Abstract: This paper explores the aggregate income risk offormal workers in Argentina, using a longitudinal database that contains information on approximately half a million formal employees in the private sector for a span of twenty years. We estimate quantile regression models to measure the sensitivity of real wages to the business cycle along the conditional and unconditional labor earnings distribution, thus capturing the asymmetry of aggregate economic impacts on wages. The main result is that income risk decreases along the conditional and unconditional labor earnings distribution, showing that individuals located at the lower part of the distribution are more exposed to the fortunes of the aggregate economy. In addition, low-income individuals suffer a stronger fall in wages when economy declines than the increase that their experiment when business cycle is in its expansion phase, which, in a very volatile economy like Argentina, implies a deterioration over time of their remuneration.

Resumen: Este trabajo explora el riesgo agregado de ingresos de los trabajadores formales de Argentina, utilizando una base de datos longitudinal que contiene información de aproximadamente medio millón de empleados formales del sector privado para un período de veinte años. Estimamos modelos de regresión por cuantiles para medir la sensibilidad de las remuneraciones al ciclo económico a lo largo de la distribución condicional y no condicional de los salarios, capturando la asimetría de los impactos de la actividad económica en las remuneraciones. El resultado principal es que el riesgo de ingresos decrece a lo largo de la distribución condicional y no condicional de los salarios, mostrando que los individuos ubicados en la parte inferior de la distribución están más expuestos a los vaivenes de la economía agregada. Además, los individuos de bajos ingresos sufren una caída en los salarios cuando la actividad declina mayor que el incremento que experimentan cuando el ciclo económico está en su fase expansiva, lo que, en una economía muy volátil como la de Argentina, implica un deterioro de sus remuneraciones a lo largo del tiempo.

Abstract This article aims to empirically examine the presence of budgetary political cycles in the fiscal behavior of Latin American countries, using panel data for the period from 1990 to 2017. The study reveals that part of the macroeconomic and fiscal outcomes is influenced by political-economic cycles. The initial years of governments are characterized by a reduction in relative GDP growth, a slowdown in inflation, and an improvement in tax collection and fiscal results. There is no evidence that governments use the expedient of amplifying expenditures, in a generalized way, during election periods, but only in a sectoral way. countries 199 2017 politicaleconomic economic growth inflation results expenditures way periods 19 201 1 20 2

Resumo Este artigo tem como objetivo examinar empiricamente a presença de ciclos políticos orçamentários no comportamento fiscal dos países da América Latina, utilizando dados em painel para o período de 1990 a 2017. O estudo revela que parte dos resultados macroeconômicos e fiscais é influenciada por ciclos político-econômicos. Os anos iniciais dos governos são caracterizados pela redução no crescimento relativo do PIB, desaceleração da inflação, melhora na arrecadação de tributos e dos resultados fiscais. Não há evidências de que os governos utilizem o expediente de amplificar despesas, de forma generalizada, em períodos eleitorais, mas apenas de forma setorizada. Latina 199 2017 políticoeconômicos. políticoeconômicos político econômicos. econômicos político-econômicos PIB inflação despesas generalizada eleitorais setorizada 19 201 1 20 2

ABSTRACT The effect of fiscal policy over business cycles has been a source of major controversy despite the growing empirical literature and international experience. This paper proposes an analytical framework that allows us to analyze the transmission channels of fiscal policy, updating the most recent findings after the pandemic. In this way, it aims to contribute to a more detailed understanding of some of the main mechanisms by which fiscal policy affects the economy. experience pandemic way economy

RESUMO O efeito da política fiscal sobre os ciclos econômicos tem sido fonte de maior controvérsia apesar da crescente literatura empírica e experiência internacional. Este artigo propõe um escopo analítico que permita analisar os canais de transmissão de política fiscal, atualizando as descobertas mais recentes após pandemia. Dessa forma, pretende-se contribuir para um entendimento mais detalhado de alguns dos principais mecanismos pelos quais a política fiscal afeta a economia. internacional pandemia forma pretendese pretende se economia

ABSTRACT Purpose: To analyze the behavior of the dividend distribution of publicly traded Brazilian companies according to the effects of the business cycles, comparing the stages of recovery, expansion, recession, and contraction (Schumpeter, 1935) with the stages of expansion and recession according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Originality/value: According to Schumpeter (1935), classifying the stages of the business cycle presents greater details to the NBER method because the four stages show different characteristics that are not observed when only the two stages of the NBER model are used. Design/methodology/approach: Information was collected from 243 publicly traded companies listed on the Brazilian Stock Exchange between 1997 and 2021 to achieve the research objective. Data were obtained from the Refinitiv database, using panel data regression models with random effects to analyze two hypotheses defined in this study. The hypotheses state that the behavior of the relationship between the payment of dividends and the stages of the NBER’s bearish (high) business cycles is different from the recession and contraction stages (recovery and expansion), according to Schumpeter. Findings: The results indicated the non-rejection of the hypotheses, reinforcing the importance of the analysis of the four stages of the business cycles and complementary form by investors, analysts, managers, and other users when analyzing the payment of dividends by publicly held companies at the different levels of economic activity in the country. Purpose recovery Schumpeter, (Schumpeter 1935 NBER. . (NBER) Originality/value Originalityvalue Originality value 1935, , (1935) used Design/methodology/approach Designmethodologyapproach Design methodology approach 24 199 202 objective database study NBERs s high (high expansion) Findings nonrejection non rejection investors analysts managers country 193 (NBER (1935 2 19 20 (193 1 (19 (1 (

RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar o comportamento da distribuição de dividendos das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto de acordo com os efeitos dos ciclos econômicos, comparando as fases de recuperação, expansão, recessão e contração (Schumpeter, 1935) com as fases de expansão e recessão conforme o National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Originalidade/valor: O método de classificação das fases dos ciclos econômicos de acordo com Schumpeter (1935) apresenta maiores detalhes em relação ao método NBER. As quatro fases apresentam características diferentes e não são observadas quando usadas apenas as duas fases do modelo do NBER. Design/metodologia/abordagem: Para atingir o objetivo da pesquisa, foram coletadas informações de 243 empresas de capital aberto listadas na Bolsa de Valores Brasileira entre os anos 1997 e 2021. Os dados foram obtidos na base de dados da Refinitiv, e utilizaram-se os modelos de regressão de dados em painel com efeitos aleatórios para analisar duas hipóteses definidas neste estudo. As hipóteses afirmam que o comportamento da relação entre o pagamento de dividendos e as fases dos ciclos econômicos de baixa (alta) do NBER é diferente em relação às fases de recessão e contração (recuperação e expansão) conforme Schumpeter. Resultados: Os resultados indicaram não rejeição das hipóteses, reforçando a importância da análise das quatro fases dos ciclos econômicos e de forma complementar por investidores, analistas, gestores e demais usuários ao analisar o pagamento de dividendos por companhias abertas nos diferentes níveis de atividade econômica do país. Objetivo recuperação Schumpeter, (Schumpeter 1935 . (NBER) Originalidade/valor Originalidadevalor Originalidade valor (1935 Design/metodologia/abordagem Designmetodologiaabordagem Design metodologia abordagem pesquisa 24 199 2021 Refinitiv utilizaramse utilizaram se estudo alta (alta Resultados investidores analistas país 193 (NBER (193 2 19 202 (19 1 20 (1 (

Resumen Se analiza de manera empírica la base de datos de la Fintech estadounidense LendingClub, la empresa precursora del mercado de préstamos digitales persona a persona. Se busca contextualizar al modelo de negocio a través de su base de datos y las variables implicadas en el perfil de riesgo de los participantes. Se toman cuatro ventanas de tiempo para capturar ciclos económicos y su impacto en el perfil crediticio de los prestatarios. Para identificar los perfiles de riesgo de manera analítica, implementamos la técnica de clústeres de K-medias, definiendo un patrón de segmentación de participantes en función de la tasa de interés de los préstamos y la calificación FICO (Fair Isaac Company). Los patrones de agrupación son constantes a lo largo de los periodos estudiados y permiten determinar niveles promedio de ingreso, tipos de préstamos adquiridos y proveniencia geográfica según perfil de riesgo. Pocos estudios contemplan toda la información disponible de la operación de LendingClub (2007-20203T); por lo tanto, este estudio también identifica la transición a la madurez de este modelo de negocio. Este trabajo logra dos objetivos: demostrar la evolución de los clientes y la plataforma a través del tiempo en cuanto se refiere a los perfiles de riesgo de los participantes prestatarios, y destacar el uso de clústeres de K-medias como una herramienta apropiada para el perfilamiento frente a otras alternativas analíticas.

Abstract We empirically analyze the LendingClub dataset, the pioneer of the peer-to-peer digital lending market. We aim to contextualize the business model through its database and the variables involved in the risk profile of the participants. We consider four different periods to capture economic cycles and their impact on the credit profile of borrowers. We implement K-Means Clustering Analysis to analytically define a segmentation pattern for participants based on the interest rate of the loans and the FICO (Fair Isaac Company) score. The clusters are constant throughout the periods studied and allow to detect average income levels, issued loans destination and borrower geographic origin according to risk profile. Few studies contemplate all the information available for the LendingClub operation (2007-2020Q3), therefore, this study illustrates how this business model has transitioned to maturity. This work achieves two objectives: to demonstrate the evolution of clients and the platform over time in terms of the risk profiles of participating borrowers, and to highlight the use of K-Means Clustering as an appropriate tool for profiling against to other analytical alternatives.

Abstract South-South and Triangular Cooperation (SSCyT) has gained prominence in the international cooperation scenario, facilitating regional and global collaboration to address several challenges in the international arena. The article has a double purpose. First, it describes and analyzes the evolution, trends, and results of CSSyT in Latin America between 2007 and 2021, focusing on the health and the environment sectors. Secondly, it analyzes the contribution of CSSyT to the mainstreaming of approaches and agendas. To meet this objective, a qualitative methodology was applied, based on secondary sources. For this purpose, documents and reports on CSSyT in Latin America were studied, besides analyzing the data available for this period published by the Ibero-American General Secretariat (SEGIB). The evolution of CSSyT in Latin America was analyzed during the period 2007-2021, highlighting its adaptation to challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change. Cycles of growth and decline were identified in the CSSyT during that time, in a dynamic evolution, related to economic and political factors, and the COVID-19 pandemic. This study also highlights the importance of CSSyT in Latin America, which contributes to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals and promotes more equitable and sustainable development in health and the environment. In this context,not only the recipient countries are benefited, but also cooperating countries, moving away from a vertical logic and promoting a comprehensive approach to deal with regional and global challenges.

Resumen La Cooperación Sur-Sur y Triangular (CSSyT) ha adquirido, cada vez, mayor relevancia en el escenario de la cooperación internacional, facilitando la colaboración regional y global para abordar desafíos en los más diversos asuntos del quehacer internacional. En ese sentido, este artículo tiene un doble propósito. En primer lugar, describir y analizar la evolución, tendencias y resultados de la CSSyT en América Latina entre 2007 y 2021, con foco en salud y medioambiente. En segundo lugar, analizar su contribución en la transversalización de enfoques y agendas. Para el cumplimiento de los objetivos, se siguió una metodología cualitativa, basada en datos secundarios. Para ello se estudiaron documentos e informes sobre CSSyT en América Latina y se realizó un análisis utilizando los datos disponibles para este período, publicados por la Secretaría General Iberoamericana (SEGIB). Se analizó la evolución de la CSSyT en América Latina durante el período 2007 2021, destacando su adaptación a desafíos como la pandemia de COVID-19 y el cambio climático. Se identificaron ciclos de crecimiento y declive en la CSSyT durante el período, en una evolución dinámica, relacionada con factores económicos y políticos, además de la pandemia del COVID-19. En el cumplimiento de ese objetivo, este estudio también resalta la importancia de la CSSyT en América Latina, que contribuye al logro de los ODS, promueve un desarrollo más equitativo y sostenible en salud y medioambiente y no solo beneficia a los países receptores, sino que, también, enriquece a los países colaboradores, alejándose de enfoques verticales y promoviendo un enfoque integral para enfrentar los desafíos regionales y globales.

Abstract It is proposed to build an index about the financial cycles of the banking sector in Mexico, using performance metrics from the G7 and the ACP. This indicator is compared with the national economic and financial cycles, also the metrics behavior is analyzed before, during and after the financial Subprime and health COVID19 crises. It was found that the G7 Principal Component 1 (CP1G7) is an adequate indicator to measure the mexican banking system condition (recession or expansion), likewise, the ACP allowed to identify the variables that have the most impact in each period. There is not an indicator at national level about the banking sector cycles, nor a metrics analysis in crisis periods. The model does not include exogenous variables (economic or financial). In conclusion, both the CP1G7 index and banking metrics dynamics analysis are useful tools for the early detection of possible threats for financial stability.

Resumen Se propone construir un índice acerca de los ciclos financieros del sector bancario en México, usando métricas de desempeño del G7 y el ACP. Se compara este indicador con los ciclos económicos y financieros nacionales, así también se analiza el comportamiento de las métricas antes, durante y después de la crisis financiera Subprime y la crisis sanitaria COVID19. Se encontró que el Componente Principal 1 del G7 (CP1G7) es un indicador adecuado para medir el estado (recesión o expansión) que guarda el sistema bancario mexicano, así también, el ACP permitió identificar las variables que más impactan en cada periodo. No existe a nivel nacional un indicador acerca de los ciclos del sector bancario, ni un análisis de las métricas en periodos de crisis. El modelo no incluye variables exógenas (económicas o financieras). En conclusión, tanto el índice CP1G7 como el análisis de la dinámica de las métricas bancarias, son herramientas útiles para la detección temprana de posibles amenazas para la estabilidad financiera.

Resumen Este artículo se concentra en el proceso de transformación de la religiosidad cristiana durante la Edad Media entre los siglos XI y XV. Muestra cómo la religiosidad, ancestralmente ligada al valor de la tierra y a los ciclos de la luz comienza a cambiar a medida que el hombre logra obtener otros medios de subsistencia centrados en la valoración de su propia capacidad humana. Los cambios demográficos, económicos, políticos y sociales desempeñan un rol central, y la religiosidad se mueve al mismo ritmo que estos factores. La autonomía respecto de los señores feudales, el auge de las ciudades libres, la producción artesanal y el comercio influyen notablemente en la comprensión y expresión religiosa que se centra en las capacidades humanas. El artículo intenta que el lector pueda comprender el movimiento y los principales componentes de este proceso a través de algunos ejemplos tomados de distintas áreas geográficas. La cultura medieval, y, por tanto, la religiosidad, continuarán su camino de transformación. Las necesidades y tensiones irresueltas del período que se expresan a través de la idea de reforma de la Iglesia nos sitúan en la antesala del surgimiento de las confesiones en el siglo XVI, donde éstas encuentran nuevos canales de expresión.

Abstract This article focuses on the process of transformation of Christian religiosity during the Middle Ages between the 11th and 15th centuries. It shows how religiosity, ancestrally linked to the value of the earth and the cycles of light, begins to change as mankind manages to obtain other means of subsistence centred on the valuation of his own human capacity. Demographic, economic, political and social changes play a central role, and religiosity moves in step with these factors. The autonomy from feudal lords, the rise of free cities, craft production and trade have a significant influence on religious understanding and expression that focuses on human capabilities and the value of freedom. The article attempts to enable the reader to understand the movement and the main components of this process through some examples taken from different geographical areas. Medieval culture, and thus religiosity, will continue its path of transformation. The unresolved needs and tensions of the period which are expressed through the idea of Church reform, place us in the prelude to the emergence of the confessions in the 16th century, where they find new channels of expression.

Abstract Objective: we apply Blanchard’s model (1983) to Mexico. We analyze the accumulation of external debt and its sustainability. Methodology: We calibrate the model for the year 2019. Using the time elimination method, we determine the stable arms of the model. Results: we present three simulations that promote production. First, an increase in productivity causes the Proportion of External Debt/GDP (PEDGDP) to rise to 26.9%. Second, a decrease in the population growth rate causes the PEDGDP to increase slightly. Third, a decrease in the International Interest Rate (IIR) produces a large increase in PEDGDP, to 44.01%, sustainable level. We show that PEDGDP is very sensitive to IIR, which can produce over-indebtedness. Recommendations: the sensitivity of PDPIB to the IIR puts us on notice to have prudent macroeconomic policies. Limitations: the households lack restrictions on international credit. Originality: This methodology has not been applied to Mexico. Conclusions: The economic cycles through which production and external debt of Mexico, pass go hand in hand with the variation of the IIR, over-indebtedness will always be present.

Resumen Objetivo: Se aplica el modelo de Blanchard (1983) para México. Se analiza la acumulación de la deuda externa y su sostenibilidad. Metodología: Se calibra el modelo para el año 2019. Utilizando el método de eliminación del tiempo, se determinan los brazos estables del modelo. Resultados: Se realizan tres simulaciones que promueven la producción. Primero, un aumento en la productividad produce que la Proporción Deuda Externa/PIB (PDEPIB) aumente al 26.9%. Segundo, una disminución de la tasa de crecimiento de la población produce que la PDEPIB se incremente ligeramente. Tercera, una disminución de la Tasa de Interés Internacional (TII) produce un gran aumento en PDEPIB, al 44.01%, nivel sostenible. Se muestra que PDEPIB es muy sensible a la TII, que puede producir sobreendeudamiento. Recomendaciones: La sensibilidad de PDPIB a la TII, nos pone en aviso de tener políticas macroeconómicas prudentes. Limitaciones: los hogares carecen de restricciones al crédito internacional. Originalidad: Esta metodologia no ha sido aplicada a México. Conclusiones: Los ciclos económicos por los cuales transita la producción y la deuda externa de México, van aparejados con la variación de la TII, sobreendeudamiento siempre estará presente.

ABSTRACT This article focuses on the local actors that gave rise to what will be known as the saltpeter industry in Tarapacá, which would later be the industrial base of one of the most important economic cycles in Peru and Chile. The social structure of this Peruvian province is analyzed, which -before the expropriation process of this industry- made possible the formation of mining guilds based on kinship networks which, in turn, were the ones that for half a century carried out the activity of searching and implementing the first saltpeter ‘oficinas de Parada’. The transformation of the province of Tarapacá from a marginalized and peripheral territory within the department of Moquegua, politically and administratively dependent on Tacna, to a coastal province, with autonomy and economic projection in the 1860s. The demographic, political, sociological and cultural structural change from the industrial boom and the process of expropriation of this industry in the 1870s is also observed.

RESUMEN Este artículo se enfoca en los actores locales que dieron origen a lo que se conocerá como la industria del salitre en Tarapacá, la que sería posteriormente la base industrial de uno de los ciclos económicos más importantes de Perú y Chile. Se analiza la estructura social de esa provincia peruana que -antes el proceso de expropiación de esa industria- posibilitó la formación de gremios mineros basados en redes de parentesco que, a su vez, fueron los que durante medio siglo realizaron la actividad de catear y plantificar las primeras oficinas salitreras de Parada. Se describe la transformación de la provincia de Tarapacá de un territorio marginalizado y periférico dentro del departamento de Moquegua, dependiente política y administrativamente de Tacna, a una provincia litoral, con autonomía y proyección económica en la década de 1860. También se observa el cambio estructural demográfico, político, sociológico y cultural a partir del boom industrial y del proceso de expropiación de esta industria en la década de 1870.

ABSTRACT Healthcare financing is attracting widespread interest due to the coronavirus pandemic. This study aims to assess federal public healthcare financing in Brazil in the light of a legal framework for minimum spending on health and the effects of economic cycles and crises. A literature review showed that public healthcare funding should increase during crises, which is contrary to what fiscal austerity policies postulate. Different formats of fiscal rules for minimum spending on health are analyzed based on the historical evolution of healthcare financing in Brazil. A simulation shows that linking this spending rule to GDP (and especially to current revenue) gives a pro-cyclical character to healthcare financing, which can make it difficult to guarantee health rights in times of crisis. Thus, a debate arises about the need to revise the rule set by the Constitutional Amendment 95/2016 (EC no. 95/2016) and to establish a parameter for growth in public healthcare expenditure that eliminates its pro-cyclical characteristic and enables the needs of the country to be met after the pandemic. pandemic crises postulate revenue procyclical pro cyclical crisis Thus 952016 95 2016 95/201 EC no 95201 9 201 95/20 9520 20 95/2 952 2 95/

RESUMO O financiamento de sistemas de saúde tem atraído amplo interesse devido à pandemia de coronavírus. Este artigo propõe uma avaliação do financiamento do sistema de saúde público no Brasil para o governo Federal à luz da legislação para gasto mínimo em saúde e dos efeitos de ciclos econômicos e crises. A partir de uma revisão da literatura, é indicado que, em momentos de crise, o financiamento do sistema público de saúde deva aumentar, contrário ao que as políticas de austeridade fiscal postulam. Diferentes formatos de regras fiscais para o gasto mínimo em saúde são analisados com base na evolução histórica do financiamento de saúde pública no Brasil. Uma simulação mostra que vincular essa regra de gasto ao PIB, e, principalmente, à receita corrente, atribui um caráter pró-cíclico ao financiamento do sistema público de saúde, o que dificulta a garantia do direito à saúde em momentos de crise. Assim, emerge o debate sobre a necessidade de revisar a regra estabelecida pela Emenda Constitucional nº 95/2016 e definir uma regra de crescimento para o gasto no sistema público de saúde que elimine o traço pró-cíclico e permita que as necessidades pós-pandemia do país sejam atendidas. coronavírus crises literatura crise aumentar postulam PIB principalmente corrente prócíclico pró cíclico Assim 952016 95 2016 95/201 póspandemia pós atendidas 95201 9 201 95/20 9520 20 95/2 952 2 95/

Resumen (Introducción): Los estudios sobre gestión adaptativa en sistemas socioecológicos reconocen que los recursos naturales (p.ej., bosques) no se encuentran aislados, sino entretejidos en sus ecosistemas con componentes sociales, institucionales, económicos y políticos. Este estudio aborda la gestión adaptativa a partir del aprovechamiento de las palmas camedor (Chamaedorea quezalteca), en la Reserva de la Biosfera La Sepultura Chiapas, México. El recurso de las palmas camedor es considerado como el producto forestal no maderable más aprovechado por comunidades rurales e indígenas de América Central. La contribución del estudio va más allá de los aspectos ecológicos de la palma, se abordó como un sistema socioecológico (SSE) complejo y dinámico. (Objetivo): Analizar la gestión de las palmas camedor a través de un análisis del ciclo de renovación adaptativa de los SSE. (Metodología): Se aplicaron entrevistas semiestructuradas a actores clave, un taller participativo con productores de palmas, y la aplicación empírica del modelo del ciclo adaptativo propuesto por Holling. (Resultados): Se identificaron tres etapas representadas por ciclos adaptativos: 1) una explotación no regulada de poblaciones silvestres de palmas (1960-2004); 2) regulación y participación local en el manejo y conservación de las palmas (2005-2014); y 3) cogestión y reorganización comunitaria para el aprovechamiento sustentable de las palmas (2015-2020). (Conclusión): El proceso evolutivo y adaptativo del SSE ha sido influenciado por los cambios intrínsecos en el desarrollo comunitario y por factores externos, como el mercado internacional de las palmas; políticas públicas; programas de conservación y desarrollo, y la interacción de actores gubernamentales y no gubernamentales.

Abstract (Introduction): Studies on adaptive management in socio-ecological systems recognize that natural resources (e.g., forests) are not isolated, but are interwoven in their ecosystems with social, institutional, economic, and political components. This study addresses adaptive management based on the use of the camedor palm (Chamaedorea quezalteca), in the La Sepultura Biosphere Reserve Chiapas, Mexico. The camedor palm resource is considered the most used non-timber forest product by rural and indigenous communities in Central America. The contribution of the study goes beyond the ecological aspects of the palm, it was approached as a complex and dynamic socio-ecological system (SES). (Objective): To analyze the management of camedor palms through an analysis of the adaptive renewal cycle of SES. (Methodology): Semi-structured interviews were applied to key actors, a participatory workshop with palm producers, and the empirical application of the adaptive cycle model proposed by Holling. (Results): Three stages represented by adaptive cycles were identified: 1) an unregulated exploitation of wild palm populations (1960-2004); 2) regulation and local participation in the management and conservation of palms (2005-2014); and 3) co-management and community reorganization for the sustainable use of palms (2015-2020). (Conclusion): The evolutionary and adaptive process of the SES has been influenced by intrinsic changes in community development and by external factors, such as the international palm market public policies and conservation and development programs, and the interaction of governmental and non-governmental actors.

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between public revenues and the business cycle (product-elasticity) in Mexico over the period 1980.I-2018.III, allowing for possible structural changes. To do so, bivariate econometric models of several public revenues on the business cycle indicator are estimated. Our results suggest the existence of changes in those relationships that can be associated to modifications in the tax policy and variations in the international price and the exportation platform of oil. A major implication of these findings is that total public revenues are highly dependent on income and consumption taxes, something that should be taken into account in a possible fiscal reform along with the estimated magnitude of the relationships for the most recent period.

Resumen El objetivo de este documento es analizar la relación entre los ingresos públicos y los ciclos económicos (elasticidad-producto) en México durante el periodo 1980.I-2018.III tomando en cuenta la posibilidad de cambios estructurales. Para ello, se estiman modelos econométricos bivariados en los que los diferentes tipos de ingresos públicos dependen del indicador del ciclo. Los resultados muestran que efectivamente hay cambios estructurales en las relaciones estimadas que se pueden identificar con modificaciones en la política tributaria y con las variaciones en los precios y la plataforma de exportación de petróleo. Una implicación importante de nuestros resultados es que los ingresos públicos totales son altamente dependientes de los impuestos al ingreso y al consumo, algo que debe considerarse en una posible reforma fiscal en combinación con la magnitud de las relaciones estimadas para el periodo reciente.

RESUMO O objetivo desta pesquisa é analisar a influência que as políticas monetárias exercem sobre as decisões de financiamento das corporações brasileiras. Desse objetivo derivam 2 hipóteses. A amostra do estudo é composta por 220 empresas: 84 de bens de consumo, 89 de bens de capital e 47 de utilidade pública. Os dados coletados referem-se aos anos de 2009 a 2019. A metodologia empregada para a análise dos dados se dá por meio de regressões quantílicas e dos modelos de dados em painel, pela abordagem GMM. Segundo os resultados, pode-se concluir - à luz da teoria de market timing em consonância com a teoria austríaca dos ciclos econômicos - que as estruturas de capital das firmas podem ser determinadas pelos momentos de mercado definidos pelas políticas monetárias, de modo que tal influência é distinta a depender do setor no qual as empresas se situam na cadeia produtiva.

ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence that monetary policies have on the financing decisions of Brazilian corporations. From this purpose, two hypotheses will be derived. The study sample is composed of 220 companies: 84 of consumer goods, 89 of capital assets, and 47 of public utility. The data collected refer to the years from 2009 to 2019, and the methodology used for data analysis is through quantile regressions and panel data models, using the GMM approach. According to the results, it can be concluded-in the light of the market timing theory, in line with the Austrian theory of economic cycles-that the capital structures of firms can be determined by the market moments, as defined by monetary policies, so that such influence is different depending on the sector to which the companies are located in the production chain.

Resumo Nós acrescentamos à discussão sobre a transmissão dos ciclos de negócios, modelando a sincronização dos ciclos dos índices do setor bancário mundial, levando em consideração o comportamento variante no tempo e frequência específica das variáveis. Com base na coerência múltipla, coerência parcial, diferença de fase parcial e ganho parcial, encontramos regiões de coerência forte e significativa entre os parceiros do NAFTA e no núcleo europeu: França, Alemanha e Reino Unido. Em relação a esses blocos comerciais, também encontramos forte desempenho no período 2010-2012 em todas as frequências, período caracterizado pela crise da dívida soberana em alguns países europeu.

Abstract We add to the discussion on the transmission of business cycles, by modeling worldwide banking sector indices cycle synchronization, accounting for the time-varying and frequency-specific behavior of the variables. Based on the multiple coherence, partial coherence, partial phase-difference, and partial gain, we find regions of strong and significant coherency between NAFTA partners, and in the European core: France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Concerning such trade blocs, we also find strong performance in the period 2010-2012 in all frequencies, a period characterized by the sovereign debt crisis in some European countries.