Abstract Introduction Statistical inference (SI) methods are widely used in epidemiological data analyses to evaluate random variation as a probable source of error in the results. However, the assumptions necessary for its use are frequently unmet. Objective To discuss assumptions for SI, implications of its use when individuals are non-randomly selected, different statistical approaches of epidemiological data and results extrapolation sceneries in occupational epidemiology. Methods Essay based in the specialized literature and in the authors’ academic experience. Results This essay presents situations of epidemiological research in which the SI procedures are used without the support of the assumptions for its appliance. Situations of generalization of epidemiological results are discussed, pinpointing when the validity of using SI can be questioned. The considerations about themes addressed in this essay aim to contribute to the critical management of data analysis and to the process of results extrapolation in occupational epidemiology research, delimiting the role of SI. Conclusion The use of statistical methods and of the report of research results should include essential provisos that allow the reader to evaluate its pertinence, possible assumptions violation, and the validity of the reasoning and of the inference used.

Resumo Introdução Métodos de inferência estatística (IE) são amplamente utilizados na análise de dados epidemiológicos para avaliação da variação amostral como provável fonte de erro dos resultados. Entretanto, pressupostos necessários para seu uso muitas vezes não são verificados. Objetivo Discutir pressupostos da IE, implicações do seu uso quando os indivíduos são selecionados de forma não aleatória, diferentes abordagens estatísticas de dados epidemiológicos e cenários de extrapolação de resultados em epidemiologia ocupacional. Métodos Ensaio com base em literatura especializada e na experiência acadêmica dos autores. Resultados São apresentadas situações da pesquisa epidemiológica nas quais os procedimentos de IE são utilizados sem apoio nos pressupostos para sua aplicação. São discutidas as situações de generalização de resultados epidemiológicos, assinalando-se quando a validade do uso da inferência estatística pode ser questionada. Ponderações sobre temas abordados neste artigo visam contribuir para a condução crítica da análise de dados e no processo de extrapolação dos resultados da pesquisa em epidemiologia ocupacional, delimitando o papel da IE. Conclusão O uso de métodos estatísticos e o relato de resultados de pesquisa devem ser feitos com as ressalvas indispensáveis que possibilitem ao leitor avaliar sua pertinência, possíveis violações de pressupostos e a validade do raciocínio e da inferência aplicadas.

Given the challenges associated with understanding electrochemistry content by engaging in prediction, observation, and explanation, laboratory activities can foster active participation and critical thinking, enabling individuals to proactively confront and revise their understanding. Since pre-service teachers should gain firsthand experience with predict-observe-based on a predict-observe-explain strategy, we propose a laboratory activity presented as a “mystery box” related to concentration cells coupled with an Arduino-based electronic data measurement system to identify how pre-service chemistry teachers move from observations to inferences in a qualitative research. Data was collected by written records and oral explanations during the practical interactions. Results suggest that the proposed laboratory activity allows pre-service chemistry teachers to access data and correct inferences related to electrochemistry content, promoting critical thinking. Data also showed a connection between the macroscopic and symbolic domains, and pre-service teachers recognized concepts associated with the activity, such as solution conductivity and the potential difference in chemical reactions, interpreting the system with prior knowledge, like electron flow direction and concentration cell components. However, additional strategies are needed for detailed and consistent observation and inference recording, enhancing the potential of such activities in favoring electrochemistry education in high schools.

In last decades, technical-scientific investigations into cultural heritage assets have increasingly become part of analysis methodologies accessible to professionals from different areas for a broad understanding of the complex material and historical nature of objects. In this interdisciplinary word, the painting “Costureiras” by Tarsila do Amaral (1886-1973), from 1950, was studied by ultraviolet-induced visible luminescence (UVL), infrared image (IR) and macro X-ray fluorescence scanning (MA-XRF) techniques. UVL and MA-XRF images enabled the exploration of the conservation status of the artwork, the creative process of the artist, and areas featuring materials distinct from the original painting. By combining the results of IR and MA-XRF images, it was confirmed that changes occurred in the creative process during the composition of the artwork. MA-XRF images further allowed the inference of the primary pigments employed by the artist, revealing that, during canvas priming, Tarsila do Amaral utilized pigments based on lead and zinc. decades technicalscientific technical scientific objects word Costureiras “Costureiras 18861973, 18861973 1886 1973 , (1886-1973) 1950 ultravioletinduced ultraviolet induced UVL, (UVL) (IR Xray X ray MAXRF MA XRF (MA-XRF techniques artwork artist priming zinc 1886197 188 197 (1886-1973 195 (UVL 188619 18 19 (1886-197 18861 1 (1886-19 (1886-1 (1886- (1886 (188 (18 (1 (

Resumen (Objetivo) El presente estudio tuvo como objetivo principal analizar las actividades relacionadas con inferencia estadística, presentes en los textos escolares de enseñanza secundaria en Chile, y su relación con el desarrollo del pensamiento estadístico. (Metodología) Para efectos del estudio se hizo uso de un enfoque cualitativo mediante un análisis de contenido de los libros de enseñanza secundaria difundidos, gratuitamente, por el Ministerio de Educación chileno durante los años 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021 y 2022, los cuales fueron seleccionados mediante un muestreo no probabilístico del tipo intencionado. (Resultados) Entre los principales resultados obtenidos, la mayoría de las actividades afines a inferencia estadística en los libros analizados, son del tipo procedimental, relacionadas con el cálculo de intervalos de confianza, sin abordar la interpretación de estos en el contexto de la situación problema. Además, se observa una escasa presencia de actividades relacionadas con inferencia informal. Asimismo, las actividades e interpelaciones explicitadas en los libros de texto no hacen referencia a la formulación de hipótesis o conjeturas acerca de los datos muestrales, de manera que se oriente a la formulación de conclusiones hacia la inferencia estadística. (Conclusiones) Los hallazgos entregan evidencias que, a pesar de que los intervalos de confianza se encuentran dentro de las temáticas afines a inferencia estadística en los libros de texto, estas no se focalizan en la toma de decisiones en el nivel poblacional, más bien son tratados desde un vértice descriptivo.

Resumo (Objetivo) O objetivo principal deste estudo foi analisar as atividades relacionadas à inferência estatística, presentes textos escolares do ensino médio no Chile, e sua relação com o desenvolvimento do pensamento estatístico. (Metodologia) Para efeitos do estudo, utilizou-se uma abordagem qualitativa através de uma análise de conteúdo dos livros do ensino secundário distribuídos gratuitamente pelo Ministério da Educação do Chile durante os anos de 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021 e 2022, que foram selecionados por meio de amostragem não probabilística do tipo intencional. (Resultados) Dentre os principais resultados obtidos, a maior parte das atividades relacionadas à inferência estatística nos livros analisados são do tipo processual, relacionadas ao cálculo de intervalos de confiança, sem abordar sua interpretação no contexto da situação problema. Além disso, há uma presença escassa de atividades relacionadas à inferência informal. Da mesma forma, as atividades e questões explicadas nos livros de texto não se referem à formulação de hipóteses ou conjecturas sobre os dados amostrais, de modo que a formulação de conclusões seja orientada para a inferência estatística. (Conclusões) Os resultados fornecem evidências de que, embora os intervalos de confiança estejam dentro dos tópicos relacionados à inferência estatística nos livros de texto, eles não se concentram na tomada de decisões em nível populacional, mas são tratados a partir de um vértice descritivo.

Abstract (Objective) The main purpose of this study was to analyze the activities related to statistical inference present in secondary education textbooks in Chile, and their relationship to the development of statistical thinking. (Methodology) For the purposes of the study, a qualitative approach was used through a content analysis of the secondary education books disseminated free of charge by the Chilean Ministry of Education during the years 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022, which were selected using intentional nonprobabilistic sampling. (Results) Among the main results obtained, it was found that most of the activities related to statistical inference in the textbooks analyzed had to do with procedures related to the calculation of confidence intervals, without addressing their interpretation in the context of the problem. In addition, it was observed that there were few activities related to informal inference. Likewise, the activities and questions presented in the textbooks do not refer to the formulation of hypotheses or conjectures about the sample data made to guide the formulation of conclusions related to statistical inference. (Conclusions) The findings indicate that despite the fact that confidence intervals are among the topics related to statistical inference in the textbooks, these textbooks are not focused on decision-making at the population level, but rather on description.

Resumen Introducción. El tamaño del efecto y la variabilidad son factores relevantes en la estimación del número de repeticiones necesario en un experimento, cuyo impacto suele ser desconocido por el investigador. Objetivo. Analizar el efecto de la variabilidad y el tamaño del efecto en el número de repeticiones necesario en experimentación agrícola. Materiales y métodos. Se utilizaron los parámetros de correlación espacial estimados a partir de ensayo de uniformidad en el cultivo de arroz para realizar 10 000 simulaciones de campos aleatorios. En cada simulación se conformaron 16 unidades experimentales de 24 m2 y se ajustó un análisis de varianza para estimar la varianza residual promedio como escenario A. En adición, se propuso un escenario B donde se usó el cuantil 95 de las varianzas estimadas. El tamaño del efecto se definió con base en los resultados de un metaanálisis sobre el efecto de prácticas agrícolas en el rendimiento del arroz y resultó ser un 15% de la media general de los datos del ensayo de uniformidad. También, se propusieron tamaños de efecto adicionales del 10% y 5% de la media general. Resultados. En el escenario A, se necesitaron cuatro repeticiones para alcanzar una potencia del 0,91 y detectar un efecto del 15%, mientras que seis repeticiones fueron necesarias para detectar un efecto del 10% con una potencia de 0,81. En el escenario B, cinco repeticiones lograron una potencia del 0,86 para detectar un efecto del 15%, mientras que nueve repeticiones fueron requeridas para detectar un efecto del 10% con una potencia del 0,82. En ninguno de los dos escenarios se alcanzó una potencia del 0,80 para detectar un efecto del 5%. Conclusión. Mientras más pequeño sea el tamaño del efecto a detectar y mayor sea la varianza residual, se requerirá más repeticiones para lograr una potencia de prueba del 0,80. Se deben considerar estos dos factores al planificar experimentos en agricultura.

Abstract Introduction.The effect size and variability are relevant factors in estimating the number of repetitions in an experiment, where their impact is often unknown to the researcher. Objetive. To analyze the effect of the variability and effect size on the number of repetitions required in agricultural research. Materials and methods. The spatial correlation parameters estimated from the uniformity trial in the rice crop were used to perform 10,000 simulations of random fields. In each simulation, 16 experimental units of 24 m2 were formed, and an analysis of variance was adjusted to estimate the average residual variance, called scenario A. Additionally, a scenario B was proposed, where the 95th percentile of the estimated variances was used. The effect size was defined based on the results of a meta-analysis on the effect of agricultural practices on rice yield, and resulted in a 15% of the overall mean of the uniformity trial data. Additional effect sizes of 10% and 5% of the overall mean were also proposed. Results. In scenario A, four repetitions were needed to achieve a power of 0.91 and detect a 15% effect, while six repetitions were necessary to detect a 10% effect with a power of 0.81. In scenario B, five repetitions achieved a power of 0.86 to detect a 15% effect, while nine repetitions were required to detect a 10% effect with a power of 0.82. Neither of the scenarios achieved a power 0.80 to detect a 5% effect. Conclusion. The smaller the effect size to be detected and the greater the residual variance, the more repetitions were required to achieve a test power of 0.80. These two factors should be considered when planning experiments in agriculture.

Abstract The clinical diagnosis process involves executing a series of sequential steps. It begins with the formulation of a pre-test diagnostic probability, followed by the application of a diagnostic test, the result of which often improves the initially proposed probability, resulting in a post-test diagnostic probability. This process is an example of Bayesian inference, where diagnostic probabilities are calculated using equations derived from Bayes' theorem. This educational article provides a detailed explanation based on a real example of how to calculate the post-test diagnostic probability, following a Bayesian approach.

Resumen El proceso de diagnóstico clínico implica la ejecución de una serie de pasos secuenciales. Su punto de partida es la formulación de una probabilidad diagnóstica pre-test, seguida de la aplicación de una prueba diagnóstica, cuyo resultado suele mejorar la probabilidad inicialmente planteada, dando lugar a una probabilidad post-test de diagnóstico. Este proceso es un ejemplo de inferencia bayesiana, donde las probabilidades diagnósticas se calculan a partir de ecuaciones derivadas del teorema de Bayes. El presente artículo, de carácter docente, explica de manera detallada, y en base a un ejemplo real, la forma en que se calcula la probabilidad de diagnóstico post-test, siguiendo un enfoque bayesiano.

Resumen: Este artículo se pregunta por qué comunidades similares del norte argentino responden de manera distinta a proyectos de explotación de litio en sus territorios. El argumento sostiene que las respuestas de aceptación o rechazo dependen de si el encuadre de estas comunidades ante el proyecto minero es compensatorio o autonomista, lo que se inscribe en procesos comunitarios de reivindicación indígena tempranos o tardíos. El estudio se llevó a cabo entre 2009 y 2019 en las comunidades de Salinas Grandes y de Olaroz en la Puna argentina. La estrategia metodológica combina el análisis en profundidad de cada caso y su posterior comparación. En tanto que el ejercicio de inferencia causal utiliza técnicas de rastreo del proceso.

Abstract: This article asks why similar communities in northern Argentina respond differently to lithium exploitation projects in their territories. The general argument states that the different frames that the communities build, trigger demands of recognition or redistribution, and generate processes that produce divergent responses. Also, these frameworks are part of community processes of indigenous claims. The difference in the community processes of indigenous vindication early and late contribute to the construction of different frames: compensatory and autonomist. The study focuses on the communities of Salinas Grandes and Olaroz in the Argentine Puna, between 2009 and 2019. The methodological strategy combines within-case analysis and subsequent cross-case analysis. For the causal inference exercise, process tracing techniques are used.

Abstract Objectives In the clinical routine of pediatricians, height is the most reliable indicator for assessing growth. However, there are situations where it is not possible to measure this parameter directly, making the estimation of height or length a useful alternative. The main goal of this study is to identify which segmental measure, including upper arm length (UAL), tibial length (TL), and knee-heel length (KHL), provides the stature estimate that most closely approximates directly measured height in the study participants. Methods Analytical cross-sectional study of the anthropometric and segmental measures of 248 participants, aged 0 to 14 years old, using Stevenson's and Kihara's equations to estimate indirectly measured height. Results The segmental measure that provided a measurement that deviated the least from the actual height was the KHL, followed by TL, both calculated using Stevenson's equations. Conclusion The use of segmental measures to infer a child's stature is valuable in clinical practice, particularly in bedridden and incapacitated patients. Based on the present findings, the KHL and TL segments yielded more accurate results than the UAL pediatricians growth However alternative UAL, , (UAL) (TL) kneeheel knee heel (KHL) participants crosssectional cross sectional 24 1 old Stevensons Stevenson s Kiharas Kihara childs child practice patients findings (UAL (TL (KHL 2

Abstract: Concrete is the most frequently used construction material in Ecuador. Two characteristics considered for its design are compressive strength and modulus of elasticity. The latter is conventionally calculated in relation to the former using equations established in design codes. However, research has shown that these equations do not accurately reflect the reality in Ecuador, as the modulus of elasticity depends not only on compressive strength but also on other variables such as aggregate origin, type of cement, production process, among others. In this study, a model using fuzzy logic is developed to estimate the modulus of elasticity by applying an ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference Systems) logical inference system. Previous laboratory test data are used as prior knowledge to create membership functions (MFs) and fuzzy conditional rules (If-Then) to estimate new modulus of elasticity. In addition to compressive strength, other important variables are considered in the determination of the modulus of elasticity. The results are favorable, with a correlation coefficient R2=0.988 and a standard deviation S=0.097, indicating that the logical inference system (LIS) is capable of developing a unique model that allows considering all variables that influence the determination of the modulus of elasticity and providing reliable results.

Resumen: El hormigón es el material principal utilizado en la construcción en Ecuador. Para su diseño, se consideran dos características: la resistencia a la compresión y el módulo de elasticidad. El módulo de elasticidad se calcula convencionalmente en relación con la resistencia a la compresión, mediante ecuaciones establecidas en códigos de diseño. Sin embargo, investigaciones han demostrado que estas ecuaciones no reflejan con precisión la realidad en Ecuador, ya que el módulo de elasticidad no solo depende de la resistencia a la compresión, sino también de otras variables como el origen del agregado, el tipo de cemento, el proceso de producción, entre otros. En este estudio, se desarrolla un modelo que utiliza la teoría de lógica difusa para estimar el módulo de elasticidad. Se emplea un sistema de inferencia lógica ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference Systems), utilizando datos previos de ensayos de laboratorio como conocimiento previo para crear funciones de membresía (FMs) y reglas difusas del tipo condicional (If-Then) para estimar nuevos datos del módulo de elasticidad. Además de la resistencia a la compresión, se consideran otras variables importantes en la determinación del módulo de elasticidad. Los resultados son favorables, con un coeficiente de correlación R2=0.988 y una desviación estándar S=0.097, lo que indica que el sistema de inferencia lógica (SIL) es capaz de desarrollar un modelo único que permite considerar todas las variables que influyen en la determinación del módulo de elasticidad y proporcionar valores confiables.

ABSTRACT. The Pacific hake Merluccius productus is a commercially important species on the west coast of North America. A non-exploited population south of the Baja California Peninsula known as dwarf hake, from which little is known, has been described. The present study analyzed the age and growth of the dwarf hake off the west coast of Baja California Sur, Mexico. A subsample of 240 otoliths and standard length (SL) data from 932 specimens captured from May to December 2015 was used. The annual formation of increments in otoliths was verified by marginal increment ratio and edge analysis. Age was estimated from transversal sectioned otolith annuli counts, and SL growth was analyzed using a multimodel inference approach. The von Bertalanffy growth model (VBGM), generalized VBGM, Gompertz, logistic, and Johnson growth models were fitted to observed and back-calculated length-at-age data sets grouped by sex. SL records ranged from 11.5 to 27.5 cm, where females reached a larger size and older ages than males. The age structure was well represented for the first six years, with a mode at three years age class and maximum longevity registered in a female of 10 years. According to Akaike's information criterion, the generalized VBGM was most appropriate for females (L∞ = 31.36 cm, k = 0.15), while VBGM provided the best fit for males (L∞ = 25.35 cm, k = 0.28 cm yr-1). The parameter values suggest that the dwarf hake is a fast-growing, small-size fish. These results provide the first estimated growth parameters for the dwarf hake off the southernmost limit of the Baja California Peninsula.

Resumen Actualmente la práctica clínica debe integrar la medicina basada en la evidencia. Esto requiere un método científico riguroso que incluye identificar una incertidumbre del conocimiento (el problema), formular una pregunta, realizar una búsqueda sistemática de la evidencia disponible, seleccionar la mejor evidencia válida, interpretarla y aplicarla, y si no existe esta evidencia, el científico (el médico) debe generar ese conocimiento a través de un diseño de investigación. Una parte del proceso metodológico es el análisis estadístico, que a modo de ejemplo consiste en introducir los datos clínicos (la base de datos de un estudio) en una máquina estadística que tiene varias opciones de procesos matemáticos (calcular estadígrafos) para adquirir un resultado el cual debe ser validado, interpretado y analizado de modo que justifique su aplicabilidad real. Esta revisión consiste en contextualizar algunos conceptos básicos estadísticos y propone organizar de una manera sucinta unos pasos para realizar un análisis estadístico, el cual tiene como objetivo motivar a su profundización para generar una visión crítica a la hora de revisar un diseño de investigación.

Abstract Currently, clinical practice must integrate evidence-based medicine. This requires a rigorous scientific method that includes identifying a knowledge uncertainty (the problem), formulating a question, conducting a systematic search of the available evidence, selecting the best valid evidence, interpreting and applying it, and if this evidence does not exist, the scientist (the physician) must generate that knowledge through a research design. A part of the methodological process is statistical analysis, which, for example, involves inputting clinical data (the study’s database) into a statistical machine that has various mathematical processing options (calculating statistical metrics) to obtain a result that must be validated, interpreted, and analyzed to justify its real-world applicability. This review aims to contextualize some basic statistical concepts and proposes a succinctly organized set of steps for conducting a statistical analysis, which is intended to encourage further exploration to develop a critical perspective when reviewing a research design.

Resumen El artículo tiene como objetivo comprender las estrategias de lectura inferencial de textos en inglés utilizadas por estudiantes hispanohablantes de grado once. La metodología empleada en el estudio tiene un enfoque cualitativo y su diseño está enmarcado en un caso colectivo. Se utilizaron un test de lectura y una entrevista semiestructurada como herramientas de recolección de datos. La investigación contó con la participación de cinco estudiantes de grado once de una institución educativa pública en Medellín, Colombia. Durante el estudio, los estudiantes realizaron la lectura de cuatro tipos de textos: descriptivo, narrativo, expositivo y argumentativo. Los resultados indicaron que las estrategias inferenciales más utilizadas fueron las retroactivas, mientras que las lógicas y proyectivas se aplicaron con menor frecuencia. Como conclusión, se sugiere la creación de estrategias de prelectura que enriquezcan la comprensión situacional y lingüística del texto, así como promover la relectura entre los estudiantes, como medios para fortalecer la lectura inferencial en inglés para estudiantes de habla hispana.

Abstract This article aims to understand the inferential reading strategies employed by Spanish-speaking eleventh-grade students when reading English texts. The methodology used adopts a qualitative approach and its design is framed within a collective case. The instruments employed in this study were a reading test and a semi-structured interview. The study involved the participation of five eleventh-grade students from a public educational institution in the city of Medellin, Colombia. These students engaged in four readings encompassing descriptive, narrative, expository, and argumentative texts. The results showed that the most frequently applied inference strategies were retroactive, while the least frequently applied were logical and projective. The study concludes that enhancing inferential reading in English among Spanish-speaking students necessitates the development of pre-reading strategies that contribute to both situational and linguistic understanding of the text, as well as promoting re-reading practices among students.