SUMMARY OBJECTIVE: February 2023 saw major earthquakes in Pazarcık and Elbistan, causing significant devastation in Turkey. Patients were transferred to hospitals in neighboring provinces, with multiple traumas—especially fractures and organ injuries—forming the main reasons for hospital admissions. This study aimed to examine earthquake-related injuries in pediatric and adult populations to understand differences. METHODS: This study analyzed 1,220 adults and 590 pediatric patients with radiological imaging out of 8,704 earthquake trauma cases. Radiological images were assessed independently by two radiologists. Statistical analysis using SPSS examined relationships between variables such as age group and injury type. RESULTS: Results showed 40% of adults and 64% of children had normal radiological findings. Cerebral and extremity traumas were most common in pediatrics, while adults showed more extremity, thoracic, and spinal traumas. Significant differences between adult and pediatric groups were observed in cranial fractures, thoracic and lumbar vertebral fractures, hemopneumothorax, lung contusions, rib fractures, femur and talocalcaneal fractures, and compartment syndrome (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Earthquake-related injuries may vary between children and adults. Due to children's more flexible anatomical structure, it is believed that earthquake-related injuries occur less frequently in children. In this study, head traumas were more common in children compared to adults. The rate of cranial fractures was significantly higher in children, with a higher incidence of epidural hematoma compared to adults. Spinal traumas were more frequent in adults than in children, attributed to children's greater flexibility reducing the risk of entrapment under rubble. Pediatric thoracic compliance being significantly higher than in adults often resulted in milder chest traumas. However, compartment syndrome was more common in children, with a lower rate of accompanying bone fractures compared to adults. No significant difference was observed between children and adults in maxillofacial, abdominal, and pelvic traumas. These findings provide insights for future disaster healthcare planning and management. OBJECTIVE 202 Elbistan Turkey provinces traumasespecially especially injuriesforming forming admissions earthquakerelated related METHODS 1220 1 220 1,22 59 8704 8 704 8,70 cases radiologists type RESULTS 40 64 pediatrics hemopneumothorax contusions p<0.001. p0001 p p<0.001 . 0 001 (p<0.001) CONCLUSION Earthquakerelated Earthquake childrens s structure rubble However maxillofacial abdominal management 20 122 22 1,2 5 870 70 8,7 4 6 p000 p<0.00 00 (p<0.001 2 12 1, 87 7 8, p00 p<0.0 (p<0.00 p0 p<0. (p<0.0 p<0 (p<0. p< (p<0 (p< (p

Resumen: El método de análisis estático no lineal ha facilitado modelos más cercanos a la respuesta estructural para fuertes movimientos sísmicos. Por lo tanto, se desarrolló una evaluación del desempeño sísmico de un edificio de sala multiusos ubicado en una universidad nacional pública de Chiclayo-Perú, aplicando el análisis estático no lineal, la cual contiene dos módulos semejantes de 3 niveles c/u con plantas irregulares. El sistema estructural de la edificación es de muros portantes. Fue construida en el año 2010 y fue diseñada de acuerdo a la E.030 (Norma sismo resistente peruana) y con la microzonificación sísmica de Perú. Para efectos prácticos, tomando en consideración la simetría de la estructura global, se evaluó uno de los módulos utilizando métodos no lineales que puedan simular el efecto de sismos. Este desarrollo incluía la aplicación de un análisis lineal para establecer los espectros de respuesta y a partir de ello ejecutar el análisis no lineal Pushover. En base a los resultados, se determinó el desempeño en las dos direcciones, tomando en cuenta los niveles de desempeño de la HAZUS y VISION 2000. Los resultados muestran que la edificación tiene un desempeño de "Seguridad de vida " y "Cerca al colapso " en la dirección X y Y respectivamente; además de ello, las derivas muestran una estrecha relación con los datos de desempeño, pues HAZUS demuestra que las derivas en Y no son favorables; por lo tanto, se determinó que es necesario que se ejecute un reforzamiento estructural de la edificación para mejorar el comportamiento desfavorable.

Abstract: The nonlinear static analysis method has facilitated models that are closer to the structural response for strong seismic movements. Therefore, a seismic performance evaluation of a multi-purpose hall building located in a national public university in Chiclayo, Peru, was developed, applying the nonlinear static analysis. This building comprises two similar modules, each with 3 levels and irregular plans. The building's structural system consists of load-bearing walls. It was constructed in 2010 and designed according to E.030 (the Peruvian seismic-resistant standard) and Peru's seismic microzonation. For practical purposes, considering the symmetry of the overall structure, one of the modules was evaluated using nonlinear methods capable of simulating the effect of earthquakes. This development included applying a linear analysis to establish the response spectra and, based on that, performing the nonlinear Pushover analysis. Based on the results, the performance in both directions was determined, considering the performance levels of HAZUS and VISION 2000. The results show that the building has a performance of "Life Safety" and "Near Collapse" in the X and Y directions, respectively. Additionally, the drifts show a close relationship with the performance data, as HAZUS demonstrates that the drifts in the Y direction are not favorable. Therefore, it was determined that structural reinforcement of the building is necessary to improve its unfavorable behavior.

Abstract The hotel industry faces a series of challenges and crisis situations that can have significant repercussions on its operations, profitability, and reputation. From natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes to economic crises and public health situations like pandemics, these contingencies can cause significant disruptions in hotel operations and affect guest demand. It is essential to understand how crises impact hotel facilities and what measures can be taken to mitigate negative effects and achieve a rapid recovery. The main objective of this research is to assess the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on the Brisas Guardalavaca hotel through a procedure that collects and analyzes relevant data to evaluate the direct and indirect impacts of the crisis on the hotel and identify its main strengths and weaknesses in this regard. Indeed, the results indicate a negative impact caused by the pandemic and identify areas for implementing improvement actions.

Resumen La industria hotelera se enfrenta a una serie de desafíos y situaciones de crisis que pueden tener repercusiones significativas en su funcionamiento, rentabilidad y reputación. Desde desastres naturales como terremotos y huracanes, hasta crisis económicas y situaciones de salud pública como pandemias, estas contingencias pueden causar interrupciones significativas en las operaciones hoteleras y afectar la demanda de los huéspedes. Es esencial comprender cómo las crisis impactan a las instalaciones hoteleras y qué medidas se pueden tomar para mitigar los efectos negativos y lograr una rápida recuperación. El objetivo principal de esta investigación es evaluar los impactos provocados por la crisis del COVID-19 en el hotel Brisas Guardalavaca a través de un procedimiento que recopila y analiza datos relevantes para evaluar los impactos directos e indirectos de la crisis en el hotel e identificar las principales fortalezas y debilidades de la instalación en este sentido. Precisamente, los resultados arrojan un impacto negativo provocado por la pandemia e identifica áreas para la implementación de acciones de mejora.

RESUMEN El estudio explora la vulnerabilidad sísmica en instituciones públicas del cantón El Empalme, Ecuador, enfocándose en el impacto en la operatividad y gestión económica ante desastres. Frente al desafío de una respuesta limitada a terremotos, se propone como objetivo el evaluar cómo la vulnerabilidad estructural y el deterioro de infraestructuras económicas comprometen la eficiencia en situaciones de emergencia, incluyendo el análisis económico de las pérdidas humanas causadas por esta problemática. Mediante una metodología mixta, que incluye encuestas basadas en recomendaciones del Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo, se busca identificar áreas críticas para mejorar la capacidad de respuesta y evaluación ante desastres. Los resultados subrayan la necesidad urgente de fortalecer la preparación y resiliencia, promoviendo el desarrollo de políticas y estrategias para una gestión de riesgo más efectiva y la protección de la población e infraestructura frente a eventos sísmicos.

ABSTRACT The study explores seismic vulnerability in public institutions in the canton El Empalme, Ecuador, focusing on its impact on the operability and economic management in the face of disasters. Faced with the challenge of a limited response to earthquakes, the objective is to evaluate how structural vulnerability and the deterioration of economic infrastructure compromise efficiency in emergency situations, including the economic analysis of the human losses caused by this problem. Through a mixed methodology, which includes surveys based on recommendations of the United Nations Development Program, it seeks to identify critical areas to improve disaster response and assessment capacity. The results underscore the urgent need to strengthen preparedness and resilience, promoting the development of policies and strategies for more effective risk management and the protection of the population and infrastructure against seismic events.

Resumen En América Latina se ha popularizado el uso de muros de concreto reforzado como sistema estructural para la construcción de edificaciones; sin embargo, este sistema se caracteriza por ser de baja ductilidad por lo cual su desempeño se ha visto comprometido durante diferentes sismos ocurridos en los últi-mos años. Esta investigación toma tres edificios reales con estructuras de muros en concreto reforzado, localizados en zonas de sismicidad alta y en un suelo tipo D, los cuales se diseñan según la normativa colombiana. Adicionalmente, se crean modelos numéricos no lineales para evaluar el comportamiento sísmico de los edificios ante sismos reales. Este mismo procedimiento es repetido para los tres edificios dotándolos con aisladores sísmicos y comparando su desempeño sísmico con el obtenido de los aná-lisis de los edificios de base fija. Los resultados muestran que se mejora el desempeño de la estructura aislada ante la ocurrencia de los sismos pasando de un nivel de desempeño de protección de la vida a uno de ocupación inmediata, mientras se obtiene una reducción de hasta un 50% del acero de refuerzo y de hasta un 100% del uso de elementos de borde comparado con los edificios diseñados con base fija, conservando las ventajas constructivas y arquitectónicas del sistema de muros.1 Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales, Colombia2University School for Advanced Studies IUSS Pavia, Italia.

Abstract The use of reinforced concrete walls has become popular in Latin America as a structural system for the construction of residential buildings. However, this system is characterized by a low ductility capacity, compromising its seismic performance during the last strong earthquakes. To improve the seismic performance of reinforced concrete walls, building codes have increased the design requirements such as augmenting the use of boundary elements, larger cross sections and safety factors. These new requirements lead to higher building costs without assuring obtaining higher levels of seismic performance, becoming necessary the implementation of novel technologies that allow the improvement of the seismic performance of this structural system. Seismic isolation allows for reducing the seismic demand on the structure and increasing the seismic performance without incurring larger design values. This study uses three real buildings composed of reinforced concrete walls located in a high seismic region and soil type D, designed based on the Colombian building code. Nonlinear models of these three buildings were generated to evaluate the seismic response under actual ground motions. The three buildings were then redesigned using seismic isolation and the same analysis procedure was carried out to obtain the seismic response of the isolated buildings, comparing the results with those of the fixed base. The results show that the seismically isolated buildings exhibited a higher seismic performance, moving from a life safety performance level of the fixed-base buildings to an immediate occupancy performance level. In addition, the isolated buildings required up to 50% less reinforced steel and up to 100% fewer boundary elements compared to the fixed-base buildings, while keeping the architectural and building advantages of the wall structural system.

Abstract Due to collapse of buildings, the earthquakes in India and other countries have resulted in the death of people and damage to property. While it is impossible to prevent earthquakes, it is possible to lessen the damage they cause to existing structures by taking the necessary measures. It becomes crucial to perform an assessment first, then identify the weak members, and finally, carry out the necessary strengthening. Using pushover analysis, this study aims to evaluate the existing R.C. building in Zone-III. The analysis research shows the building’s performance levels, component behaviour, failure mechanism, and hinge formation. Externally wrapped GFRP sheets were used to strengthen the existing member’s deficiency. buildings property measures first members finally strengthening RC R C R.C ZoneIII. ZoneIII Zone III. III Zone-III s levels behaviour mechanism formation member deficiency

Resumen Desde los inicios de la ocupación española en el Perú en el siglo XVI y tras el proceso de transculturización, una gran variedad de muros, arcos y bóvedas se construyeron con tamaños similares a los ejecutados en la península Ibérica. Al inicio, estas obras fueron hechas con ladrillo, piedra y adobe; sin embargo, con los frecuentes sismos y terremotos que hicieron colapsar gran parte de estas edificaciones, se evidenció la falta de previsión constructiva de los alarifes españoles. Por tanto, se tuvo que recurrir a la quincha, material hecho de entramados de madera rolliza, caña, y cubierta de barro que fuera utilizado en la construcción de viviendas y centros administrativos prehispánicos. La presente investigación muestra los resultados de un trabajo de campo, descriptivo, de revisión bibliográfica completa que tuvo como objetivo demostrar el origen y evolución de las bóvedas de quincha en el Perú; la capacidad sismorresistente del material, así como la eficacia estructural que tuvo en la construcción de las bóvedas y cúpulas de las principales iglesias de Trujillo. Los resultados permiten una mayor comprensión de la arquitectura virreinal y evidencian su utilidad ancestral ante el contexto moderno, así como su estética cautivadora que permite la identificación del trujillano con su patrimonio cultural.

Abstract Since the beginning of the Spanish occupation in Peru in the sixteenth century and after the process of transculturation, a great variety of walls, arches and vaults were built with sizes similar to those executed in the Iberian Peninsula. At the beginning, these works were made with brick, stone and adobe; however, with the frequent earthquakes that made collapse much of these buildings, the lack of constructive foresight of the Spanish alarifes was evident. Therefore, they had to resort to the quincha, material made of wooden grids, cane, and mud cover that was used in the construction of pre-Hispanic housing and administrative centers. The present research shows the results of a field work, descriptive, complete bibliographic review that aimed to demonstrate the origin and evolution of quincha vaults in Peru; the seismic resistance of the material, as well as the structural effectiveness it had in the construction of the vaults and domes of the main churches of Trujillo. The results allow a greater understanding of the viceroyalty architecture and evidence its ancestral usefulness in the modern context, as well as its captivating aesthetic that allows the identification of the trujillano with its cultural heritage.

Resumo Desde o início da ocupação espanhola no Peru no século XVI e após o processo de transculturação, uma grande variedade de muros, arcos e abóbadas foram construídas com tamanhos similares aos executados na península Ibérica. No início, estas obras foram feitas com tijolo, pedra e adobe; no entanto, com os frequentes sismos e terremotos que fizeram colapsar grande parte destas edificações, evidenciou-se a falta de previsão construtiva dos alarifes espanhóis. Portanto, teve que se recorrer à quincha, material feito de treliça de madeira roliça, cana, e coberta de barro que foi utilizado na construção de casas e centros administrativos pré-hispânicos. A presente investigação mostra os resultados de um trabalho de campo, descritivo, de revisão bibliográfica completa que teve como objetivo demonstrar a origem e evolução das abóbadas de quincha no Peru; a capacidade sismorresistente do material, bem como a eficácia estrutural que teve na construção das abóbadas e cúpulas das principais igrejas de Trujillo. Os resultados permitem uma maior compreensão da arquitetura do vice-reinado e evidenciam sua utilidade ancestral diante do contexto moderno, bem como sua estética cativante que permite a identificação do cidadão com seu patrimônio cultural.

ABSTRACT This research deals with the study of the various factors affecting the performance of circular shaped elevated water tanks made of reinforced concrete material with framed staging with filled as well as empty conditions due to past Indian earthquakes. Six ground accelerations have been picked out based on the strong motion parameters. Eight numbers of existing tanks have been selected with different storage capacity and structural configurations. Seismic performances such as base shear, base moment and hydrodynamic pressure are calculated using Response Spectrum method for the ground accelerations selected. The results due to all the ground accelerations are compared with that obtained by the elastic design response spectrum available in IS1893: part1 (2016). Eventually, it has been found out that the performances of each tank for every acceleration is highly influenced by the structural configuration, mainly for empty tanks. Hence, this research is intended to achieve desirable performances of water tanks during the occurrences of earthquakes by providing appropriate number of columns and horizontal bracing configuration. To ensure this, an experimental investigation has also been done on two models, tank 1 of capacity 105.86 m3 and tank 2 of 223.278 m3, to determine the dynamic properties of tanks. parameters configurations shear IS1893 IS part 2016. 2016 . (2016) Eventually configuration Hence models 10586 105 86 105.8 m 223278 223 278 223.27 IS189 201 (2016 1058 10 8 105. 22327 22 27 223.2 IS18 20 (201 2232 223. IS1 (20 (2 (

The frequent occurrence of disasters because of Indonesia's geographical location within the Ring of Fire calls for effective disaster-management efforts. With the issuance of Law No. 24 of 2007 on Disaster Management, the Indonesian National Disaster Management Agency (Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana or BNPB) was subsequently established. Keeping in mind previous disasters in Indonesia which occur in different regions, that is, Palu and Aceh Tsunami, Cianjur earthquake, and Mount Merapi, Indonesia's disaster-management law is general and lacks technical guidelines in addressing the needs of the various regions and the different contours of geography. This article aims to analyse existing Indonesian regulatory and agency problems in disaster management by conducting a normative and comparative approach between the disaster management policy in the United States of America (USA) and Indonesia. The authors chose the USA's disaster-management policy in particular as most comparative studies on disaster management law do not involve the USA despite the State's ability to provide a comprehensive and consistent policy in the midst of the decentralisation of responsibilities with the numerous states. The authors conclude that according to existing disaster-management laws in USA and Indonesia, the government is obligated to fulfil its citizens' rights in the event of natural disasters. Furthermore, noting the issues that exist within the Indonesian disaster-management system, Indonesia can adopt the best practices of the USA to improve its disaster-management system. Among others, Indonesia can learn from the USA in the fields of accountability and transparency amongst agencies, the development of Early Warning Systems, an improved system of interagency cooperation, as well as the provision of specific disaster-management assistance. CONTRIBUTION: The findings of this study are expected to serve as evaluation material and to improve government effectiveness in dealing with natural disasters.

Indonesia situated within the volatile Ring of Fire, faces recurring and devastating earthquakes that pose significant economic threats. The Government of Indonesia (GoI) has initiated a disaster risk financing strategy to address these challenges. However, the implementation of disaster insurance within this strategy remains limited. This study examined the GoI's disaster risk financing methods, assessed the effectiveness of existing disaster insurance practices, and proposed strategies for improving disaster risk reduction (DRR). Literature review was used to analyse disaster fund and insurance implementation. A building vulnerability simulation, based on Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) P-154 rapid visual screening, determined the appropriate financing strategy. State buildings were assessed using nine vulnerability factors and categorised by seismicity. The research found that disaster financing mostly relied on national funds to cover all disaster damages. Existing disaster insurance lacked clarity in defining insurable buildings, resulting in broad inclusion. Vulnerability assessments showed that each building type exhibited different potential earthquake damage levels. Consequently, insurance coverage is recommended for high-damage categories but discouraged for low to moderately vulnerable buildings. CONTRIBUTION: This study offered insights into Indonesia's current disaster risk financing and insurance landscape, and provides a strategic framework for optimising these mechanisms to better protect state buildings from earthquake-related risks.

ABSTRACT Neotectonic deformations in the active front of the Sierra de Comechingones are associated with reverse faults that are located in its western piedmont, generating discontinuous morphostructures parallel to the main fault that controls the mountain uplift. This contribution aims to report evidence of Holocene activity located in its neotectonic uplift front. The methodology followed entails obtaining oblique aerial photographs, a geological-structural survey, and the description of an anthropic profile using paleoseismological techniques. The results indicate that the La Esther fault is characterized by East-dipping of reverse movements with orientation N 350°-360° and has undergone activity during the Holocene, being the external flank of a piedmont foreland. It is considered that this fault would have the capacity to generate strong earthquakes.

RESUMEN Las deformaciones neotectónicas en el borde activo de la Sierra de Comechingones están asociadas a fallas inversas que se ubican en su piedemonte, generando morfoestructuras discontinuas y paralelas a la falla principal que controla el levantamiento serrano. El objetivo de esta contribución es reportar evidencia de actividad holocena asociada a una falla de la zona frontal activa del piedemonte occidental de la Sierra de Comechingones. La metodología seguida fue la toma de fotografías aéreas oblicuas, el relevamiento geológico-estructural y la descripción de un perfil antrópico utilizando técnicas paleosismológicas. Los resultados indican que la falla La Esther es de movimiento inverso, con orientación N 350°-360° e inclinación al este, ha tenido actividad durante el Holoceno y es el flanco externo de un piedmont foreland. Se considera que esta falla tendría capacidad para generar fuertes terremotos.

Summary This review reports on the work carried out in the From Space to Data: Smart Survey Methods in Architecture and Archaeology course, taught by Hungarian specialists Dr. Zsolt Vasáros and Master Mór Bendegúz Takáts, from January 9 to 18, 2023 at the Museo Nacional de Historia (MNH), Castillo de Chapultepec (National Museum of History, Chapultepec Castle), and organized by the Coordinación Nacional de Monumentos Históricos (CNMH, National Coordination of Historical Monuments, Mexico) within the framework of the Technical Contribution Agreement signed between the governments of Mexico and Hungary in 2020. The course was attended by 27 participants: archaeologists and architects affiliated with different work centers and two guests from the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM).

Resumen La reseña que aquí se presenta da cuenta del trabajo realizado en el curso Métodos de levantamientos métricos y topográficos para arquitectura y arqueología (From Space to Data: Smart Survey Methods in Architecture and Archaeology), que del 9 al 18 de enero de 2023 impartieron en el Museo Nacional de Historia (MNH), Castillo de Chapultepec, los especialistas húngaros doctor Zsolt Vasáros y maestro Mór Bendegúz Takáts, organizado por la Coordinación Nacional de Monumentos Históricos (CNMH) en el marco del Acuerdo de Aportación Técnica firmado entre los gobiernos de México y Hungría en 2020. Asistieron 27 participantes, arqueólogos y arquitectos adscritos a distintos centros de trabajo del Instituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia (INAH) y dos invitados de la Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM).

Resumen Se evaluaron potenciales manifestaciones superficiales de licuación por medio de índices de severidad a escala regional para la zona de Jacó, utilizando información generada por quince sondeos CPTu, estimando la demanda sísmica de manera determinista para veinticuatro escenarios, para aceleraciones esperadas a partir de ecuaciones de predicción del movimiento del suelo para América Central, considerando sismos corticales y por subducción, tanto intraplaca como interplaca. Los resultados permiten identificar tres zonas donde se esperarían diferentes niveles de daño según la amenaza sísmica representada en los análisis por medio de la magnitud de un sismo y las aceleraciones que este podría producir, y priorizar así aquellas a investigar con mayor detalle para el desarrollo de proyectos privados, de infraestructura púbica y la ubicación de edificaciones primordiales. La utilidad de los resultados se basa en orientar a autoridades municipales y de emergencia a anticipar la respuesta ante la ocurrencia de un escenario de análisis u otro con condiciones intermedias, en conocer anticipadamente la distribución de los sitios donde el daño podría ser mayor para orientar los esfuerzos en cuanto a respuesta inmediata y recuperación. Se espera que los resultados de este proyecto, si bien preliminares, sirvan como insumo para la gestión del riesgo asociado a licuación por medio de medidas ingenieriles y de otra naturaleza para efectos de ordenamiento territorial y para el desarrollo de políticas públicas para el distrito de Jacó, como podría ser un plan regulador.

Abstract Possible surface manifestations of liquefaction were evaluated by means of severity indices at a regional scale for the Jacó area, using information generated by fifteen CPTu, estimating the seismic demand in a deterministic manner for twenty-four scenarios, for expected accelerations from ground motion prediction equations for Central America, considering crustal and subduction earthquakes, both intraplate and interplate. The results allow the identification of three areas where different levels of damage would be expected, depending on the seismic hazard represented in the analyzes by means of the magnitude of an earthquake and the accelerations that it could produce, and prioritize those to be investigated in greater detail for the development of private projects, public infrastructure, and the location of essential buildings. The usefulness of the results is based on guiding municipal and emergency authorities to anticipate the response to the occurrence of an analysis scenario or another with intermediate conditions, knowing in advance the distribution of the sites where the damage could be greater in order to guide the immediate response and recovery efforts. It is expected that the results of this project, although preliminary, will serve as an input for the management of the risk associated with liquefaction through engineering and other measures, for purposes of land use planning and for the development of public policies for the district of Jacó, as could be a regulatory plan.

Resumen La divergencia Kullback-Leibler, κ, es una medida ampliamente usada de la diferencia entre una distribución de probabilidad observada y otra distribución de referencia; κ=0 cuando ambas distribuciones son iguales, pero no tiene un valor tope que permita interpretar la significatividad de cualquier otro valor de κ. Usando como ejemplo el problema de distinguir cúmulos o vacancias en la ocurrencia temporal de sismos de sismicidad distribuida con probabilidad uniforme en el tiempo, se presenta un método de Monte Carlo para evaluar la significatividad de algún valor de κ, método que toma en cuenta el largo de la muestra. Este método y dos posibles valores de referencia son presentados usando la distribución de Poisson como ejemplo, pero pueden ser utilizados con cualquier otra distribución de referencia.

Abstract The Kullback-Leibler divergence, κ, is a widely used measure of the difference between an observed probability distribution and a reference one; κ=0 when the two distributions are equal, but it has no upper limit to help interpret the significance of any other κ value. Using as an example the problem of distinguishing clustering or gaps in the time occurrence of earthquakes from seismicity uniformly distributed in time, a Monte Carlo method for evaluating the significance of a particular κ value is presented, a method that takes into account the number of classes in the distributions and the length of the sample. Application of this method yields a probability according to which the hypothesis of the observed distribution being a realization of the reference one can be discarded or accepted with a quantitative degree of confidence. This method, and two possible reference values, are presented using the Poisson distribution as an example, but they can be used for other reference distributions.

Resumen Este trabajo tiene como objetivo estudiar las perturbaciones en el campo geomagnético (GMF), nivel del agua (WL) y presión atmosférica a nivel del mar (AP) asociadas a eventos sísmicos Mw≥ 6.6 en el arco de Scotia, en el Atlántico Sur. Registros GMF de los observatorios de la Red Internacional de Observatorios Magnéticos (INTERMAGNET), registros WL de las estaciones de mareas de la Comisión Oceanográfica Intergubernamental y registros AP por hora de las bases de datos de la Oficina Global de Modelado y Asimilación de la Administración Nacional de Aeronáutica y el Espacio han sido analizadas en el área de estudio. Para el análisis de perturbaciones geomagnéticas se consideró la componente horizontal GMF, la cual es más susceptible a variaciones. Para el análisis WL, se calculó la discrepancia (residuo) entre la serie temporal WL de las estaciones de mareas y el nivel pronosticado de las mareas astronómicas, durante un período de 10 días antes y después de la ocurrencia de cada terremoto. Para el análisis AP se calculó la variación de los datos grillados entre 1 y 2 horas antes y después del sismo. El análisis de los datos geomagnéticos previos al evento sísmico, utilizando un filtro de paso alto y el método wavelet, mostró: a) altos rangos de energía en todas las frecuencias, incluso en las muy altas; y b) oscilaciones en el filtro con picos de amplitud de ± 0.2 nT, y con una anticipación y duración consistente con el método wavelet. En cuanto a los residuos WL calculados, hubo oscilaciones en las mayores amplitudes en los sensores ubicados más cerca del sismo, por lo que esas grandes amplitudes correspondieron a tiempos de llegada más cortos. El estudio AP mostró un máximo seguido de un mínimo local dentro de un rango de ± 0,3 hPa alrededor de la ubicación del terremoto. Mientras que el análisis GMF anticipó eventos sísmicos dentro de un rango de 6-2 horas, las técnicas utilizadas para WL y AP pudieron detectar terremotos Mw>7, asociándolos con la superficie ascendente/descendente del mar. Estas tres técnicas pueden ser utilizadas en conjunto para implementar un sistema de prevención o alerta temprana de eventos sísmicos o peligros relacionados tales como tsunamis y/o seiches en la región de estudio.

Abstract This paper is aimed at studying disturbances in the geomagnetic field (GMF), water level (WL) and sea-level atmospheric pressure (AP) associated with Mw≥ 6.6 seismic events in the Scotia arch, in the South Atlantic. GMF records from observatories of the International Magnetic Observatory Network (INTERMAGNET), WL records from tide stations of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, and hourly AP records from databases of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration have been analyzed in the area under study. For the analysis of geomagnetic disturbances, the GMF horizontal component (H), which is more susceptible to variations, was considered. For the WL analysis, the discrepancy (residue) between the WL time series from tide stations and the predicted level of astronomical tides, for a 10-day period before and after the occurrence of each earthquake, was calculated. For the AP analysis, the variation of data gridded between 1 and 2 hours before and after the earthquake was calculated. The analysis of the geomagnetic data prior to the seismic event, using a high-pass filter and the wavelet method, showed: a) high energy ranges in all frequencies, even in very high ones; and b) oscillations in the filter with amplitude peaks of ± 0.2 nT, and with an anticipation and duration consistent with the wavelet method. As regards the WL residues calculated, there were oscillations in the largest amplitudes in the sensors located closest to the earthquake, thus, those large amplitudes corresponded to shorter times of arrival. The AP study showed a maximum followed by a local minimum within a range of ± 0.3 hPa around the location of the earthquake. While the GMF analysis anticipated seismic events within a range of 6-2 hours, the techniques used for WL and AP could detect Mw>7 earthquakes, associating them with the rising/falling surface of the sea. These three techniques can be used jointly to implement a prevention or early warning system for seismic events or related hazards such as tsunamis and/or seiches in the study region.