Abstract Introduction: The Aedes vittatus mosquito is an important vector of yellow fever in Africa, with vectorial competence for dengue, chikungunya and Zika. Its presence has been reported in some places in Africa, Asia, Europe, and -recently- America. However, information on its distribution is fragmented, with limited descriptions of the specific characteristics of its habitats. Objective: To compile records of its occurrence, describe the ecological characteristics of its habitat and estimate its current and future global potential invasion. Methods: We employed both first-record data and global occurrence records to describe its habitat. Additionally, we used an ecological niche model, specifically the MaxEnt algorithm, with bioclimatic variable layers to estimate potential invasion areas. Since the native range of A. vittatus is unknown, we calibrated accessible areas using two hypotheses, Africa and Asia, based on available genetic information. Results: Regardless of its native area, A. vittatus appears to be distributed in tropical and subtropical areas in all continents with potential to reach even currently colder climates as global climate change. It is found mainly in tropical and urban areas, likely through transcontinental and terrestrial passive transport. Conclusions: The mosquito can be found on all continents, ranging from sea level to 2 500 m.a.s.l., at temperatures between 15 and 30 °C, and has the potential for further expansion.

Resumen Introducción: El mosquito Aedes vittatus es un importante vector de la fiebre amarilla en África, con competencia vectorial para el dengue, la chikungunya y el Zika. Se ha informado de su presencia en algunas áreas de África, Asia, Europa y, recientemente, América. Sin embargo, la información sobre su distribución es fragmentada, con descripciones limitadas de las características específicas de sus hábitats. Objetivo: Recopilar registros de su presencia, describir las características ecológicas de su hábitat y estimar su potencial de invasión actual y futuro a nivel mundial. Métodos: Utilizamos datos de primeros registros y registros de presencia a nivel global para describir su hábitat. Además, empleamos un modelo de nicho ecológico, específicamente el algoritmo MaxEnt, con capas de variables bioclimáticas para estimar las áreas de potencial invasión. Dado que se desconoce el área nativa de A. vittatus, calibramos áreas accesibles bajo dos hipótesis, África y Asia, basadas en la información genética disponible. Resultados: Independientemente de su área nativa, A. vittatus parece distribuirse en regiones tropicales y subtropicales en todos los continentes, con el potencial de expandirse incluso hacia climas actualmente más fríos debido al cambio climático global. Se encuentra principalmente en áreas tropicales y urbanas, posiblemente a través del transporte pasivo transcontinental y terrestre. Conclusiones: El mosquito se puede encontrar en todos los continentes, desde el nivel del mar hasta altitudes de 2 500 m.s.n.m., a temperaturas que oscilan entre 15 y 30 °C, y presenta el potencial para una mayor expansión geográfica.

Resumo A biodiversidade global encontra-se sob ameaça substancial devido às invasões biológicas, um problema agravado pelas mudanças climáticas. Tais invasões têm efeitos prejudiciais sobre o meio ambiente, economia e saúde humana, resultando em encargos financeiros significativos. Recentemente, a compreensão desses desafios se tornou prioridade destacada na comunidade científica. Este estudo se concentra na avaliação do Schinus terebinthifolia, nativa da América do Sul, e sua disseminação invasiva para a América do Norte e Central, o que resultou em ampla distribuição e impacto considerável. Os principais objetivos deste estudo consistem em analisar a distribuição potencial da espécie sob cenários climáticos atuais e futuros, identificando as áreas onde seu nicho climático está se alterando. A coleta abrangeu um vasto conjunto de mais de 30.000 registros de ocorrências da espécie, nas bases de bados (1) Global Biodiversity Information Facility com 22.163 registros (GBIF), (2) O Herbário virtual Reflora com 1.438 registros e o NeoTropTree com 6.591 registros e após um processo de filtragem, 992 ocorrências foram consideradas para modelagem. Nesse processo, empregamos dados climáticos e projeções climáticas, recorrendo a diversos algoritmos, com destaque para a metodologia do modelo de consenso. Os resultados da pesquisa revelam uma clara tendência de redução na adequação do habitat da S. terebinthifolia, especialmente sob cenários de elevado aquecimento global. Isso acentua a urgência da implementação de medidas de controle de emissões e estratégias de mitigação. Adicionalmente, o estudo ressalta a importância crucial da vigilância contínua, bem como das ações de controle e restauração de ecossistemas afetados. O papel relevante desempenhado por S. terebinthifolia em suas áreas nativas e invadidas chama a atenção para a necessidade de adotar abordagens de manejo abrangentes. Diante do cenário de mudanças climáticas e das ameaças à biodiversidade, este estudo contribui com perspicazes observações sobre a dinâmica das invasões biológicas. O sucesso na abordagem dessas questões depende de uma cooperação estreita entre a comunidade científica, legisladores, gestores de terras e as comunidades locais. Essa colaboração é essencial para orientar e conduzir os esforços de conservação e gestão da biodiversidade em um mundo em constante evolução. encontrase encontra biológicas ambiente humana significativos Recentemente científica Sul Central considerável futuros alterando 30000 30 000 30.00 1 (1 22163 22 163 22.16 GBIF, GBIF , (GBIF) 2 (2 1438 438 1.43 6591 6 591 6.59 filtragem 99 modelagem algoritmos consenso S mitigação Adicionalmente contínua afetados abrangentes legisladores locais evolução 3000 3 00 30.0 ( 2216 16 22.1 (GBIF 143 43 1.4 659 59 6.5 9 300 0 30. 221 22. 14 4 1. 65 5 6.

Abstract Global biodiversity is under substantial threat due to biological invasions, a problem exacerbated by climate change. Such invasions have detrimental effects on the environment, economy, and human health, resulting in significant financial burdens. Recently, understanding these challenges has become a highlighted priority within the scientific community. This study focuses on the evaluation of Schinus terebinthifolia, native to South America, and its invasive spread into North and Central America, which has resulted in wide distribution and considerable impact. The primary objectives of this study include analyzing the potential distribution of the species under current and future climate scenarios, identifying the areas where its climatic niche is changing. Data collection encompassed a vast dataset of over 30,000 occurrence records of this species, from the following databases: (1) The Global Biodiversity Information Facility provided 22,163 records (GBIF), (2) The virtual Herbarium Reflora contributed 1,438 records, and NeoTropTree made available 6,591 records. Following a rigorous filtering process, 992 occurrences were considered for modeling. In this process, we utilized climate data and climate projections, employing various algorithms, with an emphasis on the consensus model methodology. The research results reveal a clear trend of reduced habitat suitability for S. terebinthifolia, especially under scenarios of high global warming. This accentuates the urgency of implementing emission control measures and mitigation strategies. Additionally, the study underscores the crucial importance of continuous monitoring, as well as actions for controlling and restoring affected ecosystems. The significant role played by S. terebinthifolia in both its native and invaded areas highlights the need for comprehensive management approaches. In the face of climate change and biodiversity threats, this study provides insightful observations on the dynamics of biological invasions. Success in addressing these issues relies on close cooperation between the scientific community, policymakers, land managers, and local communities. This collaboration is essential for guiding and conducting conservation and biodiversity management efforts in an ever-evolving world. environment economy health burdens Recently community America impact changing 30000 30 000 30,00 databases 1 (1 22163 22 163 22,16 GBIF, GBIF , (GBIF) 2 (2 1438 438 1,43 6591 6 591 6,59 process 99 modeling projections algorithms methodology S warming strategies Additionally monitoring ecosystems approaches threats policymakers managers communities everevolving ever evolving world 3000 3 00 30,0 ( 2216 16 22,1 (GBIF 143 43 1,4 659 59 6,5 9 300 0 30, 221 22, 14 4 1, 65 5 6,

Abstract Adelphobates contains three species, and the inaccurate identification of A. quinquevittatus and the scarcity of records of A. castaneoticus complicate inference of their distributions; the latter species occurs in sympatry with A. galactonotus. Our objective was to revise the distributions of Adelphobates by compiling data and modeling habitat suitability, as range limits may be shaped by landscape features and biotic interactions. We initially analyzed the existence of operational taxonomic units within the nominal species and subsequently inferred the observed and potential distributions, taking into account the possible independent lineages for the three species, and we also generated a molecular timetree to understand the chronology of interspecific diversification events. Adelphobates quinquevittatus was found to have a more easterly distribution than previously described, and specimens with phenotypic variation were found to occur in areas inconsistent with the modeling, and A. castaneoticus was concentrated in the Tapajós-Xingu interfluve, surrounded by A. galactonotus. Models indicated that the right bank of the Xingu River is suitable for both species, indeed, both were found there. Despite Adelphobates species having their distributions delimited by major Amazonian rivers, estimated divergence times predate the formation of the modern river network, suggesting that other mechanisms were involved in their diversification. A galactonotus suitability interactions events described TapajósXingu Tapajós interfluve indeed there rivers network

ABSTRACT Background: Today, the biggest threat to mammalian predators with wide distribution areas is habitats fragmentation or changing climate conditions. We aimed to reveal the habitat suitability modeling and mapping of the Brown bear, which is an important large mammal in Turkey’s borders, under change climate. The habitat suitability modelling was determined using the present (2010) and future (2040-2070-2100) chelsa climate scenarios (IPSL-CM6A-LR SSP126-SSP370-SSP585) Maxent method with the present data obtained by examining all studies on Brown bear. Then, the mapping result values for the different years and scenarios were classified as 0.5 unsuitable habitats, 0.51-0.8 suitable habitats and 0.81-1.0 most suitable habitats. Results: We determined that the variables contributing to the habitat suitability model of Brown bear are annual precipitation amount, the average annual air temperature, the precipitation amount of the wettest month, the ruggedness and elevation. According to the mapping results for different years and scenarios; Brown bear have suitable habitat a minimum of 14.87% of the study area in today, 12.56% in 2040 year, 10.93% in 2070 year and 8.24% in 2100 year. According to the SSP585 climate scenario of 2100 year, the habitat suitability of the Brown bear decreases by approximately 45%. Also, the climate envelope model created with MaxEnt revealed, the change climate in the 2100 year endangered the Brown bear. Conclusion: Therefore, these results will be a source of information for the sustainability of the extinction of the Brown bear, for the pre-protection of existing and potential habitats and for reducing the impact of change climate conditions. Background Today conditions Turkeys Turkey s borders 2010 (2010 204020702100 (2040-2070-2100 IPSLCM6ALR IPSLCMALR IPSL CM6A LR CM A SSP126SSP370SSP585 SSPSSPSSP SSP126 SSP370 SSP SSP126-SSP370-SSP585 Then 05 0 5 0. 0.510.8 05108 0.51 0.8 51 8 0.51-0. 0.811.0 08110 0.81 1.0 81 1 0.81-1. Results temperature month elevation 1487 14 87 14.87 today 1256 12 56 12.56 204 1093 10 93 10.93 207 824 24 8.24 210 SSP58 45 45% Also revealed Conclusion Therefore preprotection pre protection 201 (201 20402070210 (2040-2070-210 IPSLCM ALR CMA SSP126SSP370SSP58 SSP12 SSP37 SSP126-SSP370-SSP58 510 0.510. 0510 051 08 0.51-0 811 0.811. 0811 081 1. 0.81-1 148 14.8 125 12.5 20 109 9 10.9 82 2 8.2 21 SSP5 4 (20 2040207021 (2040-2070-21 SSP126SSP370SSP5 SSP1 SSP3 SSP126-SSP370-SSP5 0.510 0.51- 0.811 0.81- 14. 12. 10. 8. (2 204020702 (2040-2070-2 SSP126SSP370SSP SSP126-SSP370-SSP ( 20402070 (2040-2070- 2040207 (2040-2070 204020 (2040-207 20402 (2040-20 (2040-2 (2040- (2040 (204

Resumen (Introducción): La conservación y restauración del patrimonio ecológico y cultural es una necesidad ante la crisis ambiental, en particular ante los efectos del cambio climático. Lo anterior se puede lograr a través de investigación interdisciplinaria que permita generar estrategias para la restauración de paisajes bioculturales complejos. (Objetivo): Proponer estrategias de restauración ecológica ecocéntrica, biocultural y productiva en Tzintzuntzan (lugar de colibríes), un paisaje dominado por vestigios arqueológicos precolombinas en la ribera del Lago de Patzcuaro, México, ante los efectos esperados del cambio climático. (Metodología): Se elaboró un SIG con información de las condiciones socioambientales del área de estudio, y un modelo de cambio climático para el 2050 y se estimó la pérdida de nivel del lago. (Resultados): A partir de las condiciones actuales de la vegetación, la modelación climática y la presencia de vestigios arqueológicos, se obtuvo que para el 2050 la mayor parte (89 %) del área cubierta por bosques, actualmente dominados por especies de encino y pino, tendrán un clima propicio para especies de selva seca. Dada la distribución de los vestigios arqueológicos y la zona urbana, se proponen estrategias de restauración ecocéntricas, bioculturales y productivas (Conclusiones): Una aproximación biocultural a la restauración es deseable, porque permite la recuperación de elementos ambientales y culturales del socioecosistema, con énfasis en la adaptación al cambio climático y en la recuperación del hábitat de los colibríes, el vínculo más visible entre naturaleza y cultura en la región.

Abstract (Introduction): Conservation and restoration of the ecological and cultural heritage is a necessity given the current environmental crisis, when considering the effects of climate change. This can be achieved through interdisciplinary research that allows the creation of strategies for restoring complex biocultural landscapes. (Objective): To propose strategies for ecocentric, biocultural and productive ecological restoration in Tzintzuntzan (place of hummingbirds) a landscape dominated by precolumbian archaeological remains in the riverbanks of lake Paztcuaro, México, considering the expected effects of climate change. (Metodology): A GIS was created with information about the socio-environmental conditions of the study site, a climate change model was also elaborated for 2050 and the loss of water lake water level was estimated. (Results): From the present conditions of the vegetation, climatic modeling and the presence of archaeological remains we obtained that for 2050 most of the area (89 %) of forests, currently dominated by oaks and pines, will have a climate appropriate for dry tropical vegetation. Considering the distribution of archaeological remains and the urban area we propose ecocentric, biocultural and production restoration strategies. (Conclusions): A biocultural approach to restoration is desirable because it allows the recovery of ecological and cultural elements of the socioecosystem, with an emphasis in adaptation to climate change and the recovery of hummingbird habitat, being the hummingbirds the most important link between nature and culture in the region.

Resumen Introducción: La Rata de Magdalena, Xenomys nelsoni, es un roedor endémico de México, de distribución restringida a las selvas bajas caducifolias densas, en una pequeña región de la costa del Pacífico mexicano. Es una especie poco conocida, catalogada como “En Peligro” de acuerdo con la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (IUCN). Este desconocimiento unido a la alta tasa de deforestación de su hábitat hace que su conservación sea prioritaria. Objetivo: Realizar un recuento histórico de los registros depositados en las colecciones científicas, generar mapas de distribución potencial y analizar el estado de conservación de la especie. Método: Los datos de ocurrencia de las especies se obtuvieron de la literatura y bases de datos digitales y se analizaron por décadas. Se utilizaron los programas GARP y MaxEnt para generar los modelos de nicho ecológico. La importancia de las variables en el modelo se estimó mediante un análisis Jackknife. Resultados: A lo largo de 129 años 19 recolectores registraron 69 ejemplares, de los cuales 65 están depositados en siete colecciones internacionales y una nacional. Aunque la especie sólo se ha recolectado en Jalisco y Colima, la distribución potencial de X. nelsoni incluye también el estado de Michoacán. De esta área estimada, sólo el 1.5 % se encuentra dentro de un Área Natural Protegida. Conclusiones: Los resultados de la distribución potencial podrían ser utilizados para verificar la presencia de la especie en lugares donde no ha sido recolectada como el norte de la Reserva de la Biosfera Chamela-Cuixmala y en algunas zonas de la provincia fisiográfica Costas del Sur en el estado de Michoacán. Es necesario incrementar los muestreos en regiones poco estudiadas predichas por el modelo y aumentar el área de protección.

Abstract Introduction: The Magdalena Rat, Xenomys nelsoni, is a rodent endemic to Mexico, whose distribution is restricted to dense tropical dry forests in a small region on the Pacific coast of Mexico. It is a poorly known species categorized as “Endangered” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This lack of knowledge and the high rates of deforestation of its habitat makes its conservation a priority. Objective: To summarize the historical records deposited in scientific collections, to create potential distribution maps, and to analyze the conservation status of the species. Methods: We obtained species occurrence data from literature and digital databases, analyzing them by the decade. We used GARP and MaxEnt software to generate the ecological niche models. The importance of the variables in the model was estimated using the Jackknife technique. Results: Over 129 years, 19 collectors registered 69 specimens, of which 65 are deposited in one national and seven international collections. Although the species has only been collected in Jalisco and Colima, the potential distribution for X. nelsoni also includes the state of Michoacán. Of this estimated area, only 1.5 % is in a Protected Natural Area. Conclusions: The results of the potential distribution could be used to verify the presence of the species in places where it has not been collected, such as the northern part of the Chamela-Cuixmala Biosphere Reserve and in some areas of the physiographic province Costas del Sur in the state of Michoacán. It is needed to increase samplings in the least studied regions predicted by the model and expand the area of protection.

RESUMEN Los bosques templados mexicanos se encuentran entre los más biodiversos del mundo. En la actualidad enfrentan presiones antrópicas aunadas al cambio climático. Quercus candicans es una especie dominante en el dosel, ampliamente distribuida, común en las zonas húmedas de estos ecosistemas. Su importancia ecológica, la vulnerabilidad de su hábitat y su amplia distribución lo convierten en un modelo útil para evaluar la vulnerabilidad de las especies forestales arbóreas mexicanas al cambio climático. Se utilizó la modelación de nicho ecológico para estimar la idoneidad climática futura de esta especie y los posibles cambios de su distribución potencial en dos escenarios de emisiones y tres periodos de tiempo. También se identificaron las áreas donde podrían surgir nuevos climas y donde las predicciones deben interpretarse con cautela. Además, se analizó cómo podría cambiar la idoneidad climática en todo el sistema nacional de áreas protegidas. En ambos escenarios de emisiones, se predijo que las áreas con condiciones climáticas adecuadas experimentarían una reducción neta de más del 40% para 2070. Esto corresponde a más de 100 000 km2 que potencialmente pueden ser climáticamente inadecuados. En las áreas protegidas nacionales, se proyecta una contracción de aproximadamente 30%. Los climas nuevos, es decir, aquellos no presentes en la actualidad, pueden aumentar de manera considerable en el escenario de mayores emisiones (RCP 8.5), representando el 10% de las montañas templadas mexicanas, en comparación con el 1% en el RCP 4.5. El incremento en áreas idóneas que no se entrecruzan con nuevos climas ocurre en zonas altamente afectadas por el cambio en el uso de la tierra y otras presiones antrópicas. La protección oportuna y eficaz de las especies arbóreas de bosques templados (como Q. candicans) debería permitir migraciones a través de gradientes altitudinales, ya que se proyectan áreas de estabilidad e idoneidad climática en las secciones de mayor altitud de las cadenas montañosas.

ABSTRACT Mexican temperate forests are among the most biodiverse in the world. At present, they face anthropogenic pressures and climatic changes. Quercus candicans is a canopy-dominant, widely distributed species common in the moist habitats of these ecosystems. Its ecological importance, habitat vulnerability, and wide distribution make it a useful model of the vulnerability of Mexican tree forest species to climate change. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate future climatic suitability for this species and its potential range shifts under two emissions scenarios and three-time frames. We also identified areas where novel climates could arise and where predictions should be interpreted cautiously. Additionally, we analyzed how climatic suitability could change across the national protected areas system. In both emissions scenarios, areas with suitable climatic conditions were predicted to experience a net reduction of more than 40% by 2070. This corresponds to more than 100 000 km2 becoming climatically unsuitable. In the national protected areas, we forecast a contraction of approximately 30%. Climatic novelty increased considerably in the higher emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), accounting for 10% of the Mexican temperate mountains, compared to 1% on RCP 4.5. Areas of expansion of suitability not intersected by novel climates occur in areas highly affected by land-use change and other anthropogenic pressures. Effective protection of temperate forests’ tree species such as Q. candicans would need to allow migrations across altitudinal gradients, as areas of stability and expansion of climatic suitability are forecasted to occur at higher altitude sections of mountain ranges.

Abstract The National Institute for Research on Forests, Agriculture and Livestock (INIFAP) has six Forest Systems, among them, the Forest Plantations System (FPS), which includes three research lines, nine products to be obtained, and three specific objectives. The aim of this work was to compile and analyze information of research publications in books and scientific journals made in the FPS 35 years after the creation of INIFAP. A search was made on the websites of publications between 1985 and 2021 of books and articles in scientific journals, using keywords. We analyzed 9 works related to the ecological characterization of degraded habitat, 26 on the production of quality plants that have had an impact on components to produce millions of plants, and 61 for the establishment and management of CFPs; 84.2 % deal with the growth species, of which in 2020 the existence of 230 341 ha of CFPs and 101 577 ha of agroforestry systems (AS) were reported. These research studies have served as the basis for implementing development programs that contribute to the economy of rural inhabitants at the regional and national levels.

Resumen El Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias (INIFAP) cuenta con seis Sistemas Forestales (SF) para fortalecer la investigación. Dentro de ellos, el Sistema de Plantaciones Forestales (SPF) incluye tres líneas de investigación, nueve productos por obtener y tres objetivos específicos. El objetivo de este trabajo fue compilar y analizar la información de publicaciones de investigación en libros y revistas científicas realizadas en el SPF del INIFAP a los 35 años de su creación. Se hizo una búsqueda en sitios de la web de publicaciones entre 1985 y 2021 de libros y artículos científicos, usando palabras clave. Se analizaron nueve trabajos relacionados con la caracterización ecológica de hábitat degradado, que son la base para el establecimiento de plantaciones forestales de reforestación (PFR) con al menos 86 especies de importancia comercial, 26 sobre producción de plantas de calidad que han tenido impacto en componentes para producir millones de plantas y 61 para establecimiento y manejo de PFC, donde 84.2 % son sobre el crecimiento de las especies, de las cuales en 2020 se reporta la existencia de 230 341 ha de PFC y 101 577 ha de sistemas agroforestales (SA). Estas investigaciones han sido la base para implementar programas de desarrollo que contribuyen a la economía de los habitantes rurales a nivel regional y nacional.

Resumo: Informações sobre distribuição, número de populações e interações bióticas são essenciais para avaliar o status de ameaça das espécies e estabelecer iniciativas de conservação mais eficazes. A modelagem de nicho ecológico tem sido aplicada com sucesso para identificar a distribuição potencial, mesmo para espécies raras que possuem poucos pontos de ocorrência registrados. Neste estudo, avaliamos a distribuição potencial e adicionalmente geramos os primeiros dados sobre a biologia reprodutiva de Discocactus ferricola, devido ao seu grau de ameaça e à ausência de dados ecológicos para essa espécie. O mapa de distribuição potencial destacou áreas com maior probabilidade de ocorrência de D. ferricola no Planalto Residual do Maciço do Urucum localizado em Mato Grosso do Sul, Brasil. A ocorrência de populações de D. ferricola foi limitada aos afloramentos ferruginosos planos (cangas) que são distribuídos em manchas pela paisagem, aumentando as chances de ameaças graves, como perda de habitat devido à mineração e extração da espécie. Também descobrimos que D. ferricola é xenogâmica. Portanto, ações de conservação in situ devem priorizar a manutenção das interações com os polinizadores através da preservação da flora e da fauna nos afloramentos rochosos e florestas adjacentes nas áreas de maior adequabilidade ambiental para D. ferricola. Nesse estudo, nós destacamos o uso da modelagem de nicho ecológico e de dados sobre interações bióticas para avaliar a distribuição potencial de espécies, orientar novos esforços de amostragem e auxiliar iniciativas de conservação e manejo.

Abstract: Information on distribution, number of populations, and biotic interactions are essential for assessing the threat status of species and to establish more effective conservation initiatives. Ecological niche modeling have been successfully applied to identify the potential distribution, even for rare species that have few recorded occurrence points. In this study, we evaluated the potential distribution and additionally generated the first data on the reproductive biology of Discocactus ferricola, due to its degree of threat and the absence of ecological data for that species. The potential distribution map highlighted areas with higher probability of occurrence of D. ferricola on the Residual Plateau of Maciço do Urucum located in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The occurrence of D. ferricola populations was limited to outcrops of flat ironstone (cangas) distributed in patches across the landscape, increasing the chances of serious threats, such as habitat loss due to mining and species extraction. We also found that D. ferricola is xenogamous. Therefore, in situ conservation actions must prioritize the maintenance of interactions with pollinators by preserving the flora and fauna of rocky outcrops and adjacent forests in areas of greater environmental suitability for D. ferricola. Our study highlights the use of ecological niche modeling and data on biotic interactions to evaluate species potential distribution, to guide new sampling efforts, and to assist conservation and management initiatives.

Abstract Global biodiversity loss by anthropogenic impacts is an under-recognized form of global environmental change. Global defaunation is still poorly documented in the case of insects, showing a significant decrease in populations and diversity. The blowfly Neta chilensis (Walker 1837) is poorly known and presumed to be confined to southern-South America, with an unclear distributional pattern. It was last collected in 1984. We aimed, through Ecological Niche Models, to identify regions highly suitable for N. chilensis; to test the suitability of regions with doubtful records; to understand the impact that climatic change and human activities have had; and to identify regions with high chances to find it. We compiled 130 presence records from Argentina and Chile and 117 localities where it was sought but not found between 1987 and 2018. Results indicate that suitable conditions are restricted to southern and central Chile and to southwestern Argentina, that doubtful records are predicted in unsuitable areas, that N. chilensis occupies a narrow niche and that its decline is not mainly caused by climate changes but more probably to habitat loss and to the biological invasion. We identified two regions where the chances of finding the species are higher in the case that it is not extinct already.

RESUMO Stryphnodendron pulcherrimum é uma espécie medicinal usada entre as comunidades tradicionais da Amazônia devido à sua atividade bactericida e propriedades anti-infamatórias. Apesar de estar adaptada a ambientes rústicos, não há informações de como as mudanças climáticas poderão afetar a ocorrência da espécie. Objetivou-se avaliar a distribuição natural de S. pulcherrimum no período atual e como sua distribuição geográfica potencial poderá ser afetada diante de cenários de mudanças climáticas futuras nos domínios ftogeográficos brasileiros. Foram utilizadas 19 variáveis bioclimáticas a partir da base de dados do WorldClim. Quatro modelos de algoritmo (Climate Space Model, Envelope Score, Niche Mosaic e Enviromental Distance - presente) e um software (Open Modeller - futuro) foram utilizados para verificar a ocorrência potencial de S. pulcherrimum em cinco domínios (Amazônia, Cerrado, Caatinga, Mata Atlântica e Pantanal) e três períodos (2009-2019 - presente; 2020-2050 e 2051-2070 - futuro). Houve perdas de áreas favoráveis à ocorrência de S. pulcherrimum na Amazônia, Cerrado e Pantanal, e as mudanças climáticas globais poderão afetar sua distribuição natural especialmente na Mata Atlântica e Amazônia, sendo que, na Amazônia, a espécie pode estar totalmente extinta, no cenário mais pessimista, até 2070.

ABSTRACT Stryphnodendron pulcherrimum is a species used medicinally among traditional Amazonian communities for its bactericidal activity and anti-inflammatory properties. Despite being adapted to rustic environments, there is no information regarding how climate change might affect the species occurrence. The present study aimed to evaluate the natural distribution of S. pulcherrimum in the current period and how its potential geographic distribution may be affected in response to future climate change scenarios in Brazilian phytogeographic domains. A total of 19 bioclimatic variables were used from the WorldClim database. Four algorithm models (Climate Space Model, Envelope Score, Niche Mosaic and Environmental Distance - present) and one software (Open Modeller - future) were used to verify the potential occurrence of S. pulcherrimum in five Brazilian domains (Amazon, Cerrado, Caatinga, Atlantic Forest and Pantanal) and three intervals (2009-2019 - present; 2020-2050 and 2051-2070 - future). There were losses of areas favorable to the occurrence of S. pulcherrimum in the Amazon, Cerrado and Pantanal, and global climate change may affect its natural distribution especially in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon. In the Amazon, the species may be totally extinct, in the worst scenario, by 2070.

Resumo A variabilidade da estrutura de assembleia de peixes em relação à sazonalidade da salinidade e produtividade ainda não foi elucidada para muitos estuários Neotropicais. Neste estudo, testamos a hipótese de que um conjunto de variáveis relacionadas à produtividade e ao gradiente de salinidade estuarino determina a estrutura da ictiofauna de habitats rasos do eixo norte-sul do Complexo Estuarino de Paranaguá (litoral sul brasileiro). As amostras foram obtidas mensalmente com “picaré”, entre maio de 2000 e abril de 2001. Corroborando com a hipótese, riqueza e abundância aumentaram em águas mais turvas e quentes nas estações chuvosas e produtivas de verão, favorecendo reprodução, bem como recrutamento e crescimento juvenil que são mais intensos neste período. Abundância foi maior nas zonas internas, devido à maior oferta de alimento e habitat. Riqueza foi maior em águas mais salinas, devido à proximidade da ictiofauna marinha, que é mais rica. Sugerimos que intervenções humanas locais (como dragagem) sejam evitadas nas estações chuvosas que são críticas para o ciclo de vida das espécies. Salinização, redução da produtividade estuarina e águas mais quentes, esperadas com a mudança climática global e impactos humanos na bacia hidrográfica local, poderão afetar a integridade da ictiofauna local.

Abstract The variability of fish assemblage structure with respect to seasonality in salinity and productivity remains to be elucidate to many Neotropical estuaries. In this study, we hypothesized that salinity gradient and a set of variables related to ecosystem productivity drive community parameters in the shallow-water fish assemblage of the north-south axis of the Paranaguá Estuarine Complex (Southern Brazilian coast). Samples were taken with beach seine monthly from May 2000 to April 2001. Supporting our hypothesis, richness and abundance increased with turbidity, warmer waters of the rainier summer seasons, which are more productive. This environmental setting favors reproduction, as well as juvenile recruitment and growth, whose intensities are highest in this period. Highest abundance was found in inner areas, which may be explained by greater food and habitat availability. Richness was higher in more saline waters, due to the proximity of the rich pool of marine fish species. We suggest that local human interventions (e.g., dredging) should be avoided during the rainy seasons that are critical for species life cycles. Salinization, low estuarine productivity, and warmer waters, which are expected with climate change and human impacts in the local watershed, could affect the integrity of the local fish assemblage.

Resumo Objetivo Realizar inferências sobre a qualidade dos cursos d’água e sua conservação, através do modelo de adequabilidade de habitat de Campylocia burmeisteri. Métodos A modelagem utilizou vinte e cinco registros de ocorrência, sendo doze dados de treino e treze dados de teste. A área de estudo consistiu em uma zona de amortecimento de 300 quilômetros aplicada sobre os registros de ocorrência. Como dados ambientais, usamos um conjunto de vinte e duas camadas ambientais (19 variáveis bioclimáticas disponíveis no Worldclim; altitude do Worldclim; declividade, obtida com geoprocessamento no ArcGis v10.3 usando a variável altitude; e densidade de drenagem fornecida pela Ambdata). Essas camadas foram transformadas pela lógica fuzzy para representar variação contínua, e dados mais significativos foram selecionados após ACP. Para indicação de novas áreas de levantamentos, selecionamos locais com significativa probabilidade de ocorrência e distantes dos pontos de ocorrência. Para analisar qualidade potencial do curso d'água, observamos a integridade ambiental, por meio de imagens de satélite, em zona de amortecimento de dez quilômetros da Reserva da Biosfera Serra do Espinhaço. Resultados Regiões escolhidas com maior probabilidade de ocorrência totalizaram nove novas áreas para levantamento. Estas estão concentradas em áreas de interflúvios e próximas a Unidades de Conservação. Realizamos análise focada na região da Reserva da Biosfera Serra do Espinhaço e delimitamos sete áreas que apresentaram boa adequação de habitat. A região foi observada por meio de imagens de satélite, e cinco das áreas apresentaram alta integridade ecológica. Duas áreas apresentaram impactos da atividade minerária. Conclusões O padrão de distribuição corrobora as características da espécie como bioindicador de boa qualidade de água. Estima-se que essa metodologia possa ser adaptada e aplicada a outros bioindicadores. As áreas, onde estão presentes nascentes e tributários de baixa ordem, devem ser conservadas, pois são fundamentais para manter a qualidade na respectiva bacia hidrográfica.

Abstract: Aim This paper aims to make inferences about the quality of watercourses, and its conservation, through the habitat suitability model of Campylocia burmeisteri. Methods The modelling demanded twenty-five occurrence records, twelve as training data and thirteen as test data. The study area consisted of a 300 kilometers buffer zone applied over the occurrence records. We used a set of twenty-two environmental layers as ambient data, as follows: 19 bioclimatic variables available on Worldclim; altitude from Worldclim; slope, obtained through geoprocessing in ArcGis v10.3 with altitude variable; and drainage density provide by Ambdata. These layers were transformed by the use of fuzzy logic to represent a continuous variation, and thus the most significant data was select after a PCA. To indicated to new surveys areas, we define locations with significant occurrence probability and distant from occurrence points. And, lastly, we observed the environmental integrity to analyze the potential watercourse quality, by using satellite images, in a buffer zone of ten kilometers from Espinhaço Range Biosphere Reserve. Results The chosen regions with the highest occurrence probability, which account for 9 new survey areas, are concentrated in interfluvial areas and near conservation units. We performed an analysis focused on the region of the Espinhaço Range Biosphere Reserve and delimited seven areas that presented good habitat suitability. The region was observed using satellite images, and five of the areas presented high ecological integrity. Two areas showed impacts from mining activity. Conclusions The distribution pattern corroborates the features of the species as a bioindicator of good water quality. It is estimated that this methodology can be adapted and applied to other bioindicators. The areas where headwaters and low-order tributaries are present must be conserved, because they are fundamental for maintaining the quality within the respective watershed.

Resumo No presente estudo apresentamos exemplos de avanços significativos nas pesquisas com anfíbios financiadas pela Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP), focando em descobertas recentes nos campos de ecologia de comunidades, modificação do habitat, doenças infecciosas e o sequenciamento de DNA com múltiplos propósitos. Demonstramos que a FAPESP tem sido fundamental não somente pelo financiamento direto de projetos de pesquisa e bolsas de estudo, mas também através de sua política de formação científica, fomentando colaborações internacionais com instituições de pesquisa de excelência mundial, melhorando e consolidando novas linhas de pesquisa que frequentemente dependem da combinação sinérgica entre diferentes linhas de conhecimento e ferramentas complexas. Enfatizamos que futuros estudos continuem com foco em questões básicas, como a descrição de novas espécies, bem como correções taxonômicas e sistemáticas. Além disso, esperamos uma forte integração entre diferentes disciplinas usando novas ferramentas de bioinformática e abordagens de modelagem, como o aprendizado de máquina. Essas novas abordagens serão críticas para desenvolver ainda mais nossa compreensão a respeito de questões fundamentais sobre as características da história de vida dos anfíbios, transmissão de doenças, estrutura de comunidades, biogeografia e previsões populacionais em diferentes cenários de mudanças globais, como a expansão da agricultura, uso de agrotóxicos, perda de habitat e mudanças climáticas.

Abstract Here, we summarize examples of significant advances in amphibian research supported by the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP), focusing on recent discoveries in the fields of community ecology, habitat change, infection diseases, and multipurpose DNA sequencing. We demonstrated that FAPESP has been fundamental not only by directly funding research projects and scholarships, but also through its science training policy, fostering international collaborations with world-class research institutions, improving and consolidating new lines of research that often depended on a synergetic combination of different knowledge and complex tools. We emphasized that future studies will continue to focus on basic questions, such as description of new species, as well as taxonomic and systematic corrections. Furthermore, we also expect that there will be a strong integration among different disciplines using novel bioinformatics tools and modeling approaches, such as machine learning. These new approaches will be critical to further develop our understanding of foundational questions of amphibian life-history trait variation, disease transmission, community assembly, biogeography, and population forecasts under different global change scenarios such as agricultural expansion, agrochemical use, habitat loss, and climate change.

Abstract Background: Models to determine the habitat suitability of species is becoming important as a relevant geospatial tool in decision-making. Hypothesis: Modeling of current and future habitat suitability of Mexican baldcypress allows identifying potential conservation areas in Mexico. Study species: Taxodium mucronatum Ten. Study site: Mexico. Methods: Distribution records of Mexican baldcypress and climatic, edaphological and topographic variables were processed through the MaxEnt algorithm from where current and future areas for two distribution criteria, habitat suitability and current or riparian ecosystem were estimated, and potential conservation areas identified. Results: An area of 11,217,706.2 and 48,958.5 ha was estimated as potential and current habitat suitability, for two criteria for the Mexican baldcypress, respectively. The most important variable in the model was the average temperature of the coldest quarter. The model for the 2060 and 2070 scenarios forecasted a reduction of 2,989,580.9 ha, and 7,158,929.9 ha, respectively, and a reduction in current area of 12,415.3 ha, and 32,037.1 ha, respectively; sites for conservation were identified in the states of Puebla, Mexico, Guanajuato, and Chiapas. Conclusions: We presented a proposal for conservation and restoration activities of Mexican baldcypress based on the MaxEnt algorithm.

Resumen Antecedentes: Los modelos para determinar la idoneidad de hábitat de especies arbóreas es actualmente una herramienta geoespacial relevante en la toma de decisiones. Hipótesis: La idoneidad de hábitat actual y futura permite identificar zonas potenciales para conservación del ahuehuete en México. Especie de estudio: Taxodium mucronatum Ten. Sitio de estudio: México. Métodos: Se emplearon registros de ahuehuete y variables climáticas, edafológicas y topográficas, las cuales se procesaron a través del algoritmo MaxEnt; se estimaron superficies actuales y futuras para los escenarios 2050, 2070 con dos criterios de distribución, idoneidad de hábitat y ecosistema actual o ripario y se identificaron áreas potenciales para conservación. Resultados: Se estimó una superficie de 11,217,706.2 y 48,958.5 ha como áreas de idoneidad de hábitat, bajo los dos criterios, respectivamente. La variable más importante en el modelo fue la temperatura promedio del trimestre más frío. El modelo predice una reducción en superficie potencial de 2,989,580.9 ha y de 7,158,9829.96 ha para 2050 y 2070, respectivamente. La reducción estimada en la superficie actual es de 12,415.3 ha y 32,037.1 ha, para 2050 y 2070, respectivamente. Se identificaron diversas zonas para conservación en los estados de Puebla, Guanajuato, Estado de México y Chiapas. Conclusiones: En el presente estudio, se generó una propuesta para selección de sitios y desarrollo de actividades de conservación y restauración del ahuehuete en México, mediante el algoritmo MaxEnt.