RESUMEN El financiamiento externo es una de las limitantes del desarrollo en emprendimiento MIPYMES entre los cuales se encuentran los emprendimientos agropecuarios. Por tanto, el trabajo de investigación, tuvo como objetivo identificar el origen del financiamiento externo en productores hortícolas de tres localidades del distrito de Julián Augusto Saldívar, Departamento Central. Se aplicó una investigación con enfoque cuantitativo de alcance descriptivo. El diseño del mismo es no experimental cuantitativa. Se aplica el método de la entrevista en profundidad para un mejor abordaje de los sujetos. La totalidad de las fincas son del tipo familiar. El 48% de los emprendimientos no operan con financiamiento o crédito externo, el 52% cuenta con algún nivel de endeudamiento. El Crédito Agrícola de Habilitación (CAH) ha aportado financiamiento a un 22%. El Ministerio de Agricultura y Ganadería a un 9%. El 33% afirma haber recibido financiamiento de Bancos. Las Cooperativas han aportado al financiamiento a un 25%. Las Casas de Crédito a un 9%. Las fundaciones aportaron a un 13%. Finalmente, existe un 8% que considera al Crédito de Proveedores como fuentes de financiamiento. Considerando que el 52% de los encuestados informa contar con endeudamiento, se puede afirmar que, si bien el financiamiento externo a nivel general puede considerarse escaso, por la falta de acceso al crédito, los emprendimientos estudiados se encontrarían un poco por encima de las estadísticas nacionales.

ABSTRACT External financing is one of the limitations of development in MSME entrepreneurship, among which are agricultural ventures. Therefore, the objective of the research work was to identify the origin of external financing in horticultural producers in three locations in the district of Julián Augusto Saldívar, Central Department. A research with a quantitative approach of descriptive scope was applied. Its design is non-experimental quantitative. The in-depth interview method is applied for a better approach to the subjects. All of the farms are family-type. 48% of the ventures do not operate with external financing or credit, 52% have some level of debt. The Agricultural Habilitation Credit (CAH) has provided financing to 22%. The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock at 9%. 33% claim to have received financing from banks. The Cooperatives have contributed 25% to the financing. Credit Houses at 9%. The foundations contributed 13%. Finally, there is 8% that consider Supplier Credit as sources of financing. Considering that 52% of those surveyed reports having debt, it can be stated that, although external financing at a general level can be considered scarce, due to the lack of access to credit, the ventures studied would be a little above the statistics national.

Resumo A economia brasileira tem dois períodos considerados como perdidos em termos de crescimento econômico e outros indicadores sociais. O primeiro é a década de 1980, na qual o país teve que lidar com o endividamento externo, hiperinflação, concentração de renda e diversos planos de estabilização que não obtiveram sucesso. A década de 1990 é uma continuação da década anterior e, apesar do êxito do Plano Real, também ficou conhecida na literatura como a segunda década perdida em decorrência do baixo crescimento, desemprego elevado e agravamento da desigualdade de renda. Na década de 2010, a taxa média de crescimento da economia brasileira foi inferior às apresentadas nas décadas de 1980 e 1990, o que permite questionar se os anos de 2010 podem ser caracterizados como a terceira década perdida. Portanto, responder a esse questionamento é o objetivo deste artigo. Classificação JEL: E32; E05; E65.

Abstract The Brazilian economy has two periods considered lost in terms of economic growth and other social indicators. The first one is the 1980s, during which the country had to deal with external debt, hyperinflation, income inequality, and various stabilization plans that were unsuccessful. The 1990s continued the challenges of the previous decade, and despite the success of the Real Plan, it is also known in the literature as the second lost decade due to low growth, high unemployment, and worsening income inequality. In the 2010s, the average growth rate of the Brazilian economy was lower than that of the 1980s and 1990s, which raises the question of whether the 2010s can be characterized as the third lost decade. Therefore, addressing this question is the objective of this article.

Resumen El descenso de la actividad económica y de los ingresos públicos durante el periodo de la crisis sanitaria sigue afectando los presupuestos de los países africanos. Estas dificultades financieras se deben, por una parte, al aumento de los gastos sanitarios y, por otra, al apoyo prestado a hogares y empresas durante el periodo de confinamiento. Esta situación limita la acción de los gobiernos en la prosecución de transformaciones estructurales. Los recursos provenientes de financiamiento externo han disminuido, con una caída en picada de los flujos netos de capital hacia los países de renta baja y media-baja. El aumento de los tipos de interés en los países desarrollados podría empujar a las naciones muy endeudadas a una crisis de deuda. La situación se agrava aún más por la disminución de los ingresos en divisas. El objetivo del artículo es esbozar las principales causas de la falta de financiación en África, la cual obstaculiza la continuación de las transformaciones estructurales y la consecución del nivel de desarrollo deseado. Al mismo tiempo, destaca las oportunidades de desarrollo y de mejor integración en la economía mundial que se derivan de esta crisis. Esto necesariamente requerirá la puesta en marcha de sistemas de financiación innovadores y resilientes.

Abstract The decline in economic activity and public revenues during the health crisis continues to burden the budgets of African countries. These financial difficulties are due, on the one hand, to the increase in healthcare expenses and, on the other hand, to the support provided to households and businesses during the lockdown period. This situation limits the actions of governments in pursuing structural transformations. External resources have declined, with net capital flows to low-income and lower-middle-income countries plummeting. The increase in interest rates in developed countries could push heavily indebted nations into a debt crisis. The situation is further exacerbated by the decrease in foreign currency revenues. The objective of this article is to outline the main causes of the lack of financing in Africa, which hinders the continuation of structural transformations and the achievement of the desired level of development. At the same time, the article highlights the opportunities for development and better integration into the global economy that arise from this crisis. This will necessarily involve the implementation of innovative and resilient financing systems.

Abstract Purpose: This study empirically investigates the relationship between goodwill assets and capital structure (i.e. debt ratio) of firms and the moderating effect of financial market development on the relationship between goodwill assets and capital structure. Design/methodology/approach: This research applied a quantitative method. The article collects large samples of listed firms from 23 developing and nine developed countries and applied the panel data techniques. This research used firm-level data from the DataStream database for both developed and developing countries. The study uses 4,912 firm-level data from 23 developing countries and 4,303 firm-level data from nine developed countries. Findings: The findings reveal a significant positive relationship between goodwill assets and capital structure in developing countries, but goodwill assets have a significant negative relationship with capital structure in developed countries. Moreover, financial market development positively moderates the relationship between goodwill assets and the capital structure of firms in developing countries. The results inform firm managers that goodwill assets serve as additional collateral to secure debt financing. Moreover, policymakers should formulate a debt market policy that recognizes goodwill assets as additional collateral for the purpose of obtaining debt capital. Research limitations/implications: The study has several implications. First, goodwill assets are identified as a factor of capital structure in this study. Fixed assets have been identified as one of the drivers of capital structure in previous research, although goodwill assets are seldom included. Second, this article shows that along with demand-side determinants, supply-side determinants also play an important role in terms of the firms' choice about the capital structure. Therefore, firms should take both the demand-side and supply-side factors into consideration when sourcing for external financing (i.e. debt capital). Originality/value: The study considered goodwill as a component of capital structure. The study analysis includes a large sample of enterprises, including 4,912 big firms from 23 developing countries and 4,303 large firms from nine industrialized or developed countries, which adds to the current capital structure information. Furthermore, a large sample size increases the results' robustness and generalizability.

Resumo Este artigo teve como objetivo investigar a relação entre a incerteza da política econômica e a dívida de longo e curto prazo das empresas brasileiras negociadas na bolsa de valores Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão (B3). A discrepância entre os resultados anteriores levanta questões sobre o entendimento atual da relação entre a dívida e a incerteza da política econômica. Análises separadas de dívidas de longo e curto prazo fornecem insights diferentes sobre como as decisões corporativas são afetadas. Essa discrepância desafia nosso entendimento atual da complexa dinâmica entre a dívida e a incerteza da política econômica. A amostra da pesquisa consiste em 163 empresas brasileiras listadas na B3 entre 2010 e 2019, com periodicidade trimestral. Os modelos de linha de base consideraram a dívida de longo e curto prazo como endógena, levando em conta as características da empresa e do país. Empregamos uma abordagem de painel de dois estágios do método dos momentos generalizado sistêmico (generalized method of moments - GMM-sys) para lidar com a possível endogeneidade nas estimativas. Como o mercado de dívida desempenha um papel crucial na avaliação e no desempenho das empresas, é cada vez mais importante estudar a dinâmica da dívida corporativa de longo e curto prazo em meio aos desafios desencadeados pela disseminação da incerteza da política econômica no ambiente de negócios. Esclarecer como as dívidas de longo e curto prazo se comportam sob essa pressão é particularmente relevante, pois reforça as implicações já observadas e potenciais para a adaptabilidade corporativa no uso de fundos externos. O impacto deste estudo está em revelar a coexistência das decisões cautelosas das empresas na busca de fundos representativos e a posição conservadora dos investimentos corporativos em relação às incertezas que cercam a política econômica. Os resultados sugerem que níveis mais altos de incerteza da política econômica estão associados a uma diminuição no uso de dívidas de longo prazo e a um aumento nas dívidas de curto prazo. Em resposta a um aumento da incerteza da política econômica, as empresas tendem a depender menos da dívida de longo prazo e, em vez disso, optam por aumentar o uso da dívida de curto prazo. Esses resultados se mantêm consistentes em diferentes especificações propostas. Brasil Bolsa B3. B . (B3) afetadas 16 201 2019 trimestral endógena país generalized GMMsys GMM sys GMM-sys estimativas negócios relevante externos disso propostas (B3 1 20 (B 2

Abstract This article aimed to investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and long- and short-term debt of Brazilian firms traded on the Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão (B3) stock exchange. The discrepancy in previous results raises questions about the current understanding of the relationship between debt and EPU. Separate analyses of long- and short-term debt provide different insights into how corporate decisions are affected. This discrepancy challenges our existing understanding of the complex dynamics between debt and EPU. The research sample consists of 163 Brazilian firms listed on the B3 between 2010 and 2019 on a quarterly basis. The baseline models considered long- and short-term debt as endogenous, taking into account firm and country characteristics. We employed a two-stage system generalized method of moments (GMM-sys) panel approach to deal with potential endogeneity in the estimates. As the debt market plays a crucial role in corporate valuation and performance, it is increasingly important to study the dynamics of long- and short-term corporate debt amidst the challenges triggered by the spread of EPU in the business environment. Clarifying how both long- and short-term debt perform under such pressure is particularly relevant since it reinforces already observed and potential implications for corporate adaptability in the use of external funds. The impact of this study lies in revealing the coexistence of firms’ cautious decisions in seeking representative funds and the conservative position for corporate investments regarding uncertainties that surround economic policy. The findings suggest that higher levels of EPU are associated with a decrease in the use of long-term debt and an increase in short-term debt. In response to increased EPU, companies tend to rely less on long-term debt and instead opt for increased use of short-term debt. These results hold consistently across different proposed specifications. (EPU long shortterm short term Brasil Bolsa B (B3 exchange affected 16 201 basis endogenous characteristics twostage two stage GMMsys GMM sys (GMM-sys estimates performance environment longterm specifications (B 1 20 2

Abstract The objective of this article is to examine the particular aspects of the early renegotiation of the foreign debt -covering the period 1983 to 1985- carried out under the government of President Raúl Alfonsín. To this end, we will make use of the contributions of Puigian Autonomism in our analysis.

Resumen Este artículo tiene por finalidad examinar los aspectos particulares de la temprana renegociación de la deuda externa-abarcando el período 1983 a 1985-llevada a cabo bajo el gobierno del presidente Raúl Alfonsín. Para ello haremos uso de los aportes del Autonomismo puigiano en nuestro análisis.

RESUMEN Este trabajo pretende demostrar que la actual crisis bancaria que se ha presentado en Estados Unidos no es un evento aislado ni coyuntural, sino que es el más reciente acontecimiento de una continua serie de ciclos de fragilidad financiera ocasionada por el manejo conservador de la política monetaria de la Reserva Federal desde 1965. Para esto realizamos un análisis teórico y descriptivo crítico que muestra el impacto de la Reserva Federal sobre la valoración cíclica de los portafolios en Estados Unidos y también el efecto adverso en la dinámica macroeconómica de América Latina desde 1980. La conclusión es que la fragilidad financiera creciente de los balances de los agentes durante el auge provoca que las medidas de control inflacionario mediante la tasa de interés tengan un efecto incluso permanente en la economía.

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that the current banking crisis in the United States is not an isolated or conjunctural event, but rather the most recent event in a continuous series of cycles of financial fragility caused by the conservative management of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy since 1965. For this purpose, a critical theoretical and descriptive analysis is carried out, showing the impact of the Federal Reserve on the cyclical valuation of portfolios in the United States and also the adverse effect on the macroeconomic dynamics of Latin America since 1980. The conclusion is that the increasing financial fragility of agents’ balance sheets during the boom causes inflationary control measures through the interest rate to have an adverse permanent effect on the economy.

Abstract Objective: we apply Blanchard’s model (1983) to Mexico. We analyze the accumulation of external debt and its sustainability. Methodology: We calibrate the model for the year 2019. Using the time elimination method, we determine the stable arms of the model. Results: we present three simulations that promote production. First, an increase in productivity causes the Proportion of External Debt/GDP (PEDGDP) to rise to 26.9%. Second, a decrease in the population growth rate causes the PEDGDP to increase slightly. Third, a decrease in the International Interest Rate (IIR) produces a large increase in PEDGDP, to 44.01%, sustainable level. We show that PEDGDP is very sensitive to IIR, which can produce over-indebtedness. Recommendations: the sensitivity of PDPIB to the IIR puts us on notice to have prudent macroeconomic policies. Limitations: the households lack restrictions on international credit. Originality: This methodology has not been applied to Mexico. Conclusions: The economic cycles through which production and external debt of Mexico, pass go hand in hand with the variation of the IIR, over-indebtedness will always be present.

Resumen Objetivo: Se aplica el modelo de Blanchard (1983) para México. Se analiza la acumulación de la deuda externa y su sostenibilidad. Metodología: Se calibra el modelo para el año 2019. Utilizando el método de eliminación del tiempo, se determinan los brazos estables del modelo. Resultados: Se realizan tres simulaciones que promueven la producción. Primero, un aumento en la productividad produce que la Proporción Deuda Externa/PIB (PDEPIB) aumente al 26.9%. Segundo, una disminución de la tasa de crecimiento de la población produce que la PDEPIB se incremente ligeramente. Tercera, una disminución de la Tasa de Interés Internacional (TII) produce un gran aumento en PDEPIB, al 44.01%, nivel sostenible. Se muestra que PDEPIB es muy sensible a la TII, que puede producir sobreendeudamiento. Recomendaciones: La sensibilidad de PDPIB a la TII, nos pone en aviso de tener políticas macroeconómicas prudentes. Limitaciones: los hogares carecen de restricciones al crédito internacional. Originalidad: Esta metodologia no ha sido aplicada a México. Conclusiones: Los ciclos económicos por los cuales transita la producción y la deuda externa de México, van aparejados con la variación de la TII, sobreendeudamiento siempre estará presente.

Resumen La Argentina atravesó un largo conflicto con los acreedores afectados por la cesación de pagos de 2001. Un grupo reducido, especializado en litigar a largos plazos, logró afectar no solo el acceso del país al mercado de capitales sino la dinámica política nacional. Se analizan aquí las coaliciones políticas que se conformaron en torno al conflicto del Estado argentino con los llamados “fondos buitre”, y los principales argumentos e ideas en torno al problema de deuda soberana. Para ello, se analizan los debates en el Congreso por la Ley de Pago Soberano de 2014 y su posterior derogación bajo la Ley de Cancelación de Deuda en Cesación de Pago de 2016. Se mapea de esta forma las principales posiciones políticas y discursos en el marco de un importante giro en el tratamiento del conflicto. Se argumenta que ambas leyes fueron claves en la configuración de las fuerzas políticas en disputa.

Abstract Argentina went through a long conflict with creditors affected by 2001 debt default. A small group, specialized in long-term litigation, managed to affect not only the country's access to the capital market but also the dynamics of the national political arena. This paper analyzes the political coalitions that were formed around the Argentine State's conflict with the so-called "vulture funds", and the main arguments and ideas surrounding the sovereign debt problem. To this end, we proceed to analyze the debates in Congress over the 2014 Sovereign Payment Law and its subsequent repeal under the 2016 Debt Cancellation in Cessation of Payment Law. It thus maps the main political positions and discourses in the context of an important shift in the treatment of the conflict. It is argued that both laws were key in shaping the contending political forces.

Abstract: This research focused the objective of optimizing financial processes and improving decision-making to have a positive effect on the profitability of the business, based on the proposal of an operational financial management model for the company Bonanza S.A. from the city of Santo Domingo. The methodology used focuses on a mixed approach, with a non-experimental cross-sectional design. The types of explanatory, comparative, descriptive and exploratory research have been used in order to meet the proposed objectives. Likewise, a logical order of financial techniques and tools was taken into account for the model proposal. From the analysis carried out based on the data collected, it is inferred that returns of cash equivalents due to non-compliance with contracts produced a loss in the year after the pandemic. The projections showed that the company has excess levels of external financing, although its debt levels are moderate in the current period analyzed. It is suggested to systematically monitor the applied techniques and a consequent analysis of the benefits in the management of contracts with public and private entities under terms that benefit the progress of the company.

Resumen: Esta investigación se planteó como objetivo optimizar los procesos financieros y mejorar la toma de decisiones para tener un efecto positivo en la rentabilidad del negocio. Se realizó a partir de la propuesta de un modelo de gestión financiera operativa para la compañía Bonanza S.A. de la ciudad de Santo Domingo. La metodología utilizada se centra en un enfoque mixto y con un diseño no experimental del tipo transversal. Han sido utilizados los tipos de investigación explicativo, comparativo, descriptivo y exploratorio con la finalidad de cumplir con los objetivos propuestos. Asimismo, se tuvieron en cuenta un orden lógico de técnicas y herramientas financieras para la propuesta del modelo. Del análisis realizado a partir de los datos recabados se infiere que las devoluciones de equivalentes de efectivo por no cumplimiento de contratos produjeron una pérdida en el año posterior a la pandemia. Las proyecciones evidenciaron que la compañía presenta excesos de niveles de financiamiento externo, aunque sus niveles de endeudamiento son moderados en el periodo actual analizado. Se sugiere hacer un seguimiento sistemático de las técnicas aplicadas y un análisis consecuente de los beneficios en las gestiones de contratos con entidades públicas y privadas bajo términos que beneficien el progreso de la compañía.

Abstract Before the pandemic, the economic development of Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSME) in Latin America showed gradual signs of recovery after the problems that occurred in years 2009 and 2016. As of 2017, Mexico maintained a growing inflation of 5% on average, the price of energy increased 20%, an external debt growth of 12% and a GDP lesser than 1.6% per year (Banco Mundial, 2020), (OCDE, 2019), (INEGI, 2018). By the end of 2019, SARS-CoV-2 (COVID - 2019) evidenced failure factors that exacerbated the permanence of MSMEs, since closed more than 30.6% of them (Naciones Unidas, 2021). In this research, these factors are discussed, by compiling information on economic behavior, and quantitative studies of the commercial, manufacturing and services sectors. To identify these factors, 246 Mexican MSMEs that closed between September 2019 and December 2020 were selected using stratified random sampling. The results showed failure factors associated with the capabilities of the administrator and internal aspects of the company, among which the lack of vision to identify new businesses and little knowledge of Information Technology stand out.

Resumen Antes de la pandemia el desarrollo económico de las Micro, Pequeñas y Medianas Empresas (MiPyME) en Latinoamérica presentaba indicios paulatinos de recuperación tras los problemas presentados en los años 2009 y 2016. México a partir del 2017 mantuvo una inflación creciente del 5% promedio, el precio de los energéticos aumentó en un 20%, el crecimiento de la deuda externa un 12% y el PIB fue menor al 1.6% anual (Banco Mundial, 2020), (OCDE, 2019), (INEGI, 2018). Para finales del 2019, el SARS-CoV-2 (COVID - 2019) evidenció factores de fracaso que agudizaron la permanencia de las MiPyME ya que cerraron más del 30.6% de ellas (Naciones Unidas, 2021). En esta investigación se discuten dichos factores, para ello, se recopiló información del comportamiento económico, y de estudios cuantitativos de los sectores comerciales, manufactura y servicios. Para identificar estos factores, se encuestaron a 246 MiPyME mexicanas que cerraron entre septiembre del 2019 y diciembre del 2020, las cuales fueron seleccionadas mediante muestreo aleatorio estratificado. Los resultados evidenciaron factores de fracaso asociados a las capacidades del administrador y a aspectos internos de la empresa, entre los que destacan la falta de visión para identificar nuevos negocios y poco conocimiento de las Tecnologías de la Información.

Resumen El estudio histórico de las revistas y publicaciones periódicas viene cobrando un impuso importante durante la última década. Especialmente en los análisis de las dimensiones económica y de política económica, generalmente menos atendidos frente a otras como la cultural o estrictamente política. En este trabajo, se propone abordar la publicación El Periodista de Buenos Aires (1984-1989) -en adelante, EP-, un semanario nacido al calor del regreso de la democracia argentina en 1983 que no cuenta con estudios sobre su staff económico. La publicación, que mantuvo una filiación cercana a las izquierdas democráticas de aquel entonces, abrió debates de primer orden en torno a la política económica de los ochenta. Así, se analizan sus trayectorias políticas y económicas, sus antecedentes, temas de interés y principales debates recuperando las metodologías utilizadas recientemente. Se concluyó en que, a pesar de cierta distancia con el gobierno, los analistas del EP mostraron cierto apoyo al Plan del ministro Bernardo Grinspun. También, que, junto con tener posturas firmes sobre los temas más controversiales de la economía como el deterioro de los ingresos o la fuga de capitales, radicalizaron sus posiciones a medida que se deterioraba la macroeconomía nacional.

Abstract The historical study of magazines and periodicals has gained momentum over the last decade, particularly in the analysis of economic and economic policy dimensions, which have generally received less attention compared to cultural or strictly political aspects. This work aims to address the publication El Periodista de Buenos Aires (1984-1989), hereinafter referred to as EP, a weekly magazine born in the midst of the return of Argentine democracy in 1983, which lacks studies on its economic content. The publication, closely affiliated with the democratic left of that time, initiated significant debates regarding the economic policy of the 1980s. Thus, this study examines their political and economic trajectories, background, topics of interest, and main debates, utilizing recently developed methodologies. The findings indicate that, despite maintaining a certain distance from the government, EP analysts expressed support for Minister Bernardo Grinspun's Plan. Additionally, it was observed that, while taking firm stances on contentious economic issues such as income deterioration or capital flight, they radicalized their positions as the national macroeconomy deteriorated.

Resumen El artículo analiza las acciones del agente financiero de México en Londres, F. de Lizardi y Compañía, en relación con el pago del servicio de deuda externa. En el periodo propuesto se encuentra una relación conflictiva entre este y el ministro plenipotenciario de México en la misma ciudad, debido a la serie de acciones del agente, que privilegiaban su interés particular en lugar del de la república. A través del estudio de documentación oficial, correspondencia entre los dos actores y de estos con el comité de tenedores de bonos, así como con notas hemerográficas, se busca comprender de mejor forma el enfrentamiento entre intereses privados y públicos en la incipiente diplomacia financiera mexicana.

Abstract The article analyzes the actions of the financial agent of Mexico in London, F. de Lizardi y Co., in relation to the payment of the external debt service. In the proposed period, there was a conflictive relationship between him and the plenipotentiary minister of Mexico in the same city, due to the series of actions of the agent, which privileged his particular interest instead of the republic. Through the study of official documentation, correspondence between the two actors and with the bondholders’ committee, as well as newspaper notes, the aim is to better understand the way of confrontation between private and public interests in the incipient Mexican financial diplomacy.

RESUMO As principais características do processo de industrialização brasileiro e seus desdobramentos, com a crise da dívida externa nos anos 1990 e as mudanças trazidas pela liberalização econômica nessa mesma década, foram temas intensamente debatidos por David Kupfer ao longo de sua profícua carreira acadêmica. Mais recentemente, quando avança o processo de desindustrialização da economia brasileira, Kupfer introduziu o termo “doença industrial brasileira” para se referir à crise crônica que se abateu sobre a indústria nos últimos quarenta anos. Nessa discussão, um dos temas recorrentes foi o da insuficiência da política de ciência, tecnologia e inovação (C,T&I) implementada no país nos anos 2000 para alavancar o desenvolvimento industrial. Esse é o objeto deste artigo, ao discutir os resultados mais recentes trazidos pela Pesquisa de Inovação (Pintec) à luz das contribuições de Kupfer. O declínio da política de C,T&I se explicita na última edição da Pintec, em 2017, confirmando aspectos antecipados pelo autor em diversos trabalhos.

ABSTRACT The main features of the Brazilian industrialization process and its consequences, with the external debt crisis in the 1990s and the changes brought by economic liberalization in the same decade, were themes intensely debated by David Kupfer throughout his fruitful academic career. More recently, when the deindustrialization process of the Brazilian economy advanced, Kupfer introduced the term “Brazilian industrial disease” to refer to the chronic crisis that impacted Brazilian industry over the last 40 years. In this discussion, one of the recurrent themes was the insufficiency of the science, technology, and innovation (S,T&I) policy implemented in the country in the 2000s to leverage the industrial development. This is the object of this article, when discussing the most recent results brought by the Innovation Survey (Pintec) in the light of Kupfer’s contributions. The decline of the S,T&I policy is made explicit in the latest edition of Pintec, in 2017, confirming aspects anticipated by the author in several works.

Abstract This article aims to propose a new approach to the empirical testing of the pecking order theory that tackles commonly reported issues and apply it to the analysis of Brazilian companies. The main gaps bridged herein are the lack of clear definitions for safe debt and financial slack; the lack of control, in regressions, for the financing sources’ capabilities; and the failure to consider future investment opportunities in financing analyses. We adopt methods that enable controlling for the information the companies have about each financing source’s capabilities, at the time their financing decisions are made, while taking current and future investment opportunities into account. The proposed methodology offers a rather controlled environment to test the pecking order theory, which can be adapted to study other topics in finance, supporting advances in understanding the raising and allocation of funds by listed companies. Four integrated financing and cash holding policies are defined, which lead to different expected internal deficits (or surpluses). The relationships between these deficits (or surpluses), at different levels, and the flows that are observed at the external sources of funds are analyzed in cross-section and panel data quantile regressions, controlling for each source’s capabilities, in unbalanced data panels with 4,465 observations of 223 companies. By studying the relationships between expected internal financing deficits (or surpluses) and the flows that are observed at the external sources of funds, we contribute with a new capital structure testing methodology, and we find strong evidence that Brazilian listed companies follow the pecking order theory. slack control regressions capabilities analyses source s made account finance defined or surpluses. surpluses . surpluses, , levels crosssection cross section 4465 4 465 4,46 22 446 46 4,4 2 44 4,

Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é propor uma nova abordagem para teste empírico da teoria de pecking order que lide com problemas comumente reportados e aplicá-la à análise de empresas brasileiras. As principais lacunas preenchidas são a falta de definições claras para dívida segura e folga financeira; a falta de controle, nas regressões, pelas capacidades das fontes de recursos; e a não consideração das oportunidades futuras de investimento em análises de financiamento. Disponibilizam-se métodos que oferecem controles em relação às informações que as empresas possuem acerca das capacidades de cada fonte de recursos, quando das decisões de financiamento e que levam em consideração as oportunidades de investimento atuais e futuras. A metodologia proposta oferece um ambiente mais controlado para o teste da teoria de pecking order, que pode ser adaptado para estudar outros tópicos em finanças, apoiando avanços na compreensão da captação e uso de recursos por parte de empresas de capital aberto. São definidas quatro políticas integradas de financiamento e cash holdings, que levam a diferentes déficits (ou superávits) internos esperados. As relações entre esses déficits (ou superávits), em diferentes níveis, e os fluxos de recursos observados nas fontes externas são analisadas em regressões quantílicas cross-section e em painel, controlando pelas capacidades de cada fonte, em painéis de dados desbalanceados com 4.465 observações de 223 empresas. Por meio do estudo das relações entre os déficits (ou superávits) de financiamento interno esperados e os fluxos observados nas fontes externas de recursos, contribuímos com uma nova metodologia de testes de estrutura de capital e encontramos fortes evidências de que as empresas brasileiras de capital aberto seguem a teoria de pecking order. aplicála aplicá la financeira controle Disponibilizamse Disponibilizam se finanças holdings ou superávits superávits, , níveis crosssection cross section painel 4465 4 465 4.46 22 446 46 4.4 2 44 4.