Resumen El presente artículo analiza tres tipos de predicación no verbal (PNV) del dominio de la locación: locativas, existenciales y posesivas, de la lengua triqui (otomangue, familia mixtecana) hablada en el Poblado Miguel Alemán, Sonora, México (TPMA); con tendencia a expresarse tipológicamente de manera similar. Este persigue los siguientes objetivos: (i) definir la codificación de las PNV locativas, (ii) evidenciar los diversos mecanismos de enunciación de estas y, (iii) presentar sus similitudes y diferencias. Las PNV son unidades de análisis semántico y morfosintáctico (Hengeveld, 1992). Los datos son de tipo cualitativo provenientes de textos discursivos y elicitaciones, recopilados entre el 2019 y el 2023 en el Poblado Miguel Alemán, Sonora, México; pertenecientes a mis colaboradoras: Rosa y Hortencia Vázquez. En el análisis se obtuvo que las PNV locativas y existenciales se expresan con cópula cero y tres cópulas verbales. En contraste, las PNV posesivas se dividen en: genitivas, codificadas con la cópula me3 , y de tener, emitida con la cópula vaa32 . En TPMA, todas las PNV negativas documentadas se presentan con vaa32 , excepto las de posesión genitiva; la cual cuenta con características particulares.

Abstract This article analyzes three types of non-verbal predication (PNV) in the domain of location: the locatives, the existentials and the possesives of the Trique language (Otomanguean, Mixtecan family) from the Poblado Miguel Alemán (TPMA); with a tendency to be expressed themselves similarly in the languages of the world. This pursues the following objectives: (i) define the coding of locative PNVs, (ii) demonstrate the mechanisms of enunciate them, and (iii) present their similarities and differences. The PNV are units of semantic and morphosyntactic analysis (Hengeveld, 1992). The data is a qualitative type from discursive texts and elicitations collected from 2019 to 2023, they belong to my collaborators: Rosa and Hortencia Vazquez. The analysis found that locative and existential PNV are expressed with zero copula and three verbal copulas. In contrast, possessive PNVs are classified into genitives, codified with the me. copula, and of to have, emitted with the vaa32 copula. In TPMA, all the negatives PNVs registered occurs with vaa32 , except those of genitive possession, which has specific characteristics.

ABSTRACT A fortuitous observation of mate-guarding behavior of male Chrysoprasis a. auriventris is presented here. In our observation, a male hold onto the female's body using his forelegs and walks along with her while she lays the eggs into the trunk slits. While guarding the female, the male adopted aggressive postures and attacked rival males that approached her. We suggest that the mate-guarding behavior may explain the male's elongated mid and hindlegs in this species, under a functional perspective. Additionally, a new host plant association was recorded. mateguarding mate here females female s slits species perspective Additionally recorded

Abstract The objective of this work was to probabilistically identify susceptible seasons to the highest incidence of stenospermocarpic fruit in 'Palmer' mangoes, using univariate and copula procedures. Additionally, the impact of climatic variables on price fluctuations in the mango market was evaluated in the region of the Vale do Submédio São Francisco, Brazil. The normal, log-normal, gamma, and generalized extreme value distributions, as well as the Frank copula, were fitted to temperature and relative humidity data (2007-2018) obtained from the meteorological station of Universidade do Estado da Bahia. The adequacy of the distributions was verified using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Cramér-von Mises, and Anderson-Darling tests. The Frank copula is suitable for the joint modeling of the maximum temperature and minimum relative humidity. The occurrence of high temperatures and low relative humidity affects the price of mangoes. November shows a high probability of the simultaneous occurrences of high temperatures and low relative air humidity, which makes 'Palmer' mango orchards in full bloom (or early fruiting) significantly subject to extreme weather conditions that favor higher rates of stenospermocarpy in the harvests from April to May. Palmer 'Palmer mangoes procedures Additionally Francisco Brazil normal lognormal, lognormal log log-normal gamma 20072018 2007 2018 (2007-2018 Bahia KolmogorovSmirnov, KolmogorovSmirnov Kolmogorov Smirnov, Smirnov Kolmogorov-Smirnov Cramérvon Cramér von Mises AndersonDarling Anderson Darling tests or fruiting May 2007201 200 201 (2007-201 200720 20 (2007-20 20072 2 (2007-2 (2007- (2007 (200 (20 (2 (

Resumo O objetivo deste trabalho foi identificar, de forma probabilística, as épocas suscetíveis à maior incidência de frutos estenoespermocárpicos em mangas 'Palmer', por meio de procedimentos univariados e de cópulas. Além disso, o impacto de variáveis climáticas sobre a oscilação de preços no mercado da manga foi avaliado na região do Vale do Submédio São Francisco, Brasil. As distribuições normal, log-normal, gama e generalizada de valores extremos, bem como a cópula de Frank, foram ajustadas aos dados de temperatura e umidade relativa (2007-2018), obtidos na estação meteorológica da Universidade do Estado da Bahia. A adequação das distribuições foi verificada por meio dos testes de Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Cramér-von Mises e Anderson-Darling. A cópula de Frank é adequada para modelar, conjuntamente, a temperatura máxima e a umidade relativa mínima do ar. As ocorrências de altas temperaturas e baixa umidade relativa afetam os preços de mangas. Novembro apresenta grande probabilidade da ocorrência simultânea de altas temperaturas e baixa umidade relativa do ar, o que torna os pomares de manga 'Palmer' em plena floração (ou frutificação precoce) significativamente sujeitos a condições climáticas extremas, que favorecem taxas mais elevadas de estenoespermocarpia nas safras de abril a maio. identificar probabilística Palmer, Palmer , cópulas disso Francisco Brasil normal lognormal, lognormal log log-normal extremos 20072018, 20072018 2007 2018 (2007-2018) Bahia KolmogorovSmirnov, KolmogorovSmirnov Kolmogorov Smirnov, Smirnov Kolmogorov-Smirnov Cramérvon Cramér von AndersonDarling. AndersonDarling Anderson Darling. Darling Anderson-Darling modelar conjuntamente ar 'Palmer ou precoce extremas maio 2007201 200 201 (2007-2018 200720 20 (2007-201 20072 2 (2007-20 (2007-2 (2007- (2007 (200 (20 (2 (

Resumen Objetivo: Analizar la volatilidad dinámica entre principales bancos situados en México. Metodología: Se emplean dos metodologías alternas: i) DCC-GARCH y ii) Cópula-GARCH con ventanas móviles. Se utilizan los precios accionarios semanales de cierre de cuatro bancos en México: BBVA, Citi-Banamex, Banorte e Inbursa del 27 de enero de 2009 al 29 de octubre de 2021. Resultados: Se confirma que la correlación entre volatilidades de los bancos es cambiante. Limitación: La principal es que no se pudieron incluir más bancos debido a la evolución de los precios de sus acciones. Originalidad: La originalidad subyace en el contraste de resultados, a través de las metodologías propuestas se obtienen resultados similares y estos son más restrictivos conforme la metodología incluye una captura distribucional óptima sobre el comportamiento de los datos. Conclusión: Al existir patrones diversos de volatilidad entre los principales bancos en México, se puede promover la diversificación de portafolios.

Abstract Objective: To analyze the dynamics of volatility among the main banks in Mexico. Methodology: Two complementary methodologies are used: i) DCC-GARCH and ii) Rolling window Copula-GARCH. Weekly closing stock prices of stocks among four of the main banks are used: BBVA, Citi-Banamex, Banorte and Inbursa, from January 27, 2009 to October 29, 2021. Results: The results confirm a time-varying correlation. Limitations: The main limitation is that we have not been able to include more banks due to the evolution of their prices. Originality: The originality lies in the contrast of the results, but these are more restrictive as the distribution optimally captures the behavior of the data. Conclusions: We conclude that different volatility patterns encourage investment decisions that consider potential losses and promote porfolio diversification.

ABSTRACT Introduction: Pregestational obesity, especially visceral obesity, is associated with the development of complications for the fetus, the mother and the neonate. The analysis of the placenta is a key to understanding the development of these complications. Objective: To evaluate the influence of visceral pre-gestational obesity on the placental and fetal development in rats. Material and Methods: Female Wistar rats received subcutaneous injections of monosodium glutamate (4 mg/ g of body weight) during the neonatal period to induce obesity or NaCl 0.9 % (Controls). At 90 days of age, obesity was confirmed and at 120 days of life they were mated overnight with healthy males of the same substrain. Gestational day 0 was defined when sperms were found in vaginal smear. The day 20 of gestation, euthanasia was practiced for obtaining of placentas and fetuses. Placental biochemical, and structural variables and indicators of growth and fetal development were determined. Results: In the placentas of obese rats, reserve cells of glycogen, triglycerides content and the area of the trophoblast were increased. The area of maternal blood was decreased. The obese group also showed an increased placental index. Fetuses of obese mothers had smaller tail length, cranial diameters and ossification sites numbers. Conclusions: Pregestational obesity exerted a harmful effect on placental development, provoking fetal growth restriction. This may be due to a decrease in the maternal-fetal interchange of nutrients and oxygen because of ectopic accumulation of lipids in the labyrinthine zone.

RESUMEN Introducción: La obesidad pregestacional, en especial la visceral, se asocia con el desarrollo de complicaciones para el feto, la madre y el neonato. El análisis de la placenta es clave para entender el desarrollo de estas complicaciones. Objetivo: Evaluar la influencia de la obesidad visceral pregestacional sobre el desarrollo placentario y fetal en ratas. Material y Métodos: Ratas Wistar hembras recibieron glutamato monosódico (4 mg/g de peso corporal) para inducir obesidad o NaCl 0,9 % (Controles) subcutáneamente en período neonatal. A los 90 días de vida se confirmó la obesidad, a los 120 fueron apareadas durante la noche con machos sanos de la misma cepa. Se consideró el día 0 de gestación, la mañana en que se confirma la cópula por la presencia de espermatozoides en el lavado vaginal. El día 20 de gestación se practicó eutanasia para obtención de placentas y fetos. Se determinaron variables placentarias bioquímicas y estructurales macroscópicas y microscópicas e indicadores de crecimiento y desarrollo fetales. Resultados: En las ratas obesas, las placentas presentaron incremento de células de reserva de glucógeno, de TAG, del área del trofoblasto y disminución del área de sangre materna. También mostraron aumento del índice placentario. Los fetos de las obesas presentaron menor peso corporal, longitud de la cola, diámetros craneanos y puntos de osificación. Conclusiones: La obesidad pregestacional ejerció un efecto perjudicial sobre el desarrollo placentario, provocando restricción del crecimiento fetal. Lo anterior pudiera deberse a disminución del intercambio materno-fetal de nutrientes y oxígeno por acumulación ectópica de lípidos en la zona del laberinto.

Abstract In Chile, Lobesia botrana is a pest submitted to a campaign of eradication/contention. Its management uses mating disruption (CS) as a fundamental control tool which is usually indirectly evaluated by the suppression of male captures in traps and/or by the fruit damage reduction in treated fields. However, the goal of mating disruption technique is to avoid mating. The current study provides the bases to use the "sentinel female" technique as a direct and alternative method to evaluate CS efficacy by measuring the percentage of mating in females. In studies conducted in laboratory, the age at post-emergence copulation from the pupa and the dimensions of the bursa copulatrix in virgin and mated females were evaluated in adult females. Additionally, two methods of virgin females' confinement (females with a tied wing or females in cages with restricted access) were evaluated, measuring the respective % copulation when exposed to virgin males, which was contrasted with unconfined virgin females. It was determined that the females mate before 48 hours after mating with a male. The bursa copulatrix of a virgin female measures 0.9 ± 0.03 mm long x 0.2 ± 0.01 mm wide, while in a mated female it measures 1.1 ± 0.5 x 0.5 ± 0.3 mm, which constitutes an objective criterion to determine the female mating status. Virgin females were able to mate in all treatments; 100% of the unconfined females copulated, 92% copulated with a tethered wing and 64% in cages. It is concluded that the method of confinement in cages works to directly evaluate the efficacy of CS.

Resumen En Chile, Lobesia botrana es una plaga sometida a una campaña de erradicación/contención. Su manejo emplea la confusión sexual (CS) como una herramienta de control fundamental, la cual es habitualmente evaluada indirectamente por la supresión de capturas de machos en trampas y/o por la evaluación de la disminución del daño en fruta, en campos tratados. Sin embargo, el objetivo de la CS es la disrupción (evitación) de la cópula. El presente estudio proporciona bases para el uso de la técnica de la "hembra centinela" como método alternativo y directo para la evaluación de la eficacia de la CS midiendo el porcentaje de cópulas en hembras. En estudios conducidos en laboratorio se evaluó en hembras adultas la edad a la copula post emergencia desde la pupa y las dimensiones de la bursa copulatrix en hembras vírgenes y copuladas. Adicionalmente, se evaluaron dos métodos de confinamiento de hembras vírgenes (con un ala amarrada a una plataforma versus jaulas de acceso restringido), midiendo los respectivos % de cópula al exponerlas a machos vírgenes, lo que se contrastó con las hembras vírgenes no confinadas. Se determinó que las hembras copulan antes de las 48 horas desde el emparejamiento con un macho. La bursa copulatrix de una hembra virgen mide 0,9 ± 0,03 mm de largo x 0,2 ± 0,01 mm de ancho, mientras que en una hembra copulada mide 1,1 ± 0,5 x 0,5 ± 0,3 mm, lo que constituye un criterio objetivo para determinar el estatus de cópula de una hembra. Las hembras vírgenes fueron capaces de copular en todos los tratamientos; 100% de las hembras no confinadas copularon, 92% copularon con un ala amarrada y 64% en jaulas. Se concluye que el método de confinamiento en jaulas funciona para evaluar de forma directa la eficacia de la CS.

Abstract The spatial stochastic co-simulation method based on copulas is a general method that allows simulating variables with any type of dependency and probability distribution functions. This flexibility comes from the use of a copula model for the representation of the joint probability distribution function. The method has been mainly implemented through a non-parametric approach using Bernstein copulas and has been successfully applied for the simulation of petrophysical properties using elastic seismic attributes as secondary variables. In the present work this method is implemented through two other approaches: parametric and semi-parametric. Specifically, for the parametric approach the family of Archimedean copulas is used. First, the parametric approach is validated against a published case, and then a comparison of the three approaches in terms of accuracy and performance is made. The results showed that the parametric approach is the one that reproduces the data statistics worse and presents greater uncertainty with a lower computational cost, while the non-parametric approach was the one that best reproduces the dependence of the data at a high computational cost. The semi-parametric approach reduces the computational cost by 10% compared to the non-parametric approach, but its accuracy is significantly degraded.

Resumen El método de co-simulación estocástica espacial, basado en cópulas, es un método general que permite simular variables con cualquier tipo de dependencia y funciones de distribución de probabilidad. Esta flexibilidad proviene del uso de un modelo de cópula para la representación de la función de distribución de probabilidad conjunta. El método se ha implementado principalmente a través de un enfoque no paramétrico utilizando cópulas de Bernstein y se ha aplicado con éxito para la simulación de propiedades petrofísicas usando atributos sísmicos elásticos como variables secundarias. En el presente trabajo este método se implementa mediante otros dos enfoques: paramétrico y semi-paramétrico. Específicamente, para el enfoque paramétrico se usa la familia de cópulas Arquimedianas. Primero, el enfoque paramétrico se valida con un caso publicado y luego se realiza una comparación de los tres enfoques en términos de precisión y rendimiento. Los resultados mostraron que el enfoque paramétrico es el que peor reproduce las estadísticas de los datos y presenta mayor incertidumbre con un menor costo computacional, mientras que el enfoque no-paramétrico resultó el que mejor reproduce la dependencia de los datos a un alto costo computacional. El enfoque semi-paramétrico reduce un 10% el costo computacional respecto al no-paramétrico, pero se degrada significativamente su precisión.

Much of the soybean produced in Brazil is exported and, consequently, the domestic soybean price (R$) is greatly influenced by the price traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group) (US$). Therefore, to model the dependency structure between soybean yield and price, the exchange rate must be incorporated into the modeling. This study aims to model the dependency structure between these three variables using the Copula methodology, calculate the crop revenue insurance rates, and compare with the rates offered in the insurance market. The rates applied by the Brazilian insurance market are overpriced when compared to the methodology presented in this study with the incorporation of the dollar rate in the modeling, which could increase the problem of adverse selection exchange and hamper massification of agricultural insurance in the Brazilian territory. consequently R$ R (R$ CME US$. US US$ . (US$) Therefore modeling territory (R (US$ (US

Abstract The objective of this work was to describe the sexual dimorphism and mating behavior of Lobiopa insularis for the development of pest control and management programs. The morphological characteristics for separating males and females were described with the aid of a stereomicroscope. Mating sequence was recorded over 72 hours with a digital camera. There are differences between males and females in the last abdomen segments, and males maintain a guarding position after mating. The obtained data can be used in monitoring programs to precisely identify the sex of the insects, also shedding light on the ecological features of this pest and Nitidulidae. stereomicroscope 7 camera segments insects Nitidulidae

Resumo O objetivo deste trabalho foi descrever o dimorfismo sexual e o comportamento de cópula de Lobiopa insularis, para o desenvolvimento de programas de controle e manejo de pragas. As características morfológicas para separação de machos e fêmeas foram descritas com auxílio de estereomicroscópio. A sequência de cópula foi registrada por 72 horas com câmera digital. Há diferenças entre machos e fêmeas nos segmentos finais do abdômen, e os machos mantêm posição de guarda após a cópula. Os dados obtidos podem ser usados em programa de monitoramento para uma identificação precisa do sexo do inseto, além de lançarem luz sobre os traços ecológicos desta praga e de Nitidulidae. insularis pragas estereomicroscópio 7 digital abdômen inseto Nitidulidae

Abstract Spix's yellow-toothed cavies are rodents displaying high biological and farming potential. Knowledge of cavy reproductive aspects is paramount for satisfactory breeding. This study aimed to determine the gestation length and characterize the reproductive cycle phases of Spix's yellow-toothed cavies, also investigating potential male effects on these processes. The investigated animals were categorized into three groups: Gestational follow-up (G1), with a 5:1 female-to-male enclosure ratio; estrous cycle (G2), with a 5:1 female-to-male ratio with a male confined to a cage; and G3, consisting of five females and no male. Daily colpocytological examinations were performed, with the presence of spermatozoa on the microscopy slides indicative of copulation. G1 females were separated from the male immediately after copulation, with this being considered day "zero" of the pregnancy. G2 and G3 females were evaluated for two complete estrous cycles and qualitatively assessed through vaginal smears. The gestation length of the Spix's yellow-toothed cavies averaged 59 ± 2.24 days, with a continuous polyestrous cycle lasting 14.8 ± 0.73 days in G2 and 14.6 ± 0.75 days in G3. The proestrus phase was characterized by the dominance of parabasal cells, dyes, bacteria, and leukocytes; the estrus phase, by superficial cells with the predominance of anucleate cells with and without the presence of bacteria; the metestrus phase, by parabasal cells and numerous genuine cells, neutrophils, and bacteria; and the diestrus phase, mainly by basal, parabasal, and mutant cells, as well as high amounts of vaginal mucus, neutrophils, and bacteria. The presence of a male cavy significantly influenced diestrus duration, prolonging this phase, which is potentially attributed to female progesterone production effects. Spixs Spix s yellowtoothed yellow toothed breeding processes groups followup follow up G1, G , (G1) 51 5 1 5: femaletomale G2, (G2) cage performed copulation zero "zero pregnancy smears 224 2 24 2.2 148 14 8 14. 073 0 73 0.7 146 6 075 75 dyes bacteria leukocytes neutrophils basal mucus duration (G1 (G2 22 2. 07 7 0. (G

Resumo O preá é um roedor com elevado potencial biológico e zootécnico a ser explorado, sendo o conhecimento sobre os aspectos reprodutivos fundamentais para que sua criação seja satisfatória. Objetivou-se determinar a duração da gestação em preás, e a caracterização das fases do ciclo reprodutivo, verificando, se existe influência da presença do macho neste processo. Os animais foram separados em três grupos: Acompanhamento gestacional (G1), 5:1, proporção de fêmea e macho no box; Ciclo estral, 5:1, com o macho preso em gaiola (G2) e cinco fêmeas em outro box sem o macho (G3). O exame colpocitológico ocorreu diariamente, identificado o espermatozoide na lâmina como cópula. As fêmeas do G1 foram separadas assim que copulavam e contadas como dia “zero” da gestação. As fêmeas do G2 e G3 foram avaliadas ao longo de dois ciclos estrais completos, avaliados qualitativamente pelo o esfregaço vaginal. O período de gestação em preás foi de 59±2,24 dias, com um ciclo poliéstrico contínuo, com duração de 14,8±0,73 dias no G2 e 14,6±0,75 dias no G3. O proestro caracterizou-se pelo predomínio de células parabasais, intermediárias, bactérias e leucócitos; o estro, células superficiais, com predomínio das anucleadas com presença ou não de bactérias; metaestro, células parabasais e grande quantidade de células intermediárias, neutrófilos e bactérias; diestro, predomínio de células basais, parabasais e intermediárias e grande quantidade de muco vaginal, neutrófilos e bactérias. A presença do macho influenciou significativamente a duração do diestro, tornando-se mais longa, fato que pode estar atrelado a influência sobre a produção de progesterona na fêmea. explorado satisfatória Objetivouse Objetivou reprodutivo verificando processo grupos G1, G , (G1) 51, 51 5 1, 1 5:1 estral (G2 . (G3) diariamente cópula zero “zero completos vaginal 59224 59 2 24 59±2,2 contínuo 148073 14 8 0 73 14,8±0,7 146075 6 75 14,6±0,7 caracterizouse caracterizou leucócitos estro superficiais metaestro diestro basais tornandose tornando longa (G1 5: (G (G3 5922 59±2, 14807 7 14,8±0, 14607 14,6±0, 592 59±2 1480 14,8±0 1460 14,6±0 59± 148 14,8± 146 14,6± 14,8 14,6 14,

Resumen La reproducción sexual en animales es un proceso complejo que va más allá de la unión entre espermatozoide y óvulo. De hecho, la generación exitosa de la progenie depende, en gran medida, de una serie de conductas pre copulatorias específicas de la especie y el sexo, así como de interacciones físicas y moleculares que ocurren durante y después del apareamiento. Dichas señales e interacciones facilitan la localización, el reconocimiento y la atracción de la pareja, y aseguran la fertilización exitosa del huevo. Esta revisión se centró en los procesos comportamentales y fisiológicos necesarios para la reproducción en mosquitos vectores de enfermedades, Aedes y Anopheles. Se destacan trabajos recientes que han dilucidado los comportamientos pre-apareamiento de machos y hembras que conducen a una cópula exitosa y se describen los cambios fisiológicos y de comportamiento posteriores al apareamiento observados en las hembras, que facilitan, principalmente, la producción de progenie. Así mismo, se discute el papel de las moléculas específicas del sexo en la mediación de los cambios posteriores al apareamiento observados en las hembras apareadas de Aedes y Anopheles. Finalmente, se da una descripción general de cómo los factores ambientales (por ejemplo, la temperatura, el estado nutricional o la composición del microbioma) pueden influir en la fertilidad de los adultos.

Abstract Sexual reproduction in animals is more than the union of sperm and eggs, as the successful generation of progeny requires a series of interactions, e.g., behavioral, physical, and molecular, between males and females to ensure that a spermatozoon will ultimately fertilize an egg. Thus, reproduction is a complex process in which species- and sex-specific behavioral cues are required for the localization, recognition, and attraction of a sexual partner, and post-insemination interactions between male and female molecules mediate physiological and behavioral changes in females necessary for optimal reproductive output. In this review, we have focused on the behavioral and physiological processes required for reproduction in Aedes and Anopheles vector mosquitoes. We highlight recent work that has elucidated the pre-mating behaviors of males and females that lead to a successful copulation, describe the post-mating behavioral and physiological changes observed in females, which primarily serve to facilitate the production of progeny, and discuss the role of sex-specific molecules in mediating the post-mating changes observed in mated Aedes and Anopheles females. Finally, we give an overview of how environmental factors (e.g., temperature, nutritional status, or the composition of the microbiome) can influence adult fertility.

Resumen: El estudio por seguridad hidrológica de los embalses requiere la estimación del hidrograma de su creciente de diseño. La manera más simple y aproximada para definir tal gráfica, es a través del análisis de frecuencias bivariado (AFB) para obtener el gasto máximo (Q) y el volumen (V), asociados a un cierto periodo de retorno conjunto de diseño. Las funciones Cópula modelan la dependencia entre Q y V, a la vez que permiten construir la distribución bivariada con base en las distribuciones univariadas marginales previamente adoptadas. El uso de las funciones Cópula implica dos ventajas, separan el efecto de la dependencia entre Q y V, de las influencias de las distribuciones marginales y son de aplicación simple. Se realizó el AFB de los 52 datos de Q y V anuales de las crecientes de entrada a la Presa Venustiano Carranza (Don Martín), del estado de Coahuila, México; aplicando las funciones Cópula de Clayton, Frank, Gumbel-Hougaard y Plackett. El enfoque práctico adoptado utiliza funciones Cópula de un solo parámetro de ajuste y selecciona la más adecuada con base en los errores de ajuste entre probabilidades bivariadas. Debido a su importancia, la búsqueda de las funciones marginales se realizó con la distancia absoluta mínima, a las seis distribuciones que expone el diagrama de cocientes L. Se detalla el cálculo de la gráfica del periodo de retorno conjunto de tipo AND. Por último, se citan varias conclusiones que destacan las ventajas del uso de las funciones Cópula en los AFB de crecientes.

Abstract: The hydrological safety study of reservoirs requires the estimation of the hydrograph of its design flood. The simplest and most approximate way to define such graph is through the bivariate frequency analysis (AFB acronym in Spanish) to obtain the maximum flow (Q) and the volume (V), associated with a certain joint design return period. Copula functions model the dependence between Q and V, at the same time, they allow the construction of the bivariate distribution based on the previously adopted marginal univariate distributions. The use of Copula functions implies two advantages, they separate the effect of the dependence between Q and V from the influence of the marginal distributions, and they are simple to apply. The AFB of the 52 annual Q and V data of the inflow floods to the Venustiano Carranza Dam (Don Martín), from the state of Coahuila, Mexico, was carried out; applying the Copula functions of Clayton, Frank, Gumbel-Hougaard and Plackett. The practical approach adopted uses Copula functions of a single fit parameter and selects the most appropriate one based on the fit errors between bivariate probabilities. Due to their importance, the search for the marginal functions was carried out with the minimum absolute distance, for the six distributions that the diagram of quotients L exposes. The calculation of the graph of the joint return period of type AND is detailed. Finally, conclusions highlight the advantages of using Copula functions in flood AFBs.

Abstract: The objective is to analyze dynamic dependency relationships in the country risk of Southeast Asia. Under the assumption of non-linear behavior, the research method uses the copula approach with asymptotic dependence and extreme values to study the EMBIs (Emerging Market Bond Index) of China, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri-Lanka, and Vietnam between February-2013 and March-2020. The empirical results confirm the variant changes in the dependency structures whose dynamics via rolling windows of 252 days. The findings allow us to identify the moments of change in the dependency structure of the EMBIs and reaffirm the regional supremacy of the Chinese market. The originality of the study, when contemplating characteristic elements of financial series in emerging markets, lies in the fact that it can serve agents interested in the preparation of diversified portfolios. The sub-regional nature of the sample used limits the external validity of the conclusions.

Resumen: El objetivo es analizar relaciones de dependencia dinámica en el riesgo-país del sudeste asiático, reconociendo un comportamiento no-lineal, con dependencia asintótica y valores extremos. El método de investigación emplea el enfoque de cópulas para estudiar los índices de bonos de mercados emergentes (EMBI, por sus siglas en inglés emerging market bond index) de China, Filipinas, Indonesia, Malasia, Sri-Lanka y Vietnam entre febrero-2013 y marzo-2020. Los resultados empíricos confirman cambios variantes en las estructuras de dependencia cuya dinámica se estima mediante ventanas rodantes de 252 días. Los hallazgos permiten identificar los momentos de cambio de tales relaciones, así como reafirmar la supremacía regional del mercado chino. La originalidad del estudio, al contemplar elementos característicos de series financieras en mercados emergentes, reside en que puede servir en la elaboración de portafolios diversificados. El carácter subregional de la muestra utilizada limita la validez externa de las conclusiones.

Resumen: El objetivo de la presente investigación es analizar la dependencia dinámica entre el índice bursátil americano S&P 500 y el índice bursátil mundial (MSCIW), así como, examinar si variables monetarias clave (tasas de interés de corto y largo plazo, diferenciales de tasas de interés y tipo de cambio) explican los cambios en dicha relación de dependencia. El periodo de estudio es de enero de 2000 a junio de 2016, el cual incluye períodos de calma e incertidumbre. La metodología incluye las metodologías de cópula dinámica y red neuronal perceptrón multicapa. Los resultados sugieren que existe un fenómeno de interdependencia entre los mercados bursátiles. Las variaciones en la relación de dependencia se explican por los cambios en el diferencial de tasas de interés de corto plazo (LIBOR 3 meses - T-bill’s 3 meses).

Abstract: This paper investigates dynamic dependence between the American Stock Market (S&P 500) and the World Share Market (MSCIW) and examines whether key monetary variables (short and long-term interest rates, interest rate spreads, and exchange rate) explain changes in this relation, during the period January 2000 - June 2016. The methodology includes a Dynamic Copula approach and a Multilayer Perceptron Network. Results suggest that there is interdependence between the American and global stock market and that the dynamic dependence is mainly explained by the short-term interest rate spread, 3-month T-bill’s rate and 3-month London Interbank Offered Rate LIBOR rate. JEL Classification: C45, C58, D53, E49, G15.

Résumé: L’objectif de cette recherche est d’analyser la dépendance dynamique entre l’indice boursier américain S&P 500 et l’indice boursier mondial (MSCIW), ainsi que d’examiner si des variables monétaires clés (taux d’intérêt à court et à long terme, différentiels de taux d’intérêt et taux de change) expliquent les changements dans cette relation de dépendance. La période d’étude s’applique de janvier 2000 à juin 2016, ce qui comprend des périodes de calme et d’incertitude. La méthodologie comprend les méthodologies de la copule dynamique et du réseau de neurones perceptrons multicouches. Les résultats suggèrent qu’il existe un phénomène d’interdépendance entre les marchés boursiers. Les variations du rapport de dépendance s’expliquent par les variations de l’écart de taux d’intérêt à court terme (LIBOR 3 mois - 3 mois de T-bill).

Abstract Multivariate probabilistic analysis of seismic hazard allows estimating the exceedance rate of vector-valued intensity measures of ground motion considering their joint probability distribution. Such an analysis is used for probabilistic seismic demand analysis of structures whose response is correlated with a set of intensity measures. In such cases, it is convenient to compute the exceedance rate of the response employing the exceedance rate of vector-valued intensity measures, in contrast to a univariate approach where the exceedance rates of a set of scalar intensity measures are calculated separately without accounting for their statistical dependence. In this work, a multivariate formulation is advanced for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of vector-valued intensity measures using copulas. The formulation is generic considering that the exceedance rate is expressed in terms of the copula of a vector-valued intensity measure, without assuming a type of parametric model for its multivariate probability distribution. The proposed formulation is used in an example to assess the mean exceedance rate of the maximum interstory drift of a 20-story steel building employing a regression model in terms of the spectral accelerations for the first two structural periods. The copula model of the vector of spectral accelerations was estimated using ground motion records from stations on stratified sand and silt deposits in Mexico City. This type of seismic ground motion produces a significant contribution of the response associated with the second mode of the structure. The exceedance rates obtained from the multivariate formulation were significantly less than those from a univariate analysis using the spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the structure as scalar intensity measure.

Resumen El análisis probabilístico multivariado de peligro sísmico permite estimar la tasa de excedencia de medidas de intensidad vectoriales del movimiento sísmico del suelo considerando su distribución de probabilidad conjunta. Dicho análisis se emplea en el análisis probabilista de demanda sísmica de estructuras cuya respuesta está correlacionada con un conjunto de medidas de intensidad. En tales casos, es conveniente calcular la tasa de excedencia de la respuesta utilizando la tasa de excedencia de medidas de intensidad vectoriales, a diferencia de un enfoque univariado donde las tasas de excedencia de un conjunto de medidas de intensidad son calculadas por separado sin tomar en cuenta la dependencia estadística entre ellas. En este trabajo se presenta una formulación multivariada para el análisis probabilístico de peligro sísmico de medidas de intensidad vectoriales usando cópulas. La formulación es de carácter genérico pues expresa la tasa de excedencia en términos de la cópula de una medida de intensidad vectorial, sin suponer para ésta una distribución de probabilidad conjunta en particular. La formulación se empleó en un ejemplo de estimación de la tasa de excedencia de la distorsión de entrepiso máxima de un edificio de acero de 20 niveles usando un modelo de regresión en función de las aceleraciones espectrales asociadas con los dos primeros modos de vibrar. El modelo de cópula de las aceleraciones espectrales se estimó usando datos de registros sísmicos de la zona de transición de la Ciudad de México. Este tipo de excitación genera una contribución importante de la respuesta asociada con el segundo modo de la estructura. La formulación multivariada produjo tasas de excedencia significativamente menores que los obtenidos con un análisis univariado usando la aceleración espectral para el modo fundamental de la estructura como medida de intensidad escalar.