de crescimento para 2020-2024 (modelo final ARIMA: 1, 1, 0); a distribuição espacial apresentou variação nas taxas, entre macrorregiões. Conclusão: Verificou-se tendência temporal crescente na produção ambulatorial para incontinência urinária em homens brasileiros, no período, com maiores taxas no Sudeste e maior elevação no Sul, em previsão de crescimento até 2024.

ABSTRACT Introduction: In Alta Verapaz efforts have been made to reduce deaths from causes related to pregnancy, childbirth and puerperium period, however, they have not been enough. Objective: Describe the behavior of maternal mortality in Alta Verapaz between 2010 and 2018. Methods: A time series analysis of the department, sub-departmental regions and municipalities was performed using moving averages and the percentage differences in the overall maternal mortality ratios between the territories were calculated. Results: The sub-departmental regions III and V were the ones with the highest relative frequency. The trend of the risk of dying was slightly downward at the expense of the following municipalities : Cobán, San Pedro Carcha, Lanquín, Tucurú, Panzós, Chacal, Fray Bartolomé de las Casas and Raxruhá, which was reflected in the sub-departmental regions. Conclusions: There was not much variety in maternal mortality in Alta Verapaz in the study period despite the efforts made, which shows the need to review the health policies and strategies developed in search of more effective alternatives that contribute to the reduction of deaths of pregnant and post-partum women.

RESUMEN Introducción: En Alta Verapaz se han realizado esfuerzos para disminuir los fallecimientos por causas relacionadas con embarazos, parto y puerperio, sin embargo, no han sido suficientes. Objetivo: Describir el comportamiento de la mortalidad materna en Alta Verapaz entre 2010 y 2018. Métodos: Se realizó un análisis de series cronológicas del departamento, regiones subdepartamentales y municipios mediante los promedios móviles y se calcularon las diferencias porcentuales de las razones de mortalidad materna globales entre los territorios. Resultados: Las regiones sugdepartamentales III y V fueron las que más elevada frecuencia relativa presentaron. La tendencia del riesgo de morir fue ligeramente descendente a expensas de los municipios Cobán, San Pedro Carcha, Lanquín, Tucurú, Panzós, Chacal, Fray Bartolomé de las Casas y Raxruhá, lo que se reflejó en las regiones subdepartamentales. Conclusiones: No hubo mucha variedad en la mortalidad materna en Alta Verapaz en el periodo de estudio a pesar de los esfuerzos realizados, lo cual evidencia la necesidad de revisar las políticas y estrategias de salud desarrolladas en busca de alternativas más efectivas que contribuyan a la disminución de los fallecimientos de las mujeres embarazadas y puérperas.

Resumo Fundamento Estudos sobre mortalidade por Insuficiência Cardíaca (IC) no Brasil e Regiões Geográficas (RG) são escassos. Objetivo Analisar a evolução temporal das taxas de mortalidade por IC por sexo e faixa etária no Brasil, RG e Unidades da Federação (UF), de 1980 a 2018, e associações com o Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano Municipal (IDHM). Métodos Estudo de séries temporais dos óbitos por IC, por sexo e faixas etárias, no Brasil, RG e UF, de 1980 a 2018. Os óbitos e a população foram retirados do DATASUS para estimar taxas de mortalidade por 100.000 habitantes, brutas e padronizadas (método direto, população brasileira do ano 2000). Foram calculadas médias móveis de três anos das taxas padronizadas. Os IDHM das UF de 1991 e 2010 foram obtidos do Atlas Brasil. Empregou-se o coeficiente de correlação de Pearson, com 5% de significância. Resultados A mortalidade por IC diminuiu no Brasil a partir de 2008, atingindo ao final de 2018 patamar semelhante nas RG e UF, sendo maior nos homens durante quase todos os períodos e faixas etárias, exceto naqueles acima de 60 anos, a partir de 1995, na região Sul. Observou-se relação inversa entre o IDHM e a redução das taxas de mortalidade (0,73). Conclusão Houve redução das taxas de mortalidade por IC no Brasil progressivamente de 2008 até 2018, com patamares semelhantes em 2018 nas RG e UF, com maiores taxas no sexo masculino. Essas reduções parecem relacionadas com o IDHM em 2010, mais do que o aumento percentual ao longo do tempo.

Abstract Background Studies on mortality from heart failure (HF) in Brazil and in the country’s Geographic Regions (GRs) are scarce. Objective To analyze the temporal progression of HF mortality rates by sex and age group in Brazil and its GRs and Federative Units (FUs) from 1980 to 2018, and the associations between mortality rates at each FU and the Municipal Human Development Index (MHDI). Methods Time series analysis of deaths due to HF categorized by sex and age groups in Brazil and Brazilian GRs and FUs from 1980 to 2018. Death and population data were obtained from the DATASUS for estimation of crude and standardized mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants (direct method, Brazilian population in the year 2000). We calculated the 3-year moving averages of the standardized rates. The MHDIs of the FUs in 1991 and 2010 were obtained from Atlas Brasil and were correlated with mortality rates using Pearson’s correlation at a 5% significance level. Results Mortality due to HF decreased in Brazil after 2008, reaching a similar level at the end of 2018 in the GRs and FUs, and was higher in men during almost all periods and age groups, except for those over the age of 60 years after 1995 in the South region. There was an inverse relationship between MHDI and reduction in mortality rates (0.73). Conclusion There was a progressive reduction in mortality rates due to HF in Brazil from 2008 to 2018, with similar levels in 2018 in the GRs and FUs and higher rates in men. These reductions appear to be related more to the 2010 MHDI than the percentage increase over time.

Abstract Background: The etiology of Kawasaki disease (KD) is unknown. It is believed that viral infections could trigger the disease in susceptible patients. Aim: To study the temporal association between the circulation of respiratory viruses and KD hospitalizations in the Metropolitan Region (MR), Chile, between 2010-2017. Methods: Ecologic study consisting of a review of KD cases in children under 18 years of age based on hospital discharges. The circulation of respiratory viruses was analyzed using the report of the metropolitan surveillance network. Moving averages for KD (MAKD) and respiratory viruses (MARV) were used. Results: 14,902 cases of respiratory virus infections were recorded between 2010-2017. A direct correlation was found between MARV-respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) of one month and year and MAKD of the subsequent month (correlation coefficient (ρ) = +0.441; p < 0.001). A similar association was found for MARV-influenza A (FLU A) (ρ = + 0.362; p < 0.001). MARV-influenza B (FLU B) and MARV-metapneumovirus (MPV) had direct correlations with MAKD (ρ = +0.443; p < 0.001 and ρ = +0.412; p < 0.001, respectively), being FLU B contemporary in month and year with KD, and MPV presenting a one-month lag. Conclusion: There is a direct temporal correlation between RSV, FLU A, FLU B and MPV circulation and KD in children from RM, Chile.

Resumen Introducción: La etiología de la enfermedad de Kawasaki (EK) es desconocida, planteándose que infecciones virales la gatillan en pacientes susceptibles. Objetivo: Estudiar la asociación temporal entre la circulación de virus respiratorios y hospitalizaciones por EK en la Región Metropolitana (RM), Chile, entre 2010-2017. Metodología: Estudio ecológico retrospectivo de casos de EK en pacientes bajo 18 años de edad, en base a egresos hospitalarios. La circulación de virus se analizó mediante el reporte de la red de vigilancia metropolitana. Se utilizaron promedios móviles para EK (PMEK) y virus respiratorios (PMVR). Resultados: Se registraron 14.902 casos de infecciones virales respiratorias entre 2010-2017. Se observó correlación directa entre PMVR-virus respiratorio sincicial (VRS) de un mes y año y PMEK del mes subsiguiente (coeficiente de correlación (ρ) = +0,441; p < 0,001), y una asociación similar para PMVR-influenza A (FLU A) (ρ = +0,362; p < 0,001). PMVR-influenza B (FLU B) y PMVR-metapneumovirus (MPV) presentan correlaciones directas con PMEK (ρ = +0,443; p < 0,001 y ρ = +0,412; p < 0,001, respectivamente), siendo contemporáneo en mes y año con EK para FLU B, mientras que MPV presenta un desfase de un mes entre PMVR y PMEK. Conclusión: Existe correlación temporal directa entre la circulación de VRS, FLU A, FLU B y MPV con EK en niños de la RM, Chile.

ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to design a procedure to forecast the time lost as a planning integrating element. Due to the complexity in the productive processes in sugar industry, the application of planning traditional methods is a limiting factor to integrate the hints in the industrial production plan and decision taking. Due to this, the present procedure, with the application of forecasting techniques, provides theoretical and practical elements to make possible a correct integration of the main production hints and the efficiency in the planning process of sugar industry. To achieve this goal, the method of moving averages and the calculus of seasonal component to determine the weekly forecast of time lost in the industry out of the seasonal variation indices. Apart from that, it was demonstrated that the time lost in the industry integrated to the hints of efficiency can be used to have a weekly forecast about the quantity of sugar cane to process and the sugar to produce. Due to this the forecast of the time lost is considered a basic element to plan the industrial production in order to achieve a better use of sugar industry productive capacity.

RESUMEN El artículo tiene como propósito diseñar un procedimiento para el pronóstico del tiempo perdido como elemento de integración en la planificación. Dada la complejidad de los procesos productivos en la industria azucarera, la aplicación de los métodos tradicionales de planificación, limita la posibilidad de la integración de indicadores en el plan de producción industrial y la toma de decisiones, por tal razón, el procedimiento propuesto, mediante la aplicación de técnicas de pronóstico, proporciona los elementos teóricos y prácticos que posibilitan una adecuada integración de los indicadores fundamentales de producción y de eficiencia en el proceso de planificación de la industria azucarera. Por ello se aplica el método de las medias móviles y el cálculo de la componente estacional, para determinar el pronóstico semanal del tiempo perdido a partir de los índices de variación estacional. Además, se demuestra que el tiempo perdido en integración con indicadores de eficiencia, posibilitan realizar el pronóstico semanal de los indicadores de producción caña a procesar y azúcar a producir. Por tanto, se considera al pronóstico del tiempo perdido como un elemento básico en la elaboración y fundamentación del plan de producción industrial, en función de lograr un mejor grado de utilización de la capacidad productiva.

Resumo Este artigo avalia a aplicabilidade e efetividade da ferramenta estatística “Convergência e Divergência de Médias Móveis” (MACD) à previsibilidade das vazões médias anuais do Rio Paraná medidas na cidade de Corrientes-Argentina, com amplitude temporal de 100 anos. Esta técnica é amplamente utilizada no mercado financeiro para previsão de tendências e reversões em valores de commodities e ações, tendo sofrido ajustes para uso nesse estudo. às médias móveis exponenciais (EMA) do oscilador, atribuíram-se períodos correspondentes a ciclos astronômicos que produzem efeitos na variável climatológica em estudo: o Ciclo solar de Schwabe, de periodicidade de 11,2 anos, o Ciclo Nodal Lunar, de 18,6 anos, e o Ciclo Apsidal Lunar, de 8,85 anos. Há um crescente entendimento científico de que tais parâmetros cíclicos astronômicos exercem influência no clima terrestre, inclusive sobre oscilações oceano-atmosféricas de escala global, como a Oscilação Decadal do Pacífico (ODP) e a El Niño-Oscilação Sul (ENOS), que, por sua vez, sabidamente se relacionam à variável, a qual é resposta das condições de pluviometria que levam águas a dois dos rios mais importantes da bacia do Prata: o Paraná e o Uruguai. Propriedades específicas da MACD obtiveram desempenho considerável na predição de tendências de aumento/diminuição em diversos períodos nessa série centenária de vazões. Encoraja-se a aplicação da MACD a outras variáveis climáticas, como precipitação, PNM e TSM, de modo a efetivá-la como mais uma ferramenta a fornecer esteio às previsões climáticas.

Abstract This article assesses the applicability and effectiveness of the statistical tool “Convergence and Divergence of Moving Averages” (MACD) to the predictability of the average annual flow of the Paraná River measured in the city of Corrientes-Argentina, with a time span of 100 years. This technique is widely used in the financial market for forecasting trends and reversals in commodities and stock prices. Given the versatile nature of this technique, its parameters were easily adapted to be implemented in this study. The periods assigned to the exponential moving averages (EMA), an inherent parameter of the oscillator, allude to astronomical cycles that produce effects on the climatological variable in the addressed timescale, namely, the Schwabe Solar Cycle, with a periodicity of 11.2 years, the Lunar Nodal Cycle, of 18.6 years, and the Apsidal Lunar Cycle, of 8.85 years. There is a growing scientific understanding that such astronomical cyclical parameters do influence the terrestrial climate, especially via the modulation of ocean-atmospheric oscillations of global scale, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (ODP) and El Niño-Oscilação Sul (ENOS), which are known to be related to the variable in study, which, in turn, is responsive to the rainfall conditions that supply water to two of the most important rivers in the La Plata basin: Paraná and Uruguay. Specific properties of MACD obtained considerable performance in predicting trends of increase/decrease in several periods of that centennial data series of river flow. The use of MACD for other climate variables, such as rainfall, Sea Level Pressure and Sea Surface Temperature, is highly encouraged, in order to consummate it as an additional tool to improve confidence in climate prediction.

Resumen Objetivo: analizar las principales características epidemiológicas de la mortalidad por infarto del miocardio en Costa Rica de 1970 al 2014. Métodos: los datos del número de muertos por IAM para todas las edades y de la población del país se obtuvieron consultando anuarios y bases de datos del Instituto Nacional de Estadística y del Centro de Población de la Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR). Con ellos se obtuvieron las tasas brutas y estandarizadas, ''suavizadas'' por promedios móviles y quinquenales, así como la relación porcentual con la mortalidad general. Posteriormente, se calcularon las tasas estandarizadas de mortalidad por IAM para el grupo de 35 a 74 años, por sexo y provincia. Resultados: la tendencia permite distinguir dos épocas definidas. Una de ascenso que ocurre desde 1970 hasta finales de la década de los años noventa. La otra en los primeros años del siglo XXI con inclinación hacia el descenso. Esto se observa con las tasas de promedios móviles y quinquenales, especialmente en el grupo de 35 a 74 años (hombres, r=0.99, r2=094, betha=-6.67, p=0.00, mujeres r=0.97, r2=0.94, betha= -6.67, p=0.01, ambos sexos r=0.97, r2=0.94, betha=-7.42, p=0.01). Conclusiones: pese a una leve tendencia a la disminución de la mortalidad por IAM en estos últimos quince años, el IAM continuará siendo un grave problema de salud en Costa Rica y para revertir la situación, tendrá el gobierno nacional que continuar esforzándose en disminuir la prevalencia de los principales factores de riesgo de las ECNT y en mejorar la atención del paciente que tiene la enfermedad.

Abstract Objective: To analyze the mortality and some aspects of the descriptive epidemiology of acute myocardial infarction in Costa Rica from 1970 to 2014. Methods: The number of deaths due to AMI for all ages and the population of the country were obtained through the consultation of yearbooks and the databases of the National Institute of Statistics and the Population Center of the UCR. With them gross and standardized rates were extracted, "smoothed" by moving and five-year averages as well as the percentage relation with the general mortality. Subsequently, the standardized mortality rates for AMI were obtained for the group of 35 to 74 years, according to sex, provinces and socioeconomic regions. Results: The analysis of the trend allows to distinguish two very well-defined periods. One of ascent that happens from 1970 until the end of the decade of the nineties. The other appears with the first years of the 21st century with a clear tendency towards descent. This is observed in the case of rates with moving and five-year averages and very especially, with the group of 35 to 74 years (men, r = 0.99, r2 = 0.94, betha = -6.67, p = 0.00, women r = 0.97, r2 = 0.94, betha = -6.67, p = 0.01, both sexes r = 0.97, r2 = 0.94, betha = -7.42, p = 0.01). Conclusions: Despite a slight tendency to decrease mortality from AMI in the last fifteen years, AMI will continue to be a serious health problem in Costa Rica and to reverse the situation, the national government will have to continue striving to reduce prevalence. of the main risk factors of NCDs and in improving the care of patients who have the disease.

Abstract Vanilla (Vanilla planifolia) is one of the most demanded aromatics in the culinary and soft drink industry, and among licit crops it is the most profitable, only after saffron. In 2017, production in Mexico was 505.32 tons, placing it as the fourth largest producer in the world after Madagascar, Indonesia and China. The objective of this study was to develop a forecast model for annual vanilla production in Mexico (PVAINI). The data were from the period 2000 to 2016 and the Box-Jenkins methodology of integrated autoregressive processes of moving averages (ARIMA) was used. The model parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood method with the Statistical Analysis System computer package. A model based on the PVAINI series was adapted for the period 2000 to 2016 and validated with the data for the years 2016 and 2017. The best estimated model was ARIMA (1, 1, 1) and indicated that the PVAINI are explained with the production occurred 4 previous years. The predicted values for 2017 were close to the observed values. The ARIMA model represented PVAINI with some precision in the next year and provided information to plan and make decisions for the next six years.

Resumen La vainilla (Vanilla planifolia) es uno de los aromáticos más demandados en la industria culinaria y refresquera, y entre los cultivos lícitos es de los más rentables, solo después del azafrán. En 2017 la producción en México fue 505.32 toneladas, ubicándolo como el cuarto productor mundial después de Madagascar, Indonesia y China. El objetivo de este estudio fue desarrollar un modelo de pronóstico para la producción anual de vainilla en México (PVAINI). Los datos fueron del periodo 2000 a 2016 y se utilizó la metodología Box-Jenkins de procesos autorregresivos integrados de medias móviles (ARIMA). Los parámetros de los modelos se estimaron con el método de máxima verosimilitud con el paquete de cómputo Statistical Analysis System. Un modelo basado en la serie PVAINI se adaptó para el periodo 2000 a 2016 y se validó con los datos de los años 2016 y 2017. El mejor modelo estimado fue ARIMA (1, 1, 1) e indicó que los PVAINI se explican con la producción ocurrida 4 años previos. Los valores pronosticados para 2017 fueron cercanos a los valores observados. El modelo ARIMA representó con cierta precisión el PVAINI en el próximo año y proporcionó información para planificar y tomar decisiones para los próximos seis años.

ABSTRACT Introduction Pollution and climate have an impact on pediatric respiratory diseases; fewstudies have assessed this in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires. Objective To assess the impact of the interaction between air pollutants and climate on the Emergency Department visits for acute lowerrespiratory tract infection (ALRTI) in a children'shospital. Methods Ecological, time-series study with generalized additive models that included totalvisits and visits for ALRTI to the Emergency Department between 2012 and 2016. A serieswith 7-day moving averages for ALRTI visits was founded as a bias control measure. Predictors were daily levels of air pollutants (carbon monoxide, nitrous dioxide, particulatematter < 10 p) and meteorological variables (temperature, humidity). Pollutants weremeasured at three monitoring stations. Temporalvariables (day of the week, warm/cold semester) were controlled. Results There were 455 256 total visits; 17 298 accounted for visits for ALRTI. A correlation wasestablished only between total visits and day ofthe week (Mondays and Saturdays, more visits;Thursdays, less visits). Less visits for ALRTI were recorded in the warm semester comparedto the cold semester (relative risk = 0.23; 95 %confidence interval: 0.29-0.18; p < 0.001). One monitoring station did not show any correlation; the other two stations showed aweak correlation between carbon monoxide andparticulate matter < 10 p and visits for ALRTI. Conclusion The season accurately accounts forthe increased number of total visits and visits for ALRTI. Although there was a correlation betweenthe level of certain pollutants and the number ofvisits, its impact was irrelevant.

RESUMEN Introducción La contaminación y el clima tienen impacto en la patología respiratoria en niños; pocos estudios lo evaluaron en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Objetivo Evaluar el impacto de la interacción entre contaminantes atmosféricos y clima en lasconsultas por infección respiratoria aguda baja (IRAB) en un hospital pediátrico. Métodos Estudio ecológico, de series temporales con modelos aditivos generalizados, que incluyótodas las consultas y consultas por IRAB (urgencias) entre 2012 y 2016. Para controlarsesgos, se conformó una serie con promediosmóviles de 7 días para consultas por IRAB. Los predictores fueron niveles diarios decontaminantes atmosféricos (monóxido decarbono, dióxido nitroso, material particulado< 10 p) y variables meteorológicas (temperatura, humedad). Los contaminantes fueron medidosen 3 estaciones de monitoreo. Se controló porvariables temporales (día de la semana, semestrecálido/frío). Resultados Las consultas totales fueron 455 256 y por IRAB 17 298. Solo consultas totalescorrelacionaron con día de la semana (lunesy sábados, más consultas y jueves, menos). Elsemestre cálido registró menos consultas por IRAB que el frío (riesgo relativo = 0,23; intervalode confianza 95 %: 0,29-0,18; p < 0,001). Una estación de monitoreo no presentó ninguna correlación; las otras mostraron correlacióndébil entre monóxido de carbono y materialparticulado < 10 p y consultas por IRAB. Conclusión La época del año explica conprecisión el incremento del número de consultastotales y por IRAB. Aunque el nivel de algunoscontaminantes muestra correlación con elnúmero de consultas, su impacto es irrelevante.

Abstract This article aims at analyzing the evolution of mortality from waterborne diseases during the first decade of the 21st century, by age groups, comparing two countries of the southern cone: Argentina and Brazil. The method of years of potential life lost (YPLL) due to death, based on the technique described by Eduardo Arriaga, was used. For all death estimates, moving averages are used to establish two periods: 2000-2002 and 2009-2011. There is a general trend towards a reduction in mortality because of water-related diseases, both in Argentina and Brazil, with an average reduction rate of years of life lost close to 1% per year. This reduction is not uniform for all diseases related to this group of causes; in fact, there are causes that increase their mortality in the period studied, although most are epidemic outbreaks. On the other hand, the group of causes analyzed impacts more on the most vulnerable ages: those under 1 year old and those over 50 years old. The isolated interventions made on the hygiene of the water do not reach the levels of desired success by themselves considering this type of affections, that depend on other factors associated to the health conditions, the quality of life and the health education.

Resumen Este artículo pretende analizar la evolución de la mortalidad por enfermedades transmitidas por el agua durante el primer decenio del siglo XXI, por grupos de edades, comparando dos países del cono sur: Argentina y Brasil. Se estiman Años de Esperanza de Vida Perdidos (AEVP) por causa de muerte en base a la técnica descripta por Eduardo Arriaga. Para todas las estimaciones de defunción se utilizan promedios móviles para establecer dos períodos: 2000-2002 y 2009-2011. Se observa una tendencia general a la disminución de la mortalidad por enfermedades relacionadas con el agua, tanto en Argentina como en Brasil, con una velocidad de reducción promedio de los años de vida perdidos cercana al 1% anual. Esta reducción no es uniforme para todas las enfermedades relacionadas a este grupo de causas; de hecho existen causas que aumentan su mortalidad en el período estudiado, aunque en su mayoría se trata de brotes epidémicos. Por otro lado, el grupo de causas analizado impacta más en las edades más vulnerables: los menores de 1 año y los mayores de 50 años. Las intervenciones aisladas que se hacen sobre la higiene del agua, no logran por sí solas alcanzar los niveles de éxito deseado frente a este tipo de afecciones, que dependen de otros factores asociados a las condiciones de salud, la calidad de vida y la educación sanitaria.

Resumen Este artículo pretende analizar la evolución de la mortalidad por enfermedades transmitidas por el agua durante el primer decenio del siglo XXI, por grupos de edades, comparando dos países del cono sur: Argentina y Brasil. Se estiman Años de Esperanza de Vida Perdidos (AEVP) por causa de muerte en base a la técnica descripta por Eduardo Arriaga. Para todas las estimaciones de defunción se utilizan promedios móviles para establecer dos períodos: 2000-2002 y 2009-2011. Se observa una tendencia general a la disminución de la mortalidad por enfermedades relacionadas con el agua, tanto en Argentina como en Brasil, con una velocidad de reducción promedio de los años de vida perdidos cercana al 1% anual. Esta reducción no es uniforme para todas las enfermedades relacionadas a este grupo de causas; de hecho existen causas que aumentan su mortalidad en el período estudiado, aunque en su mayoría se trata de brotes epidémicos. Por otro lado, el grupo de causas analizado impacta más en las edades más vulnerables: los menores de 1 año y los mayores de 50 años. Las intervenciones aisladas que se hacen sobre la higiene del agua, no logran por sí solas alcanzar los niveles de éxito deseado frente a este tipo de afecciones, que dependen de otros factores asociados a las condiciones de salud, la calidad de vida y la educación sanitaria.

Abstract This article aims at analyzing the evolution of mortality from waterborne diseases during the first decade of the 21st century, by age groups, comparing two countries of the southern cone: Argentina and Brazil. The method of years of potential life lost (YPLL) due to death, based on the technique described by Eduardo Arriaga, was used. For all death estimates, moving averages are used to establish two periods: 2000-2002 and 2009-2011. There is a general trend towards a reduction in mortality because of water-related diseases, both in Argentina and Brazil, with an average reduction rate of years of life lost close to 1% per year. This reduction is not uniform for all diseases related to this group of causes; in fact, there are causes that increase their mortality in the period studied, although most are epidemic outbreaks. On the other hand, the group of causes analyzed impacts more on the most vulnerable ages: those under 1 year old and those over 50 years old. The isolated interventions made on the hygiene of the water do not reach the levels of desired success by themselves considering this type of affections, that depend on other factors associated to the health conditions, the quality of life and the health education.