Die inflasiekoers en die produksiegaping speel 'n belangrike rol in die monetêrebeleidstand-punt. Alhoewel die publiek inflasie redelik goed verstaan, is die produksiegaping 'n relatief onbekende begrip. Definisies van potensiële produksie kan dubbelsinnig wees, aangesien die term dikwels gebruik word om verwante, maar logies afsonderlike, konsepte te beskryf. Die produksiegaping word ook nie direk waargeneem nie en word afgelei uit beramings van potensiële produksie, wat self nie waarneembaar of meetbaar is nie en dus beraam moet word. Hierdie beramings kan egter sensitief wees vir verskillende metodologiese paradigmas en databeskikbaarheid. Die doel van hierdie artikel is om by te dra tot 'n beter begrip van en groter deursigtigheid in plaaslike monetêre beleid deur die rol van die produksiegaping in Suid-Afrikaanse monetêre beleid te verduidelik. Eerstens word die idees onderliggend aan die konsep van die produksiegaping bespreek, waarna 'n werksdefinisie van die produksiegaping in die konteks van monetêre beleid voorgestel word. Verskeie metodologieë en empiriese tegnieke waarvolgens potensiële produksie en die produksiegaping beraam kan word, word bespreek, insluitende eenveranderlike statistiese tegnieke, strukturele modelle en semistrukturele benaderings. Die artikel verduidelik voorts hoe die Suid-Afrikaanse Reserwebank (SARB) die plaaslike produksiegaping beraam en hoe hierdie beraamde produksiegaping op die monetêrebeleidstand-punt inwerk. Ten slotte word die SARB se monetêrebeleidstandpunt beskou met betrekking tot die inflasiekoers en produksiegapingsberamings oor die afgelope twee dekades ten einde die reaksie van die plaaslike monetêre beleid op groot ekonomiese skokke soos die wêreldwye finansiële krisis en COVID-19 te illustreer, en ten einde die beramings se sensitiwiteit vir datahersienings uit te lig.

The inflation rate and the output gap are two of the main determinants of the monetary policy stance. However, while inflation is relatively well understood by the public, the output gap is not. The output gap is not directly observed and is derived from estimates of potential output. Potential output is also not observable or measurable, and therefore needs to be estimated. Such estimates can, however, be sensitive to different methodological paradigms and the availability of data, while definitions of potential output may be ambiguous, because the term is often used to describe related, but logically distinct, concepts. With the aim of contributing to a better understanding of and greater transparency in domestic monetary policy, this paper describes the role of the output gap in South African monetary policy by broadly examining the following three questions: (i) What exactly is the output gap?; (ii) How is it measured? and (iii) Why is it important? To begin with, the idea underlying the concept of the output gap is explained and a tentative working definition of the output gap in the context of monetary policy is provided. Various methodologies and empirical techniques of estimating potential output and the output gap are then discussed, including univariate statistical techniques, structural models and semi-structural approaches. This is followed by an explanation of how the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) estimates the domestic output gap, and how the estimated output gap feeds into the monetary policy stance. Finally, the SARB's monetary policy stance is viewed in relation to the inflation rate and output gap estimates over the last two decades to illustrate the domestic monetary policy response to notable economic events such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 shock, and to highlight the sensitivity of the estimates to data revision. This paper shows that both actual and potential economic growth have declined over the last decade, even without taking into account the COVID-19 shock. This is consistent with the South African empirical literature, and points to a worrying and persistent stagnation in domestic economic activity. After strong economic activity during the early 2000s, the economy started slowing down in 2008. This may be ascribed to a number of factors, including the introduction of load-shedding in 2007, changes in the global economic landscape following the globalfinancial crisis, dwindling infrastructure investment after the 2010 FIFA World Cup tournament, and uncertainty about domestic economic policy. COVID-19 brought about a massive economic shock in 2020. Lockdown regulations saw capital and labour withdrawn from economic use, which caused real GDP and potential output to contract by 6,2% and 2,7%, respectively, for the year. The output gap, which has mainly remained in negative territory since 2009, fell to -7,9% in the second quarter of 2020. In response to the crisis, the SARB drastically lowered the policy rate and applied several other financial market interventions, but even this extensive range of stimuli failed to prevent an economic collapse. Moreover, the output gap has remained negative despite a minor rebound of the economy in 2021 and 2022, which indicated that economic activity remained on its weakpre-COVID-19 trajectory. Inflation has stabilised markedly since 2010. This may be partly due to weak domestic economic activity that does not exert significant domestic inflationary pressures. In fact, many of the notable inflationary episodes of the last 25years were largely caused by external factors, such as the rand depreciation shock and the global financial crisis. This benign domestic inflationary environment has arguably made it easier for the SARB to achieve its inflation target. Such consistency has contributed to an increase in the SARB's credibility, which, in turn, has led to inflation expectations that are lower and better anchored.

Resumen: El método de análisis estático no lineal ha facilitado modelos más cercanos a la respuesta estructural para fuertes movimientos sísmicos. Por lo tanto, se desarrolló una evaluación del desempeño sísmico de un edificio de sala multiusos ubicado en una universidad nacional pública de Chiclayo-Perú, aplicando el análisis estático no lineal, la cual contiene dos módulos semejantes de 3 niveles c/u con plantas irregulares. El sistema estructural de la edificación es de muros portantes. Fue construida en el año 2010 y fue diseñada de acuerdo a la E.030 (Norma sismo resistente peruana) y con la microzonificación sísmica de Perú. Para efectos prácticos, tomando en consideración la simetría de la estructura global, se evaluó uno de los módulos utilizando métodos no lineales que puedan simular el efecto de sismos. Este desarrollo incluía la aplicación de un análisis lineal para establecer los espectros de respuesta y a partir de ello ejecutar el análisis no lineal Pushover. En base a los resultados, se determinó el desempeño en las dos direcciones, tomando en cuenta los niveles de desempeño de la HAZUS y VISION 2000. Los resultados muestran que la edificación tiene un desempeño de "Seguridad de vida " y "Cerca al colapso " en la dirección X y Y respectivamente; además de ello, las derivas muestran una estrecha relación con los datos de desempeño, pues HAZUS demuestra que las derivas en Y no son favorables; por lo tanto, se determinó que es necesario que se ejecute un reforzamiento estructural de la edificación para mejorar el comportamiento desfavorable.

Abstract: The nonlinear static analysis method has facilitated models that are closer to the structural response for strong seismic movements. Therefore, a seismic performance evaluation of a multi-purpose hall building located in a national public university in Chiclayo, Peru, was developed, applying the nonlinear static analysis. This building comprises two similar modules, each with 3 levels and irregular plans. The building's structural system consists of load-bearing walls. It was constructed in 2010 and designed according to E.030 (the Peruvian seismic-resistant standard) and Peru's seismic microzonation. For practical purposes, considering the symmetry of the overall structure, one of the modules was evaluated using nonlinear methods capable of simulating the effect of earthquakes. This development included applying a linear analysis to establish the response spectra and, based on that, performing the nonlinear Pushover analysis. Based on the results, the performance in both directions was determined, considering the performance levels of HAZUS and VISION 2000. The results show that the building has a performance of "Life Safety" and "Near Collapse" in the X and Y directions, respectively. Additionally, the drifts show a close relationship with the performance data, as HAZUS demonstrates that the drifts in the Y direction are not favorable. Therefore, it was determined that structural reinforcement of the building is necessary to improve its unfavorable behavior.

Resumen: En el presente estudio, se analiza el desempeño sísmico de un sistema dual de hormigón armado (pórticos y muros especiales) con diferentes niveles de irregularidad torsional. Se plantean tres arquetipos, cada uno con un nivel de irregularidad torsional distinto (IT 1.0, IT 1.2 e IT 1.4) con la finalidad de evaluar el efecto de la irregularidad torsional en el desempeño sísmico. Los elementos estructurales de los arquetipos cumplen con el diseño sismorresistente. Además, se tomó en cuenta los factores de sobre-resistencia y amplificación dinámica para determinar el corte de diseño en los muros estructurales. Se realizaron análisis estático y dinámicos no lineales para cuantificar las respuestas globales y locales de cada uno de los modelos. Los modelos analíticos de muros estructurales son calibrados en función de los datos obtenidos en ensayos experimentales existentes, de esta manera se valida los elementos tipo fibra (infrmFB) usados y los parámetros de los modelos constitutivos de los materiales. Se realizan análisis dinámicos incrementales (IDA) para cada uno de los arquetipos con los once registros sísmicos seleccionados de la base del PEER. Las curvas IDA son desarrolladas con dos parámetros de demanda ingenieril: derivas de piso y deformaciones unitarias. Finalmente, se elaboran las curvas de fragilidad para los niveles de desempeño de ocupación inmediata, seguridad de vida y prevención de colapso, y se determinan los coeficientes de margen con la finalidad de cuantificar las probabilidades de alcanzar los niveles de desempeño mencionados.

Abstract: This research evaluates the seismic performance of a dual reinforced concrete system with different levels of torsional irregularity. Three archetypes are proposed, each of them with a different level of torsional irregularity (IT 1.0, IT 1.2 and IT 1.4) in order to evaluate the effect of torsional irregularity on seismic performance. The structural elements of the archetypes comply with the seismic design. In addition, the factors of overstrength and dynamic amplification were considered to determine the design shear force in the structural walls. Linear static and nonlinear dynamic analysis were performed to quantify the global and local responses of each of the models. The analytical models of structural walls are calibrated based on the data of existing experimental tests, thus validating the fiber-type elements (infrmFB) used and the parameters of the constitutive models of the materials. Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is performed for each of the archetypes with the eleven seismic records selected from the PEER database. IDA curves are developed with two engineering demand parameters: story drifts and strains. Finally, the fragility curves are elaborated for the immediate occupancy, life safety, and collapse prevention performance levels, and the margin ratio are determined to quantify the probabilities of reaching a certain level of performance.

Eisenhower, Dulles, Eden and Macmillan played crucial roles in the Suez crisis, which had significant repercussions for the Middle East and the global balance of power. However, none of them entirely escaped the crisis unscathed. Eisenhower viewed containment of communism as his primary objective. He believed that it was untenable for the USA to identify with Britain's colonial past. Dulles rarely lost sight of the colonial dimension during the crisis. Ultimately, the crisis had a significant impact on Britain's international standing, confirming its status as a second-rate nation and revealing its waning status as a global power. As the international aspect of decolonisation was crucial for Macmillan to address, he pursued withdrawal from Africa as a vital objective to maintain and expand Britain's status as a powerful nation. He was unable to eradicate the stigma associated with the fact that Britain was a colonial power. His efforts to strengthen the status of Britain as a significant power through the Commonwealth were similarly ineffectual. The importance of British colonialism had attained its pinnacle. In some quarters, it was believed that Macmillan had always played a dubious role targeting Eden's removal as prime minister. Reasons for these apparent misrepresentations remain a matter of conjecture. The most favourable interpretation was that he attempted to use his association with Eisenhower from World War II to bolster Eden's domestic position against cabinet opponents. Alternately, he may have led Eden intentionally into a political catastrophe from which he expected to profit. He was the ultimate beneficiary of Suez. Macmillan was involved in all of the crucial decisions during the crisis and may have had greater intent than Eden to bring down Nasser. Added to the suspicions about Macmillan's behaviour was his reluctance, if not outright refusal, to formally evaluate Suez that prompted him to collaborate closely with the Cabinet Office in order to authorise ministerial memoirs and official publications that were required to be submitted to him prior to publication. As it involved extremely delicate concerns of foreign and domestic politics, he ruled that nothing could be published regarding Suez without his permission. In his ruthless and violent pursuit of vindication, it was common knowledge that Eden disregarded the norms of confidentiality. His conservative administration was fatally undermined by internal discord. Suez ruined him politically, materially and emotionally. Eden made the final decision to invade Egypt without extensive consultation with his cabinet, without playing open cards with the United States, and while keeping members of the Commonwealth in the dark. Suez remained a highly visible and fiercely contested issue in British academic, media and political circles, and a parliamentary campaign continued as new publications, radio and television programmes addressed new aspects of the issue. The crisis resulted in moral defeat and diplomatic catastrophe for the two former colonial powers. Their authority and prestige among Arab powers were irreparably harmed. They were now dependent on Israel, the youngest and most rapidly expanding military power in the Middle East. The crisis had an enduring effect on the international relations of France. Mollet, the French premier, disapproved of Nasser's support for Algerian insurgents who presented France with substantial challenges and even posed a threat to its political stability. Following the collapse of the Fourth Republic, General Charles de Gaulle was elected president of France. He held his own opinion about France's indispensable role in international affairs. Nasser was at ease within the Soviet sphere of influence due to hostility and vilification from the West. The Soviet Union and its allies took advantage of the concurrent Hungarian insurrection to condemn Western imperialism, thereby diverting global attention away from their own brutality in Hungary. Nasser emerged from the crisis with distinction owing to his Pan-Arab nationalism and neutrality. It allowed him to strengthen his position as an advocate for the Arab cause and decolonisation. The new realities, which the West encountered in the Middle East, turned out to be the decline of colonialism and the rise of nationalism.

Eisenhower, Dulles, Eden en Macmillan was instrumenteel tydens die Suezkrisis wat beduidende implikasies vir die Midde-Ooste en die globale magsbalans meegebring het, maar nie een van hulle het heeltemal ongeskonde uit die krisis gekom nie. Eisenhower het die inperking van kommunisme as sy hoogste prioriteit geag en het Brittanje se koloniale erfenis as onhoudbaar beskou, en Dulles het die koloniale dimensie dikwels opgehaal. Brittanje se dalende status as 'n wêreldmoondheid is blootgelê en as 'n tweederangse moondheid bevestig. Die feit dat Brittanje 'n koloniale mag was, het 'n stigma gelaat waaraan Eden en Macmillan weinig kon doen. Dit was alombekend dat Eden die reëls van geheimhouding verontagsaam het in sy meedoënlose en bloedige strewe na regverdiging. Wat Eden se konserwatiewe regering noodlottig ondermyn het, was die onenigheid in sy eie geledere. Hyself was polities, fisies en emosioneel deur Suez verpletter. Macmillan het uit die wrak van Suez getree om 'n gedemoraliseerde Konserwatiewe Party te lei en 'n land wat nog in die dieptes van vertwyfeling verkeer het. Frankryk was diep gegrief oor Nasser se steun aan rebelle in Algerië. Die nagevolge van die krisis het die agteruitgang van Europese kolonialisme beklemtoon en 'n blywende impak op Frankryk se internasionale verhoudings gehad. Algerië het ontsaglike probleme vir Frankryk veroorsaak en selfs sy politieke stabiliteit bedreig.

Abstract This article seeks to analyze the regulatory framework that regulates the safety of tailings dams on an international, national and state scale, with emphasis on the management of mining dams built in Minas Gerais using the upstream design - considered the most critical for the risk of collapse. We argue that the standards which have gained the most support from the industry, by not expressly prohibiting the existence of upstream dams, show contradictions that reproduce rather than remedy the vulnerability of territories exposed to the social and environmental risks produced by mining in Brazil and in the world. Based on the analyses proposed here, we aim at understanding how the problem of tailings management has been addressed by institutions at the national and international level, thus identifying the effectiveness of standards and policies related to the problem of upstream dams. scale collapse industry world here level

Resumo Este artigo busca analisar o quadro normativo que regula a segurança de barragens de rejeitos em escala internacional, nacional e estadual, com destaque para a gestão de barragens de mineração construídas em Minas Gerais pelo método de alteamento a montante - considerado o mais crítico para o risco de rompimento. Para isso, realizamos uma análise dedutiva a partir da revisão de literatura, combinada à análise indutiva procedente de fontes secundárias (notícias, relatórios e normas). Nosso argumento é de que os padrões que conquistaram maior adesão da indústria, ao não proibirem expressamente a existência de barragens a montante, evidenciam contradições que reproduzem mais do que remediam a vulnerabilidade dos territórios expostos aos riscos sociais e ambientais produzidos pela mineração no Brasil e no mundo. Esperamos, a partir das análises aqui propostas, compreender como o problema da gestão de rejeitos vem sendo endereçado pelas instituições em âmbito nacional e internacional, identificando a efetividade dos padrões e políticas relacionados ao problema das barragens a montante. internacional estadual rompimento isso literatura notícias, notícias (notícias normas. normas . normas) indústria mundo Esperamos propostas

Abstract In this article we seek to outline a thought on the temporal character of the experience in capitalism through the concept of refrain, proposed by Guattari and Deleuze. To this end, we turn mainly to the Guattarian texts. The refrains are the rhythmic machines that temporalize the experience, components of passage that tend to autonomization and adaptability. From these qualities, the ritornelos in capitalism can be understood in three cores of temporalization: domestic-affective, labor-social and mutant-rhizomatic. We understand the first as a musically activated affective link that tends to control a small territory, while the second is activated by neoliberal flexibilization and the chronographic slavery that follows from it. The third core would be able to annul the other two in an opening to the cosmos, time and desire. Thinking about rhythmic innovations that go in that direction, we arrive at the idea of futurythmachine (Eshun) and its development in the Global ghettotech (Goodman), the fusion of folk elements with electronic music by marginalized populations around the world. two rhythms from this periphery break into the temporal structure of pop: the solidified syncopation of reggaeton and the inorganic collapse of trap. However, the algorithmic conditions that increasingly manage labor and consumption extend to the circulation of aesthetic refrains. Algorithms are complex refrains, so to recover the singularity of aesthetic processes it is also necessary to enter in the algorithmic plane of composition, intervening in a different level of creation. refrain Deleuze end texts adaptability qualities temporalization domesticaffective, domesticaffective domestic affective, domestic-affective laborsocial social mutantrhizomatic. mutantrhizomatic mutant rhizomatic. rhizomatic mutant-rhizomatic territory cosmos desire direction Eshun (Eshun Goodman, Goodman , (Goodman) world pop trap However composition creation (Goodman

Resumo Neste artigo buscamos delinear uma reflexão sobre a transitoriedade da experiência no capitalismo por meio do conceito de ritornelo, proposto por Guattari e Deleuze. Para isso, recorremos preferencialmente aos textos guattarianos. Os ritornelos são as máquinas rítmicas que temporalizam a experiência, os componentes da passagem tendem à autonomia e adaptabilidade. A partir dessas qualidades, os ritornelos no capitalismo podem ser compreendidos em três núcleos de temporalização: afetivo-doméstico, social-laboral e rizomático-mutante. Entendemos o primeiro como um vínculo afetivo ativado musicalmente que tende a controlar um pequeno território, enquanto o segundo é ativado pela flexibilidade neoliberal e a "escravidão cronográfica" que dela decorre. O terceiro núcleo seria capaz de anular os outros dois numa abertura ao cosmos, ao tempo e ao desejo. Pensando em inovações rítmicas que vão nessa direção, surgiu a ideia da futuritmáquina (Eshun) e seu desenvolvimento no Global ghettotech (Goodman), a fusão de elementos folk com música eletrônica por populações marginais ao redor do mundo. Dessa periferia surgem dois ritmos que rompem a estrutura temporal do pop: a síncope solidificada do reggaeton e o colapso inorgânico do trap. No entanto, as condições algorítmicas que gerem cada vez mais o trabalho e o consumo estendem-se à circulação de ritornelos estéticos. Os algoritmos são ritornelos complexos, pelo que para recuperar a singularidade dos processos estéticos é necessário entrar também num plano de composição algorítmica, intervindo num nível diferente de criação. ritornelo Deleuze isso guattarianos adaptabilidade qualidades temporalização afetivodoméstico, afetivodoméstico doméstico, doméstico afetivo-doméstico sociallaboral social laboral rizomáticomutante. rizomáticomutante rizomático mutante. mutante rizomático-mutante território escravidão cronográfica decorre cosmos desejo direção Eshun (Eshun Goodman, Goodman , (Goodman) mundo pop trap entanto estendemse estendem se complexos algorítmica criação (Goodman

Resumen En este artículo buscamos delinear un pensamiento sobre el carácter temporal de la experiencia en el capitalismo a través del concepto de ritornelo, propuesto por Guattari y Deleuze. Para ello, nos dirigimos preferentemente a los textos guattarianos. Los ritornelos son las máquinas rítmicas que temporalizan la experiencia, componentes de pasaje tienden a la autonomización y la adaptabilidad. A partir de estas cualidades, los ritornelos en el capitalismo se pueden comprender en tres núcleos de temporalización: doméstico-afectivo, laboral-social y mutante-rizomático. Entendemos el primero como un nexo afectivo activado musicalmente que tiende al control de un pequeño territorio, mientras que el segundo se activa por la flexibilización neoliberal y la esclavitud cronográfica que se sigue de ella. El tercer núcleo sería capaz de anular los otros dos en una apertura al cosmos, al tiempo y al deseo. Pensando en innovaciones rítmicas que vayan en ese sentido, llegamos a la idea de futuritmáquina (Eshun) y su desarrollo en el Global ghettotech (Goodman), la fusión de elementos folk con música electrónica por parte de poblaciones marginales en todo el mundo. De esta periferia vienen dos ritmos que irrumpen en la estructura temporal del pop: la síncopa solidificada del reggaetón y el colapso inorgánico del trap. Sin embargo, las condiciones algorítmicas que crecientemente administran el trabajo y el consumo se extienden a la circulación de los ritornelos estéticos. Los algoritmos son ritornelos complejos, por lo que para recuperar la singularidad de los procesos estéticos es preciso entrar también a un plano de composición algorítmica, interviniendo en un nivel distinto de creación. ritornelo Deleuze ello guattarianos adaptabilidad cualidades temporalización domésticoafectivo, domésticoafectivo doméstico afectivo, doméstico-afectivo laboralsocial laboral social mutanterizomático. mutanterizomático mutante rizomático. rizomático mutante-rizomático territorio ella cosmos deseo sentido Eshun (Eshun Goodman, Goodman , (Goodman) mundo pop trap embargo complejos algorítmica creación (Goodman

Abstract: The socio-environmental impacts caused by the collapse of a mining dam can be irreversible. In Brazil, the dam collapse at the Córrego do Feijão Mine was considered one of the worst disasters in the country. Remote sensing-based approaches have been used to detect and monitor areas affected by tailings from dam rupture. Therefore, it was proposed to identify the area affected by mining tailing mud, in Brumadinho, Minas Gerais State, through the analysis of three different spectral indices: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Ferrous Minerals Ratio (FMR) and Clay Minerals Ratio (CMR). These indices were computed from the Operational Land Imager (OLI) images of Landsat-8. Different thresholds were tested to define the best range for delineating the affected area. For validation, the limits of the affected area, obtained from a higher resolution sensor, GeoEye-1, were used as reference. The methodology demonstrated great potential for detecting areas affected by dam failure. The indices NDVI and FMR delimited the area of interest with high performance, with precision varying between 95% and 92%; recall between 88% and 87%; F-score between 91% and 89%; and global accuracy between 84% and 80%, showing to be suitable mapping such disasters. Abstract socioenvironmental socio environmental irreversible Brazil country sensingbased sensing based rupture Therefore mud Brumadinho State NDVI, , (NDVI) (FMR CMR. CMR . (CMR) OLI (OLI Landsat8. Landsat8 Landsat 8. 8 Landsat-8 validation sensor GeoEye1, GeoEye1 GeoEye 1, 1 GeoEye-1 reference failure performance 95 92% 92 88 87% 87 Fscore F score 91 89% 89 84 80 80% (NDVI (CMR Landsat- GeoEye- 9

Aeolianites and cemented beach deposits on South Africa's Cape coast preserve evidence of events that transpired on them when they were composed of unconsolidated sand. Over the past decades, numerous Pleistocene vertebrate tracksites have been identified on aeolianite palaeosurfaces in the Garden Route National Park, West Coast National Park, and Addo Elephant National Park. In the Garden Route National Park alone, 57 Pleistocene vertebrate tracksites have been discovered. An equilibrium exists, whereby new sites become exposed through cliff-collapse events, while known sites slump into the ocean, are eroded through the action of wind and water, or are destroyed through wave action. Engraved graffiti poses a further threat. These sites complement the traditional body fossil record, and have significant palaeoenvironmental and palaeoanthropological implications. Hominin sites are of global importance: one contains the oldest tracks attributed to Homo sapiens, others contain patterns made in sand by ancestral humans and constitutes a form of early palaeoart. Collectively, these sites have substantial geoheritage value. The discoveries create management questions: which sites require active management, and how should they be ranked in importance? Factors which need to be considered in developing a management strategy include the scientific and heritage value of the sites, whether recovery or replication is preferable, the presence or absence of suitable repositories, the level of the threat to site integrity, the accessibility of the site, and the feasibility of recovery. Checklists containing appropriate criteria and questions can form tools in assessing the importance of these ichnosites.

Abstract: The COVID-19 outbreak commenced in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and swiftly disseminated worldwide. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) formally designated the COVID-19 outbreak as a global pandemic [1]. This highly contagious disease, which has also started to spread among young people, necessitates the implementation of policies to avert the collapse of hospitals due to shortages in beds, mechanical ventilators, and intensive care units. Using the record from March 2020 to May 31 2021, (before the arrival of vaccines in Mexico) of the website of the General Directorate of Epidemiology of the Ministry of Health of the Government of the Mexican Republic, with more than seven million people associated with COVID-19, a model is built with twelve characteristics that predicts the risk of death associated with COVID-19, applying Supervised Learning Algorithms such as Linear Regression, Naive Bayes, Decision Trees and Random Forests. The results of the machine learning algorithms show a performance of 87%. Subsequently, the model was tested again with 402,116 COVID-19-associated patients from the month of June, achieving an accuracy of 91%, surpassing the model proposed in [3]. When performing data cleaning, we observed that the twelve variables are not correlated, unlike what the authors showed in [4], where data cleaning was not carried out. This analysis can aid in designing strategies and policies to combat its spread and prevent mortality, as well as assist hospitals in prioritizing the care of higher-risk patients.

The science of soil mechanics is 100 years old, and rock mechanics is about 80 years old. While methods of analysis and design have been developed and have evolved over time, these are relatively young sciences. The rapid increases in computing power and new technologies have enabled more sophisticated modelling and monitoring. However, there are still many aspects of soil and rock mechanics that are not well understood. Geotechnical failures, which have major consequences, still occur. These consequences may include environmental damage, major production holdups and associated loss of revenue, damage to infrastructure, and loss of life. High-consequence events, which are rare, are more difficult to anticipate and to design for, because by their nature they involve extraordinary circumstances or conditions, often geological in nature. The risks are usually mitigated by conservative designs and monitoring. Detailed geotechnical investigations help us to understand the natural variability of soil and rock masses and identify unusual or unexpected conditions. Investigating and researching major geotechnical failures is essential to enable these unusual circumstances to be anticipated. In the past, severe unanticipated events may have been treated as natural events or 'acts of God'. However, society now has much greater expectations and it is essential to have policies and procedures in place that enable appropriate management of these rare, high-consequence risks. A good example is the Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management (GISTM), which was introduced after the catastrophic dam collapse at Vale's Corrego de Feijao mine in Brumadinho, Brazil. The address will explain the concepts of uncertainty and variability, and how they should be taken into account in geotechnical design. The challenges facing geotechnical engineers, mine owners, and managers will be discussed. referencing a number of real case studies.

World Bank projections (2020) show the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on world economic growth, generating a 5.2% reduction in 2020. The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic (SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus) , from China in December 2019, provoked the need for social isolation, given the high number of infected people, deaths and the imminent collapse of health systems. The economic repercussions caused by Covid-19 generated an abrupt drop in supply and demand in most economic activities and signs of recession worldwide. Agribusiness through commodity exports positively affects the Brazilian trade balance. The objective of this work is to identify the impacts of the covid-19 pandemic on the costs of producing transgenic soy in Brazilian municipalities from 2018 to 2021. The methodology consists of carrying out a survey of fixed and variable costs using data available on the website of Conab for the Brazilian municipalities that produce transgenic soy, generating a data panel and then applying the technique known as difference-in-difference regression. The results point to a rise in fixed costs of 31%. As for variable costs, there was a record of 24% in the general group. Among the variable costs, seeds stood out, with an increase of 29%. These increases are a reflection of commodity prices, currency devaluation against the dollar and the crisis generated by Covid-19 in global food supply and demand.

As projeções do Banco Mundial (2020) demonstram os reflexos da pandemia da Covid-19 sobre o crescimento econômico mundial, gerando uma redução em 5,2% em 2020. A eclosão da pandemia de Covid-19 (coronavírus SARS-CoV-2), a partir da China em dezembro de 2019, provocou a necessidade de isolamento social, diante do elevado número de infectados, mortes e do iminente colapso dos sistemas de saúde. As repercussões econômicas provocadas pela Covid-19 geraram queda abrupta da oferta e demanda na maioria das atividades econômicas e sinais de recessão em nível mundial. O agronegócio por meio das exportações de commodities afeta positivamente a balança comercial brasileira. O objetivo deste trabalho é identificar os impactos da pandemia da covid-19 nos custos de produção de soja transgênica nos municípios brasileiros no período de 2018 a 2021. A metodologia consiste em realizar um levantamento dos custos fixos e variáveis de dados disponíveis no endereço eletrônico da Conab para os municípios brasileiros produtores de soja transgênica gerando um painel de dados para depois aplicar a técnica conhecida como regressão de diferenças em diferenças. Os resultados apontam para uma alta nos custos fixos de 31%. Quanto aos custos variáveis, houve um registro de 24% no grupo geral. Dentre os custos variáveis, as sementes se destacaram, com alta de 29%. Estes aumentos são reflexos da dos preços das commodities, desvalorização da moeda frente ao dólar e a crise gerada pela Covid-19 na oferta e demanda de alimentos global.

ABSTRACT In tandem with the global epidemiological crisis, this article was written with the aim of starting a public debate and to propose a set of alternatives for social change and economic transformation in order to tackle - from a developing world - the multiple effects of the disruptive crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic, from a critical and regulatory perspective. Although these propositions are not entirely sufficient, we believe they respond to the urgency of real-time thinking to the challenges of a pandemic that englobes a far-reaching systemic and ecosocial crisis that intertwines with the crisis of capitalism and the current collapse of civilization. A new social pact warrants recovering theoretical debates concerning public problems and decision-making, as well as employing the creative imagination and political will to broaden the possibility of achieving diverse, sufficient, viable and realistic social agreements.

RESUMEN Escrito al unísono de la crisis epidemiológica global, el presente artículo tiene como objetivo abrir un debate público y proponer, desde una perspectiva crítica y normativa, un conjunto de alternativas de cambio social y transformación económica con miras a enfrentar -desde el mundo subdesarrollado- los múltiples impactos de la crisis disruptiva de la pandemia de COVID-19. Aunque no suficientes del todo estas propuestas, consideramos que responden a la urgencia de pensar en tiempo real ante los desafíos que impone una pandemia que condensa una crisis sistémica y ecosocietal de amplias proporciones entrelazada con la misma crisis global del capitalismo y con el actual colapso civilizatorio. Un nuevo pacto social amerita recuperar debates teóricos relacionados con los problemas públicos y la toma de decisiones, así como desplegar la imaginación creadora y la voluntad política para ampliar la posibilidad de forjar acuerdos sociales diversos, suficientes, realizables y no maximalistas.

ABSTRACT The current energy crisis and the sustainability debate are better understood as part of the broader environmental collapse of which they are part. The contemporary eco-crisis is at the center of a number of debates in the public sphere and in the political agenda of governments around the world. Historians have participated in these debates in different ways, debates that are frequently based on simplistic - when not anti-historical - models of historical analysis. However, historians also frequently use categories that were created by the history of capital in unthinking ways, categories that naturalize ways of seeing and experiencing the world and that are at the basis of the current ecological collapse. The present essay offers reflections on these problems and explores the possibilities of historical analysis in the context of the environmental crisis. ecocrisis eco antihistorical anti However

RESUMO A atual crise energética e as questões de sustentabilidade ligadas a ela podem ser compreendidas melhor quando enquadradas no colapso ambiental mais amplo do qual são parte. A eco-crise mundial atualmente em curso ocupa um lugar incontornável em debates na esfera pública e na agenda política de diferentes governos ao redor do mundo. Historiadores têm participado de diferentes formas dessas discussões, que com frequência trazem embutidos modelos de análise histórica simplistas, quando não a-históricos. No entanto, historiadores com frequência também operam de modo irrefletido por meio de categorias produzidas pela história do capital, que tendem a naturalizar as formas de ver e experimentar o mundo, e que estão na base do colapso ecológico de nossa época. O presente artigo apresenta reflexões em torno desses problemas e explora possibilidades de análise histórica no contexto do colapso ambiental. parte ecocrise eco mundo discussões simplistas ahistóricos. ahistóricos históricos. históricos a-históricos entanto capital época

Abstract Central America experienced important levels of forced migration since last decades of 20th century. Restrictions to migrant fluxes implemented by the United States derived part of these migration fluxes to Spain. This work offers a structural analysis of migration processes that took place between Honduras, El Salvador and Spain, through a critical interdisciplinary approach that encompass the study of forced migration with the analysis of the historical context in which population movements occur, shedding light on the situation of migrants coming from these two Central American countries to Spain. th century Spain Honduras occur

Resumen América Central ha experimentado importantes niveles de migración forzada desde las últimas décadas del siglo XX. Las restricciones a la migración implementadas por Estados Unidos han derivado gran parte de estos flujos a España. En este texto se ofrece un análisis estructural de los procesos migratorios ocurridos entre Honduras, El Salvador y España, a través de una perspectiva crítica interdisciplinar que combina el estudio de la migración forzada con el análisis del contexto histórico en las que ocurren estos movimientos de población, arrojando luz sobre la situación de los migrantes procedentes de estos dos países centroamericanos en España. XX España Honduras población

Resumo As pandemias globais e as calamidades naturais vieram alterar os modos de viver e pensar e deram origem a vários discursos sobre o colapso do mundo. A omnipresença da ideia de “crise” tem conduzido a diversos questionamentos que percorrem diferentes áreas do saber. Neste artigo exploram-se os desafios que a atualidade coloca às formas de pensar e escrever a história e enceta-se uma problematização dos seus pressupostos, metodologias e práticas. Propõe-se realizar uma rota exploratória em torno de alguns autores e ideias suscetíveis de traduzir uma conjuntura marcada por transformações. Questionam-se temas como o “excecionalismo humano”, reequaciona-se a divisão entre história e teoria, interroga-se o tempo da modernidade e as noções de direção, fim e sentido da história, mas coloca-se também a hipótese de existirem histórias conectadas com diferentes temporalidades, outras formas de percecionar o tempo e ressignificar a agência humana.

Abstract Global pandemics and natural disasters have changed the ways of living and thinking and have given rise to various discourses on the collapse of the world. The omnipresence of the idea of “crisis” has led to several questionings that cut across different areas of knowledge. This article explores the challenges that the present time poses to the ways of thinking and writing history and undertakes a problematization of its assumptions, methodologies, and practices. It aims to conduct an exploratory route around some authors and ideas, susceptible of translating a conjuncture marked by transformations. It questions themes such as “human exceptionalism”, rethinks the division between history and theory, questions modernity’s time and the notions of direction, end and meaning of history, but also poses the hypothesis that there are histories connected to different temporalities, other ways of perceiving time, and re-signifying human agency.