Resumo O trabalho avaliou o comportamento do mercado mundial de arroz nas dimensões produção, importação e exportação, considerando o período de 1990 a 2019. Foram estimados índices de concentração (razões de concentração dos dois maiores (CR2), dos cinco maiores (CR5) e dos dez maiores (CR10) players, quartéis de concentração e Índice Herfindahl-Hirschmann) e taxas de crescimento, calculadas projeções de médio prazo e proposto um índice de presença dos países nesse mercado. A produção de arroz no mundo apresentou níveis elevados de concentração em 1990 (CR2 58%, CR5 75%, CR10 87%, IHH >1800) e foi se tornando menos concentrada em 2000 e 2010 (IHH entre 1400 e 1550), alcançando em 2019 CR2 de 51%, CR5 de 71%, CR10 de 84% e IHH de 1508. A importação mundial de arroz, que apresentava elevados níveis de concentração em 1990 (CR2 56%, CR5 79%, CR10 94%, IHH 1830), passou por um processo de desconcentração ao longo do tempo, alcançando níveis moderados de concentração em 2019 (CR2 42%, CR5 61%, CR10 80% e IHH 1152). A exportação mundial apresenta elevados níveis de concentração em poucos países (CR2 >70%, CR5 >85%, CR10 >90%, IHH >3000). China, Índia, Indonésia, Tailândia e Estados Unidos apresentam os maiores índices de presença no mercado mundial. 199 razões CR2, CR , (CR2) (CR5 (CR10 players HerfindahlHirschmann Herfindahl Hirschmann Herfindahl-Hirschmann crescimento (CR 58 58% 75 75% CR1 87 87% >1800 1800 200 201 140 1550, 1550 1550) 51 51% 71 71% 84 1508 56 56% 79 79% 94 94% 1830, 1830 1830) tempo 42 42% 61 61% 80 1152. 1152 . 1152) 70 >70% 85 >85% 90 >90% >3000. 3000 >3000 >3000) China Índia Indonésia 19 (CR1 5 7 8 >180 180 20 14 155 150 9 183 4 6 115 >70 >85 >90 300 >300 1 >18 18 2 15 11 >7 >8 >9 30 >30 >1 > 3 >3
Abstract In this paper we evaluated the world rice market behavior in terms of production, imports and exports, considering 1990 to 2019. We estimated concentration indices (concentration ratios of the two biggest (CR2), five biggest (CR5) and ten biggest (CR10) players, concentration quarters and Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index) and growth rates, we calculated medium-term projections and proposed an index representing the presence of countries in this market. Rice production in the world showed high levels of concentration in 1990 (CR2 58%, CR5 75%, CR10 87%, HHI >1800) and it became less concentrated in 2000 and 2010 (HHI between 1400 and 1550), reaching in 2019 CR2 of 51%, CR5 of 71%, CR10 of 84% and HHI of 1508. The word rice imports, which was highly concentrated in 1990 (CR2 56%, CR5 79%, CR10 94%, HHI 1830), underwent a dispersion process over time, reaching moderate levels of concentration in 2019 (CR2 42%, CR5 61%, CR10 80% and HHI 1152). World rice exports showed high levels of concentration in a few countries (CR2 >70%, CR5 >85%, CR10 >90%, HHI >3000). The highest scores of presences in the world rice market were from China, India, Indonesia, Thailand and United States. 199 CR2, CR , (CR2) (CR5 (CR10 players HerfindahlHirschmann Herfindahl Hirschmann Index rates mediumterm medium term (CR 58 58% 75 75% CR1 87 87% >1800 1800 200 201 140 1550, 1550 1550) 51 51% 71 71% 84 1508 56 56% 79 79% 94 94% 1830, 1830 1830) time 42 42% 61 61% 80 1152. 1152 . 1152) 70 >70% 85 >85% 90 >90% >3000. 3000 >3000 >3000) China India Indonesia States 19 (CR1 5 7 8 >180 180 20 14 155 150 9 183 4 6 115 >70 >85 >90 300 >300 1 >18 18 2 15 11 >7 >8 >9 30 >30 >1 > 3 >3