Ho bohlokoa ho sireletsa libaka tsa tikoloho tse hlokometsoeng joalo ka masimo a arotsoeng bakeng sa meaho ea litoropo le libaka tsa polokelo ea meru, molemong oa lits'ebeletso tsa tikoloho, moruo, sechaba le setso. Leha ho le joalo, libaka tse joalo li tlokotsing ka lebaka la ts'ebeliso ea batho ka ho fapana, ho akarelletsa le matla a naha a litoropong. Ka hona, boithuto bona bo ikemiselitse ho sebelisa mekhoa e bonts'ang maemo a tikoloho esale pele, le ho lekola litlamorao tse ka bang teng nakong e tlang litoropong tse sa tsotelleng tikoloho ho ts'ehetsa mantlha a Leano la Tekolo ea Tikoloho bakeng sa moralo le leano la ntlafatso ea litoropo le libaka. Boithuto bona bo sebelisitse Geographic Information Systems, limmapa tse seng li ntse li le teng tsa ts'ebeliso ea mobu, merero ea ts'ebeliso ea mobu, mohlala o netefalitsoeng oa ts'ebeliso ea mobu, le mekhoa e meng ea maemo ho bolela esale pele maemo a kamoso a lefats'e litoropong ka mohlala oa Markov. Ho sebelisitsoe maikutlo a litsebi a ipapisitseng le mokhoa oa boholo ba tsusumetso ea tikoloho le kutloelo-bohloko ea eona, ele ho hlalosa bohlokoa ba phello ea tikoloho. Ka ho etsa joalo, boholo ba tsusumetso ea tikoloho sebakeng se amehileng sa tikoloho bo arotsoe ka bo tlaase haholo (> 0% <5%), bo tlaase (>5% <10%), bo mahareng (>10% <15%), bo holimo (> 15% <20%), le bo holimo ka ho fetisisa (>20%). Liphuputso li fumane tsusumetso e kholo le e seng ea bohlokoa ea tikoloho litoropong haholo-holo libakeng tse hlokometsoeng tse amanang le litloahelo le maemo a mang. Molemo oa tlhahisoleseling e tsoang phuputsong ena ke ho tshehetsa ba etsang liqeto ho sebetsana le mathata a amanang le tshebetso ea Tekolo ea Tikoloho le moralo oa tshebeliso ea mobu Afrika e ka borwa ho Sahara le likarolong tse ling.
Environmentally sensitive areas such as lands demarcated for urban green infrastructure and regional forest reserves by urban and regional plans are crucial to be protected, due to the environmental, economic, social, and cultural services they provide. However, such environmentally sensitive areas are threatened by various human activities, including urban land dynamics. This study, therefore, aims to deploy scenario alternatives to predict and evaluate the environmental impacts of the possible future urban land dynamics in environmentally sensitive areas to support the core of the Strategic Environmental Assessment process for sustainable urban and regional development planning and policy. The study deployed Geographic Information Systems, existing land-cover maps, land-use plans, calibrated and validated land-use/land-cover model, and scenario alternatives to predict the possible future urban and regional land dynamics using the Markov model. Experts' judgement, based on a matrix method of environmental impact magnitude and environmental sensitivity, was used to define environmental impact significance. In so doing, the environmental impact magnitude in the environmentally sensitive area is categorised into very low (>0% <5%), low (>5% <10%), medium (>10% <15%), high (>15% <20%), and very high (>20%). Key findings showed a significant and non-significant environmental impact of the possible future urban dynamics in environmentally sensitive areas associated with the business-as-usual scenario and alternative scenarios, respectively. The information from this study is useful to support decision makers in addressing problems associated with the applied Strategic Environmental Assessment process and land-use planning in sub-Saharan Africa and other parts of the Global South.
Omgewingsensitiewe gebiede soos lande wat vir stedelike groen infrastruktuur en streeksbosreservate deur stedelike en streeksplanne afgebaken is, is van kardinale belang om beskerm te word weens die omgewings-, ekonomiese, sosiale en kulturele dienste wat hulle verskaf. Sulke omgewingsensitiewe ge-biede word egter bedreig deur verskeie menslike aktiwiteite, insluitend stedelike gronddinamika. Hierdie studie het ten doel om scenario-alternatiewe te ontplooi om die omgewingsimpakte van die moontlike toekomstige stedelike grond-dinamika in omgewingsensitiewe ge-biede te voorspel en te evalueer om die kern van die Strategiese Omgewings-evalueringsproses vir volhoubare stede-like en streeksontwikkelingsbeplanning en -beleid te ondersteun. Die studie het Geografiese Inligtingstelsels, bestaande grondbedekkingskaarte, grondgebruik-planne, gekalibreerde en bekragtigde grondgebruik/grondbedekkingsmodel, en scenario-alternatiewe ontplooi om die moontlike toekomstige stedelike en streeksgronddinamika met behulp van die Markov-model te voorspel. Kenners se oordeel gebaseer op 'n matriksme-tode van omgewingsimpakgrootte en omgewingsensitiwiteit is gebruik om omgewingsimpakbetekenis te definieer. Sodoende word die omgewingsimpa-kgrootte in die omgewingsensitiewe gebied gekategoriseer in baie laag (>0% <5%), laag (>5% <10%), medium (>10% <15%), hoog (>15% <20%), en baie hoog (>20%). Sleutelbevindinge het 'n beduidende en nie-beduidende omgewingsimpak van die moontlike toekomstige stedelike dinamika in omgew-ingsensitiewe gebiede geassosieer met onderskeidelik die "business-as-usual"-scenario asook alternatiewe scenario's getoon. Die inligting uit hierdie studie is nuttig om besluitnemers te ondersteun in die aanspreek van probleme wat verband hou met die toegepaste Strategiese Omgewingsbeoordelingsproses en grondgebruikbeplanning in Afrika suid van die Sahara en ander dele van die Globale Suide.