Abstract Thermal resilience refers to a building’s capacity to adapt to extreme thermal variations, maintaining a healthy environment for its occupants. This study aims to assess the thermal resilience of a naturally ventilated low-income residential building in overheating conditions within a region of savannah tropical climate. Various indices, including adaptive thermal comfort, Indoor Overheating Degree (IOD) and Exceedance Hours (HE), Heat Index (HI), and Standard Effective Temperature (SET) were calculated in current and climate change scenarios using two models, a standard building (HISp) and a building that incorporates passive bioclimatic strategies (HISe).It was demonstrated that thermal insulation and low absorption strategies significantly contribute to indoor environmental quality, reducing the risk of overheating exposure in all evaluated scenarios. Despite reducing discomfort hours and critical thermal stress levels, the idealized strategies do not provide adequate habitability conditions for the occupants. Overheating will become even more severe in projected future scenarios. Among the two dwellings, HISe demonstrates a superior potential to mitigate the risk of overheating compared to HISp in all the scenarios evaluated. buildings s variations occupants lowincome income indices comfort IOD (IOD HE, HE , (HE) HI, HI (HI) SET (SET models (HISp HISe.It HISeIt .It It quality levels dwellings (HE (HI

Resumo A resiliência térmica se refere à capacidade de um edifício de se adaptar às variações térmicas extremas, mantendo um ambiente saudável para seus ocupantes. Este estudo visa avaliar a resiliência térmica de uma edificação residencial de baixa renda, naturalmente ventilada, em situação de sobreaquecimento, localizada em região climática tropical de savana. Vários índices, incluindo conforto térmico adaptativo, Grau de Sobreaquecimento Interior (IOD) e Horas Excedentes (HE), Índice de Calor (HI) e Temperatura Efetiva Padrão (SET) foram calculados, no presente e cenários futuros de mudança climática, utilizando-se dois modelos, uma edificação padrão (HISp) e uma edificação que incorpora estratégias bioclimáticas passivas (HISe). Evidenciou-se que as estratégias de isolamento térmico e baixa absorção contribuíram significativamente para a qualidade ambiental interior, reduzindo os riscos de exposição ao sobreaquecimento. Apesar de reduzir as horas de desconforto e os níveis mais críticos de estresse térmico, as estratégias idealizadas não promovem condições adequadas de habitabilidade aos seus ocupantes. O sobrequecimento se tornará ainda mais severo nos cenários futuros projetados. Entre as habitações, a HISe demonstra um potencial superior ao da HISp para mitigar o risco de sobreaquecimento em todos os cenários avaliados. extremas ocupantes renda ventilada savana índices adaptativo IOD (IOD HE, HE , (HE) HI (HI SET (SET calculados utilizandose utilizando modelos (HISp HISe. . (HISe) Evidenciouse Evidenciou interior projetados habitações avaliados (HE (HISe

Resumen Este estudio, se centra en la cobertura forestal de tres distritos en el ámbito urbano de la provincia de Andahuaylas, región Apurímac en Perú, la cual afronta problemas de deforestación. El objetivo fue determinar la cobertura forestal en el área urbana de la provincia de Andahuaylas hasta el 2030, para la revelación de los escenarios futuros de la cobertura forestal, contribuyendo al desarrollo de la planificación urbana y a la creación de ciudades sostenibles. Para el área de estudio, se utilizaron datos registrados entre los años 2017-2023, a partir de las imágenes NDVI del portal Sentinelhub. Permitiendo disponer de información de bosques tropicales y templados; arbustos y pastizales; zonas áridas de roca; áreas urbanas o artificiales que han cambiado como consecuencia del proceso de urbanización. Se determinaron las superficies de bosque en el área de estudio. Posteriormente se utilizó la regresión lineal con un p valor = 0,046, alcanzando un R2 de 0,583 en un rango medio, logrando estimar los escenarios futuros del bosque al 2030. Se concluye que la tendencia es decreciente en la cobertura forestal en 26,50% al año 2030.

Absttract This study focuses on the forest cover of three districts in the urban area of the province of Andahuaylas, Apurímac region, Peru, which is facing deforestation problems. The objective was to determine the forest cover in the urban area of the province of Andahuaylas until 2030, to reveal future scenarios of forest cover, contributing to the development of urban planning and the creation of sustainable cities. For the study area, data recorded between the years 2017-2023 were used, based on NDVI images from the Sentinelhub portal. This allowed for the availability of information on tropical and temperate forests, shrubs and grasslands, arid rock zones, and urban or artificial areas that have changed due to the urbanization process. The forest surfaces in the study area were determined. Subsequently, linear regression was used with a p-value = 0,046, reaching an R2 of 0,583 in a medium range, managing to estimate future forest scenarios by 2030. It is concluded that the trend is decreasing in forest cover by 26,50% by the year 2030.

Abstract: The integration of electric mobility is real nowadays. Government policies increasingly focus on encouraging the use of electric vehicles (EVs); particularly, replacing conventional public mobility with electric buses. An adequate energy management of electric bus systems must optimize resource usage, and extend the lifespan of transport units and charging stations, while providing quality service to users. The performance of the EV transport system depends on various deterministic and stochastic variables that need to be accurately simulated to analyze its behavior as closely as possible to real conditions. In this study, a model for the energy analysis of EVs has been implemented, by using the software SUMO (Simulation of Urban Mobility) and applying it to public transport routes in Quito, Ecuador. Through the executed simulations, energy consumption has been estimated and, a sensitivity analysis of the energy consumption of electric bus units to the variations in relevant parameters in the energy management of public transport systems, has been carried out. The impact of certain parameters on energy consumption has been verified, by indicating a significant decrease in the autonomy of EVs on the simulated route under very similar to reality operating conditions. For study case, autonomy reduction of electric bus is around 27% in comparison with manufacturer's specifications. The analysis of energy performance under various traffic scenarios will allow future optimizations of the electric public transport system operation, since traffic levels, variable traffic flow, and pronounced changes in terrain elevation, are considered.

Resumen: La integración de la movilidad eléctrica es una realidad en el mundo actual, las políticas gubernamentales se enfocan cada vez más en incentivar el uso de vehículos eléctricos (VE) particulares, pero, principalmente en reemplazar la movilidad pública convencional por el uso de buses eléctricos. Una adecuada gestión energética de los sistemas de buses eléctricos debe optimizar el uso de recursos, prolongando la vida útil de las unidades de transporte, estaciones de carga y brindando siempre un servicio de calidad a sus usuarios. El desempeño del sistema de transporte mediante VE depende de diversas variables determinísticas y estocásticas que necesitan ser debidamente simuladas a fin de analizar su comportamiento, lo más cercano a las condiciones reales. En el presente trabajo, mediante la aplicación del software SUMO (Simulation of Urban Mobility), se ha implementado un modelo para el análisis energético de VE y se lo ha aplicado en rutas de transporte público en Quito-Ecuador. A partir de las simulaciones realizadas se ha estimado el consumo energético y se ha efectuado un análisis de sensibilidad del consumo energético de las unidades de buses eléctricos ante variaciones de parámetros relevantes en la gestión energética de sistemas de transporte público. Para el caso de estudio se comprueba la reducción de la autonomía del bus eléctrico en 27% de acuerdo con la información del fabricante. El análisis del desempeño energético realizado bajo diversos escenarios de tráfico permitirá en futuros trabajos optimizar la operación de los sistemas de transporte público eléctrico, considerando niveles de tráfico, flujo vehicular variable y pronunciados desniveles en su relieve.

Abstract Introduction: Leptodactylus latinasus and Physalaemus cuqui are sympatric anuran species with similar environmental requirements and contrasting reproductive modes. Climatic configuration determines distribution patterns and promotes sympatry of environmental niches, but specificity/selectivity determines the success of reproductive modes. Species distribution models (SDM) are a valuable tool to predict spatio-temporal distributions based on the extrapolation of environmental predictors. Objectives: To determine the spatio-temporal distribution of environmental niches and assess whether the protected areas of the World Database of Protected Areas (WDPA) allow the conservation of these species in the current scenario and future. Methods: We applied different algorithms to predict the distribution and spatio-temporal overlap of environmental niches of L. latinasus and P. cuqui within South America in the last glacial maximum (LGM), middle-Holocene, current and future scenarios. We assess the conservation status of both species with the WDPA conservation units. Results: All applied algorithms showed high performance for both species (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). The L. latinasus predictions showed wide environmental niches from LGM to the current scenario (49 % stable niches, 37 % gained niches, and 13 % lost niches), suggesting historical fidelity to stable climatic-environmental regions. In the current-future transition, L. latinasus would increase the number of stable (70 %) and lost (20 %) niches, suggesting fidelity to lowland regions and a possible trend toward microendemism. P. cuqui loses environmental niches from the LGM to the current scenario (25 %) and in the current-future transition (63 %), increasing the environmental sympathy between both species; 31 % spatial overlap in the current scenario and 70 % in the future. Conclusion: Extreme drought events and rainfall variations, derived from climate change, suggest the loss of environmental niches for these species that are not currently threatened but are not adequately protected by conservation units. The loss of environmental niches increases spatial sympatry which represents a new challenge for anurans and the conservation of their populations.

Resumen Introducción: Leptodactylus latinasus y Physalaemus cuqui son especies de anuros simpátricos con requerimientos ambientales similares y modos reproductivos contrastantes. La configuración climática determina los patrones de distribución y promueve la simpatría de los nichos ambientales, pero la especificidad/selectividad determina el éxito de los modos reproductivos. Los modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) son una herramienta valiosa para predecir distribuciones espacio-temporales basadas en la extrapolación de predictores ambientales. Objetivos: Determinar la distribución espacio-temporal de los nichos ambientales y evaluar si las áreas protegidas de la base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas (DMAP) permiten la conservación de estas especies en el escenario actual y futuro. Métodos: Aplicamos diferentes algoritmos para predecir la distribución y superposición espacio-temporal de nichos ambientales de L. latinasus y P. cuqui dentro de América del Sur en el último máximo glacial (UGM), Holoceno medio, actual y futuro. Evaluamos el estado de conservación de ambas especies con las unidades de conservación de la DMAP. Resultados: Todos los algoritmos aplicados mostraron un alto rendimiento para ambas especies (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). Las predicciones de L. latinasus mostraron amplios nichos ambientales desde LGM hasta el escenario actual (49 % de nichos estables, 37 % de nichos ganados y 13 % de nichos perdidos), sugiriendo fidelidad histórica por regiones climático-ambientales estables. En la transición actual-futura L. latinasus incrementaría la cantidad de nichos estables (70 %) y perdidos (20 %), sugiriendo fidelidad por regiones de tierras bajas y la posible tendencia hacia el microendemismo. P. cuqui pierde nichos ambientales desde el LGM al escenario actual (25 %) y en la transición actual-futura (63 %), incrementando la simpatría ambiental entre ambas especies; 31 % de superposición espacial en el escenario actual y 70 % en el futuro. Conclusión: Los eventos de sequía extrema y las variaciones de precipitaciones, derivados del cambio climático, sugieren la pérdida de nichos ambientales para estas especies, actualmente no se encuentran amenazadas, pero no están adecuadamente protegidas por las unidades de conservación. La pérdida de nichos ambientales aumenta la simpatría espacial que representa un nuevo desafío para estos anuros y la conservación de sus poblaciones.

Abstract Introduction: Coryphaena hippurus is a species of commercial interest with a high migratory capacity, a characteristic that places it in tropical and subtropical environments, preferring areas with a temperature range between 21 and 30 °C and salinity close to 31 ppt. Although the population trend of C. hippurus is stable, the fishing of this resource is increasing and occupies important positions in the economy of the Eastern Tropical Pacific coastal countries, which demonstrates the need to design and strengthen conservation strategies for the adequate use of this resource. Given its location in tropical and subtropical environments, its availability and distribution could be affected by climate change. Objective: To analyze the current and future potential distribution of C. hippurus under climate change scenarios. Methods: Ten algorithms were used to model the potential distribution and current habitat suitability index of C. hippurus as a function of sea surface temperature, current salinity and velocity, and these results were then projected under the most extreme climate change scenario. Results: There were good performances with all the algorithms used, but the model generated with BIOCLIM (AUC: 0.89) was chosen because it also solves the problem of spatial and temporal bias found in the records of the species. The region of greatest habitat suitability for C. hippurus matches the oceanic fronts of the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Under future conditions of extreme climate change, the species distribution pattern indicates a contraction, relocation, and expansion of habitat south of the equator. Conclusions: Under conditions of extreme climate change, the distribution model for C. hippurus suggests a process of topicalization of marine ecosystems in the Eastern Tropical Pacific by 2100.

Resumen Introducción: Coryphaena hippurus es una especie migratoria de interés comercial, que se encuentra en ambientes tropicales y subtropicales, prefiriendo zonas con un rango de temperatura entre 21 y 30 °C y salinidad cercana a 31 ppt. Aunque la tendencia poblacional del dorado es estable, la pesquería de este recurso está aumentando y ocupa importantes posiciones en la economía de países costeros del Pacífico Oriental Tropical, evidenciándose la necesidad de diseñar y fortalecer estrategias de conservación y mejorar el aprovechamiento de este recurso. Dada su ubicación en ambientes tropicales y subtropicales, la disponibilidad y distribución de este recurso podría verse afectado a futuro por el cambio climático. Objetivo: Analizar la distribución potencial actual y futura de C. hippurus bajo condiciones de cambio climático. Métodos: Se emplearon 10 algoritmos para modelar la distribución potencial e idoneidad de hábitat actual para C. hippurus a partir de la temperatura superficial del mar, la salinidad y velocidad de las corrientes, posteriormente se proyectaron estos resultados según el escenario de cambio climático más extremo. Resultados: Hubo buenos desempeños con todos los algoritmos empleados, pero se escogió el modelo generado con BIOCLIM (AUC: 0.89) pues además resuelve el inconveniente del sesgo espacial y temporal hallado en los registros de la especie. La región de mayor idoneidad de hábitat para C. hippurus coincide con los frentes oceánicos del Pacífico Oriental Tropical. En condiciones futuras de cambio climático extremo, el modelo de distribución de la especie indica una contracción, reubicación y expansión de hábitat hacia el sur de la línea ecuatorial. Conclusiones: En condiciones de cambio climático extremo, el modelo de distribución para C. hippurus sugiere un proceso de tropicalización de los ecosistemas marinos en el Pacífico Oriental Tropical para el año 2100.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and subsequent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) had widespread disruptive consequences on various sectors including tertiary education. Universities were shut down and forced to introduce emergency remote teaching and learning. This coincided with the period where the authors of this article started advanced professorial training through the Future Professors Programme Phase 2, Cohort 1 (FPP). Like other educators, the authors experienced COVID-19-linked challenges and opportunities and decided to report on this through a review of the literature and reflective writing. While most publications between 2020 and now focused on the challenges and opportunities caused by the pandemic within the teaching and learning environment, challenges and opportunities experienced in the research environment were less reported on. Often, the findings presented also focused on one discipline or in single institutions. This meant that the responses to address pandemic-associated disruptions would be limited in its view and weighted to teaching and learning and specific discipline(s). Set against the background of the South African higher education (HE) system, the authors review how COVID-19 augmented existing challenges as well as how it presented opportunities for improved teaching, learning and research. This is done by providing context to the challenges and opportunities of not only teaching and learning but of the research environment whilst focusing on several disciplines and institutions. While there is an overlap in the COVID-19 experience within the five Institutions (UCT, UWC, UJ, NWU and TUT) in terms of challenges and opportunities, the impact on research was as devastating as it was on teaching and learning with unique scenarios applicable to the respective disciplines/institutions. The supplemental FPP training and teachings placed the authors in a unique position compared to our peers, in our approach to dealing with the academic disruption. While the pandemic had a general negative outlook for most academics, the FPPs programme better prepared the authors to reimagine and reshape our teaching, learning and research practices to face future pandemics.

RESUMEN El proceso de toma de decisiones y el diseño e implementación de políticas públicas necesitan ser analizados en el marco de la influencia que ejerce sobre ellos la visión de futuros de los actores urbanos. El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la construcción de escenarios de futuro de las ciudades. En el artículo se argumenta que la construcción de escenarios futuros refleja una visión tanto del presente en cuanto a preocupaciones e intereses, como de la literacidad de futuro de actores urbanos. Este artículo analiza y caracteriza un corpus de escenarios diversos de ciudades de diferentes países. La caracterización de escenarios se basó en tendencias, visiones exploratorias o aspiraciones del futuro, así como en su grado de innovación, incertidumbre y complejidad. En general, los escenarios de futuros analizados dan cuenta de una postura normativa, determinista y tendencial de los actores urbanos, mientras la mayoría se encuentra en una “zona de baja incertidumbre” y con un nivel medio de innovación.

ABSTRACT The decision-making process and the design and implementation of public policies need to be analyzed within the framework of the influence exerted on them by urban actors’ vision of futures. The objective of this article is to analyze the construction of future scenarios for cities. The article argues that the construction of future scenarios reflects a vision of both the present in terms of concerns and interests, and the future literacy of urban actors. This article analyzes and characterizes a corpus of future scenarios of cities in different countries. The characterization of scenarios was based on trends, exploratory visions or aspirations for the future, as well as their degree of innovation, uncertainty and complexity. In general, the future scenarios analyzed show a normative, deterministic, and trend-oriented stance of urban actors, while the majority is in a “zone of low uncertainty” and with a medium level of innovation.

Resumen Se presenta la proyección climática de los regímenes de temperatura y precipitación en la provincia Holguín para el mediano plazo (2031-2060) y el largo plazo (2061-2090), respecto al período base 1971-2000. Se utilizaron las salidas del modelo climático global HadGEM-ES para los escenarios climáticos RCP (trayectorias de concentración representativas) RCP4,5 y RCP8,5. Al mismo tiempo, se emplearon los datos climáticos de las estaciones meteorológicas de Cabo Lucrecia, La Jíquima y Pinares de Mayarí en el período 1971-2005, las cuales son representativas de las zonas costera, interior y montañosa de la provincia respectivamente. Se aplicó la corrección BIAS (error medio) a partir del método delta y la interpolación por los métodos del inverso de la distancia y bilineal; en tanto, se contrastaron los valores del modelo HadGEM-ES con las observaciones de las estaciones meteorológicas utilizando como métricas de comparación los errores BIAS, RSME (raíz del error cuadrático medio, por sus siglas en inglés) y el Diagrama de Taylor. La corrección BIAS a partir del método delta permitió reducir los sesgos entre los valores anuales proyectados y los observados en el orden de 10-3 para la temperatura y 0,1 mm para la precipitación. Los resultados muestran que el clima de la provincia Holguín, referido a los regímenes de temperatura y precipitación, estaría transitando a ser más cálido y seco a la vez, con una posible redistribución de la precipitación dentro del año.

Abstract The climate projection of the temperature and precipitation regimes in the Holguín province for the medium term (2031-2060) and the long term (2061-2090), with respect to the base period 1971-2000 is presented. The outputs of the HadGEM-ES global climate model for the RCP (representative concentration trajectories) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios were used. At the same time, climatic data from the meteorological stations of Cabo Lucrecia, La Jíquima and Pinares de Mayarí in the period 1971-2005, which are representative of the coastal, inland and mountainous areas of the province respectively were used. The BIAS correction (mean error) was applied using the delta method and interpolation using the inverse distance and bilinear methods; Meanwhile, the values of the HadGEM-ES model were contrasted with observations from meteorological stations using BIAS, RSME (root mean square error) and Taylor Diagram errors as comparison metrics. The BIAS correction based on the delta method allowed us to reduce the biases between the projected and observed annual values in the order of 10-3 for temperature and 0.1 mm for precipitation. The results show that the climate of the Holguín province, referring to the temperature and precipitation regimes, would be becoming warmer and drier at the same time, with a possible redistribution of precipitation within the year.

Resumen Ecuador es un pequeño país andino ubicado en el hemisferio occidental de América del Sur. El país cuenta con 361.747 hm 3 anuales de recursos hídricos superficiales. Como resultado, Ecuador, en los últimos quince años (2005 a 2020), ha estado desarrollando proyectos hidroeléctricos para triplicar la producción en esta fuente renovable. Hubo ocho nuevas centrales hidroeléctricas construidas en Ecuador entre 2007 y 2015, en donde se invirtieron cerca de USD 6 mil millones en los proyectos, lo que incrementó la respuesta energética con renovables; por ejemplo, en 1985 el país produjo 4 TWh, en 2005 registró 7 TWh y hasta 2020, 24 TWh. Según la Corporación de Electricidad del Ecuador en 2020 informó que generó alrededor del 80% de toda la electricidad a través de hidroelectricidad. Así, el artículo tiene como objetivo analizar críticamente el desarrollo de la energía hidroeléctrica en Ecuador en los últimos años y establecer proyecciones energéticas generales al 2030 para ampliar los campos de conocimiento y perspectivas. La metodología del trabajo es cuantitativa, de acuerdo con fuentes editoriales científicas, artículos, documentos de investigación, y recolecta datos de agencias gubernamentales que regulan el desarrollo energético en Ecuador. Se concluye que, mediante un cálculo de proyecciones, Ecuador necesitará para el año 2030 alrededor de 43 TWh, 47 TWh o 52 TWh para abastecer la red energética, según los escenarios propuestos (bajo, medio, alto). Si bien la energía hidroeléctrica será fundamental para contribuir a este requerimiento, el país tiene una barrera porque la energía hidroeléctrica es muy sensible a factores externos de diversa índole, generando un futuro incierto directamente asociado a los efectos climáticos.

Abstract Ecuador is a small Andean country located in the western hemisphere of South America. The country has 361,747hm 3 annual superficial water resources; As a result, Ecuador, in the last fifteen years (2005 to 2020), has been rapidly developing hydropower projects to triple the production in this renewable source. There were eight new hydroelectric plants constructed in Ecuador among 2007 and 2015 invested close to USD 6 billion the projects. Increased the energy response with renewables; for example, in 1985, the country produced 4 TWh, in 2005-registered 7 TWh, and to 2020, 24 TWh. According to the Electricity Corporation of Ecuador in 2020 reported that generated around 80% of all electricity through hydropower; thus, the article aims to critically analyze the development of hydropower in Ecuador in recent years and establish general energy projections to 2030 to expand the fields of knowledge and perspectives. The paper methodology is quantitative, according to scientific editorial sources, articles, investigative documents, and collects data from government agencies that regulate energy development in Ecuador. It is conclusive between a projection’s calculation, Ecuador will need for the year 2030 around 43 TWh, 47 TWh, or 52 TWh to supply the energy grid, according to the scenarios proposed (low, medium, high). Although hydropower will be essential to contribute to this requirement, the country has a barrier because hydropower is very sensitive to external factors of diverse nature, generating an uncertainly future directly associated with climatic effects.

Verlorenvlei is a globally important RAMSAR wetland on the arid west coast of South Africa. A prolonged drought between 2016 and 2021 and increasing competition for water from the agricultural sector resulted in extremely low water levels. We used historical aerial and satellite imagery from 1942 and rainfall and water level data for the past 50 years, to assess habitat changes within the estuarine functional zone of the Verlorenvlei Estuarine Lake. Prior to the drought, lake water levels and water surface area remained stable (1113 ± 27 ha (SE)). Since then, there has been a 64% decrease in open water area, exposing 193 ha of sandbanks, of which 190.9 ha were hyper-sulfidic pyrite-rich. The water in the lower lake was hypersaline (>100), and in the middle, it was acidic (pH<3). The low water level plus sediment and nutrient input from surrounding agriculture resulted in a localised increase in reeds. Additional pressures, such as fires, have reduced the above-ground biomass of reeds and sedges, potentially altering surface morphology and reducing stored carbon. Despite flooding and filling up in June 2023, the lake remained in an acidic state (3.9-4.3). Similar low-lake level, hypersaline and acidic conditions are predicted to become more common under future climate change scenarios where aridity and extreme weather events are anticipated. Inflow of fresh water into the estuary and control of farming practices are required to keep the Verlorenvlei in a functional state, with long-term monitoring necessary to assess the ecological condition in response to restoration actions. SIGNIFICANCE: We assessed the habitat changes in Verlorenvlei, an estuarine lake on the arid west coast of South Africa. Estuarine lakes are scarce, and an extended drought greatly reduced the water surface area, exposing hyper-sulfidic pyrite-rich soils, leading to lake acidification and a negative response from biota. Competition for water from agribusiness and the burning of reeds are added pressures. Subsequent heavy rains have been slow to buffer lake acidity, and the impacts thereof serve as a warning for the management of similar ecosystems and their ecological water requirements, especially under climate change where extreme weather conditions, increased aridity and competition for water are realities.

Resumo O Acordo União Europeia-Mercado Comum do Sul, negociado desde o início de 2000, possui objetivos que vão além das relações comerciais. A cooperação proposta traz em seu conjunto a redução de barreiras tarifárias e não tarifárias, investimentos para o desenvolvimento de tecnologias, transporte, educação e, sobretudo, a promoção do desenvolvimento sustentável. Considerado como um dos maiores acordos inter-regionais, são grandes as perspectivas de uma próxima conclusão. Sopesando as questões que dificultam sua conclusão, o presente artigo tem como objetivo analisar, por meio de pesquisa bibliográfica e estudo documental, as implicações dos diversos cenários para a definitiva aprovação do Acordo. Para tanto, buscou-se estudar seu contexto histórico, desde a proposta inicial, passando pelas negociações e diversas interrupções ocorridas, para então avaliar o estado da arte e as perspectivas de concretização. A partir da análise realizada, concluiu-se que houve melhoria nas expectativas sobre a aprovação do Acordo, considerando a mudança recente no contexto político do Brasil e as diversas forças que têm sido realizadas nesse sentido. Contudo, as negociações são permeadas por influências políticas e cenários dinâmicos, que podem inviabilizar o consenso pretendido. A importância do presente estudo está relacionada às crescentes discussões sobre os efeitos do Acordo, principalmente no que tange à efetividade das cláusulas socioambientais negociadas, questão que pode ser analisada em trabalhos futuros, que avaliem a efetividade das cláusulas propostas e a possibilidade de harmonização das normas e políticas adotadas no âmbito das duas regiões.

Abstract The EU-Mercosur agreement, negotiated more than 20 years ago, has objectives that go beyond trade relations. The proposed cooperation includes the reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers, investment in technology development, transportation, education, and, above all, the promotion of sustainable development. Considered as one of the largest interregional agreements, the prospects for its future conclusion are great. Considering the issues that make its conclusion difficult, this article aims to analyze, through bibliographical research and documentary study, the implications of the different scenarios for a definitive approval of the Agreement. To this end, its historical context has been studied, from the initial proposal, through the negotiations and the various interruptions that have occurred, to then evaluate the state of the art and the prospects for completion. From the analysis carried out, it was concluded that expectations regarding the approval of the agreement have improved, considering the recent changes in the Brazilian political context and the various forces that have been exerted in this regard. However, the negotiations are permeated by political influences and dynamic scenarios that make the intended consensus unfeasible. The importance of the present study is related to the growing discussions about the impact of the agreement, mainly regarding the effectiveness of the negotiated socio-environmental clauses, an issue that can be analyzed in future work, which evaluates the effectiveness of the proposed clauses and the possibility of harmonizing standards and policies adopted within the two regions.

Resumen Introducción: se sabe que los festivales incrementan y valorizan el patrimonio intangible. Esta investigación busca propiciar la transformación de los festivales en escenarios que favorezcan el acceso a la difusión de las artes con criterios de equidad hacia las turistas mujeres. Objetivo principal: el propósito de este trabajo es investigar la participación de las turistas mujeres durante la asistencia al Festival de Artes Vivas de Loja-Ecuador en 2018, y determinar si tanto los hombres como las mujeres tienen una participación plena e igualitaria en la cultura; así como inferir las tendencias futuras. Método y técnica: esta investigación utiliza un enfoque cuantitativo de alcance exploratorio, se aplicaron 353 encuestas. Los datos se analizaron con base en la técnica de Clusters por Árboles de Regresión y al Análisis de Detección de Interacción Chi-cuadrado. Adicionalmente, se utilizaron cuatro estadísticos de prueba. Resultados: la probabilidad de asistencia de las turistas mujeres, así como sus gastos, fueron inferiores a la de los hombres. Las mujeres prefirieron las obras de teatro, la danza y las exposiciones gastronómicas. Los precios fueron percibidos como altos, lo que podría provocar el retorno de un pequeño porcentaje de las turistas mujeres. Conclusiones: la oferta cultural del festival no es inclusiva para las turistas mujeres. De persistir esta tendencia, la asistencia se polarizaría. El derecho de las turistas mujeres a participar como asistentes en las actividades de los festivales de arte debería ser un compromiso de la ciudad como política pública.

Abstract Introduction: festivals contribute to increasing heritage diversity. This research contributes to promoting the transformation of festivals into scenarios that favor access to the dissemination of the arts with criteria of equity towards women tourists.Objective: the purpose of this work is to investigate the participation of female tourists during Festival of Living Arts in Loja-Ecuador in 2018 in order to determine if both men and women have a full and equal participation in culture; as well as to infer future trends.Method and technique: this research use a quantitative approach of exploratory scope; 353 surveys were applied. Data were analyzed based on the regression tree technique and Chi-square Interaction Detection Analysis. Additionally, four test statisticians were used.Results: the probability of attendance of female tourists and their expenses were lower than men. Women tourists preferred plays, dance and gastronomic exhibitions. Prices were perceived as high, this would cause a return of a small percentage of female tourists.Conclusions: the cultural offer of the festival is not inclusive for female tourists. If this trend persists, attendance would become polarized. The right of female tourists to take part as attendees in the activities of art festivals should be a commitment of the city, as public policy.

Abstract This article explores the design and application of machine learning techniques to enhance traditional approaches for solving NP-hard optimization problems. Specifically, it focuses on the Last-Mile Routing Research Challenge (LMRRC), supported by Amazon and MIT, which sought innovative solutions for cargo routing optimization. While the challenge provided travel times and zone identifiers, the dependency on these factors raises concerns about the algorithms’ generalizability to different contexts and regions with standard delivery services registries. To address these concerns, this study proposes personalized cost matrices that incorporate both distance and time models, along with the relationships between delivery stops. Additionally, it presents an improved approach to sequencing stops by combining exact and approximate algorithms, utilizing a customized regression technique alongside fine-tuned metaheuristics and heuristics refinements. The resulting methodology achieves competitive scores on the LMRRC validation dataset, which comprises routes from the USA. By carefully delineating route characteristics, the study enables the selection of specific technique combinations for each route, considering its geometrical and geographical attributes. Furthermore, the proposed methodologies are successfully applied to real-case scenarios of last-mile deliveries in Montevideo (Uruguay), demonstrating similar average scores and accuracy on new testing routes. This research contributes to the advancement of last-mile delivery optimization by leveraging personalized cost matrices and algorithmic refinements. The findings highlight the potential for improving existing approaches and their adaptability to diverse geographic contexts, paving the way for more efficient and effective delivery services in the future.

Resumen Este artículo explora el diseño y aplicación de técnicas de aprendizaje automático para mejorar los enfoques tradicionales y así resolver problemas de optimización NP-hard. En particular, se enfoca en el Last-Mile Routing Research Challenge (LMRRC), apoyado por Amazon y MIT, que buscaba soluciones innovadoras para la optimización de rutas de carga. Si bien el desafío proporcionó tiempos de viaje e identificadores de zona, la dependencia de estos factores plantea preocupaciones sobre la generalización de los algoritmos a diferentes contextos y regiones con registros de servicios de entrega estándar. Para abordar estas interrogantes, este estudio propone matrices de costos personalizadas que incorporan modelos de distancia y tiempo, junto con las relaciones entre las paradas de entrega. Además, presenta enfoques mejorados para la secuenciación de paradas mediante la combinación de algoritmos exactos y aproximados, utilizando técnicas de regresión personalizada junto con metaheurísticas y refinamientos heurísticos ajustados. La metodología resultante logra puntajes competitivos en el conjunto de datos de validación LMRRC, que usa rutas de EE. UU. Al delinear cuidadosamente las características de la ruta, el estudio permite la selección de combinaciones de técnicas específicas para cada ruta, considerando sus atributos geométricos y geográficos. Además, las metodologías propuestas se aplican con éxito a escenarios de casos reales de entregas en Montevideo (Uruguay), demostrando puntajes promedio y precisión similares en nuevas rutas de prueba. Esta investigación contribuye al avance de la optimización de la entrega de última milla al aprovechar matrices de costos personalizadas y refinamientos algorítmicos. Los hallazgos resaltan el potencial para mejorar los enfoques existentes y su adaptabilidad a diversos contextos geográficos, allanando el camino para servicios de entrega más eficientes y efectivos en el futuro.

Abstract This article discusses questions concerning the future of humanity in the face of threats to the health of populations, whose impact has been exacerbated in the course of inequalities in all parts of the world, pari passu with global development in the hegemonized model since last century. The COVID-19 pandemic is a good example that illustrates this dissonance between development and inequalities. Questions were formulated to be debated about the construction of the future of world society, based on the understanding of the evolutionary character of life on the planet vis-à-vis the evils that affect large contingents of the population and represent powerful risks for this evolutionary process. These questions call attention to the discussion around social participation in the definition and control of public policies, as opposed to the hegemony of private interests in the formulation and execution of these policies, both in the scenarios of each country and in the international context. populations century COVID19 COVID 19 COVID-1 society visàvis vis à process policies context COVID1 1 COVID-

Resumo O artigo discute questões sobre o futuro da humanidade ante as ameaças que rondam a saúde das populações, cujo impacto vem se exacerbando no curso das desigualdades em todas as partes do mundo, pari passu o desenvolvimento global no modelo hegemonizado a partir do século passado. A pandemia de COVID-19 foi tomada como um caso que bem ilustra essa dessintonia entre desenvolvimento e desigualdades. Formulam-se perguntas a serem postas em debate sobre a construção do futuro da sociedade mundial, com base na acepção sobre o caráter evolucional da vida no planeta vis-à-vis os males que acometem grandes contingentes populacionais e representam poderosos riscos para esse processo evolutivo. São indagações que apontam para a discussão em torno da participação social na definição e no controle das políticas públicas, em contrapartida à hegemonia dos interesses privados na formulação e execução dessas políticas, tanto nos cenários de cada país como no contexto internacional. populações mundo passado COVID19 COVID 19 COVID-1 Formulamse Formulam mundial visàvis vis evolutivo públicas internacional COVID1 1 COVID-

Higher Education needs to be reimagined considering the exciting developments within virtual reality and artificial intelligence. As a new generation, Generation Alpha, better known as Gen Alpha,1 is preparing for higher education, and educators are challenged to create opportunities to meet their needs. In this study, we explore an existing paradigm, scenario planning, but within an unfamiliar context - the future of higher education. We pose the question: What are the possible future scenarios within higher education that will appeal to the Gen Alpha student and a millennial parent in a post-pandemic world? As a result, we present a scenario matrix with four learning and teaching models forecast to be successful in 2030 in higher education institutions. These four learning and teaching models are based on two axes: Social connect vs social disconnect in learning and teaching and a single career option or multiple career options as the end goal for the student. Respondents of this longitudinal study are millennial parents of Gen Alpha students. Results indicate that the three main themes that will influence the learning and teaching models of the future are learning spaces and places, glass learning, and techceptance. In line with the three themes, the three major findings were that (1) millennial parents are open to hybrid learning approaches, (2) learning on screens is important, but it should be regulated and based on set standards, and lastly (3) millennial parents are accepting technology (techceptance) as a supportive tool and learning place in higher education. Overall, there was a positive shift in perspectives on higher education regardless of the impact of the pandemic. The outcomes of the research will assist higher educational institutions to strategically align the learning and teaching offerings with the needs and resources of the future student, namely Gen Alpha.